WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Wednesday afternoon. Although too few to trend, there were a few live trades in the western Corn Belt at $122-$125.

Prices were higher at some fat cattle auctions. For instance, Ch 2-4 steers brought $127.29 to $128.87/cwt. at Tama, IA, which was $2-$3 higher than last week’s negotiated trade in the region. On the other hand, Ch 2-3 steers brought $120.00 to $123.25 at Sioux Falls.

There were 4,139 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange Auction. One lot of Texas steers (63 head) sold for 1-9 day delivery at $123/cwt. One lot of Kansas heifers (116 head) were passed out at $123 for 1-9 day delivery.

Feeder Cattle futures led Live Cattle higher Wednesday. Support included firmer outside markets and resurgent wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 53¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.60 higher ($1.37 to $2.15 higher).

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher. 

Wholesale beef values were firm to higher on moderate to fairly good demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 87¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $217.21/cwt. Select was 32¢ higher at $212.04.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, gathering back some of the previous session’s losses. Support included strong quarterly earnings reports from the likes of IBM and Procter and Gamble.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 171 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 5 points.

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“Trade uncertainty, rising debt levels and market volatility are threatening to derail the global economy and creating difficult operating environments for U.S. agriculture,” says Dan Kowalski, vice president of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division (KED). “Trade is the outsized risk. Unresolved disputes with Mexico, Canada, Europe and China are the greatest collective threat to the U.S. economy in 2019.”

Although the U.S. economy is still performing well by most key measures, global and U.S. economic prospects are weakening and the agricultural economy shows few signs of an imminent comeback, according to a comprehensive 2019 outlook report from CoBank’s KED.

The CoBank report examines 10 key factors that will shape agriculture and markets sectors that serve rural communities throughout the U.S. Among them:

Global Economy—World economic output hit an 8-year high in 2018, powered by both advanced economies and emerging markets. Challenges mounted in late 2018 and risks are decisively weighted to the downside for the coming year… Trade policy between the U.S. and China will remain the leading risk to the global economy. Increasing debt levels is another undercurrent that threatens to derail the global economy. Total global debt levels (all public and private debt) are now more than three times greater than in 2001.

U.S. Economy—The U.S. economic expansion is set to become the lengthiest in history this summer, but clouds forming on the horizon suggest more modest growth in 2019 and greater concerns for 2020.

Dairy and Animal Protein—In 2018, the U.S. animal protein sector began suffering from the same oversupply and weak margins that have plagued U.S. dairy producers since 2015. Despite the less favorable profitability environment, the protein and dairy sectors will continue to expand production in 2019, prolonging the margin squeeze.

Of the three major animal protein species, beef appears to be weathering the animal protein oversupply situation best, with favorable fed cattle prices and historically high packer margins resulting from tight processing capacity.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Tuesday afternoon. Although too few to trend, there was a limited number of sales in Kansas at $122/cwt. on a live basis and at $123 in Nebraska.

Despite stronger wholesale beef values and recent firmness in cash fed cattle prices, Cattle Futures closed lower Tuesday, led by Feeder Cattle. Pressure included sharply lower outside markets, perhaps less weather impact from the weekend than anticipated and concerns about longer term demand strength (see “financial indices” below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.24 lower through the front three contracts and then an average of 61¢ lower.

After 40¢ lower in spot Jan, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.35 lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower through Sep ’20 and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ lower through Sep ’20 and then 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were higher on moderate to fairly good demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.08 higher Tuesday afternoon at $216.34/cwt. Select was 86¢ higher at $211.72.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday, erasing gains from the previous session. Pressure included news from the International Monetary Fund the previous day, suggesting that global economic growth is slowing. Investors also seemed to be rattled by reports of slowing economic growth in China, specifically.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 301 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 136 points.

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“Interest in purchasing breeding stock has been cautious, relative to current spot and futures market pricing for calves and yearlings…Bred cow prices at auctions during the last quarter of 2018 were down 10-20% from a year earlier in key cattle production regions,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor.

Based on average prices reported by the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), LMIC analysts say prices in Georgia were 19% less for cows weighing 1,200-1,300 lbs. and bred 4-6 months. They brought $912.30/head in December, versus $1,119.89 a year earlier.

For the same month, mid-age cows in Montana weighing 1,200-1,300 lbs. sold 6% less year over year.

“Not surprisingly, Midwest auction cow price changes from late 2017 to late 2018 posted a drop between that of Montana and Georgia; prices at Saint Joseph, MO were down 15%,” say LMIC analysts.

Keep in mind, breeding stock markets in some areas, like Missouri, were pressured by drought.

