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Cattle futures charged higher Tuesday, helped along by last week’s record-high cash fed cattle prices and resurgent wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $3.29 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.65 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$236 in Kansas, $245-$247 in Nebraska and mostly $245 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $383.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.15 higher Tuesday afternoon at $369.94. Select was $4.35 higher at $345.94.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday on likely bumper yields and international demand concerns.  

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday as investors grappled with more tariff threats from the White House.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 61 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 30 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 137 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 90¢ to $1.13 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural sentiment continued to weaken in July, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index declined 11 points to 135 from June. The July Current Conditions Index dropped 17 points to 127, while the Future Expectations Index declined 7 points to 139.

“Producers held dim views of current conditions and future expectations, which weakened the sentiment of U.S. farmers in July,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Still, producers showed somewhat more optimism about U.S. agricultural trade prospects in July, with the majority assessing that the U.S. policy is heading in the right direction.”

More specifically, 43% of July survey respondents reported expectations for an increase in agricultural exports in the next five years, 2 points higher than the previous month. Of those responding to a related question in July, 64% said they considered it likely that the next five years would open new foreign export markets to American agricultural goods.

Among other survey highlights, the Farm Financial Performance Index fell 14 points from June to 90, reflecting concerns about weak income prospects this year as crop prices erode.

 Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index also softened in the wake of the weaker income outlook for next year, dropping 5 points from June. The latest reading of 115 also leaves the index 3 points lower than last year and 10 points below two years ago.

This month’s barometer survey took place from July 7-11.

Cattle futures extended gains Monday, helped along by last week’s stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices and thoughts that wholesale beef values may have established the seasonal bottom.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 52¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in the all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$5 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $235/cwt., $4-$5 higher in Kansas at $235-$236, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $245-$247 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $245. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 higher in Nebraska at $383-$385 and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $380.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $3.79 higher at $243.17. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $4.18 higher at $383.68.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 higher Monday afternoon at $364.32. Select was $1.09 higher at $341.59.

Turning to the grain complex, Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Monday, mostly erasing losses from the previous session with no apparent reason.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 585 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 91 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 403 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 55¢ to $1.21 lower through the front six contracts on OPEC’s decision to increase crude oil production levels.

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Although the recent monthly Cattle on Feed report illustrated historically high long-fed cattle numbers, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University notes the total inventory of cattle on feed is the fewest in seven years.

Moreover, Koontz explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets that fed cattle supplies supplies will tighten further this summer, into the fall and through the end of the year.

“There are noticeably short numbers coming for the beef packing industry – some this year but continuing over the next several years with herd expansion,” Koontz says. “High-cost plants and low-volume plants – many of these built or renovated in the past five years – will have economic issues. There will be something or some series of events which will slow the rise of cattle prices, and perhaps it will be this structural change as opposed to less expensive pork and poultry proteins.”

Cattle futures bounced back Friday after the previous session’s sharp decline and despite bearish outside markets.

Live cattle futures closed an average of 98¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.59 higher.

Cattle futures were mostly higher week to week on Friday, which says plenty when considering the sharp downward correction on Thursday. Except for $3.65 higher in spot Aug. and 30¢ lower at the back, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 86¢ higher (20¢ higher at the back to $2.80 higher at the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade was light on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt and moderate on moderate demand elsewhere.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3-$5 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $235/cwt., $4-$5 higher in Kansas at $235-$236, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $245-$247 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $245. Dressed delivered prices were $3 higher at $383.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.90 higher Friday afternoon at $363.22. Select was 87¢ lower at $340.50. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.46 lower and Select was $4.37 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter of 535,000 head least week was 14,000 head fewer than the previous week. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 17.3 million head was 1.2 million head fewer (-6.6%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15 billion pounds was 549 million pounds less (-3.5%).

Turning to the grain complex, ongoing favorable weather and growing prospects of monster crops pressured Corn futures 2¢ to 4¢ lower through new-crop contracts on Friday. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher through new-crop contracts and then 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday with pressure including a weaker employment reading than expected and more tumult from announced U.S., tariffs.

Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in July with an increase of just 73,000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was also static at 4.2%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12¢ to $36.44 in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 542 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 101 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 472 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.93 to $2.04 lower through the front six contracts.

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Although definitive signs of beef cow herd expansion remain unclear, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), say the recent USDA Cattle and Cattle on Feed reports suggest the herd is near the cyclical low.

LMIC analysts point out the projected calf crop was estimated at 33.1 million head for this year, roughly -1.4% less than two years earlier when the mid-year Cattle report was last published, reflecting tighter supplies and continued contraction in the national herd.

