WLI

Cattle futures burst higher on Tuesday, supported by higher outside markets, what some would call obscenely oversold conditions and likely short covering. There was also chatter about support coming from news that Brazil halted beef exports to China after confirming a case of atypical BSE. The ball will likely be in China’s hands because it seem doubtful the discovery will change Brazil’s OIE BSE risk status.

The rally came despite negotiated cash fed cattle sales opening in the Southern Plains a day earlier at $113/cwt., which was $2 less than the previous week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.35 higher (77¢ to $1.70 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.42 higher.

Wholesale beef values were steady to firm on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $223.00/cwt. Select was 34¢ higher at $207.21.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Tuesday with hints that the Fed is willing to cut interest rates in an effort to sustain economic growth. At least that’s what the trade seemed to interpret from opening remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell at the Conference on Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Practices:

“I’d like first to say a word about recent developments involving trade negotiations and other matters,” Powell said. “We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved. We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2% objective.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 512 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 194 points.

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The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer—a measure of producer sentiment—dropped 14 points in May to 101, the lowest level since October 2016.

“Ag producers are telling us the agricultural economy weakened considerably this spring as the barometer has fallen 42 points (29%) since the start of this year,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Farmers are facing tough decisions in the midst of a wet planting season and a lot of uncertainty surrounding trade discussions.”

Month to month, producer perspectives weakened considerably, relative to both current and future economic conditions. The Index of Current Conditions declined 15 points to 84. The Index of Future Expectations also declined 15 points to 108.

Unsurprisingly, producers continue to be concerned about agricultural trade issues. For instance, only 65% of respondents expect U.S. agriculture to see a favorable outcome to the U.S.-China trade dispute. That’s down from 77% in March and 71% in April.

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The political football that was the supplementary disaster aid bill finally made it through the uprights Monday night. If signed by President Trump, as expected, it will start the ball rolling on $19.1 billion in aid for natural disasters going back a few years.

According to a statement from Iowa Secretary of Agriculture, Mike Naig, these are some of the highlights:

Approximately $3 billion is provided to the USDA Office of the Secretary to cover producers’ agricultural losses due to natural disasters.

$435 million will be provided to the Emergency Watershed Protection Program (EWPP) for rural watershed recovery.  

$558 million will be provided to the Emergency Conservation Program (ECP) for repairs to damaged farm land.   

$150 million will be allocated to repair Rural Development Community Facilities in towns affected by natural disasters. 

Cattle futures tried for gains early once again Monday, but succumbed to sluggish trade and overall bearishness by the close.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 55¢ lower (10¢ lower to $1.70 lower in spot Jun).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.05 lower, except for an average of 15¢ higher in three contracts.

Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and lower on Select with light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ lower Monday afternoon at $223.20/cwt. Select was 82¢ lower at $206.87.

Corn futures closed 2¢ lower in the front months, but mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher overall.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday. Much of the pressure was on tech companies, fueled by reports that the U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate some of the giants, relative to potential antitrust practices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 4 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 120 points.

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Crop planting and development continued to lose ground last week, according to the most recent Crop Progress report.

67% of corn was planted as of June 2, which was 29% less than last year and the 5-year average. 46% is emerged, which is 38% less than last year and the average. Progress lost more ground week to week in some key states, compared to average: Illinois (-59%); Indiana (-62%); Iowa (-33%); Minnesota (-39%); Nebraska (-11%).

39% of soybeans are in the ground, compared to 86% for the previous year and 79% for the average. 19% are emerged, which was 46% less than last year and 37% less than average.

Pasture and range conditions continue at a stellar pace, though eroding conditions are showing up in parts of the Southeast.

67% of the nation’s pasture and range is rated in Good (54%) or Excellent (13%) condition, compared to 50% last year. 7% is rated as Poor (6%) or Very Poor (1%), compared to 18% a year earlier. States with 15% or more rated as Poor or Very Poor include: FL (19%); GA (28%); ME (18%); NM (37%), OH (16%); SC (19%); WI (16%).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended the week mainly steady with the previous week on a live basis at $115 in the Southern Plains, $116 in Nebraska and mostly $116-$117 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was steady to $3 higher at $186 in Nebraska and at $185-$187 in the western Corn Belt.

Live Cattle futures tried to firm early in Friday’s session but gave way to further losses as sharp follow-through pressure continued in Feeder Cattle, despite sharply lower Corn futures on the day.

Added pressure on commodities came from news that President Trump plans to impose 5% tariffs on Mexican imports, beginning June 10, unless that country makes significant progress toward stemming the flow of illegal immigrants across its northern border into the U.S. Should that come to pass, the move also casts a shadow over ratification of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.47 lower. That’s an average of $3.79 lower in the previous two sessions.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.52 lower ($1.77 lower to $5.10 lower in spot Aug), in the heaviest trade volume since early April. That made for an average of $7.62 lower in the last two session.

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ lower Friday afternoon at $223.21/cwt. Select was $1.18 lower at $207.69.

