WLI

Thursday was a banner day for cash fed cattle with active trade and very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Compared to the previous week, FOB live prices were mostly $9 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $232/cwt., $10 higher in Kansas at $232 with some up to $235, $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $240-$241 and $3-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $240. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $380 and $9 higher in the western Corn Belt at $380.

Cattle futures followed surging cash prices higher.

Live cattle futures closed an average of $2.69 higher ($1.30 higher at the back to $4.50 higher at the front).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.91 higher ($2.50 higher at the back to $5.27 higher at the front).

Cattle futures were trading higher again Friday, after earlier mixed trade.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.69 higher Thursday afternoon at $366.85/cwt. Select was 11¢ lower at $356.61.

Turning to the grain complex, Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.  Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased lower Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 108 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 31 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 162 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 52¢ to 59¢ higher through the front six contracts. 

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday with the hint of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.28 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.68 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on good demand in the Southern Plains to inactive on moderate demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $224-$225/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $225 in Kansas.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $223 in the Texas Panhandle, $222 in Kansas, $235-$237 in Nebraska and $230-$237 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365-$370 in Nebraska and $371 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 28¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $365.16/cwt. Select was 20¢ higher at $356.72.

Turning to the grain complex, futures were higher Wednesday with likely short covering and perhaps some weather premium.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, pressured by less job growth than expected in widely watched ADP^® National Employment Report^™. It pegs private sector employment increasing by 37,000 jobs in May, significantly less than the trade anticipated.

“After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum, says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “Pay growth, however, was little changed in May, holding at robust levels for both job-stayers and job-changers.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 91 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 61 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 67¢ to 72¢ lower. 

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Agricultural producer sentiment improved in May, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. It rose 10 points from the previous month to 158, marking the second consecutive month of improvement and the highest level since May 2021.

More optimism for U.S. agricultural exports and less pessimism about tariff impacts on farm income this year drove improved sentiment.

Both the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations contributed to the overall increase, with the current conditions index up 5 points to 146 and the future expectations index jumping 12 points to 164.

“While the uptick in sentiment is certainly notable, it’s important to recognize that producers are navigating a complex mix of optimism and caution,” explains Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Producers’ expectations for exports and farm income have improved, but concerns remain about capital investment and, for some operations, the potential for labor shortages due to immigration policy changes.”

The May barometer survey took place May 12-16.

Live Cattle futures started strong but were an average of $1.14 lower toward the close Tuesday, as traders awaited the week’s cash direction. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 21¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $223/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $222 in Kansas, $235-$237 in Nebraska and $230-$237 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365-$370 in Nebraska and $371 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 56¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $365.44/cwt. Select was $1.59 lower at $356.52.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday with likely short covering and perhaps some weather premium.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 214 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 156 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 84¢ to 85¢ higher.  

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Although cash cattle prices are historically high, driven by tightening cattle supplies relative to demand, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University suspects cyclically high prices still remain on the horizon when herd rebuilding finally takes hold. He provides perspective on snugging supplies in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Typically beef production increases through the summer supported by heavier weights. This will likely be the case this year. But a detailed examination of placements across different weight groups suggests very tight supplies,” Koontz says. “These marketings-based-on-placements can be calculated using the Cattle on Feed report information from placements in the different weight groups. Assumptions are needed about average daily gain and days on feed to make grade. But once done, these prospective marketings are very tight compared to prior years’ calculations.

“Another two series of inventories calculated from the report that I watch are cattle on feed over 120 days and over 150 days. Both are large and reinforce that the inventory of cattle on feed numbers is weighted to the end of the feeding period. Supplies will be tight for much of the remainder of the year.”

With supply etched, Koontz explains cattle prices will be written by consumer beef demand and communicated through boxed beef cutout values. Although wholesale beef values are currently excellent, he points out fed cattle prices are more aggressive, further pressuring weak packer margins at a time of year when margins are typically among the strongest of the year.

“Therefore, up-moves for cattle will be reasonably limited and focus for the cattle outlook should be any beef market weakness,” Koontz says.

