WLI

Cattle futures closed lower Monday, pressured by the sinking equities and perhaps added pressure from last week’s Cattle on Feed report which indicated more placements than expected last month.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ lower, except for 20¢ higher in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.78 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4-$6 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $208-$210/cwt., $6 higher in Kansas at $210, $4-$6 higher in Nebraska at $212-$214 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $212. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$12 higher in Nebraska at $332-$340 and $7-$8 higher in the western Corn Belt at $335.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $3.93 higher at $211.63/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $9.10 higher at $336.81.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.00 higher Monday afternoon at $333.52/cwt. Select was $3.22 higher at $318.77.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday, with little direction other than turbulence in the outside markets.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Monday, fueled concerns about the growing conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 971 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 124 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 415 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.29 to $1.38 lower through the front six contracts.

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The latest Cattle on Feed report could point to initial U.S. beef cow herd expansion, says Derell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. There were 4.38 million heifers on feed April 1, which was 3.9% less than the previous year. According to Peel, heifers on feed represented 37.6% of the mix, which was 4.3% less than January’s heifer inventory, representing the lowest quarterly total since July 2021 and the lowest percentage since April 2020.

“The heifer percentage has averaged over 39% for the past 16 quarters,” Peel says in weekly market comments. “This may be the first solid evidence that some heifer retention is beginning. It is not definitive nor very strong yet – the current heifer on-feed percentage is still fractionally above the long-term average percentage. During herd expansion the heifer percentage is expected to drop below 35% for several quarters. The next quarterly update in July may confirm the declining heifer on-feed percentage and heifer retention if the percentage drops below 37%.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in the western Corn Belt to inactive on very light demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4-$6 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $208-$210/cwt., $6 higher in Kansas at $210, $4-$6 higher in Nebraska at $212-$214 and $4-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $212-$215. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$12 higher in Nebraska at $332-$340 and $7-$8 higher in the western Corn Belt at $335.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.38 lower Friday afternoon at $331.51/cwt. Select was 84¢ lower at $315.55.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 576,000 head was 12,000 head more than the previous week but 42,000 head fewer than the same week a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 9.0 million head was 530,000 head fewer (-5.6%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 7.6 billion pounds was 147.2 million pounds less (-1.8%).

Equity and futures markets were closed Friday in observance of Good Friday. Cattle futures trended higher during the week, supported by stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $6.27 higher week to week on Thursday ($4.25 higher at the back to $8.98 higher at the front.

Week to week on Thursday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $9.41 higher.

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Retail beef prices continued to trend higher through the first quarter of 2025.

“In March, the all-fresh retail beef price reached a record of $8.42 per pound, up +6.8% (54¢ per pound) from the prior year,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The ground beef price surged to a record of $6.14 per pound in March, up +11.1% (62¢ per pound) from last year. Roasts were at $7.99 per pound in March, essentially unchanged from last month’s record of $8.00 per pound, and up +8.1% (60¢ per pound) from last year. Steaks were $11.92 per pound, an increase of +3.4% (39¢ per pound) from the same month last year.”

For broader perspective, LMIC analysts say the retail pork price was $4.95 per pound in March, near the record high of $5.04 in October 2022. The retail bacon price in March was just below $7 per pound at $6.98 per pound, an increase of +5.6% (37¢ per pound) from the prior year.

The broiler composite retail chicken price of $2.45 per pound in March was 2¢ per pound more than last year. Eggs were a record-high $6.23 per pound in March, more than double the $2.99 per pound the prior year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were moderate in the Texas Panhandle through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $4 higher at $208/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on light-to-moderate demand with too few transactions to trend. However, private sources were reporting higher prices in the North, too.

Last week, FOB live prices were $204 in Kansas and $208 in the North, where dressed delivered prices were $327-$328.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $332.90/cwt. Select was $2.00 higher at $316.39.

Cattle futures continued higher Thursday, supported by higher cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 92¢ higher (12¢ higher toward the back to $2.67 higher in spot Apr), except for 25¢ lower in away-Aug.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.50 higher (22¢ higher toward the back to $3.37 higher in spot Apr), except for an average of 9¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Grain and Soybean futures were mainly lower Thursday, with likely profit taking and positioning ahead of the long weekend.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, pressured by tech and health care.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 527 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 20 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.77 to $1.98 higher through the front six contracts.

