WLI

Cattle futures gapped lower on the open Monday, pressured by Friday’s Cattle on Feed report and Headlines about a human case of New World screwworm being confirmed in the U.S. (see below). However, Cattle futures recovered much of the lost ground by the end of the session.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 63¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 61¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ lower, except for $1.05 higher in spot Aug.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $5 higher in the Southern Plains at $240/cwt., steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $245 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $245. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$7 higher in Nebraska at $385-$392 and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $385-$390 in a light test.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $2.24 higher at $244.25. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $3.39 higher at $386.17.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ higher Monday afternoon at $408.49. Select was $1.72 higher at $385.38.

Turning to the grain complex, Grain Corn and Soybean futures were mixed on Monday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 11¢ lower with some likely profit taking.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 349 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 47 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 86¢ to $1.03 higher through the front six contracts.

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Cattle futures plunged on the open Monday, pressured by more feedlot placements than expected in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, and especially due to the knee-jerk reaction to news that New World screwworm (NWS) had been confirmed in a U.S. citizen, who had been traveling in South America. As mentioned, futures recovered much of the lost ground by the end of the session.

“I think the main reason why the market response was limited is that there really isn’t a fundamental market implication of this announcement based on current information,” explains Kenny Burdine, Extension livestock economist at the University of Kentucky in Cattle Market Notes weekly. “Since this was a human case, and NWS has not yet been found in livestock, there is no expected supply impact. A demand response also seems unlikely, although both of those things could change if more is learned in the coming days. The announcement does serve as a clear reminder that NWS is a threat to the livestock sector and animal health officials will continue to monitor the herd and release sterile male flies in Mexico.”

As for more feedlot placements than expected, Burdine explains the 6.1% year-over-year decline was within the range of pre-report estimates.

“In truth, placements have been difficult to predict since late last year when Mexican feeder cattle imports were first halted. Over the last three months (May-July), feedlot placements have been down by 7.3%, and they are down 5.2% year-to-date.” Burdine says.

Moreover, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University explains the higher placement number in July likely reflects early marketing of some calves as producers seek to exploit current prices. In Oklahoma, for instance, he says feeder cattle volumes at auction were 27.2% more year over year in the past six weeks

“Higher than expected placements occurred despite the lack of Mexican cattle imports,” Peel adds. “Texas placements were down 25% percent year over year … Total feedlot placements in July were down 104,000 head, meaning that the decrease in Texas accounts for over 91% of the total decline in monthly placements.” 

Cattle futures surged higher Friday, supported by strong fundamentals and perhaps receiving a boost from stronger outside markets.

Live cattle futures were an average of $1.73 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.18 higher. Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $16.86 higher and Live Cattle were an average of $7.01 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on moderate demand in the North to moderate on moderate to good demand in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were mostly $5 higher in the Southern Plains at $240/cwt., steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $245 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $245. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $5-$7 higher at $385-$392.

Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $380-$385 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 5¢ higher Friday afternoon at $407.91. Select was 6¢ higher at $383.66. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $7.34 higher and Select was $12.90.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 547,000 head was 17,000 head more than the previous week but 62,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 18.9 million head was 1.4 million head fewer (-6.9%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 16.4 billion pounds was 679.9 million pounds less (-4.0%).

Turning to the grain complex, Corn futures were mostly fractionally mixed to 1¢ lower Friday with some likely week-end profit taking, but the lower yield outlook from the Pro Farmer crop tour could help Corn futures extend gains this week. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures were an average of 5’6¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Also on Friday, Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Friday, buoyed by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the organization’s annual economic policy symposium. Apparently, investors interpreted the remarks as increased willingness to reduce interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 846 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 96 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 396 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 10¢ to 14¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report indicated more placements than expected but was friendly overall.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.6 million head in July, which was 104,000 head fewer (-6.1%) year over year, but about 2.5% more than expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 36% went on feed weighing 699 pounds or less, 47% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 17% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in July of 1.7 million head were 106,000 head fewer (-5.7%) year over year, which was in line with pre-report expectations.

Cattle on feed Aug. 1 of 10.9 million head were 173,000 head fewer (-1.6%), also near expectations ahead of the report.

Cattle futures traded both sides of steady through Thursday but were mainly higher toward the close.

Live cattle futures were an average of 58¢ higher, except for unchanged and 7¢ lower in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher.

Keep in mind that USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon. Depending on who you follow, average analyst estimates peg July feedlot placements at almost 9% less year over year, July marketings at about 6% less and cattle on feed Aug. 1 at 2% less.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light to moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to light to moderate on moderate to good demand in the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $245/cwt. and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $245. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska are $5-$7 higher at $385-$392.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235 in Kansas, and dressed delivered prices were $380-$385 in the western Corn Belt. The previous week, FOB live prices were $235 in the Texas Panhandle.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.01 higher Thursday afternoon at $407.86. Select was 44¢ higher at $383.60.

