WLI

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday but pared losses as the session wore on, as traders took a breather from recent contract highs.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in away Jun. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 69¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on good demand in the Texas Panhandle through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live trades were $1 higher than the previous day at $219/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was light on good demand. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Kansas at $219, compared to Tuesday’s trade of $218-$220. There were also some early dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $352-$355.

Last week, FOB live prices were $222-$223 in Nebraska and $220-$224 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $350.00/cwt., except for a few up to $352 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.48 higher Wednesday afternoon at $346.15/cwt. Select was $1.03 higher at $334.00.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed again Wednesday with planting progress and the positive weather outlook providing pressure.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Wednesday after a volatile trade session. Key news for the day included the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain steady interest rates.

“Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” according to an FOMC statement. “… The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 284 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 48 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.09 to $1.17 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports continue to show resilience, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef export value in March was the highest since June, up 4% year over year at $922 million, while export volume of 109,330 metric tons (mt) was 1% higher. Export value per head of fed slaughter was 3% higher year over year and the seventh highest on record at $466.77. First-quarter export value per-head of fed slaughter was also up 3% at $421.56.

“Despite a great deal of uncertainty, global demand for U.S. beef remains robust and resilient,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “The March export results confirm this, with demand trending higher in Taiwan and Mexico, reaching record levels in Central America and holding up well in Japan and Korea. Although we anticipate that China’s retaliatory tariffs and expired plant registrations will have a more drastic impact on April and May exports, the U.S. industry’s efforts to diversify markets and broaden U.S. beef’s global footprint are definitely paying dividends.”

March pork exports increased 3% year-over-year to 269,344 mt, valued at $769.7 million (up 4%). Export value per head slaughtered was the second highest on record at $73.91.

Lower outside markets helped keep Cattle futures in check Tuesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were unchanged to an average of 21¢ higher, except for 7¢ lower in spot Jun. Feeder Cattle futures were unchanged to an average of 22¢ higher, except for 52¢ lower in spot May.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on good demand in the Texas Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live trades were mainly steady at $218/cwt., but a few up to $219.

Trade in Kansas was light on good demand. FOB trades so far this week are steady to $2 higher at $218-$220.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $222-$223 in Nebraska and $220-$224 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $350.00/cwt., except for a few up to $352 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 higher Tuesday afternoon at $344.67/cwt. Select was $4.90 higher at $332.97.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ higher to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Tuesday, amid chaotic comments from the Trump administration regarding progress in brokering tariff deals with U.S. trading partners.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 389 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 43 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 154 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.58 to $1.89 higher through the front six contracts, with the rebound likely attributed to technical buying.

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Agricultural producer sentiment improved month to month in April, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. It rose 8 points to 147, buoyed by increased producer optimism about current and future conditions. The Index of Current Conditions climbed 9 points to 141, while the Index of Future Expectations increased 8 points to 152.

Improved sentiment came amid ongoing tensions with many of U.S. agriculture’s largest trading partners, including Mexico and Canada. Notably, a majority of producers said they believe the increased use of tariffs will ultimately benefit the U.S. agricultural economy.

“Producers seem to be gaining confidence in the ag economy’s longer-term outlook in spite of concerns they have about the impact of tariffs,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “This month’s results suggest some producers are starting to look beyond near-term uncertainty and focus more on positioning their farms for the future.”

The April survey included several questions focused on the impact of the U.S.’s tariff policy on U.S. agriculture. Even with the improvement in overall sentiment, farmers remain concerned about the near-term effects of U.S. trade policy. Over half (56%) of respondents said they expect the U.S. tariff policy to have a negative or very negative impact on their farm’s income in 2025, and 53% anticipate some difficulty in obtaining inputs as a result of higher import tariffs. Among those expecting supply challenges, fertilizer was the primary cited concern, followed by parts for farm machinery and electronics and crop chemicals.

The April barometer survey took place between April 14-21.

Cattle futures extended gains Monday with follow-through support from last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.43 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.05 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $6 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $218/cwt., $5-$8 higher in Kansas at $218, $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $222-$223 and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $222-$223.

Dressed delivered prices were $7-$10 higher in Nebraska at $350 with a few up to $352, and $8-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $350.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $4.65 higher at $220.97/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $7.95 higher at $349.37.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ higher Monday afternoon at $343.57/cwt. Select was $2.72 higher at $328.07.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday with pressure from planting progress and favorable domestic weather.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 13¢ to 14¢ lower in the front two contracts and then 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 8¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, but off of session lows as traders continue uncertain of the U.S. tariff fallout.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 95¢ to $1.27 lower through the front six contracts.