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Depending on what the trade factored in, Thursday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report might be viewed as a touch bearish with more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.8 million head in March, which was 89,000 head more (5.1%) than the previous year and 1.4% more than expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 34% went of feed weighing less than 699 lbs., 54% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 12% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in March of 1.7 million head were 18,000 head more (1.1%) than a year earlier, slightly more than pre-report expectations.

Cattle on feed April 1 of 11.6 million head were 188,000 fewer (-1.6%) than the previous year, which was in line with expectations.

The inventory included 7.3 million steers and steer calves, down slightly from the previous year. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.4 million head, down 4% from the same time in 2024.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, continuing to backfill the gap left by tariff pressures. Positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report — due out Thursday rather than the usual Friday — could have lent added support. Estimates ahead of the report peg March placements about 3.5% higher year over year and the on-feed inventory April 1 down close to 2%.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.23 higher (27¢ higher at the back to $2.27 higher at the front), except for 15¢ lower in away-Aug.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ higher (45¢ higher at the back to $1.65 higher toward the front), except for 5¢ lower in Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the western Corn Belt to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $204/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $208 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $327-$328.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.90 lower Wednesday afternoon at $333.53/cwt. Select was 85¢ lower at $314.39.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday, helped along by the lower U.S. dollar.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks and tariff-related cost increases.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 699 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 120 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 516 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.00 to $1.28 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service increased expected feeder cattle prices for the remainder of this year, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Based on price data through early April and weaker expected first-quarter feedlot placements, compared to the previous month, forecast prices increased $7 in the second quarter to $280/cwt., $8 in the third quarter to $282 and $7 in the fourth quarter to $286. The annual average price increased $6.28 to $281.03. Prices are basis Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS analysts note 15% fewer calves and feeder cattle traded at auction, direct and via video-internet during the first two months of 2025 than the same period last year, as reported in the National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary.

“This is likely due to a 75% year-over-year decline in feeder cattle imports due to restrictions on cattle from Mexico over the first two months of the year,” ERS analysts say. “This has led to feedlots in Kansas and Texas placing 5% and 21% fewer cattle, respectively, in January and February, compared to the same period last year. Although, the weekly volume of feeder cattle imports from Mexico is expected to improve moving forward, annual volume is projected below year-ago levels.”

As reported in Cattle Current last week, the ERS increased the forecast five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year, compared to the previous month’s outlook, in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Based on forecast strong consumer beef demand, projected prices increased $3 to $205/cwt. in the first quarter, $6 in the second quarter to $204, $8 in the third quarter to $206 and $7 in the fourth quarter to $207.

Compared to the previous month’s outlook, beef production was projected 15 million pounds more year over year at 26.7 billion pounds. If so, it would be 288 million pounds less than last year (-1.1%). The increased estimate for this year was based on heavier projected dressed weights and higher cow and bull slaughter, partially offset by lower steer and heifer slaughter.

Cattle futures were higher again Tuesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 70¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.44 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $204/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $208 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $327-$328.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 13¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $335.43/cwt. Select was 61¢ lower at $315.24.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Monday with likely continued profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased lower Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 155 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 8 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 1¢ to 30¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Consumer financial sentiment may be even more influential on meat demand than income itself, according to a recent Meat Demand Monitor

special report by Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University and Justin Bina, from the Arizona State University agricultural economics department.

“To paraphrase, income stability (ideally growth) is likely necessary but not itself sufficient for meat demand support if the public is highly concerned about their finances,” Tonsor explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

With that mind, Tonsor notes the decades-low level of consumer confidence portrayed by the recent closely watched University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.

“U.S. consumer sentiment has declined by historic magnitudes so far in April,” Tonsor says. “Reaching pessimistic levels last seen in the early 1980s, consumers hold elevating expectations for inflation

and unemployment.

More specifically, consumers reflected by the University of Michigan data expect inflation to be 6.7% a year down the road and unemployment to be the highest since 2009.

“Recent years have been characterized by strong demand for U.S. beef, and hopefully for industry stakeholders, that can persist,” Tonsor says. “That said, macroeconomic history lessons and development of associated ‘storm clouds’ should not simply be ignored.”

Bottom line, Tonsor emphasizes never taking consumer beef demand for granted.