WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on good demand in Kansas, Nebraska and the Western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in Nebraska at $229-$230/cwt. and a few dressed delivered sales at $360-$370. Likewise, there were some early trades in the western Corn Belt at $230 and $360, respectively.

Last week, FOB live prices were $220 in the Southern Plains, mostly $229 in Nebraska and $228-$229 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $358.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 84¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $359.59/cwt. Select was $3.32 higher at $348.28.

Higher wholesale beef values and the hint of stronger cash fed cattle prices helped lift Live Cattle futures Wednesday. Toward the close, they were an average of 54¢ higher (17¢ higher at the back to $1.02 higher at the front).

However, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.09 lower toward the close, except for 2¢ higher in spot May, pressured by the recent increase in Corn futures and some softness in country cash prices, albeit at historically high levels.

Turning to the grain complex, futures continued higher Wednesday, led by Wheat, with likely continued short covering, the softer U.S. dollar and perhaps some weather premium.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Wednesday, as Treasury yields climbed and investors fretted over the potential impact of the proposed U.S. budget if it makes its way through the House.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 816 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 95 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 270 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 50¢ to 69¢ lower through the front six contracts. 

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As the U.S.-China tariff saga unfolds, David Anderson, Extension livestock economist with Texas A&M University provides some perspective on beef trade between the two countries since tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were announced about six weeks ago.

“U.S. exports to China averaged 2.42 metric tons per week during the first quarter of 2025,” Anderson explains, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Following the announcements of tariffs and retaliation, exports dropped dramatically to only 17 metric tons for the week of May 8.  That was the smallest weekly export total since the week of April 11, 2019, when zero tons were exported.”

However, he points out exports to Hong Kong averaged 369 metric tons per week during the first quarter of the year and 600 tons per week since early April. There is nothing definitive, but readers will recall that Hong Kong was commonly regarded as the backdoor for U.S. beef entering China during the years U.S. beef imports were prohibited.

For broader context, Anderson explains fresh and frozen beef muscle cut exports to China, a relatively new phenomenon, never exceeded 1,000 tons for a week until November 2019. Since then, he says China grew to become the third-largest importer of U.S. beef, accounting for about 1.7% of U.S. beef production in 2024.

  “Often in trade, the closing of one market creates new, larger exports to other countries,” Anderson says. “Beef exports to Japan and South Korea over the last six weeks are larger than during the first quarter of the year.  Some more detailed information might be necessary to determine if the increase is normal week-to-week variation, or some redirecting of shipments following the tariff announcement, or finding new sales.”

Wholesale beef prices surged higher Tuesday. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.93 higher Tuesday afternoon at $358.75/cwt. Select was 85¢ higher at $344.96.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $220/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $229 in Nebraska and $228-$229 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $358.

Cattle futures mainly wobbled sideways Tuesday, awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ higher, except for 12¢ lower in near Aug. Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, from an average of 11¢ lower, to an average of 33¢ higher.

Apparent continued short covering and the softer U.S. dollar helped lift Grain and Soybean futures Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 114 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 72 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were narrowly mixed through the front six contracts, from 7¢ lower to 26¢ higher. 

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Cattle feeders’ extraordinary ability to add more pounds to declining cattle numbers and maintain relatively high beef production levels may be approaching a limit, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“It is expected that cattle weights will plateau next year after the feedlot sector notched significant weight gains in fed steers and heifers over the last couple of years,” say ERS analysts in the May Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “As a result, this will not offset the decline in slaughter as it has in previous years when weights trended higher during periods of year-over-year lower slaughter. This is likely due to feedlots being limited in their ability to extend the time on feed beyond the advances made in recent years.”

ERS projects beef production in 2026 to be 5% less year over year at 25.1 billion pounds, the fourth consecutive year of lower production.

“A smaller expected calf crop in 2025, more heifers retained for breeding, and fewer live cattle imports, will contribute to fewer calves placed in feedlots in late 2025 and early 2026. Fewer placements during this period will limit marketings for slaughter in 2026,” ERS analysts say. “… Further tightening of cattle supplies available for placement in feedlots in 2025 and into early 2026 is anticipated to bolster prices next year.”

ERS projects the weighted average five-area direct fed steer price at $222.75/cwt. in 2026, which would be 4% more than this year’s forecast annual average price. Likewise, ERS projects next year’s average feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) 3% higher year over year at $306.25.

Stronger wholesale beef values and last week’s firm to higher cash fed cattle prices helped lift Live Cattle futures Monday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 89¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, from an average of 35¢ lower to an average of 13¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive in major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $220/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $228-$229 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $358.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $1.65 higher at $226.45/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $1.61 higher at $357.67.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.32 higher Monday afternoon at $354.81/cwt. Select was $1.72 higher at $344.11.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Monday with likely short covering.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed a touch higher Monday, following early-session pressure tied to the downgrade in the U.S. credit rating.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 137 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 4 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were narrowly mixed through the front six contracts, from 9¢ lower to 17¢ higher.  

