WLI

Cattle futures closed higher again Monday with surging wholesale beef values and follow-through support tied to USDA’s aggressive plans to combat New World Screwworm while leaving the U.S. border closed to Mexican cattle.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.31 higher (15¢ to $1.82 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.97 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in Kansas at $235/cwt., steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $243-$245/cwt. and steady in the western Corn Belt at $240-$245. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher in at $380-$385. The previous week, FOB live prices were $235 in the Texas Panhandle.

Wholesale beef prices continued to press higher Monday, helped along by packers restricted production. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.67 higher Monday afternoon at $404.24. Select was $6.38 higher at $377.14.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday. Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 34 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 59¢ to 69¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected feeder steer prices significantly higher, compared to the previous month, in the August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Based on recent price strength and fewer cattle for feedlot placement than previously expected, forecast prices increased by $31 in the third and fourth quarters of this year to $343/cwt. and $345, respectively. The estimated annual average price for 2025 increased $15.50 to $316.79. Prices are basis Med. and Lag. #1 steers weighing 700-850 lbs. selling at Oklahoma City.

Price expectations for next year increased even more. ERS raised estimated prices $41 in the first quarter of 2026 to $348 and by $38 in the second quarter to $350. Next year’s projected average price increased $38 to $350.25.

“With respect to the future number of placements that might be available in late 2025 and 2026, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service provided an initial estimate of the 2025 calf crop in the mid-year Cattle report. The

2025 estimate is 33.1 million head, a decline of 1.3% from the 2024 calf crop,” ERS analysts say. “The year-over-year decline confirms that a smaller pool of calves will be available for either retention or placement in feedlots in 2025. Based on the smaller size of the 2025 calf crop, the outlook is lowered for feedlot placements for late 2025 and early 2026.”

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current, ERS also boosted expected fed steer prices in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, projected weighted average five-area direct fed steer prices increased $12 for the third quarter to $238/cwt. and $11 in the fourth quarter to $240 for an annual average price of $227.06, which was $5.75 higher.

That was with beef production for this year estimated to be 262 million pounds less (-1%) than the previous month at 25.9 billion pounds, based on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights. The total would be 1.1 billion pounds less (-3.9%) than last year).

For next year, compared to the previous month, projected fed steer prices increased $15 in the first quarter to $242 and $15 in the second quarter to $243. The estimated 2026 average fed steer price increased $15 to $244.

Cattle futures closed higher Friday on stronger wholesale beef values and the fact that USDA’s New World Screwworm update the previous day did not include reopening the U.S. border to Mexican cattle, as some had feared.

Live cattle futures closed an average of $3.43 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.53 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.63 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.96 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly limited on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $243-$245/cwt. and steady in the western Corn Belt at $240-$245. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $380-$385.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $235 in the Southern Plains. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $378-$385 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.78 higher Friday afternoon at $400.57. Select was $3.88 higher at $370.76. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $21.73 higher and Select was $15.67 higher (see below).

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 530,000 head was 6,000 head fewer than the previous week and 75,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 18.3 million head was 1.3 million head fewer (-6.8%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15.9 billion pounds was 635.1 million pounds less (-3.8%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, building on the rally after the early-week drop tied to the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 14¢ higher through Sep ’26 and then 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Friday, with likely week-end profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 34 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 87 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed average of 93¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Consumer beef demand continues to power historically high cattle prices.

“Choice boxed beef prices have advanced more than $35/cwt. the past two weeks while the Select cutout has increased more than $27 over that same time period,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “One would have to assume this is being driven by Labor Day demand for beef, but these types of price surges cannot be overlooked as they may include some short covering. In this case, short covering is probably due to strong consumer demand. Ground beef tends to be the beef item of choice for the last grilling holiday of the summer, but ground beef alone is not what is driving the market price to increase 9-10% over a two-week period. The secondary impact of this is no relief in prices at the retail level. If the wholesale price remains elevated, then retailers will continue to increase the price consumers pay to put beef on the plate.”

For perspective, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) explain the all-fresh beef retail beef price in July was $8.90 per pound, which was 75¢ per pound higher (9.2%) year over year.

“Year-over-year strength was seen across all cuts, with sirloin steaks up 15.6% to $13.55 per pound, ground beef advancing 12.2% to $6.50 per pound, roasts gaining 9.9% to $8.40 per pound and rounds moving 7.8% higher to $8.69 per pound,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

By way of comparison, LMIC analysts explain the average retail pork price in July was 9¢ higher (1.8%) at $5.01 per pound and the average composite retail broiler price was 7¢ higher (2.9%) at $2.48 per pound.

