WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through Thursday afternoon.

Spot Feeder Cattle futures pressured the entire cattle complex. Factors included stronger grain prices and the continued erosion in cash calf and feeder cattle prices, tied to weather.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 65¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.25 lower (72¢ lower to $2.35 lower in spot Jan).

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 6¢ higher through Sep ’20 and then 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 13¢ higher through Jan ’20 and then mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were firm on moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 57¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $212.50/cwt. Select was 70¢ higher at $207.64.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Thursday, reportedly mostly due to disputed news that the White House might ease tariffs on China during current trade negotiations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 19 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 49 points.

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Beef is healthier and more sustainable today than at any point in time, according to a recent study conducted by the USDA’s Agricultural Research Service and The Beef Checkoff, published in the journal Agricultural Systems.

For instance, the study found that data commonly used to depict beef cattle’s environmental impact in the U.S. is often overestimated. The study, which is the most comprehensive beef lifecycle assessment to date, evaluated greenhouse gas emissions, feed consumption, water use and fossil fuel inputs. In all these areas, beef’s environmental impacts were found to be less than previously reported.

Among the findings:

Beef production, including the production of animal feed, is responsible for only 3.3% of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S.

Per pound of beef carcass weight, cattle only consume 2.6 lbs. of grain, which is similar to pork and poultry.

Corn used to feed beef cattle only represents approximately 9% of harvested corn grain in the U.S., or 8 million acres. By way of contrast, 37.5% of corn acreage in the U.S. is used for producing fuel ethanol.

On average, it takes 308 gallons of water, which is recycled, to produce a pound of boneless beef. In total, water use by beef is only around 5% of U.S. water withdrawals.

“Cattle are natural upcyclers, which means most of what cattle eat can’t be consumed by humans and would otherwise end up in the landfill,” says Sara Place, Ph.D., senior director of sustainable beef production research for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, a contractor to the Beef Checkoff. “At the end of the day, cattle generate more protein for the human food supply than would exist without them because their unique digestive system allows them to convert human-inedible plants into high-quality protein.”

Moreover, beef continues to become more sustainable in the U.S. thanks to innovation and production efficiencies. In the U.S. today, the same amount of beef is produced with one-third fewer cattle as compared to the mid-1970s, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. If the rest of the world were as efficient as the U.S., global beef production could double while cutting the global cattle herd by 25%. 

You can find the report—Environmental Footprints of Beef Cattle Production in the United States—HERE.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was undeveloped through Wednesday afternoon.

There were 542 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction, and no takers.

Except for spot Feeder Cattle, Cattle futures ended up little changed, despite a fair bit of pressure for much of the session.

Other than an average of 21¢ lower in the back two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 25¢ higher.

Except for 97¢ lower in spot Jan and 5¢ lower in Mar, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 27¢ higher.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Except for 1¢ higher in the front three contracts, Soybean futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally lower.

Wholesale beef values were weak on Choice and higher on Select with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 28¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $211.93/cwt. Select was $1.07 higher at $206.94.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday, helped along by strong quarterly earnings from banks, including Goldman Sachs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 141 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 10 points.

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The market for alternative proteins—fake meat—is growing but still miniscule.

For instance, in a late 2017 CoBank report, Euromonitor International projected U.S. sales of meat substitutes would rise steadily to $863 million in 2021, about 17% more than estimated sales in 2017. At the time, the retail market size was $49 billion is sales for the U.S. meat and poultry category.

Similarly, a study released by Research and Markets last summer, valued the global meat substitute market size at $4,175 million in 2017, and projected it to reach $7,549 million by 2025

Fake meat products built with plant protein dominate the market currently. Fake meat products cultured from animal cells remain unavailable for a host of reasons, including the lack of regulatory framework.

For perspective, according to NPD research, 14% of U.S. consumers—more than 43 million consumers—regularly use plant-based alternatives such as almond milk, tofu, and veggie burgers, and 86% of these consumers do not consider themselves vegan or vegetarian.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was undeveloped through Tuesday afternoon. Last week’s stronger cash trade and another winter storm looming for the Plains and Midwest later this week suggest steady to higher prices.

Those factors supported nearby Live Cattle futures, while lower grain prices boosted Feeder Cattle.

After $1.52 higher in spot Feb, Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed (an average of 36¢ lower to an average of 36¢ higher).

Except for 10¢ lower in spot Jan, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 45¢ higher.

Grain pressure on Tuesday included, reportedly, more promising weather in South America and the dearth of public data.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ lower through Jul ’20 and then mostly 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 10¢ lower through Mar ‘20 and then mostly 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were steady to firm on moderate to fairly good demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 19¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $212.21/cwt. Select was 41¢ higher at $205.87.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks and supported by early quarterly earnings that were mostly stronger than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 155 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 117 points.

