WLI

Cattle futures rebounded from the early-week sell-down on Thursday, supported by stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices and higher post-holiday wholesale beef values. Lower Corn futures added support.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.82 higher ($1.50 to $2.17 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.10 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on good demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $222/cwt., which was $2 higher in the Texas Panhandle and $2-$3 higher in Kansas.

Trade was limited on good demand in the North with too few transactions to trend. However, private sources suggested higher prices than last week were in play. Last week, FOB live prices were $230-$231 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices were $360-$367. Prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $229-$231 and $360-$365, respectively.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $366.09/cwt. Select was $1.90 higher at $353.64.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower with apparent continued fund selling. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ higher on likely short covering. Soybean futures were 1¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday amid more White House tariff confusion.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 117 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 74 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 92¢ to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts. 

Cattle futures were lower again Wednesday with funds likely taking more risk off the table following the previous session’s jolt.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.16 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.65 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $220/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $219-$221 in Kansas, $230-$231 in Nebraska and $229-$231 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $360-$367 in Nebraska and $360-$365 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.57 higher Wednesday afternoon at $365.42/cwt. Select was 91¢ higher at $351.74.

Grain and Soybean futures ground sideways to lower Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 8¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 244 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 32 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 98 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 37¢ to 69¢ higher through the front six contracts. 

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Beef in cold storage April 30 of 418.1 million pounds was 2% less than the previous month and year, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies of 455.8 million pounds were 11% more than the previous month but 9% less year over year.

Total frozen red meat supplies of 893.6 million pounds were 5% more than the previous month but 6% less than the same time last year.

On the other side of the case, there were 1.1 billion pounds of poultry in freezers, which was slightly less than a month earlier and down 5% from a year earlier.

Cattle futures were lower Monday but off session lows by the end of the day, despite last week’s higher cash fed cattle prices and neutral Cattle on Feed report. There were some unfounded rumors of unfounded rumors that could have spooked funds and set loose the algos early in the session, but there’s no telling.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.25 lower (60¢ lower at the front to $2.27 lower at the back).

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.52 lower (32¢ lower at the back to $2.07 lower at the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

When the counting was finally done last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $220/cwt., unevenly steady in Kansas at $219-$221, mostly $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $230-$231 and mainly $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $230. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$9 higher in Nebraska at $330-$367 and $2-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $360-$365 in a light test.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was 52¢ higher at $226.97/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.07 higher at $361.74.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 30¢ higher Monday afternoon at $361.85/cwt. Select was 49¢ lower at $350.84.

Corn and Wheat futures were lower Tuesday on the improved domestic weather outlook.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 14¢ lower. Soybean futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Tuesday with investors cheering the White House delay on hefty EU tariffs — another day of on-again, off again headline trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 740 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 118 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 461 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 32¢ to 44¢ lower through the front six contracts. 

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Creighton University’s overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose 4 points month to month in May to 44 but remained below growth neutral for the 20^th time in the last 21 months. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak according to bank CEOs,” according to Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Almost one in four bankers rate tariff retaliation from trading partners as the top risk facing farmers in 2025 while 68.0% ranked lower farm commodity prices as the major risk factor for farmers.”

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

The farmland price index slumped below growth neutral for the 12th time in the past 13 month, dropping to 39.6 from 41.7 in April.

“Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on ag land prices. Only 8.0% of bank CEOs are bullish on farmland prices for 2025,” Goss says.

Overall, rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The May confidence index slumped to 30.0 from 36.0 in April.

Cattle futures were mostly higher again Friday, buoyed by the week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices and seasonally stronger wholesale beef values.

Live cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ higher, except for an average of 9¢ lower in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.06 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.09 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.52 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate to good demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to trend in any region, there were some FOB live trades at mostly $222/cwt. in the Southern Plains, where prices last week were mostly $220.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1-$2 higher at $230-$231 in Nebraska and $230 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2 higher at mainly $360, with some up to $370 in Nebraska and some up to $365 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ higher Friday afternoon at $361.55/cwt. Select was $2.37 higher at $351.32.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 570,000 head was 4,000 head more than the previous week but 32,000 head fewer than the same week a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 11.8 million head was 763,000 head fewer (-6.1%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.3 billion pounds was 277.9 million pounds less (-2.6%) than the same time last year.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Friday with threatened tariffs from the Trump Administration and potential profit taking and short covering ahead of the holiday weekend.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. However, they were an average of 15’5¢ higher week to week on Friday, fueled by apparent short covering and speculation ending stocks could decline. 

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ lower through Mar ’26 and then 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices drooped lower Friday beneath the weight of more tariff threats from the White House.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 256 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 188 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 21¢ to 33¢ higher through the front six contracts. 

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral, with slightly more placements and marketings than average estimates ahead of the report.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.6 million head in April, which was 43,000 head fewer (-2.6%) year over year.

In terms of placement weights, 33% went on feed weighing 699 pounds or less, 51% weighing 700-899 pounds and 16% weighing 900 pounds or more.

Marketings in April of 1.8 million head were 47,000 head fewer (-2.5%) than the same month last year.

Cattle on feed May 1 of 11.4 million head were 178,000 head fewer (-1.5%)

Cattle futures were higher Thursday, supported by the week’s stronger cash fed cattle trade and perhaps some positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Pre-report estimates peg April placements and marketings about 3% lower year over year, with the May 1 inventory of cattle on feed down about 1.5%.

Live cattle futures were an average of $1.65 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.05 higher, except for 90¢ lower in waning May.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices ranged from inactive on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to limited on good demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $1-$2 higher in the North at $230-$231/cwt., in Nebraska and $230 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices are mostly $2 higher in Nebraska at mainly $360 with some up to $370. Dressed delivered prices are $2-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $360-$365.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $220 in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.38 higher Thursday afternoon at $360.97/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $348.95.

Grain and Soybean futures took a bit of a breather from recent gains on Thursday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed Thursday, as investors grappled with rising Treasury yields and the House-proposed U.S. budget.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1 point lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 53 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 81¢ to 87¢ lower through the front six contracts. 

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Despite challenges, this is an exciting time to be in the red meat business, says Steve Hanson, chair for the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), and also a rancher, cattle feeder and grain farmer from southwestern Nebraska.

“Our products are better than ever, and international demand is outstanding,” Hanson told participants at this week’s USMEF spring conference in Fort Worth, Texas. “There are many factors we cannot control, so it is important to remain customer-focused and not lose sight of our mission, which is to expand the global footprint for U.S. pork, beef and lamb.”

Randy Blach, CattleFax, CEO provided a broad outlook of the U.S. protein market, analyzing demand trends for beef, pork and poultry. He noted that the beef industry’s heightened focus on quality has paid enormous dividends – not in terms of consumption volume, but in consumers’ willingness to pay for higher-quality cuts.

“When you look at demand across all proteins, chicken is capturing 50% of the stomach but 25% of the wallet,” Blach explained. “Beef, on the other hand, is getting 25% of the stomach and 50% of the wallet. Which would you rather have?”

Blach emphasized exports continue to make critical contributions to the bottom line of U.S. livestock and poultry producers, who collectively export about 17% of total production. The pork sector leads the way at 30%, with beef exports accounting for about 14% of production.