“Beef prices are record high, and there is lots of discussion about whether that can be sustained.  However, it seems that changes in pork and poultry prices are having relatively little impact on beef demand,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Friday on likely profit taking, week-end positioning and lack of weekly cash fed cattle direction. However, they still posted strong weekly gains.

Live cattle futures closed an average of $5.10 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed mostly limit down, an average of $9.20 lower. However, week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.78 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $7.36 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to moderate on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $245/cwt. in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt with some up to $245. There were also some dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $378-$385.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $235/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$236 in Kansas, $245-$247 in Nebraska and mostly $245 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $383.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 10¢ lower Friday afternoon at $378.84. Select was $1.34 higher at $355.09.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 536,000 head was 1,000 head more than the previous week but 52,000 head less than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 17.8 million head was 1.3 million head less (-6.6%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15.5 billion pounds was 580.6 million pounds less (-3.6%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday with the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates looming Tuesday and speculation about how much USDA might increase estimated yields.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 206 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 49 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 207 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed unchanged to 15¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Wholesale beef prices turned the seasonal corner last week with Choice boxed beef cutout value $15.62 higher week to week on Friday at $378.84/cwt. Select was $14.59 higher at $355.09.

“There is absolutely no doubt this price surge was spurred and supported by retailers and food service making purchases for the Labor Day weekend,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Now that the meat counter is stocked with beef, the question will be if consumers will be willing to purchase beef for the last grilling holiday of the year.”

Based on the resiliency of beef demand, Griffith suspects consumers will indeed step up to the plate for Labor Day.

“If consumers come through as is expected, then retailers will continue to support beef prices as they restock the meat counter,” Griffith explains. “The restocking of meat counters will not push wholesale beef prices higher, but it will slow the price decline that is expected as the market moves through the fall months.”

Cattle futures continued higher yet again Thursday, riding the same bullish fundamentals.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $3.32 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.95 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$236 in Kansas, $245-$247 in Nebraska and mostly $245 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $383.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.08 higher Thursday afternoon at $379.94. Select was $2.39 higher at $353.75.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday, perhaps buoyed by some bottom picking.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 10¢ higher. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, giving back early-session gains on likely profit taking and tariff confusion.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 224 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 73 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 17¢ to 56¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures powered upward Wednesday, helped along by another bounce in wholesale beef values and growing expectations of steady to higher cash fed cattle trade again this week.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.04 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.91 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$236 in Kansas, $245-$247 in Nebraska and mostly $245 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $383.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.92 higher Wednesday afternoon at $374.86. Select was $5.42 higher at $351.36.

Turning toward the gain complex,

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were another 3¢ to 5¢ lower as traders bet on a behemoth crop. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday led by tech stocks, namely, the boost in Apple based on quarterly earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 45 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 252 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 80¢ to $1.02 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef export volume in June was the least in five years, due in part to China’s failure to renew registrations for the vast majority of U.S. plants, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 93,928 metric tons (mt) in June, down 15% from a year ago and the lowest since June 2020. Export value was $769 million, down 18% and the lowest in 17 months. Shipments to Korea and Mexico were steady with year-ago levels, while exports increased sharply to Central and South America and variety meat demand strengthened in Egypt and in several emerging markets in Africa. But these gains did not fully offset the steep decline in exports to China and lower shipments to Japan.

Lack of access to China not only results directly in lost business and missed opportunities, but the U.S. beef industry is also losing the premiums generated when Chinese buyers compete for cuts that are especially popular throughout Asia, such as short plate, top blade, chuck rolls and short ribs. Without exports to China, USMEF estimates the U.S. beef industry’s lost opportunity at $150 to $165 per head of fed slaughter, or about $4 billion annually.

“The June export results really underscore the urgent need to resolve this impasse with China,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “China’s tariff rate on U.S. beef is currently 32% – which is too high, but not insurmountable. The problem is, with only a few plants eligible to ship to China, the tariff rate becomes irrelevant. Consistent and transparent plant approvals, without expiration, were among the most important components of the 2020 Phase One Agreement with China, and it’s time for China to return to those commitments.”

While USMEF remains hopeful that access to China will be restored soon, the current situation highlights the importance of diversification and further development of emerging markets such as Central America and Southeast Asia.

For January through June, beef exports were 6.5% below last year’s pace at 602,221 mt, while value fell 6% to $4.92 billion.

Beef exports equated to $392.72 per head of fed slaughter in June, down 14% from a year ago (again, reflecting the absence of China). The January-June average was $410.00, down 2% from the first half of 2024.