WLI

Cattle futures hit new highs Wednesday and then reversed to close sharply lower with likely profit taking and skittishness over the overbought status and price levels.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.38 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.98 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $218-$219/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $218-$220 in Kansas and $225-$228 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $355.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 74¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $349.36/cwt. Select was $1.38 higher at $335.85.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed again Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ to 11¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally higher to 3¢ higher, except for 9¢ lower in spot May.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 89 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 136 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 74¢ to 87¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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The pace of beef cow slaughter through the first quarter — 20% less year over year at 8% of total slaughter — suggests this year’s national culling rate could drop to levels seen during the last herd expansion, according to Hannah Baker, University of Florida Extension beef and forage economics.

“Heifer slaughter is still too high, as of the April report, to indicate signs of retention,” Baker says in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. “However, the latest quarterly Cattle on Feed report indicated that the percentage of heifers on feed has declined to 38% of all cattle on feed and is expected to keep declining in the coming months.”

On the other hand, Baker points out drought and the ability to retain heifers remains a concern in some areas of the country.

Cattle futures eased lower Tuesday with likely profit taking from the previous session’s strong gains.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher (35¢ to $1.17 higher), except for an average of 32¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 41¢ higher, except for an average of 31¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $218-$219/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $218-$220 in Kansas and $225-$228 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $355.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.96 higher Tuesday afternoon at $350.10/cwt. Select was 76¢ lower at $334.47.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Tuesday. Cooler inflation than expected and follow-through support from the trade talks with China helped lift the S&P 500 and NASDAQ for another day.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1% in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3% before seasonal adjustment.

On the other hand, health care weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 269 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 42 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 301 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.26 to $1.72 higher through the front six contracts.

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The top side of pasture and range conditions improved slightly week to week, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending May 11.

Nationwide, 36% of pasture and range was rated as Good (28%) and Excellent (8%), compared to 35% a week earlier and 47% a year earlier. However, 36% was rated Poor (23%) and Very Poor (13%), which was 3% more than the previous week and 12% more year over year.

States with 40% or more of pasture and range conditions rated as Poor and Very Poor include: AZ (85%), Montana (54%), NE (52%), NV (85%), NM (51%), SD (45%) and WY (42%). According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 30% of the nation’s cattle inventory was in areas affected by drought.

Corn planting continued at a rapid pace with 62% in the ground, which was 15% more than the same time last year and 6% more than the five-year average. At 28%, emergence was 7% more year over year and 7% more than average.

Similarly, 48% of soybeans were planted, which was 14% more than the same week last year and 11% more than average. Emergence of 17% was 2% more than the previous year and 6% more than average.

Winter wheat condition continued to improve week to week with 54% rated as Good (46%) or Excellent (8%), compared to 51% a week earlier and 50% a year earlier. On the other end of scale, 18% was rated as Poor (12%) or Very Poor (6%), the same as last year. In terms of crop progress 53% of the crop was headed, compared to 55% the previous year and 45% for average.

Cattle futures popped higher Monday, helped along by more bullish outside markets and news that the U.S. shuttered the Southern border to cattle, bison and horses once again May 11 due to the spread of New World screwworm.

“The protection of our animals and safety of our nation’s food supply is a national security issue of the utmost importance,” says U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins. “Once we see increased surveillance and eradication efforts, and the positive results of those actions, we remain committed to opening the border for livestock trade. This is not about politics or punishment of Mexico, rather it is about food and animal safety.”

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University explains the border closed initially last November and reopened in early February after additional protocols and inspections were implemented. 

“Thus far in 2025, a total of 197,844 head of feeder cattle have been imported since the border reopened, down 60% year over year for the year-to-date,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. “In 2024, a total of 1.25 million head of feeder cattle were imported, with none in the last five weeks of the year.”

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.82 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.55 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $219/cwt., steady to $2 higher in Kansas at $218-$220, $3-$5 higher in Nebraska at $225-$228 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $225-$228. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $355.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $4.09 higher at $224.80. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $6.69 higher at $356.06.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.17 higher Monday afternoon at $348.14/cwt. Select was $4.06 higher at $335.23.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 18¢ to 26¢ higher, helped by the Chinese trade talks.  

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Major U.S. financial indices roared higher Monday in the wake of the weekend agreement between the United States and China to pause and lower tariffs.

