WLI

Cattle futures bounced back Tuesday, as traders absorbed news of Tyson’s plans to reduce packing capacity, and perhaps some latent reaction to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, which underscored declining cattle numbers.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.01 higher (5¢ to $3.25 higher), except for an average of 71¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.66 higher, except for $1.82 lower in away Nov. and no trend in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on good demand in Nebraska through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live sales were $8-$9 lower at $209-$212/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 lower at $330.

In the western Corn Belt, trade was light on moderate demand. FOB live prices were $7-$10 lower at $208 and dressed delivered trades were $12-$17 lower at $328-$330.

Trade in the Southern Plains was inactive on light demand. Last week, FOB live prices were $224 in the Texas Panhandle and $222-$224 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 40¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $370.09/cwt. Select was 42¢ higher at $355.93.

Grain and Soybean futures bounced higher Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains on Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 664 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 60 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 153 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 63¢ to 84¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Economic pressure on agricultural crops continues to challenge rural economies, according to the November Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI). Although the overall index increased 9.4 points from October to a weak 44.0, it remained below growth neutral for the ninth time this year.

The RMI ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral. It is based on a survey of bankers in a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Regional dependence on crop or livestock production shaded current views. About 32% of bankers indicated their rural economies were in an economic recession and 31% saw recession coming in 2026. However, 33% of bankers saw solid growth and no recession.

Among other key findings…

• Farmland prices sank below growth neutral for the 18th time in the past 19 months. Approximately, 58.3% of bankers expect farmland prices to fall in 2026, with an average decline of 3.1%.
• On average, bank CEOs expect 18.3% of farmers and ranchers in their area to record negative cash flow for 2025.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 27th consecutive month.

Cattle futures plowed lower Monday on Friday’s Tyson new that it would shutter its packing plant in Lexington, Neb, and decrease production in its Amarillo, Texas plant.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were limit-down $7.25, except for an average of $6.99 lower in the back three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were limit-down $9.25.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $208/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was inactive on light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $224/cwt., $4-$6 lower in Kansas at $222-$224, mostly $7 lower in Nebraska at mainly $218 and $7-$9 lower in the western Corn Belt at $215-$218. Dressed delivered prices were $10 lower in Nebraska at $340-$345 and mostly $3-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt at $340-$347.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $7.65 lower at $217.41. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $7.58 lower at $343.36.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 99¢ lower Monday afternoon at $370.49/cwt. Select was $1.47 lower at $355.51.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 585,000 head was 9,000 head more than the previous week, but 50,000 head fewer (-7.9%) than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 26.2 million head was 2 million head fewer (-7.1%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 22.9 billion pounds was 1 billion pounds less (-4.4%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed to lower Monday in lackadaisical holiday trade.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower to fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains on Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 202 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 102 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 598 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 86¢ to 98¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Tyson’s announced closure of its plant in Lexington, Neb., and shifting to a single shift at its plant in Amarillo, Texas will reduce industry slaughter capacity by roughly 7,000 to 8,000 head per day, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. 

“The exact impact will depend on forthcoming details, especially how Tyson will manage a one-shift plant,” Peel explains, in his weekly market comments. “Depending on the details, the reduction represents roughly 7.5% to 9.0% of total industry slaughter capacity.”

Even so, Peel says excess packing capacity will continue for the forseeable future.

“Tyson’s planned reduction in packing capacity may be nearly (but not quite) enough to balance the decrease in cattle slaughter since the peak in 2022. However, fed slaughter is expected to continue decreasing in 2026 and 2027,” Peel says. 

Cattle futures continued closed lower Friday, but off session lows. Pressure included the week’s softer cash fed cattle prices, news about U.S. tariffs being rolled back on Brazilian beef imports and Tyson announcing closure of its packing plant in Lexington, Neb.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 33¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 99¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $2.90 lower, except for unchanged in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.00 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Southern Plains at $224/cwt., mostly $7-$8 lower in Nebraska at mainly $218-$219 and $7-$12 in the western Corn Belt at mostly $215. Dressed delivered prices were $8-$10 lower in Nebraska at $340-$347 and mostly $3-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt at $340-$347.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ higher Friday afternoon at $371.48/cwt. Select was $2.80higher at $356.98.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 585,000 head was 9,000 head more than the previous week, but 50,000 head fewer (-7.9%) than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 26.2 million head was 2 million head fewer (-7.1%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 22.9 billion pounds was 1 billion pounds less (-4.4%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower with ongoing pressure from the surprisingly high yield estimate in the November WASDE. Corn futures an average of 7¢ lower through the front six contracts week to week on Friday.