The July beef cow inventory was estimated at 28.7 million head, which was 1.2% less than the same time in 2023. Beef replacement heifers of 3.7 million head were 2.6% less.

“Heifers on feed represented 38.1% of total feedlot inventories, corresponding to a pullback of 1.5% from the same quarter in 2024,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The last time significant retention efforts were observed was in 2015, when heifers’ contribution to the feedlot mix fell three consecutive quarters by 3.3% to 3.5%, meaning any substantial heifer retention is likely not yet underway. These compounding factors have brought the number of feeder cattle outside of feedlots to the lowest levels ever observed (2% less than in 2023 to 34 million head) since cattle on feed was added to the July Cattle report in 1994.”

With declining cattle numbers in mind, LMIC analysts note longer cattle feeding periods with 16.1% more cattle on feed for longer than 150 days in June year over year and 45.1% more on feed for longer than 180 days.

“Moving forward, 2025 is likely to be a stabilization year as the industry grapples with uncertain trade and financing environments,” LMIC analysts say. “However, modest expansion could begin in 2026, contingent on favorable pasture conditions and overall profitability. Although, any growth that occurs will likely be limited, cautious and gradual.”   

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Thursday with likely profit taking, month-end position squaring and technical wariness over the impact of steeper U.S. tariffs on Brazilian beef imports.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $4.68 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.59 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were some early dressed delivered prices $3 higher at $383/cwt. FOB live prices there last week were $242-$245.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in Kansas. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales at $235/cwt. Prices last week were $230-$232.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230-$232/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $240 in the western Corn Belt where dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $361.32. Select was 46¢ higher at $341.37.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.  

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, despite strong quarterly earnings for tech giants like Microsoft.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 330 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 7 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 62¢ to 66¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Reflecting on last week’s USDA Cattle and Cattle on Feed reports, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University notes the beef cow inventory of 28.65 million head was 1.5% less than two years earlier, when the previous mid-year report was published, but was 2.8% more than the beginning of this year. 

“Historically, this would indicate some herd growth in the first half of the year but there is little other data to corroborate this estimate,” Peel says. 

“Beef replacement heifers for July 1 were 3.7 million head, down 5.1% from two years ago. The comparison of July to January beef replacement heifers was about the same as two years ago and does not indicate heifer retention.” 

Likewise, Matthew Diersen, risk and business management specialist at South Dakota State University points out heifers represented 38.1% of all cattle on Feed July 1.

“The mix has been hovering around 39% for several years,” Diersen says in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The mix bottomed out at around 31% in mid-2015 during the last cattle expansion. The mix had been getting lower, especially last quarter when it reached 37.6%. An increase from April 1 to July 1 is consistent over time. The mix is the smallest it has been on July 1 since 2019 and would be the slightest indication that some expansion is being considered.”

Considering the July Cattle on Feed and the Cattle reports together, Peel says there is no indication of significant heifer retention.

“My feeling is that some movement towards herd rebuilding may be starting but is very slow and cautious,” Peel says. “It is possible, perhaps even likely, that the January 2025 beef cow herd will be the cyclical low, but the January 2026 inventory will likely be close to unchanged showing very little, if any, growth this year.”  

You can hear more of Peel’s market insights here.

Cattle futures continued to grind higher Wednesday on bullish supply and demand fundamentals.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.74 higher. So far this week, Live Cattle futures are $4.80 higher and Feeder Cattle futures are $7.77 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales at $235/cwt. Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230-$232/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $242-$245 in Nebraska and mostly $240 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.20 lower Wednesday afternoon at $361.99. Select was $1.57 lower at $340.91.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.  

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts,

Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher on likely short covering. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were mainly 13¢ to 14¢ lower with pressure including demand concerns.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, with pressure including the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 171 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 31 points.

Through mid0afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 46¢ to $1.10 higher through the front six contracts.

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Rural economies remain challenged, according to the latest reading from Creighton University. Their Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) was above growth neutral for the second consecutive month at 50.6 but declined 1.3 points month to month. The index is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. It ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

For the 14th time in the past 15 months, the RMI farmland price index slumped below growth neutral.

“Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on farmland prices,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “On average, bankers expect farmland prices to fall by 2.9% over the next 12 months.”

The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 16.7 from 22.7 in June, below growth neutral for the 23^rd consecutive month.

Bankers were asked to rank the greatest threats to farm income for the next year. More than three of four (76.1%) named low farm commodity prices as the top threat, while 19.9% identified tariffs as the top risk for the farm economy over the next 12 months.

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The July confidence index declined to 36.0 from June’s frail 37.0.

“Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” Goss explains.