WLI

Cattle futures eased higher Wednesday amid chatter that cash fed cattle prices could improve this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $215-$220/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mainly $220 in Kansas, mostly $210 in Nebraska and mainly $208-$210 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $330 in Nebraska and $328-$330 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 91¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $363.81/cwt. Select was $2.34 higher at $353.12.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Wednesday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, with continued optimism about the Fed cutting interest rates this month. Some of the optimism came from the loss of jobs indicated in the November ADP National Employment Report^®. According to the report, private sector employment shed 32,000 jobs in November and pay was up 4.4% year over year.

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”

November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction, according to ADP.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 40 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 32¢ to 47¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Taking stock of global economic health, the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook suggests the global economy remained resilient this year in the face of trade uncertainty, although underlying fragilities remain.

The Outlook projects global growth slowing from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, before picking up to 3.1% in 2027.

GDP growth in the United States is projected to decline from 2.0% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. In the euro area, growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. China’s growth is projected to ease from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.

Annual headline inflation in the G20 economies is expected to moderate to 2.9% and 2.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, from 3.4% this year. By mid-2027, inflation is projected to be back to target in most major economies.

Cattle futures surged higher Tuesday with little apparent cause other than oversold conditions and perhaps easing headline pressure, at least for the day.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.75 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.41 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $215-$220/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mainly $220 in Kansas, mostly $210 in Nebraska and mainly $208-$210 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $330 in Nebraska and $328-$330 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.17 lower Tuesday afternoon at $364.72/cwt. Select was $7.10 lower at $350.78.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher, helped along by strong demand.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ higher with traders likely adding some geopolitical risk.

Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower as traders await confirmation of China making good on its deal to purchase more.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices were higher Tuesday, supported by cryptocurrency and AI stocks, which had led them lower the previous day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 185 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 137 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 69¢ to 73¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Agricultural producer sentiment increased in November, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which climbed 10 points from October to 139, its highest level since June.

The increase was driven primarily by increased producer optimism for the future, as the Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144, while the Current Conditions Index dipped 2 points to 128.

“Producers became more optimistic about U.S. agricultural trade prospects in November. That coincided with a rise in crop prices, which led to farmers’ improved expectations for their farms’ financial performance and an improvement in farmer sentiment,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

The Farm Financial Performance Index increased by 14 points to 92 in November. The percentage of producers expecting better financial results this year grew to 24%, up from 16% in October.

Producers were also more optimistic about future agricultural trade prospects in November. In response to a question included in every barometer survey since January 2019, just 7% of respondents said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to weaken over the next five years, down from 14% in October and 30% in March.

Cattle futures tried to hold recent gains Monday but were mostly lower as traders began the new week and month.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.21 lower (15¢ lower to $2.07 lower). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.68 lower, except for an average of 58¢ higher in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $4-$9 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $215-$220/cwt., mostly $2-$4 lower in Kansas at mainly $220, mostly $8 lower in Nebraska at mainly $210 and $7-$8 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $208-$210. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 lower in Nebraska at $330 and $12-$17 lower in the western Corn Belt at $328-$330.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $5.88 lower at $211.52. The five-area direct weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $13.98 lower at $329.38.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.07 higher Monday afternoon at $368.89/cwt. Select was $6.83 higher at $357.88.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Monday on likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices sagged lower Monday, pressured by cryptocurrency and AI stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 427 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 36 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 89 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 84¢ to 91¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University emphasizes the same fundamentals exist today as before the government shutdown and before the federal government’s announced intention to lower beef prices.

“The October and November Cattle on Feed reports show continued slow erosion of feedlot inventories with placements and marketings showing a more dramatic picture of tight cattle supplies,” Peel explains, in his weekly market comments. “October placements were the lowest in the data series back to 1996 and the 12-month moving average of placements shows that average feedlot placements the past year have been the lowest since July 2016.” 

Similarly, Peel says October feedlot marketings were the lowest for the month since 2015 and feedlot inventories have declined for 12 consecutive months. He explains feedlot inventories are expected to continue decreasing with smaller feeder cattle supplies, the absence of Mexican feeder imports and heifer retention still ahead.

