WLI

Cattle futures extended gains from the previous session on Monday with a feeling of confidence, despite more negative rhetoric from the White House, aimed at beef packers this time (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $7.02 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were limit-up $9.250, except for $2.80 higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$4/cwt. lower in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $232, $5 lower in Kansas at $230-$232, mostly steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at mainly $230 and mostly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $228. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $357-$360 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $355-$360.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $2.16 lower at $228.70. The weighted average dressed-delivered fed steer price was 21¢ lower at $358.33.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 92¢ higher Monday afternoon at $377.32/cwt. Select was $1.39 lower at $359.70.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Monday, with some likely early positioning tied to the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates that are supposed to be published Friday, in spite of the government shutdown.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Monday, buoyed by signs the government shutdown might be nearing an end.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 381 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 103 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 522 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 35¢ to 42¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Cattle futures rallied higher Monday, despite President Trump’s latest social media shotgun salvo, aimed at beef prices and blasted in a Truth Social post last Friday. In it, he accuses meat packers of collusion, price fixing and other sundry crimes, and he demands immediate investigation from the Department of Justice.

Essential as beef packers are to the cattle business, it likely always will be difficult to find a cattle producer sympathizing with them. However, even the most devout packer detractor might find it difficult to explain why packer margins have been in the red for so long if they wielded the power suggested.

Using history, facts and a bevy of credible research over decades, it’s even tougher to argue consumer beef prices wouldn’t be higher than they are currently, and producer prices wouldn’t be lower, if not for the efficiencies yielded by the modern-day packing infrastructure, warts, concentration and all.

“Concentration in any industry leads to the potential for market power. The ability of concentrated firms to utilize market power depends on controlling supply,” explains Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist, in his weekly market comments. “Large firms do not control demand and can only influence price by controlling supply relative to demand. Beef packers’ ability to manipulate cattle or beef prices is severely limited, owing to the fact that they do not control supply … packers do not own cows. Packers inevitably purchase and process all available cattle at any point in time – whether too many or not enough cattle. The current situation is way not enough cattle and packers can’t change that. If there were more cattle to process, they would, and beef prices would decrease.”

More specifically, Peel shares a summary of related research from just a few years ago.

“Agricultural economists recognize the potential for market power to be expressed in highly concentrated industries. The cattle and beef industry, and the beef packing industry in particular, has been researched in multiple studies to understand the impacts of market concentration,” according to the summary. “The evidence shows: 1) market power does negatively impact fed cattle prices, but the impact is small; and 2) the cost savings due to size economies are at least 10 times greater than the negative market power impacts. Cattle producers and beef consumers receive net benefits from the cost efficiencies of the current market structure in the form of higher cattle prices and lower beef prices than would exist in a less efficient industry.”

Those are facts.

“Though the outcome of current political actions is uncertain, the potential for long-term harm to the industry is substantial,” Peel says. “Anytime politics trumps economics, the strong supply and demand fundamentals that have determined the outlook for the industry to this point become irrelevant. Expectations for prices and production going forward are now completely clouded, therefore, all bets are off.”

Cattle futures firmed Friday.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.74 higher. However, they were an average $6.97 lower week to week on Friday. That’s about an average $23.09 lower over the past three weeks.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.36 higher on Friday but an average of $13.38 lower week to week and about an average of $51.78 lower over the past three weeks.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3-$4/cwt. lower in the Texas Panhandle at $232 and $3-$5 lower in Kansas at $232. FOB live prices were unevenly steady in Nebraska at $230-$230.50 and mostly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly mainly $228. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $357-$360 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $355-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.56 lower Friday afternoon at $376.40/cwt. Select was 33¢ higher at $361.09. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $1.73 lower but Select was $2.44 higher.

Grain futures and were lower Friday, while Soybean futures closed higher.  Corn futures were mostly 1¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 10¢ higher through near Aug and then 3¢ to 4¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday, following a volatile trading session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 74 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 49 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 32¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provide some perspective on declining cash calf values, in the latest Livestock Monitor. They note Oct. 17 was the recent price peak for Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 500-600 lbs. in many market areas.

At the time, prices were $487.60/cwt. in Montana, $509.91 in South Dakota, $496.64 in Nebraska and $461.78 in the Southern Plains (Oklahoma and Kansas).Just two weeks later, LMIC analysts say prices were 9.1% to 12.6% lower in these areas at $426.25 in Montana, $462.35 in South Dakota, $451.50 in Nebraska and $406.71in Oklahoma and Kansas. Still, they point out prices in these market areas last week were 31.7% to 44.4% higher year over year.

