WLI

Cattle futures moved higher Tuesday, except for slightly lower in nearby Live Cattle contracts.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 50¢ higher, except for an average of 37¢ lower in the front three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $230-$231 in Kansas and $240 in the North where dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 43¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $372.50. Select was $2.11 lower at $347.94.

Grain futures were mixed Tuesday with Corn and Soybeans down on crop ratings and an improved weather outlook.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were unchanged to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly higher Tuesday with positive quarterly corporate earnings across the broader economy, while tech stocks faced pressure.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 82 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 37¢ to 84¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Heifer and beef cow slaughter suggest that the beef cow herd may stabilize and possibly increase fractionally by the end of the year, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. He explains heifer slaughter is 3.5% less year over year so far in 2025, while beef cow slaughter is 16.5% less.

“If the current beef cow slaughter rate persists for the remainder of the year, herd culling in 2025 may drop below 9.0%, a level that is certainly consistent with herd rebuilding,” Peel says.

Moreover, Peel points out drought conditions have diminished significantly in much of the eastern two-thirds of the country and have improved during the past two months in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. At the same time, he explains drought continues to expand and deepen in the west, Pacific Northwest and across the Northern Plains areas of Montana and North Dakota.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 30% of the nation’s cattle were in areas affected by abnormal dryness or drought compared to 39% at the same time last year.

Nationwide, 43% of range and pasture was in Good (32%) and Excellent (11%) condition, compared to 40% a year ago, according to the weekly Crop Progress report for the week ending July 20. On the other end of the scale, 28% was rated as Poor (17%) or Very Poor (11%) compared to 29% last year.

States with 35% of pasture and range ranked as Poor or Very Poor included Arizona (78%), Montana (56%), Nevada (90%), New Mexico (42%) and Oregon (41%).

Peel notes pasture and range conditions in the eight western states (AZ, CA, ID, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA) include 39.9% in Poor and Very Poor conditions, more than last year and the five-year average. He explains the same can be said of Central Plains states (CO, KS, MT, NE, ND, SD, WY) where 27.5% are in Poor or Very Poor condition.

“Although some producers are still being impacted by drought, most of the current drought regions have relatively low beef cow numbers and would not offset increases in other regions,” Peel says.

Cattle futures gained ground Monday, buoyed by the discount to cash, as well as ongoing strong cash demand for feeder cattle.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.92 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.76 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $230-$231 in Kansas and $240 in the North where dressed delivered prices were $380.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was 57¢ higher at 237.78/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 15¢ higher at $379.36.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.48 lower Monday afternoon at $372.07. Select was $1.44 lower at $350.05.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday, pressured by likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday with the primary support coming from Big Tech.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 19 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 78 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 3¢  to 34¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Among other market anomalies at historic price heights, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee points out prices for lightweight calves have continued to defy seasonal tendencies.

“Lightweight calf prices typically peak in March and April before declining through the summer and fall months,” Griffith says, in his weekly market comments. “This year, the price of lightweight calves has continued to increase with declines in random weeks along the way. One would assume prices will soften during the fall months when the majority of spring born calves make their way to market, but the seasonal decline may not be as magnified as the historical averages would predict.”

As producers navigate historic prices on both sides of the transaction, Griffith emphasizes the need for risk management strategies.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with likely week-end profit taking.

Live cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ lower (12¢ lower in spot Aug to $1.00 lower). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.39 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 77¢ higher (12¢ higher toward the front to $1.45 higher toward the back).

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed week to week on Friday, from an average of 96¢ lower in the front four contracts to an average of $1.62 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive in the Southern Plains to light on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $230/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $230-$231, steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $240 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $240. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 27¢ higher Friday afternoon at $373.55. Select was $2.35 lower at $351.49. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $5.09 lower and Select was $15 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 563,000 head was 5,000 head fewer than the previous week and 26,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 16.2 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-6.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 14.1 billion pounds was 480 million pounds less (-3.3%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, buoyed by likely technical buying and the hotter weather outlook.