Weekly net U.S. beef export sales of 10,100 metric tons for 2025 were also supportive. They were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 11% from the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly export report for the week ending Aug. 14. Increases were primarily for Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Mexico.

Grain and Soybean futures strengthened Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 7¢ to 8¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. And, Soybean futures were 12¢ to 19¢ higher, supported by a rebound in bean oil prices.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, as traders positioned ahead of Friday’s looming comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the organization’s annual economic policy symposium.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 152 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 25 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 72 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 55¢ to 73¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Stronger cash fed cattle prices and the recent surge in wholesale beef value helped drive Cattle futures higher on Wednesday.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.92 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.97 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady to $2 higher at $245/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$7 higher at $385-$392.

Trade in the western Corn Belt was light on moderate to good demand. FOB live prices were steady to $5 higher at $245. Dressed delivered prices there last week were $380-$385.

In the Southern Plains, trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand. FOB live prices in Kansas last week were $235, the same as in the Texas Panhandle the previous week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.35 lower Wednesday afternoon at $405.85. Select was $3.40 higher at $383.16.

Grain and Soybean futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally mixed. Soybean futures were 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower again Wednesday, once again led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 16 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 142 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 79¢ to $1.09 higher through the front six contracts.

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Fewer slaughter cows and longer-fed heavier, fatter fed cattle are reducing domestic lean trimming supplies, according to James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist with the University of Arkansas.

“Through June, combined beef and dairy cow slaughter is down 13%, translating to an estimated 10% decline in domestic lean trimmings production. Lean trimmings from cull cows and bulls are the primary source of 85s and 90s used in ground beef,” Mitchell explains, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “At the same time, fed steer and heifer dressed weights remain historically high. Through June, fed cattle slaughter is down 4%, but dressed steer weights are up 3%, adding more pounds of fat trim. The net result is a trim market with proportionally less lean and more fat.”

That helps explain the significant increase in U.S. beef imports this year, which are primarily lean trimmings.

For perspective, U.S. beef imports were nearly 737 million pounds more (33%) in the first half of the year, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service, in the August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“Imports of lean trim help balance the U.S. beef trimmings market,” Mitchell says. “Otherwise, an adjustment occurs through higher prices that ration limited lean trim across end users. This means higher ground beef prices for consumers.”

Cattle futures continued mostly higher Tuesday with continued power from fundamental strength.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher (5¢ to $1.55 higher), except for 42¢ lower in spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.49 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235/cwt. in Kansas, $243-$245 in Nebraska and $240-$245 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $380-$385. The previous week, FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle were $235.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.96 higher Tuesday afternoon at $407.20. Select was $2.62 higher at $379.76.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by yields estimated in early crop tours and favorable crop progress.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Tuesday with pressure from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 314 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 55¢ to $1.02 lower through the front six contracts.

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The sheer height of historically high cattle prices makes many on both sides of the trade understandably nervous, wondering when and how fast it might unravel. But, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University emphasizes the need to keep in mind the fundamental reasons for such high prices.

“Calf crops have declined the past seven years and are down 8.8% from the cyclical peak in 2018. The 2025 U.S. calf crop is the lowest since 1941,” Peel explains, in his weekly market comments. “The beef cow herd is at a cyclical (maybe) and multi-decade low and is showing little sign of rebuilding. The closure of the Mexican border adds to the ever-tighter feeder cattle supply. The slow decrease in feedlot inventories in the past two years has, to some extent, masked the fact that feeder supplies were continuing to dwindle.”

Moreover, Peel notes auction receipts suggest more available calves are moving to market earlier than normal as producers seek to take advantage of current prices. In Oklahoma, for instance, he says auction receipts were 29.2% higher year over year during the last four weeks.

“Changing the timing of the fall run of calves may briefly mask the actual feeder supply situation in the country for a few weeks,” Peel says. He explains feedlot placements will likely be larger through the third quarter than otherwise would have been the case. However, he says feeder cattle volume in the fourth quarter will likely drop noticeably.

“Stocker and feedlot buyers should not expect seasonally lower feeder prices this fall,” Peel says. “With still no indication of significant heifer retention, the implication is that tight feeder supplies must get tighter yet in order to begin the process that will lead to eventual herd rebuilding. Herd rebuilding is slow to start and appears to be slow-paced at this time. This suggests that cattle prices will move higher and remain elevated for an extended period of time with a peak that is still in the future.”