As for calf prices, LMIC projects Southern Plains steer calf prices (500-600 lbs.) to average $167-$174/cwt. this year, compared to the 2018 calf price average of $171.39 last year. LMIC forecasts yearling steer prices (700-800 lbs.) at $145-$150/cwt., compared to $150 last year. LMIC analysts point out that in mid-January, the November Feeder Cattle futures contract closed at $149.85, versus $144.93 a year earlier.

When all was said and done, negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly steady last week at $124/cwt. on a live basis in the Southern Plains and Nebraska, but $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $123-$125. Dressed trade was steady at $197.

Futures and equity markets were closed Monday in honor of Martin Luther King Day.

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Global economic growth continues to weaken, according to the latest World Economic Outlook Update from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF projects global economic growth at 3.5% this year and 3.6% next year; 0.2% and 0.1% less than October’s estimate.

“Even as the world economy continues to move ahead, it is facing significantly higher risks, some of them related to policy,” explained Christine Lagarde, IMF chair and managing director, at press conference for the update. “These risks are now increasingly intertwined: think of how higher tariffs and rising uncertainty over future trade policy fed into lower asset prices and higher market volatility. This in turn contributed to tightening financial conditions, including for advanced economies, which is a major risk factor in a world of high debt burdens.”

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Even if the partial government shutdown—the longest in history—ended this week, odds are against the monthly Cattle on Feed report going out Jan. 25, as originally planned.

To their credit, and understanding the limitations of available data, the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provided its estimates on Friday.

“Placements (feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more) are expected to be slightly larger than a year ago. Feeder cattle imports from Mexico and Canada were about 25,000 head higher year-over-year. Auction receipts showed strong volumes relative to a year ago, both pointing to more placements,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The headwind to placements has been extremely muddy conditions in feedlots, especially in Kansas and Nebraska. LMIC estimates that placements during December were 0.6% more than a year ago. This would be the highest December placement number since 2010.”

LMIC projects December marketings at 0.5% less than a year ago. Analysts emphasize this is the most difficult projection, based on missing data.

“Actual weekly slaughter has not been released since Dec. 8, so this estimate relies on estimated daily slaughter,” LMIC analysts explain. “While the estimated slaughter data is better than no data, there is a large difference in precision. Estimated daily slaughter for steers and heifers are rounded to the nearest 1,000 head, while actual slaughter is down to the number of head. Over the course of an entire month, estimated versus actual can vary.”

Between placement and marketing estimates, LMIC projects the inventory of cattle on feed Jan. 1 to be 2.1% more than a year earlier.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Friday afternoon, with prices for the week looking to be steady to higher.

Lower feedlot performance tied to winter weather, and apparent short covering ahead of the holiday weekend, helped boost Live Cattle futures Friday; Feeder Cattle tagged along to a lesser degree. Strong gains in Lean Hog futures also provided support.

Except for 57¢ lower in spot Feb, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 45¢ higher.

Except for 10¢ lower in March, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ higher.

Soybean futures moved higher Friday, presumably on adverse South American weather and hopes for trade talks; corn followed along.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through Sep ’20 and then mostly fractionally lower.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 9¢ higher through Sep ’20 and then 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were firm to higher on moderate to good demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 65¢ higher Friday afternoon at $213.15/cwt. Select was $1.81 higher at $209.45.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Friday on reports that China pledged to boost U.S. imports for the next six years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 336 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 72 points.

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Choice wholesale beef value never ran as high as some anticipated heading into the holidays, but they remain higher year over year.

Through the front half of January, Choice boxed beef cutout value ranged from $212.02 to $216.64/cwt. compared to $205.14 to $210.49 a year earlier.

“The higher cutout (Choice) value stems from higher middle meat prices and remains higher despite lower end meat prices,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “As an example, the wholesale beef ribeye price is $53/cwt. higher (+7.7%) than the same time one year ago. Similarly, the wholesale beef full tender price is $62 higher (+6.4%) than January one year ago. Despite the support provided by middle meats, end meat prices such as the bottom round are $18/cwt. lower (-8.6%) than last year. Despite the struggles in the round and chuck, the brisket and short plate are also providing support to overall value.”

Griffith reminds that beef cutout values—composite values—are calculated by multiplying the prices of individual beef cuts by the percentage of the carcass that comprises them.

 For perspective, Griffith share this breakdown of primals and the percentage of the carcass they represent: rib (11.40%), chuck (29.62%), round (22.32%), loin (21.26%), brisket (4.95%), short plate (7.10%), and flank (3.35%).