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“Recent weather may delay fed cattle marketing enough to help support fed cattle prices or push prices higher,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Whether or not weather impacts are widespread enough to noticeably impact overall market conditions, cattle producers in many areas face significant management headaches due to the weather.”

Peel says the weekend storm dealt heavy snow to some cattle feeding regions in eastern Colorado, Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, southern Iowa and the eastern Corn Belt.

“Feedlots typically post the lowest seasonal average daily gains (ADG) for cattle marketed in March to May, which reflects cattle fed over the previous four to six months. This likely includes the negative impacts of winter weather on feedlot performance but also partly reflects the fact that feedlots place the highest proportion of lightweight cattle (which have lower ADG) in the fall and feed them through the winter,” Peel explains. “Feedlots also experience poorer feeding efficiency in the winter with the highest feed-to-gain ratios of the year posted for cattle marketed in February and March. This occurs despite the fact that lightweight cattle placed in the fall have lower feed-to-gain ratios relative to heavier feedlot placements. This again indicates the impact of winter weather on cattle feeding. Not surprisingly, feedlots post the highest animal morbidity and mortality rates for cattle fed through the winter.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle traded ended up mostly $1 higher on a live basis last week at $124/cwt. in Nebraska and the Southern Plains; $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $122-$124. Dressed trade was $2-$3 higher at $197.

Early support in grain futures helped pressure Feeder Cattle, while stronger cash prices and the weather helped cap losses in Live Cattle.

Except for an average of 37¢ higher in the front two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 22¢ lower. 

Except for $1.27 lower in spot Jan, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 59¢ lower.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 6¢ lower (8¢ lower in spot Jan).

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light to moderate demand and heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 44¢ lower Monday afternoon at $212.02/cwt. Select was 81¢ lower at $205.46.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, led by tech stocks. Depending on the analysts you listen to, pressure included lingering uncertainty about trade issues and the government shutdown, as well as queasiness about the next round of corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 86 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

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In lieu of USDA market reports derailed by the partial government shutdown, markets will make assumptions about the missing data, says Brenda Boetel, Extension agricultural economist at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls.

“The longer the lack of information prevails, the greater the market correction may be when the reports resume, especially if the reports say something different than the market assumed,” Boetel explains, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The cattle markets care about last week’s missing reports, because they gave the final information on the size of the 2018 corn harvest, the speed in which corn is being used, and the first hint of information regarding how many acres of each crop will be planted in 2019. The market is trading on old information, a less than desirable situation.”

Specifically, she’s referring to the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) that were supposed to be issued last week, along with Quarterly Grain Stocks, Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings and weekly export sales.

“The WASDE report likely would have shown a decrease in 2018 corn yield,” Boetel says. “Additionally, poor harvest conditions affected acreage as well as yield. The USDA would likely have lowered 2018 corn production from 14.626 billion bu. to around 14.545 billion bu. The February report will begin to adjust the demand side of the equation and examine more closely whether usage estimates for ethanol or exports needs to be adjusted.”

Cattle feeders and packers continued their standoff through late Friday afternoon, with negotiated cash fed cattle trade undeveloped, according to USDA reports. However, according to AMS, there was a smattering of dressed sales in the Northern Plains at $197/cwt., which was $2 more than the previous week. 

Adverse pen conditions and another winter storm over the weekend point to continued erosion in feedlot performance and more price leverage for cattle feeders.

Cattle futures closed near steady Friday, maintaining week-to-week gains as traders waited cash direction.

Except for 17¢ lower in June, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 15¢ higher. 

Except for 7¢ and 12¢ higher in April and May, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were lower on light demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.50 lower Friday afternoon at $212.46/cwt. Select was $1.50 lower at $206.27.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged slightly lower Friday amid persistent concerns about the partial government shutdown and the lack of trade resolution with China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 5 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 14 points.

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Impacts from muddy feedlot pens and winter weather continue to cut both ways in the market.

“Heavy rain and snow has most of the trade area in very muddy conditions and these conditions are discouraging calf buyers from buying at this time,” according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reporter on hand for Monday’s auction at Oklahoma National Stockyards.

Between demand pressure and heavy post-holiday volume, steers and heifers sold from $4/cwt. lower to $1 higher last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing service (AMS).

Heading into the weekend, a wide swath of the nation was gearing up for Winter Storm Gia

“Feedyards that were already wet will see more moisture fall from the sky, dashing any hopes that they will dry out anytime soon. Said AMS analysts on Friday. “Muddy feedyards in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa want to get cattle moved out of the poor pen conditions, as cattle performance has been seriously impeded due to above average moisture recently.”  

Lost pounds to weather are supporting Cattle futures and the uptick in cash fed cattle prices. On the other hand, costs are increasing.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.60 higher week to week on Friday. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.70 higher.