“Steer and heifer carcass weights are higher again this year but not enough to offset declining slaughter,” Peel says.  “Fed beef production is down 2.7% so far this year and, combined with an 8.2% year-over-year decrease in non-fed beef production, leads to a decrease in total beef production of 3.6% year over year.” He notes beef production has been 5.8% less year over year for the past 24 weeks.

Cattle futures extended gains in the holiday-shortened trading session on Friday, supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices at the end of the week and more confidence in the ability of other Nebraska packers to pick up the slack from the plant closure in Lexington (see below). Apparently, some traders also were heartened by the U.S. Agriculture Secretary’s comments earlier in the week suggesting the southern border will reopen on a staggered basis to Mexican cattle imports when it does reopen.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $5.15 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $8.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $220/cwt., which was $5 higher than earlier in the week but $4 lower than a week earlier.

Trade in Kansas was moderate on good demand. FOB live prices were mostly $2-$4 lower at mainly $220.

In the western Corn Belt, trade was limited on moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live sales at $215. For the week, FOB live prices were $7-$8 lower at $208-$210. Dressed delivered prices were $12-$17 lower at $328-$330.

Trade in Nebraska was inactive on light to moderate demand. For the week, FOB live prices were mostly $8 lower at mainly $210. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 lower at $330.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.46 lower Friday afternoon at $366.82/cwt. Select was $4.46 lower at $351.05.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 501,000 head was 84,000 head fewer than the previous week and 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 26.7 million head was 2 million head fewer (-7.1%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 23.3 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.4%).

Corn and Soybean futures continued higher Friday, supported by positive demand, including Chinese soybean purchases.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher through May ‘27. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by tech stocks and growing optimism that the Fed will cut interest rates this month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 289 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 150 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 10¢ to 24¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although disrupted by the holiday, fundamental footing appeared to resume in Cattle futures last week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average $4.22 higher week to week on Friday. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $10.92 higher.

That was after the mostly limit-down session to start the week as traders reacted to Tyson’s reduced packing capacity. Various reports toward the end of the week suggested recently built packing capacity can absorb the losses, besides the fact that cattle numbers continue to decline.

Although negotiated cash fed cattle prices continued lower last week, they showed signs of strengthening toward the end of the week. For perspective, FOB live prices declined $16.66/cwt. from the week ending Oct. 13 to the week ending Nov. 23 at $217.41. Dressed delivered fed steer prices were down $19.16 during the same period at $343.36.

Wholesale beef prices continued to languish, with Choice boxed beef cutout value $4.66 lower week to week on Friday and select down $5.93. However, seasonal strength should begin appearing as the calendar turns to December.

Cash calf and feeder cattle prices continued their spiral last week, pressured by the massive volatility and market uncertainty mostly wrought by politics.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $19.20 lower week to week on Thursday at $321.96. That was $54.19 lower than the recent high on Oct. 16.

Cattle futures climbed higher Wednesday, suggesting a bottom may have been established.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.63 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.06 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in the North to inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $9 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $215/cwt., mostly $8 lower in Nebraska at mainly $210 and $7-$8 lower in the western Corn Belt at $208-$210. Dressed delivered prices are $10-$15 lower in Nebraska at $330 and $12-$17 lower in the western Corn Belt at $328-$330.

FOB live prices in Kansas last week were $222-$224.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.81 lower Wednesday afternoon at $368.28/cwt. Select was 42¢ lower at $355.51.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Wednesday, supported by an apparent slowing in farmer selling.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 9¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 314 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 46 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 189 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 52¢ to 61¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Last week’s USDA Cattle on Feed report indicated there were 4.36 million heifers on feed Oct. 1. That was 245,000 fewer heifers than a year earlier and the fewest for the month since 2018, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

However, David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University notes last year’s inventory included spayed heifers from Mexico.

“Over the April-September 2024 period, 266,559 spayed heifers were imported. So the decline in heifers on feed reflects no imported heifers from Mexico and any decline in domestic placements in feedlots,” Anderson explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The expectation is that fewer spayed heifers would have been imported this year compared to last year but, considering imports, the report doesn’t indicate much heifer retention.”