Cattle futures moved lower again on Thursday with follow-through pressure and lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices for the week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ lower, except for $1.85 higher in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.96 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $3-$4/cwt. lower in the Texas Panhandle at $232 and $3-$5 lower in Kansas at $232. FOB live prices are unevenly steady in Nebraska at $230-$230.50 and mostly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $228. Dressed delivered prices are steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $357-$360 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $355-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $377.97/cwt. Select was 51¢ higher at $360.76.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely profit taking, farmer selling and weaker outside markets.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 16¢ to 17¢ lower. Soybean futures were 20¢ to 28¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, as investors soured on artificial intelligence companies once again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 398 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 75 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 445 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 2¢ to 11¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures extended losses Wednesday, trading mostly limit-down, as traders hunt for a bottom to the emotionally driven break, tied to President Trumps goal of lowering domestic retail beef prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $7.20 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.19 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to moderate on good demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Early, FOB live prices were $3-$4/cwt. lower in the Texas Panhandle at $232 and $3-$5 lower in Kansas at $232. FOB live prices were unevenly steady in Nebraska at $230-$230.50 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $228-$229. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 lower at $357-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 68¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $378.26/cwt. Select was $1.00 lower at $360.25.

Grain and Soybean futures rebounded on Wednesday, helped along by China rolling back some tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 15¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Wednesday, buoyed by a turnaround in tech stocks and increased speculation the Supreme Court will deem President Trump’s tariffs illegal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 225 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 151 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 68¢ to 93¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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While cattle market psychology may have shifted in recent weeks, market fundamentals remain mostly the same, says Will Secor, Extension Livestock Economist at the University of Georgia, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“The supply side remains tight with limited opportunities to expand in the short run,” Secor explains. “Cull cows from the dairy sector may offset some of the reduction in beef cull cows on tighter dairy margins. However, this offset is partial. Additionally, dressed weight increases may be topping out. In September, year-over-year increases in cattle dressed weights ranged from 1.5-2.1%. In contrast, dressed weights in January saw year-over-year increases of around 3.2-5.3%. Lastly, changes in beef imports are limited and likely more complementary to existing beef supplies, as imports are often lean beef being blended for ground beef.”

On the other side of scale, Secor notes various data suggest domestic consumer beef demand remains strong.

Queasiness about political intent for the cattle markets and wonderments about resumption of cattle imports from Mexico pressured Cattle futures on Tuesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.25 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.09 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235-$236/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$237 in Kansas, $228-$232 in Nebraska and mostly $230 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $358-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.67 lower Tuesday afternoon at $377.58/cwt. Select was $1.32 higher at $361.25.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower on Tuesday with pressure likely including farmer selling and profit taking from recent gains.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 14¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower on Tuesday, led by tech stocks, especially those related to artificial intelligence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 251 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 80 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 486 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 45¢ to 70¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural sentiment improved slightly in October, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB). The overall index rose 3 points from the previous month to a reading of 129. The Index of Current Conditions fueled the increase, climbing 8 points to 130. The Index of Future Expectations was virtually unchanged at 129.

AEB analysts say producers’ appraisal of current conditions depict a tale of two economies. Livestock producers remain optimistic, partly supported by record-high profitability in the beef sector. However, crop producers report a more pessimistic view of the current situation due to low profit margins across major crop enterprises.

Similarly, Crop producers expect their financial performance to fall well below that of a year ago, while livestock producers anticipate results similar to the previous year. The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped to 78 in October, 10 points lower than in September.

“U.S. farmers are adjusting to ongoing economic pressures in different ways,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Livestock producers are seeing strong returns and remain optimistic, while many crop producers are contemplating management changes for 2026 to help cope with tighter margins.”

Policy uncertainty continues to influence producer sentiment. In October, 58% of producers said they expect increased use of tariffs by the U.S. to strengthen the agricultural economy, up from September but still below the 70% reported in April and May. Meanwhile, 16% of respondents said they were uncertain about the impact of tariff policies on the agricultural economy, double that of both April and May. Despite this uncertainty, roughly 70% of producers said they believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey took place Oct. 13-17.