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Recent rains in the Southern Plains brighten herd expansion prospects for the region, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Peel explains heifer retention could come with increased unplanned (impulse) breeding of yearling heifers that were categorized as “other” heifers in the Jan. 1 Cattle report rather than as “replacement” heifers.

“Historical data shows that an average of roughly 13% of ‘other’ heifers is typically bred each year as part of the total bred beef heifer supply the following January,” Peel says. “During the last herd expansion from 2014-2019, this percentage increased to over 18%, meaning that an additional 300,000-400,000 head of heifers were diverted from the feeder supply to breeding for the cow herd. A slower pace is expected in 2025, but impulse heifers breeding is likely to increase this year.”

Of course, beef producers can also expand the herd via increased retention of heifer calves. Peel explains these would be generally available to breed in 2026 and enter the cow herd in 2027. He notes fall-born heifers weaned in the next couple of months could be bred in late 2025 and calve in the fall of 2026.

“Heifer retention may be starting but the pace appears to be relatively slow, certainly much slower than the last herd expansion a decade ago,” Peel says. “If heifer retention is accelerating, the most immediate impact will be reduced feeder cattle supplies available for placement in feedlots.”

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, continuing to ride bullish fundamentals and stronger cash prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.88 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.38 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.25 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.85 higher during the same period (52¢ higher at the back to $4.42 higher at the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly limited on good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $6 higher in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $218/cwt., $5-$8 higher in Kansas at mostly $218, $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $222-$223 and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $222-$223.

Dressed delivered prices were $7-$10 higher in Nebraska at $350 and $8-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $350.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 27¢ lower Friday afternoon at $342.90/cwt. Select was $1.07 higher at $325.35. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $6.42 higher and Select was $5.24 higher.  

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, helped along by the week’s bullish outside markets and what was considered to be a sign of easing tariff tensions with China.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher, except for 3¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 11¢ to 13¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by a stronger national employment report than expected.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in April rose by 6¢ to $36.06. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 564 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 82 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 266 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 56¢ to 95¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Cattle feeders continue to demonstrate their ability to add days and pounds to fed cattle.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 559,000 head was 4,000 head more than the previous week but 63,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 10.1 million head was 649,000 head less (-6.0%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 8.8 billion pounds was 214.3 million pounds less (-2.4%).

At the same time, Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University points out the percentage of carcasses grading Choice and higher continues to increase.

“Choice carcasses represented about 50-55% of the cattle in the 2000s but have been more recently hovering in the 75% range,” Maples says, in the most recent issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “Genetic improvements, cow-calf and stocker management practices and feedlot technologies have played roles in this increase. It is also worth noting the more recent increase in carcasses grading prime. About 3-4% of cattle graded prime in the 2000s compared to 10-12% in recent years. For the past few weeks, more cattle have graded prime than select.”

Cattle futures were mainly lower Thursday, despite the previous day’s surge in cash fed cattle prices. Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 52¢ lower, except for an average of 79¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.39 lower, except for 47¢ higher in spot May with likely follow-through technical pressure.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $6 higher in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $218/cwt., $5-$8 higher in Kansas at mostly $218, $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $222-$223 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $222.

Dressed delivered prices are $7-$10 higher in Nebraska at $350 and $8-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $350.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.14 lower Thursday afternoon at $343.17/cwt. Select was $2.26 higher at $324.28.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday with likely influence from weekly export sales.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 4¢ lower. Net U.S. corn export sales for the week ending April 25 were 12% less than the previous week and 13% less than the prior four-week average, according to the weekly USDA export sales report.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower after 7¢ higher in spot May. Net U.S. wheat export sales were down noticeably from the previous week and down 24% from the prior four-week average.

Soybean futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Net U.S. soybean export sales 55% higher week to week and 27% more than the prior four-week average.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 83 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 35 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 264 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 73¢ to 82¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Projected net cattle feeding returns improved month to month, mainly reflecting higher fed cattle prices, according to the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns.

Projected net returns for fed steers during the next six months range from $170.44 per head in September to $359.28 in May. Projected feedlot cost of gain during the same period ranges from $99.91/cwt. in May to $104.40 in September.

Keep in mind that projections reflect cash only without price risk management.

Projected returns for fed heifers are similarly positive, ranging from $171.49 per head in September to $314.48 in June. Projected feedlot cost of gain ranges from $106.60/cwt. In May to $111.89 in September.