WLI

Fundamentals appeared to return to Cattle futures trade Monday as prices gained back some of the recent losses.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.34 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.36 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $235-$236/cwt. in a light test, $1-$3 lower in Kansas at $235-$237 in a light test, $7 lower in Nebraska at $228-$232 and $5-$9 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $230. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $10-$12 lower at $358-$360.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $7.03 lower at $230.86. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $10.76 lower at $358.54.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.12 higher Monday afternoon at $379.25/cwt. Select was $1.28 higher at $359.93.

Soybean futures gained again Monday, riding the coattails of last week’s announced trade framework between the United States and China. Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Soybean futures were 14¢ to 20¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 13¢ higher with chatter about potential Chinese business.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday, with the most support from AI stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 226 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 109 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed unchanged to 22¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Given extreme volatility in cattle markets the past couple of weeks, tied to political statement and proposals aimed at reducing domestic consumer retail beef prices, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University emphasizes the importance of remembering that underlying fundamentals remain unchanged.

“What is clear is that uncertainty and volatility from political comments and rhetoric have a very real negative impact on producers and consumers,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. He notes feeder cattle value declined $200-$300 per head in Oklahoma auctions last week. 

“The federal government’s demonstrated willingness to meddle in cattle and beef markets and interfere with markets doing what they do so well likely means that the industry will continue to deal with debilitating uncertainty and volatility,” Peel says. “The most likely outcome is that it will keep cattle producers and lenders cautious and further delay the lengthy process of herd rebuilding, which already looks to extend nearly to the end of the decade.” He adds that the trajectory and price expectations for the next two to four years have not changed.

Heightened volatility and uncertainty tied to lingering wonderments about President Trump’s stated goal to reduce beef prices capped recent gains in Cattle futures on Friday. Month-end position squaring was likely also at play.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.99 lower, except for $1.32 higher in expiring spot Oct. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $5.75 lower, except for $2.85 higher in expiring spot Oct. They were an average $10.37 lower the previous week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.08 lower, from 2¢ lower in expiring Oct to $2.95 lower. Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $16.31 lower. They were an average of $38.40 lower over the past two weeks.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Nebraska at $232.00/cwt. and some in the western Corn Belt at $230.

For the week, FOB live prices were mostly $230/cwt. in the North and dressed delivered trades in Nebraska were $355-$360.

FOB live prices in the Southern Plains the previous week were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ lower Friday afternoon at $378.13/cwt. Select was 87¢ lowerat $358.65.

Soybean futures gained further Friday on the recently announced trade framework between the United States and China, which includes minimum U.S. soybean exports to China. They closed mostly 8¢ to 10¢ higher through Mar ‘27.

Corn futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher through Jly ’26 and then mostly fractionally lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 11¢ higher through Sep ’26 and then mostly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 40 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 143 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 15¢ to 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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President Trump’s recent comments about reducing beef prices and chatter about importing more beef from Argentina continued to play havoc in cattle markets last week, sinking cattle futures for a second consecutive week and hammering cash prices for calves and feeder cattle. Nationwide, trend of $30-$40/cwt. declines were common at weekly auctions.

“These comments have quickly ambushed the American cattle producer with their unintended consequences,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “As it relates to reducing beef prices domestically, the President is really only talking about ground beef. Nearly every ounce of imported beef is lean grinding beef except for some muscle cuts coming from Canada. This means that more beef imports would really only influence ground beef prices if they impact anything at all. In fact, the lean grinding beef is needed to mix with trimmings and fat from domestically produced finished cattle, because it adds value to the fat and whole carcass. One person’s opinion is that fundamentals will rule the day. It will take a little time to determine if that is the case or not.”

Cattle futures mostly crawled higher Thursday as traders await further direction from this week’s negotiated cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 70¢ higher (from 2¢ higher to $4.10 higher in waning spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher, except for an average of 40¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades $235-$235.50/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was inactive on light to moderate demand.

So far this week, FOB live prices are mostly $230/cwt. in the North and dressed delivered trades in Nebraska are $355-$360.

Last week, FOB live prices in the Southern Plains were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.11 lower Thursday afternoon at $378.27/cwt. Select was $2.27 lower at $359.52.

Soybean futures gained Thursday with an announced trade truce between the United States and China, albeit a deal with few details provided.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Soybean futures were 7¢ to 12¢ higher. Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 109 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 68 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 377 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 21¢ to 35¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Hopefully, Feeder Cattle futures finally found a bottom from the recent plunge on Wednesday, as traders pressed prices significantly higher Wednesday, helped along by Live Cattle futures, as well as no timeline for resuming cattle imports from Mexico, which some had feared.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $5.33 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.57 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are mostly $230/cwt. in the North and dressed delivered trades in Nebraska are $355-$360.

Last week, FOB live prices in the Southern Plains were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.73 higher Wednesday afternoon at $381.28/cwt. Select was $1.79 higher at $361.79.

Profit taking from recent gains seemed to be the order of the day in the grain complex on Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat mixed, from 1¢ lower to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday. While the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, as widely anticipated, investors soured on suggestions from the central bank that it might not cut rates again this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 74 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 130 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 21¢ to 24¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Live Cattle futures firmed and mostly gained Tuesday, while Feeder Cattle futures continued to unwind with long position liquidation.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ higher, except for an average of 54¢ lower in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.61 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on light to moderate demand elsewhere through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Nebraska at $228-$230/cwt.

Established FOB live prices so far this week are $230 in the North with dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $355-$360.

Last week, FOB live prices in the Southern Plains were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.77 higher Tuesday afternoon at $379.65/cwt. Select was $1.66 lower at $360.00.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher again Tuesday on speculation the U.S. will ink a deal with China.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks and supported by positive quarterly corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 161 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 190 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 54¢ to $1.16 lower through the front six contracts.

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There was no October monthly Cattle on Feed report, which was supposed to be published last Friday but wasn’t due to the government shutdown. However, analysts did release pre-report estimates.

On average, analysts pegged the Oct. 1 cattle on feed inventory to be 1.9% less year over year, roughly 11.38 million head, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

Analysts estimated September feedlot placements at about 1.97 million head which would be 8.6% less year over year. Projected September marketings were approximately 1.63 million head, about 0.4% less year over year.

LMIC analysts point out the October report would have shed some light on the quarterly mix of steers and heifers on feed.

“This is not a value forecasted and published among pre-report estimates,” LMIC analysts explain, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The last time this value was published was in the July report, which at the time had the contribution of steers-to-heifers at about 1.6 steers to every heifer on feed. For context, since roughly 2019, this ratio ranged between 1.5 to 1.7 steers per heifer, which is very low compared to the last two decades.

“During the last major trough and expansion event from early 2012 to mid-2015, the ratio moved from 1.6 to over 2.2 steers per heifer. Recently, minor reductions in heifers on feed have occurred, but uncertainty will remain without this data.”