Corn futures closed 6¢ higher through Jly ’26 and then fractionally higher to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices wavered Friday with more tariff rhetoric from the White House.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 142 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 10 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ higher to 20¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Year-to-date Beef cow slaughter and total cow slaughter through June were significantly lower year of year, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

Specifically, LMIC analysts say total cow slaughter was down 12% or about 345,000 head, while beef cow slaughter was 17% less or about 100,000 head.

“The double-digit decline in total cow slaughter through June is supporting slaughter cow prices,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “At the start of the year, the slaughter cow price was $121.46/cwt. and steadily increased to $167.33 by the end of June, marking an increase of +38% ($45.87/cwt.). Since the recent peak price at the end of June, the slaughter cow price has moved seasonally lower with the first two weeks reported at $163.99 and $160.65.”

In the near term, they say cow slaughter is likely to continue tracking below year-ago levels, which is expected to continue supporting slaughter cow prices.

Cattle futures wobbled Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction while wholesale beef values continue their seasonal decline.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 48¢ lower, except for 2¢ higher in the back contract.  Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, from unchanged to an average of 34¢ lower in the front four contracts and then an average of 92¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to limited on moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in Kansas at $231/cwt. Last week, FOB live prices were $228-$230 in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $230 in Kansas.

In the North, trade was light on moderate demand.

There were some early dressed delivered sales in Nebraska steady at $380. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades $1-$2 higher at $242.

In the western Corn Belt, early live FOB trades were unevenly steady at $237-$240. Although too few to trend, there were some early dressed delivered sales, Steady at $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 43¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $373.28. Select was $4.07 lower at $353.84.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower with an apparent pause in short covering after recent weather premiums. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, buoyed by positive quarterly corporate earnings reports.

Positive news also included 7,000 fewer initial unemployment insurance claims week to week, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Retail sales last month were also more than expected at $720.1 billion, up 0.6% month to month and up 3.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 229 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 153 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were  87¢ to $1.22 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised expected feeder cattle prices for the remainder of this year and next in the July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, based on recent price data and continuation of the import ban on Mexican cattle.

Compared to the previous month, ERS increased the projected average feeder steer price $6 in the third and fourth quarters to $312/cwt. and $314, respectively for an annual average price $3.51 higher at $301.29. Estimated prices for the first quarter next year also increased $6 to $307 for an annual 2026 average price $6 higher at $312.25. Price are basis a Medium and Large #1 steer weighing 750-800 lbs., trading at Oklahoma City.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS left projected average five-area direct fed steer prices unchanged for the remainder of this year, compared to the previous month, in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Prices were forecast at $226/cwt. in the third quarter and $229 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $221.31. Next year’s forecast annual average price was $229 with $227 in the first quarter.

That was with this year’s beef production estimated 170 million pounds less than the previous month at 26.2 billion pounds. The total would be 796 million pounds less (-2.9%) than last year.

Cattle futures extended gains Wednesday, supported by supply fundamentals and the cash premium to Live Cattle futures.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.47 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.56 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $228-$230/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mostly $230 in Kansas, $240-$241 in Nebraska and mostly $240 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.87 lower Wednesday afternoon at $372.85. Select was $4.67 lower at $357.91.

Corn and Soybean futures gained Wednesday with support appearing to include weather premium on the outlook for elevated temperatures.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 15¢ to 18¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday following a turbulent trading session driven by political news.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 231 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 19 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 52 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were mostly 2¢ to 9¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Bernt Nelson, American Farm Bureau Federation economist provides additional perspective to the U.S./Mexico border closure in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

“The U.S. imports 1.2-1.5 million head of cattle from Mexico every year. These are mostly feeder cattle destined for feedlots and ultimately beef production,” Nelson explains. “U.S. cattle slaughter was about 31.9 million head in 2024. In terms of production, 1.5 million head would be about 4% of 2024 slaughter. This is a significant portion of the market and while other fundamental factors like strong demand are currently having a bigger impact, this drop in supply will put upward pressure on cattle prices.”

Looking ahead, Nelson saysthe most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates assumes the border will remain closed through the forecast period. Even so, he points out USDA’s Economic Research Service increased estimated beef production for next year by 540 million pounds, compared to the previous month’s projection, based on increased expected feedlot placements in the second half of this year.