“We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs, will move their tariffs down 115%,” explained Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,160 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 184 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 779 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.00 to $1.18 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service projected this year’s weighted average five-area direct fed steer price significantly higher than the previous month, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Based on recent price strength through early May and tighter fed cattle supplies expected during the second half of the year, projected prices increased $13 in the second quarter to $217/cwt., $10 in the third quarter to $216 and $13 in the fourth quarter to $220. The projected annual average price increased $9 to $214.51.

Beef production for 2025 was projected at 26.4 billion pounds, which was 277 million pounds less than the previous month (-1%). The total would be 561 million pounds less than the prior year (-2.1%). Beef production was forecast lower on tighter cattle supplies, fewer available fed steers and heifers due to import restrictions on cattle from Mexico and reduced slaughter of cattle.

Cattle futures gained early in Friday’s session and then closed lower with likely profit taking.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ lower, except for 42¢ higher in spot Jun.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.45 lower, except for 50¢ higher in spot May.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.19 higher (82¢ higher at the back to $3.57 higher at the front). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 3.52 higher week to week on Friday ($3.02 higher at the front to $4.05 higher at the back).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on good demand in the Southern Plains and light to good demand in in the North through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $218-$219/cwt., steady to $2 higher in Kansas at $218-$220, $3-$5 higher in Nebraska at $225-$228 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $225-$228. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $355.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.92 lower Friday afternoon at $345.97/cwt. Select was $2.03 lower at $331.17. However, week to week on Friday, Choice was $3.07 higher and Select was $5.82 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher with likely short covering ahead of Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. However, Corn futures were an average of 12’2¢ lower through the front six contracts, pressured by planting progress.  

Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower, pressured by crop progress.

Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 7¢ higher, helped along by announced early trade negotiations between China and the U.S. over the weekend.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 119 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points lower. The NASDAQ was up fractionaly.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 76¢ to $1.11 higher through the front six contracts.

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This year’s peak fed steer price may still be a couple of months away if prices follow a similar course to 2024, say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“The seasonal index for fed steer prices indicates that prices typically track steady through May, followed by a gradual move lower through September, and then trend higher through the fourth quarter of the year,” LMIC analysts explain, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “This year, seasonal fed steer prices are tracking slightly higher through April and into the first week of May. Seasonally, the pattern would signal the prices may move lower as Memorial Day approaches. Last year, fed steer prices peaked at $197.09/cwt. in the first week of July.”

For perspective, the weekly weighted average five area direct fed steer price was record high the week ending May 2 at $220.97/cwt., according to LMIC analysts. That was $35.23 more (19%) year over year. They point out the weekly average price has dipped below $200 only three time so far this year.

Cattle futures gained Thursday with higher cash fed cattle prices and stronger Choice wholesale beef values.  

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.22 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.83 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on very good demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $3-$5 higher at $225-$228/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $5 higher in Nebraska at mostly $355. There were some early dressed delivered trades in the western Corn Belt at $355-$360, but too few to trend; prices were $350 last week.

Trade in the Southern Plains was limited on good demand with too few transactions to trend. So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $218-$219 and steady to $2 higher in Kansas at $218-$220.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.74 higher Thursday afternoon at $347.90/cwt. Select was 80¢ lower at $333.20.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday with planting progress once again pressuring grains, while the same fast pace and notions of less crop swapping favored Soybeans.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Thursday, buoyed by news the U.S. struck a trade deal with the United Kingdom, lifting hope that others will follow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 254 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 189 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.77 to $2.15 higher through the front six contracts.

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Cattle prices peak in 2027, according to the recently released U.S. Agricultural Market Outlookfrom the Food and Agricultural Policy Institute at the University of Missouri.

More specifically, the outlook pegs the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price rising to $198.19/cwt. in 2027 and then declining to $169.29 in 2034. Likewise, steer calf prices (600-650 lbs., Oklahoma City)are projected to rise to $307.21 in 2027 and then declining to $250.54 by 2033.

The Outlook provides projections for 2024-2034, using data available in January of this year.

For broader context, the projections peg the U.S. beef cow herd at a low of 27.8 million head when 2026 begins and then growing to a peak of 30.6 million head in 2031 before declining to 29.1 million head in 2034.