WLI

So far, signs point to at least steady prices for negotiated cash fed cattle trade this week.

Although there were too few transactions for a trend, early live sales were mainly steady on Wednesday at $115/cwt. in the Southern Plains and at $116 in Nebraska.

Early in the day, 137 head sold out of the 483 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction. Two lots from Kansas sold for a weighted average price of $115/cwt.

The outlook for steady cash and recently stronger wholesale beef values helped Cattle futures recover some early ground, following early pressure.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher, (7¢ to 80¢ higher). Perhaps traders are also starting to account for the higher production cost in the deferred contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 26¢ lower to an average of 24¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and weak on Select with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 24¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $223.53/cwt. Select was 46¢ lower at $209.99.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Jul ‘20 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ higher through Aug ‘20 and then mostly 4¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Wednesday, with continued pressure from declining bond yields and bank stocks, tied to signs of slowing economic growth here and abroad.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 221 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 60 points.

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The Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) projects second-quarter cattle prices to average slightly higher year over year: about 2% higher for fed cattle and 1% more for steer calves (500-600 lbs.) and feeders (700-800 lbs.).

That follows a first-quarter decline of 0.1% for fed steers (5-Area Direct). Basis the Southern Plains, feeder steer prices were 3.9% less (-$5.76/cwt.), while steer calves averaged 4.8% less (-$8.60/cwt.).

“U.S. cattle slaughter for the first quarter of 2019 was slightly above a year ago (up 0.7%), while tonnage produced was 0.8% below 2018’s,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The year-over-year increase was due to larger heifer and cow (beef and dairy) harvests. Production declined because of lower dressed weights for steers, heifers, and cows.”

LMIC forecasts fed steer prices in the third quarter (July-September) to average $112-$115/ cwt., about 3% more year over year. Feeder steers are expected to be 3% to 4% below the previous year’s average of $155.99. Steer calf prices for the quarter are pegged flat to 1% higher.

In the fourth quarter, LMIC analysts say, “Compared to 2018, fed cattle prices may be higher (up 1% to 3%), 700-800-pound steers flat, and calves unchanged to 4% stronger.”

Surging grain futures prices helped pressure Feeder Cattle futures to start the week. That helped cap early support in Live Cattle. Lower outside markets, a sharp decline in Lean Hog futures and more cool, wet weather that could continue to dampen summer grilling demand also weighed.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 25¢ lower to an average of 21¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.17 lower.

Wholesale beef values were higher on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.65 higher Tuesday afternoon at $223.29/cwt. Select was $1.98 higher at $210.45.

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Grain futures closed sharply higher Tuesday, buoyed by ongoing planting and development delays, as illustrated in the most recent USDA Crop Progress report.

For instance, 58% of corn was planted as of May 26, which was 32% less than last year and 32% less than the 5-year average. 32% is emerged, which is 37% less than last year and 37% less than average.

Progress is even more bearish in some key states, compared to average: Planting is 60% behind average in Illinois; 63% behind in Indiana; 20% behind in Iowa; 27% off the pace in Minnesota and 13% less than average in Nebraska.

Likewise, 29% of soybeans are in the ground, compared to 74% for the previous year and 66% for the average. 11% are emerged, which was 33% less than last year and 24% less than average.

Progress is even more bearish in some key states, compared to average: Illinois (-60%);  Indiana (-63%); Iowa (-20%); Minnesota (-27%); Nebraska (-13%).

Corn futures closed mostly 17¢ higher through Jul ‘20 and then 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 23¢ to 26¢ higher through Sep ‘20 and then mostly 17¢ to 22¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, pressured by declining yield on the 10-year Treasury note and bank stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 237 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 29 points.

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“Both Live and Feeder cattle are likely due to a correction (technical) following the rapid move at the end of April and the stalling of that move in May. The recent Cattle on Feed report may be the catalyst to start the correction,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Feedlots marketing aggressively and did not place as strongly as expected during April.”

Along with April placements being less than the trade anticipated, Koontz points out, “Cattle on feed over 90 days declined very slightly and cattle on feed over 120 days are down sharply—over 200,000 head. Cattle on feed over 120 days start to decline seasonally during May; this was seen, but more sharply than typical.”

By way of recap, negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended the week generally $1-$2 lower on a live basis at $114-$115/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $116 in Nebraska. It was steady in the western Corn Belt at $116-$118. Dressed trade was steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $183-$186; steady to $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185-$186.

Limit-down Lean Hog futures, and perhaps defensive positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below), helped pressure Cattle futures on Friday. That report ended up more favorable than expected with fewer feedlot placements than anticipated.

Except for 37¢ higher in spot Jun, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 35¢ lower.

Except for 20¢ higher in spot Aug, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 45¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were higher on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 85¢ higher Friday afternoon at $221.64/cwt. Select was $1.94 higher at $208.47.