Corn futures on Thursday closed 4¢ to 9¢ lower, presumably on profit taking, month-end position squaring and worries about tariffs on Mexico.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices dove lower Friday on the aforementioned threat of U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.

Crude oil futures (WTI-CME) closed another $2.98 to $3.10 lower through the front six contracts. That’s $5.11 to $5.32 lower in the last two sessions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 354 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 36 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 114 points.

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African Swine Fever (ASF) continues to spread geographically and numerically.

According to analysts with CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division, it has already caused the loss of hundreds of millions of pigs across China and Southeast Asia, creating a massive shortfall in animal protein supply for those regions through 2020, and possibly for years to come. They add that the shortfall will have significant implications for the U.S. animal protein and feed sectors.”

Assuming the U.S. remains free of AFS, it stands to gain via more exports of pork and other animal proteins.

“The U.S. continues to remain a low-cost exporter of protein products and is in strong position to be a major beneficiary as China and other Asian markets ramp up their imports,” says Will Sawyer, CoBank lead economist for animal protein. “But if the trade dispute with China remains unresolved, the upside trade potential for the U.S. meat sectors may not be fully realized.”

At the same time, the U.S. looks to continue losing feed grain exports. The reduction of feed demand due to ASF will be especially painful for elevators, crushers, and feed mills focused on Chinese markets, according to CoBank.

In a new report from CoBank, African Swine Fever Implications for U.S. Ag, analysts project a 30% decline in the Chinese hog herd for 2019-20, compared to 2017-18, would reduce soybean meal consumption by 9 million metric tons (mmt) and corn consumption by 28 mmt.

Reduced feed grain demand will likely linger as China begins to rebuild its herd.

As of May 23, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) AFS situation report indicated a total of 3,835 ongoing outbreaks and 2,607 new outbreaks. For perspective, the previous report (Apr. 26-May 9) indicated 1,322 ongoing outbreaks and 157 new ones. Countries and territories reporting on new or ongoing ASF outbreaks included: Europe (Belgium, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Russia and Ukraine); Asia (China, Hong Kong and Vietnam) and Africa (South Africa). 

In an effort to prevent a global ASF pandemic, OIE launched a global initiative for the control of ASF at its 87th General Session last week.

“Given the global socioeconomic repercussions of ASF, controlling the disease is a high priority for both affected countries and those free of the disease,” according to an OIE statement. “Although ASF poses no risk to human health, it is devastating for the economy of pig farms and for international trade, with repercussions for the livelihoods of farmers and for food safety.”

Cattle futures collapsed late in Thursday’s session with Feeder Cattle limit down in the front months and Live Cattle sharply lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.10 lower.

No doubt, surging grain prices had plenty to do with the pressure in Feeder Cattle.

Corn futures on Thursday closed 11¢ to 17¢ higher through Jul ‘20 and then mostly 1¢ higher. Week to week, that’s an average of 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 17¢ higher through Mar ‘20 and then mostly 8¢ to 14¢ higher. Week to week, that’s an average of 66¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Other than spillover pressure, it was harder to explain the hard decline in Live Cattle, especially from a fundamental standpoint.

Live sales so far this week are mainly steady at $115/cwt. in the Southern Plains and at $116 in Nebraska. Though too few to trend, early dressed sales on Thursday were steady to $4 higher at $186-$187 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Wholesale beef values are higher, too. Week to week on Thursday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.79 higher at $223.58/cwt. Select was $2.34 higher at $208.87.

But, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.32 lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Thursday. Though worries about economic growth continue, the second estimate for first-quarter GDP growth of 3.1%, from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, provided some support.

Crude oil futures (WTI-CME) tumbled $2.13 to $2.22 lower through the front six contracts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 43 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 20 points.

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Slowing global economic growth is one factor behind expectations for reduced year-over-year U.S. agricultural exports, according to the most recent Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, From USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“Per capita world GDP growth is expected to decrease from 2.1% in 2018 to 1.8% in 2019,” say ERS analysts. “Global trade tensions and the fading impact of fiscal stimulus in the United States, and monetary stimulus elsewhere, will lead to slowed growth for the remainder of 2019.”

Projected livestock, dairy and poultry exports were reduced $500 million to $29.9 billion.

Beef exports are forecast $300 million lower to $7.4 billion on softer prices and volumes. However, ERS analysts point out Australia’s weather-related struggles (lower exportable supplies) provide the U.S. opportunity to expand Asian market share.

“Overall, U.S. agricultural exports for fiscal year 2019 are projected at $137.0 billion, down $4.5 billion from the February forecast, due to reductions in grains, oilseeds, and livestock and products,” say ERS analysts. “Export forecasts for commodities published in the May 10 WASDE (grains, oilseeds, cotton, and livestock and products) include Chinese tariffs in place as of that date. The impact of additional retaliatory tariffs announced by China May 13 on exports of other commodities have been determined to be minimal for fiscal 2019.”