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Pasture and range conditions improved week to week, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending May 18.

Nationwide, 40% of pasture and range was rated as Good (32%) and Excellent (8%), compared to 36% a week earlier and 49% a year earlier. On the bottom side of the scale, 32% was rated Poor (19%) and Very Poor (13%), which was 4% less than the previous week but 12% more year over year.

States with 40% or more of pasture and range conditions rated as Poor and Very Poor include: AZ (91%), Montana (45%), NE (48%), NV (85%), NM (46%) and WY (47%).

Corn planting continued at a rapid pace with 78% in the ground, which was 11% more than the same time last year and 5% more than the five-year average. At 50%, emergence was 12% more year over year and 10% more than average.

Similarly, 66% of soybeans were planted, which was 16% more than the same week last year and 13% more than average. Emergence of 34% was 9% more than the previous year and 11% more than average.

Winter wheat condition eroded week to week with 52% rated as Good (44%) or Excellent (8%), compared to 54% a week earlier and 49% a year earlier. On the other end of scale, 18% was rated as Poor (12%) or Very Poor (6%), the same as the previous week and year. In terms of crop progress 64% of the crop was headed, compared to 67% the previous year and 58% for average.

Cattle futures firmed Friday and gained back some of the steep losses from the previous two sessions, helped along by a bounce in wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher (62¢ to $1.77 higher).

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.61 lower and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.73 lower ($1.12 lower at the front to $3.47 lower at the back).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on good demand in the Southern Plains to light on good demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1-$2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $220/cwt., steady to $2 higher in Kansas at $220 and $1-$3 higher in the North at $228-$229. Dressed delivered prices were $3 higher at $358.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.59 higher Friday afternoon at $352.49/cwt. Select was $3.21 higher at $342.39. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $6.52 higher and Select was $11.22 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 566,000 head was 7,000 head more than the previous week but 31,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 11.3 million head was 733,000 head fewer (-6.1%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 9.8 billion pounds was 262.7 million pounds less (-2.6%).

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Friday. Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower, pressured by planting progress and Wheat futures, with Kansas City Wheat futures closing 7¢ to 11¢ lower.  Soybean futures were fractionally higher to mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Friday as traders seemed emboldened to enter the weekend with optimism over trade deals.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 331 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 98 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 50¢ to 87¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service increased projected feeder steer prices significantly for the remainder of this year, compared to the previous month, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Based on recent price data, assumed adequate forage supplies, and the suspension of feeder cattle from Mexico, ERS increased the projected second-quarter feeder steer price by $30 to $310/cwt. Third- and -fourth quarter prices increased $20 to $302 and $306, respectively. ERS increased the projected annual average feeder steer price by $17.50 to $298.53. Prices are basis a Medium and Large #1 steer weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City.

As reported in Cattle Current Previously, USDA’s Economic Research Service projected this year’s weighted average five-area direct fed steer price significantly higher than the previous month, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Based on recent price strength through early May and tighter fed cattle supplies expected during the second half of the year, projected prices increased $13 in the second quarter to $217/cwt., $10 in the third quarter to $216 and $13 in the fourth quarter to $220. The projected annual average price increased $9 to $214.51.

Beef production for 2025 was projected at 26.4 billion pounds, which was 277 million pounds less than the previous month (-1%). The total would be 561 million pounds less than the prior year (-2.1%). Beef production was forecast lower on tighter cattle supplies, fewer available fed steers and heifers due to import restrictions on cattle from Mexico and reduced slaughter of cattle.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices gained on Thursday with moderate trade and good demand in the Texas Panhandle, Nebraska and the western Corn Belt, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $1-$2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $220/cwt., $1-$4 higher in Nebraska at $229 and $1-$2 higher in the westerner Corn Belt at $227-$229. Dressed delivered prices were $3 higher at $358.

Trade in Kansas was limited on good demand with too few transactions to trend. FOB live prices there last week were $218-$220.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $349.90/cwt. Select was $3.33 higher at $339.18.

However, Cattle futures were sharply lower again Thursday with follow-through pressure from the previous session’s selloff. Growing concern about the potential of New World screwworm reaching the United States hovers in the background.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.06 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.03 lower.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were 21¢ to 34¢ lower, perhaps with some sympathy to lower Crude Oil futures.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 271 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 34 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.24 to $1.36 lower through the front six contracts, pressured by chatter about progress toward a U.S. nuclear deal with Iran, which would boost that nation’s oil exports.