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 14¢ higher through Jul ‘20 and then mostly 2¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher through May ‘20 and then mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices stabilized Friday, but remained under pressure from trade worries and related signs of slowing economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 95 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 8 points.

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If anything, markets ought to judge Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to cautiously bullish, with significantly fewer April placements than most analysts expected.

There were 1.84 million head placed in feedlots (capacity of 1,000 head or more) in April, which was 8.67% more (+147,000 head) year over year. Most analyst expectations ahead of the report were for placements to be up 13% or so. In terms of weights, 19.27% weighed less than 600 lbs., 37.84% weighed 600-799 lbs. and 42.88% weighed 800 lbs. or more.

The 1.93 million head marketed in April were 6.93% more (+125,000 head) than the previous year, which was slightly more than pre-report projections.

Likewise, cattle on feed May 1 were slightly less than expected with 11.82 million head, which was 2.25% more (+260,000 head) than a year earlier. Still, that’s the most inventory for the date since the data series began in 1996, according to USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade continued in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon at $116/cwt., which was $1 lower than last week, but steady to $1 higher than on Wednesday. Dressed sales were at $183-$186, which was steady to $2 lower than the previous week.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher Thursday, helped along by the previous day’s bullish Cold Storage report, oversold conditions and continued sluggishness.

Except for 2¢ lower in Feb, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ higher.

Except for 2¢ lower at the back of the board, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were firm to higher on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.04 higher Thursday afternoon at $220.79/cwt. Select was 72¢ higher at $206.53.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 5¢ lower through May ‘20 and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ lower in the front five contracts and then mostly fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Thursday, under continued pressure from uncertainty about domestic and global economic growth, related to the U.S. trade impasse with China.

Crude Oil futures (WTI-CME) fell an average of $3.47 through the front six contracts, closing at their lowest levels since March.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 286 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 34 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 122 points.

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“The United States holds all the cards here, and if the U.S. is willing to walk away from the game board and kick it over, it won’t be the one feeling the pain,” said Peter Zeihan, a global trade expert and best-selling author, offering his perspective, at the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) spring conference, on how the current trade environment impacts U.S. agriculture and the red meat industry specifically.

“What you’re seeing right now with the trade deficit is a transitional period,” Zeihan explained. “In this moment, it looks like the United States doesn’t have as much leverage as it actually does. You feel that more than any other sector, because agriculture is the only thing that foreign governments can target. But this moment of transition isn’t going to last long.”

In the meantime, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue announced yesterday that President Trump directed him to craft a relief strategy to support American agricultural producers while the Administration continues to work on free, fair, and reciprocal trade deals to open more markets in the long run to help American farmers compete globally.

Specifically, the President authorized USDA to provide up to $16 billion in programs, which is in line with the estimated impacts of unjustified retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods and other trade disruptions.

“The plan we are announcing today ensures farmers do not bear the brunt of unfair retaliatory tariffs imposed by China and other trading partners,” says Secretary Perdue. “Our team at USDA reflected on what worked well and gathered feedback on last year’s program to make this one even stronger and more effective for farmers. Our farmers work hard, are the most productive in the world, and we aim to match their enthusiasm and patriotism as we support them.”

At the USMEF meeting, Zeihan pointed out, “The Greater Midwest is the single largest chunk of arable land in a temperate zone in the world, and it out-produces the next two largest agricultural zones put together. The Greater Mississippi, by itself, has more miles of naturally navigable waterway than the combined internal systems of the rest of the world. This chunk of North America is both the richest territory on the planet and the most securable. Decades of bipartisan effort have yet to screw this up, and this will not be the administration that cracks the code.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was steady to $2 lower on a live basis through Wednesday afternoon at $115/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and at $114-$115 in Kansas. Dressed sales in Nebraska were mainly steady with last week at $185-$186.

Only 309 head (three lots) were offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction; none sold.

Cattle futures continued to leak lower amid sluggish trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 36¢ lower.

Except for $1.07 higher in expiring May, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 24¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and lower on Select with light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 17¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $219.75/cwt. Select was 77¢ lower at $205.81.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher toward the front of the board and then mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured mostly by retail stocks and tech shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 100 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 34 points.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Apr. 30 totaled 430.35 million lbs. That was 5% less (-40.8 million lbs.) than the previous month and 9% less than the previous year, according to the monthly USDA Cold Storage report published Wednesday. That’s also well below the five-year average of 457 million lbs., according to Allendale, Inc.

Frozen pork supplies of 621.86 million lbs. were 2% more than the previous month but 2% less than a year earlier. 

Total red meat supplies in freezers of 1.099 billion lbs. were up slightly from the previous month but down 5% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 2% from the previous month and up slightly from a year ago.