WLI

Cattle futures were higher Friday ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed and semiannual Cattle inventory reports (see below).

Live cattle futures were an average of 67¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.08 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were $3.80 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were $8.34 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to light on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

There were too few trades to establish a trend in any region, however there were some early FOB live trades at $230-$237.50/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $240-$242 in the North where early dressed delivered prices were $375-$380.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $230-$231 in Kansas and $240 in the North where dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.41 lower Friday afternoon at $366.68. Select was $2.13 lower at $344.87. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $6.87 lower and Select was $6.62 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 549,000 head was 14,000 head fewer than the previous week and 56,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 16.7 million head was 1.2 million head less (-6.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 14.6 billion pounds was 513.2 million pounds less (-3.4%).

Grain futures were lower Friday beneath the ongoing weight of positive crop progress and weather.  

Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mainly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, supported by strong quarterly corporate earnings reports and the week’s positive trade progress.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 208 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 25 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 50 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 67¢ to 87¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as bullish with significantly fewer placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.4 million head in June, which was 123,000 head fewer (-7.9%) year over year and 6% fewer than expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 38% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 45% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 17% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Cattle marketed in June of 1.7 million head were 79,000 head fewer (-4.4%) than the same time last year, which was slightly less than the average of analyst estimates ahead of the report.

Cattle on feed July 1 of 11.1 million head were 180,000 head fewer (-1.6%) year over year, which was 1.6% less than expectations. The 4.2 million heifers on feed were 5% less year-over-year.

USDA also issued the mid-year Cattle inventory report Friday. The report was cancelled last year, so these comparisons for July 1 are relative to the same time in 2023.

Beef cows numbered 28.7 million, which was 350,000 head fewer (-1.2%) than two years earlier but 1% more than expectations ahead of the report. Beef replacement heifers of 3.7 million head were 100,000 head fewer (-2.6%).

All cattle and calves of 94.2 million head were 1.2 million head less (-1.3%) than the same time in 2023, slightly more than expected.

Depending on who is interpreting the two reports, and the mad dash for calves and feeder cattle, reduced cow slaughter and a declining percentage of heifers on feed, it appears herd rebuilding has begun.

Cattle futures were lower Thursday on likely profit taking and positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed and Cattle inventory reports.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 84¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.39 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales at $231/cwt. Elsewhere, trade was inactive on moderate demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $230-$231 in Kansas and $240 in the North where dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 57¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $368.09. Select was $1.61 higher at $347.00.

Grain futures were higher Thursday but continue to be capped by positive crop progress and weather.  

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were mainly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Thursday with the most support coming from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 316 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 39¢ lower to 81¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Declining labor force participation, lower birth rates and a collapse in net migration are combining to squeeze the U.S. labor supply. The looming labor shortage could begin to weigh on businesses and strain economic growth as soon as later this year, according to a new quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. With the labor supply about to get tighter, the report suggests businesses and industries operating in rural America should be increasing their focus on technology to overcome labor availability challenges.

“Barring an unforeseen change in labor force participation rates or immigration policies, the pool of available workers is set to shrink precipitously in the next few years,” said Rob Fox, director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “The problem will be even more acute in states with lower population growth in the Upper Midwest, Corn Belt and the Central Plains. Increased adoption of technology, namely AI and robotics, will likely be at the core of any strategy to address the oncoming labor squeeze.”

The labor force participation rate has trended downward since 2000, and the trend may be accelerating. Nearly 2.5 million working-aged people dropped out of the labor force in the past eight months alone. The U.S. fertility rate has plummeted since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, reducing the number of native-born citizens entering the workforce. The loss of those new workers coincides with baby boom generation retirements, amplifying the impact on the overall labor supply. According to the CoBank report, those two factors, combined with more restrictive immigration policies and aggressive deportation efforts, will put significant stress on the U.S. labor supply with the potential to impede economic growth.

Cattle futures gapped higher Wednesday, supported by outside markets and perhaps some early positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed and semiannual Cattle inventory reports due out Friday.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.25 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.39 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $230-$231 in Kansas and $240 in the North where dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.98 lower Wednesday afternoon at $367.52. Select was $2.55 lower at $345.39.

Grain futures were lower Wednesday with the improving weather outlook.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, fueled by the announced U.S. trade deal with Japan.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 507 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 49 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 127 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 11¢ to 24¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures moved higher Tuesday, except for slightly lower in nearby Live Cattle contracts.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 50¢ higher, except for an average of 37¢ lower in the front three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $230-$231 in Kansas and $240 in the North where dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 43¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $372.50. Select was $2.11 lower at $347.94.

Grain futures were mixed Tuesday with Corn and Soybeans down on crop ratings and an improved weather outlook.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were unchanged to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly higher Tuesday with positive quarterly corporate earnings across the broader economy, while tech stocks faced pressure.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 82 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 37¢ to 84¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Heifer and beef cow slaughter suggest that the beef cow herd may stabilize and possibly increase fractionally by the end of the year, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. He explains heifer slaughter is 3.5% less year over year so far in 2025, while beef cow slaughter is 16.5% less.

“If the current beef cow slaughter rate persists for the remainder of the year, herd culling in 2025 may drop below 9.0%, a level that is certainly consistent with herd rebuilding,” Peel says.

Moreover, Peel points out drought conditions have diminished significantly in much of the eastern two-thirds of the country and have improved during the past two months in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. At the same time, he explains drought continues to expand and deepen in the west, Pacific Northwest and across the Northern Plains areas of Montana and North Dakota.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 30% of the nation’s cattle were in areas affected by abnormal dryness or drought compared to 39% at the same time last year.

Nationwide, 43% of range and pasture was in Good (32%) and Excellent (11%) condition, compared to 40% a year ago, according to the weekly Crop Progress report for the week ending July 20. On the other end of the scale, 28% was rated as Poor (17%) or Very Poor (11%) compared to 29% last year.

States with 35% of pasture and range ranked as Poor or Very Poor included Arizona (78%), Montana (56%), Nevada (90%), New Mexico (42%) and Oregon (41%).

Peel notes pasture and range conditions in the eight western states (AZ, CA, ID, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA) include 39.9% in Poor and Very Poor conditions, more than last year and the five-year average. He explains the same can be said of Central Plains states (CO, KS, MT, NE, ND, SD, WY) where 27.5% are in Poor or Very Poor condition.

“Although some producers are still being impacted by drought, most of the current drought regions have relatively low beef cow numbers and would not offset increases in other regions,” Peel says.

Cattle futures gained ground Monday, buoyed by the discount to cash, as well as ongoing strong cash demand for feeder cattle.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.92 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.76 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $230-$231 in Kansas and $240 in the North where dressed delivered prices were $380.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was 57¢ higher at 237.78/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 15¢ higher at $379.36.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.48 lower Monday afternoon at $372.07. Select was $1.44 lower at $350.05.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday, pressured by likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday with the primary support coming from Big Tech.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 19 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 78 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 3¢  to 34¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Among other market anomalies at historic price heights, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee points out prices for lightweight calves have continued to defy seasonal tendencies.

“Lightweight calf prices typically peak in March and April before declining through the summer and fall months,” Griffith says, in his weekly market comments. “This year, the price of lightweight calves has continued to increase with declines in random weeks along the way. One would assume prices will soften during the fall months when the majority of spring born calves make their way to market, but the seasonal decline may not be as magnified as the historical averages would predict.”

As producers navigate historic prices on both sides of the transaction, Griffith emphasizes the need for risk management strategies.