Cattle futures were higher Monday, supported by last week’s strong gains in cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.40 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.04 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $1-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at 221 to mostly $223/cwt., $1-$3 higher in Kansas at mainly $222, $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $235-$237 and $1 to $6 higher in the western Corn Belt at $230-$237. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 higher in Nebraska at $365-$370 and $6-$11 higher in the western Corn Belt at $371.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $2.97 higher at $229.94. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $6.32 higher at $368.06.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 34¢ lower Monday afternoon at $366.00/cwt. Select was $1.46 higher at $358.11.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were lower again Monday, pressured by increasing trade tension between China and the U.S., favorable weather and crop progress.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices recovered from early pressure tied to tariff rhetoric to settle higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 35 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 128 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.01 to $2.34 higher, boosted by OPEC’s decision to maintain, rather than expand production.  

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Choice boxed beef cutout value last week was 16.5% higher year over year, increasing 7.7% over seven weeks, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Cutout values typically increase to a seasonal peak in May but the increase this year has been more pronounced than usual, owing to generally strong beef demand and recently declining beef production,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “The increase in boxed beef cutout values from March to May has been roughly twice the normal seasonal increase over this period.”

Peel points out fed steer slaughter has been 5.5% less year over year during the last seven weeks, while fed heifer slaughter has been 5.8% lower with total fed slaughter down 5.6%.

“This contrasts with 2024, when steer slaughter was up 0.4% and heifer slaughter was down a scant 0.3% year over year, leading to total fed slaughter up 0.3% for the year,” Peel says.

Non-fed slaughter is 9.7% less year over year for the first 19 weeks of this year, according to Peel. He explains beef cow slaughter during that time is 17% less, dairy cow slaughter is 8.4% less and total cow slaughter is down 12.8%.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with week-end and month-end position squaring and profit taking.

Live cattle futures closed an average of 43¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 86¢ lower (32¢ to $1.10 lower), recovering much of steep early-week losses tied to unfounded rumors of New World screwworm being detected in the U.S.  Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.23 lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade through Friday afternoon ranged from inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to light on very good demand elsewhere, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $1-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $221 to mostly $223/cwt., $1-$3 higher in Kansas at mainly $222, $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $235-$237 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $230-$235. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 higher in Nebraska at $365-$370 and $6-$11 higher in the western Corn Belt at $371.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 477,000 head was 93,000 head fewer than the previous week (keeping in mind the holiday-shortened week) and 62,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total estimated cattle slaughter of 12.3 million head was 825,000 head fewer (-6.3%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.7 billion pounds was 323.5 million pounds less (-2.9%).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 25¢ higher Friday afternoon at $366.34/cwt. Select was $3.01 higher at $356.65. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.79 higher and Select was $5.33 higher.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were lower Friday, pressured by favorable weather, renewed trade uncertainty and position squaring to round out the month and week.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ lower through Jly ’26 and then fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 12¢ lower through Aug ’26, and then mostly 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Friday with support from a softer inflation reading than expected.

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.2% month to month in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was 2.1% higher year over year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 62 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 15¢ to 65¢ lower through the front six contracts. 

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Higher average fed cattle prices and lower average cost of gain lifted projected net cattle feeding returns in the most recent Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns from Kansas State University. Keep in mind the projections do not consider price risk management.

Projected net returns for fed steers range from $461.89 per head in May to $243.23 in October with feedlot cost of gain ranging from $98.71/cwt. in July to $102.55 in October. Projected net fed steer returns turn negative for the next three months in the series, ranging from -$65.80 per head in November to -$161.88 in January 2026 with feedlot cost of gain ranging from $101.91 to $104.68/cwt.

Similarly, projected net fed heifer returns are positive from May through November, ranging from $416.22 per head in May to $56.93 in October with feedlots cost of gain ranging from $105.95/cwt. in May to $110.10 in October. Projected net fed heifer returns are negative in December (-$95.14 per head) and January (-$171.53) with feedlot cost of gain ranging from $107.55 to $110.08/cwt.