On Friday, KC HRW Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher through Aug ’26 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower with lingering pressure from profit taking and farmer selling.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by increasing confidence the Fed will cut interest rates again this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 493 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 64 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 195 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 70¢ to 94¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Tight supplies and over-capacity finally caught up to one of the nation’s major beef packers.

Tyson Foods announced the closure of its beef processing plant in Lexington, Neb. as part of its plan to right size its beef business and position it for long-term success,” according to a company statement. No date was given for the closure.

Tyson also it will convert its Amarillo plant to one full-capacity shift and increase production at other company beef facilities.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s Cattle on Feed report as neutral to friendly with fewer placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.0 million head in October, which was 227,000 head fewer (-10.0%) than a year earlier. That was 2% less than estimates ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, feedlots placed 45% weighing 699 lbs. or less, 41% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 14% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in October of 1.7 million head were 148,000 head fewer (-8.0%), in line with expectations.

Cattle on Feed Nov. 1 of 11.7 million head was 260,000 head fewer (-2.2%), year over year, which was also in line with expectations ahead of the report.

USDA also issued numbers for what would have been the October Cattle on Feed report, which was unpublished due to the government shutdown.

September feedlot placements of 2.0 million head were 6.3% less, September marketings of 1.6 million head were 3.9% less and the Oct. 1 on-feed inventory of 11.1 million head was 1.1% less.

Cattle futures continued to unwind Thursday. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.01 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.92 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to limited on moderate demand in Nebraska and Kansas. Trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle.

Based on the last established trade, FOB live prices for the week are $4 lower in the Southern Plains at $224/cwt., mostly $7-$8 lower in Nebraska at mainly $218-$219 and $7-$12 in the western Corn Belt at mostly $215. Dressed delivered prices are $8-$10 lower in Nebraska at $340-$347 and mostly $8-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt at $340-$347.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 5¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $371.28/cwt. Select was 63¢ higher at $354.18.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 386 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 103 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 486 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 17¢ to 50¢ lowerthrough the front six contracts.

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Beef exports were sharply lower in August year over year ago, according to data recently released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

August beef exports totaled 83,388 metric tons (mt), down 19% from a year ago and the lowest since June 2020, impacted heavily by an impasse with China that has effectively locked U.S. beef out of the world’s largest import market.

Export value fell 18% to $695.5 million, the lowest since February 2021. While exports to China plummeted, shipments were fairly steady to leading market South Korea and trended higher than a year ago to the Caribbean and Central and South America.

Beef export value equated to $372.10 per head of fed slaughter in August, down 5% from a year ago. The January-August average was $400.16 per head, down 3.5% from the same period last year.

Cattle futures sagged lower Wednesday with pressure from lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices and sluggish wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.60 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.83 lower, except for 90¢ higher in spot Nov.

Presumably, USDA will publish the November Cattle on Feed report Friday. Pre-report estimates peg October placements and marketings 7-8% lower and Nov. 1 on-feed inventories about 2% lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were lower Wednesday. FOB live prices were $6 lower at $215-$219/cwt. in Nebraska and $4-$9 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $218 on moderate trade and moderate to good demand. Dressed delivered sales were $8-$10 lower in Nebraska at $340-$347. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades in the western Corn Belt at $340-$347. Prices there last week was $350.

Trade in Kansas was light on moderate demand with Live FOB prices $4 lower at $224.

Although too few to trend, there were also some FOB live trades at $224/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle where prices last week were $228.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 72¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $371.23/cwt. Select was $1.40 lower at $353.55.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures 7¢ to 8¢ lower.  KC HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 17¢ lower.

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Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with likely profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 131 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 13¢ to 23¢ higher through the front six contracts.