WLI

Cattle futures were higher again Monday, as outside markets continued to improve.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.36 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.22 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Southern Plains at $204/cwt. and $2-$5 lower in the North at $208. Dressed delivered prices were $7-$8 lower at $327-$328.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $3.44 lower last week at $207.70/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $8.74 lower at $327.73.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.41 higher Monday afternoon at $335.63/cwt. Select was $1.89 higher at $315.85.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Monday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 312 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 42 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 107 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 13¢ to 15¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Nationwide, calves and feeder cattle sold $2-$6/cwt. lower in the North Central and Southeast regions, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Prices were $7-$12 lower in the South Central region.

“Quite a few sale barns in many areas noted lighter-than-normal supply partially due to the uncertainty in the markets,” AMS analysts say.

Trade volume for the week of 177,000 head reported at auction, direct and via video-internet was 55,000 head fewer than the previous week and about 29,000 head fewer than the same week last year.

Drought conditions in the Plains also could be contributing to lighter demand.

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, following stronger equity markets.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.15 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.47 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 80¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of $2.45 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.57 higher during the same period.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2-$5 lower at $208/cwt. in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $7-$8 lower at $327-$328.

The previous week, live FOB prices were $208 in the Southern Plains.

Wholesale beef prices softened. Choice boxed beef cutout value was 7¢ lower Friday afternoon at $334.22/cwt. Select was $1 lower at $313.96.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 564,000 head was 27,000 head fewer than the previous week and 34,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 8.4 million head was 483,000 head fewer (-5.4%) than the same week a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 7.4 billion pounds was 126.4 million pounds less (-1.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Friday.

Corn futures were mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher, supported by the week’s U.S. export sales, lower U.S. dollar and added weather premium. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 20’3¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 15¢ to 20¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, despite declining consumer confidence. The closely watched University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment sank 11% month to month in April and was down 34% year over year. Consumer inflation expectations for the next year jumped 1.7% month to month to 6.7%, the highest reading since 1981.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 619 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 95 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 337 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 82¢ to $1.43 higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite swirling volatility across equity market and many agricultural commodities over the last several weeks, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) point out feedstuff prices remained relatively stable.

“Corn prices in Omaha have traded within a 10-cent per bushel range since late February with one week dipping outside of that range,” LMIC analysts explain in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Soybean meal prices stayed within a $10 per ton band in Central Illinois over the six-week period but then dipped below that in the first week of April. This is quite a contrast to crude oil prices that have moved to the lowest prices in over three years and stock market indices that touched their lowest values since late 2023.”

Citing the latest monthly projections from the USDA-World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB), global demand for U.S. corn remains optimistic.

“The corn export projection was raised to 2.55 billion bushels from the prior projection of 2.45 billion bushels,” LMIC analysts say. “This is the biggest U.S. corn export volume since the 2020-2021 crop year when exports totaled 2.747 billion bushels.”

The WAOB held expected corn prices for the current crop year (ending in August) unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. However, LMIC projected the average price at $4.60 per bushel, up 10¢ from the prior month.

LMIC analysts explain their price forecasts make slight adjustments based on variations in livestock and poultry assumptions. Plus, their forecast includes a projection for the 2025-26 corn crop year price.

Keeping in mind the significant increase in corn planting projected in the recent USDA Prospective Plantings report, LMIC analysts say, “The corn price forecast for the 2025-2026 crop year had been expected to hold up close to this year’s value in the $4.40-$4.60 range. The larger corn production coming from more planted acres, matched up against steady assumptions for export and domestic usage, lowers the average corn price forecast for 2025-2026 into the $4.00-$4.20 range.”

Cattle futures were lower Thursday, giving back a fair bit of the previous day’s gains as equity markets lost ground.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.09 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.50 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on slow to moderate demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. So far this week, FOB live prices are $2-$5 lower at $208/cwt. and dressed delivered prices are $7-$8 lower at $327-$328.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $208 in the Southern Plains and $210-$213 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $335.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday with Corn and Soybeans receiving support from lower ending stocks in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were 3¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 15¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Thursday with continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,014 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 188 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 737 points.

Through midafternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.57 to $1.96 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the forecast five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year, compared to the previous month’s outlook, in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Based on forecast strong consumer beef demand, projected prices increased $3 to $205/cwt. in the first quarter, $6 in the second quarter to $204, $8 in the third quarter to $206 and $7 in the fourth quarter to $207.

Beef production was projected 15 million pounds more year over year at 26.7 billion pounds. If so, it would be 288 million pounds less than last year (-1.1%). The increase was based on heavier projected dressed weights and higher cow and bull slaughter, partially offset by lower steer and heifer slaughter.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for more exports, reduced feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Ending stocks were projected 75 million bushels less than the previous month at 1.5 billion.

The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.

Wheat

The supply and demand outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat was for larger supplies, slightly smaller domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks were raised 27 million bushels to 846 million, 22% more than last year.

The season average farm price was unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.

Soybeans

The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2024/25 included higher imports and crush, and lower ending stocks. Soybean ending stocks were lowered 5 million bushels to 375 million.

The forecast U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 was unchanged at $9.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price was lowered $10 to $300 per short ton and the soybean oil price was raised 2¢ to 45¢ cents per pound.

Cattle futures plunged lower Friday with follow-through, tariff-related pressure — limit-down in some contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $6.00 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $7.81 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand in the Southern Plains to light on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1-$2 lower in the Southern Plains at $208/cwt. steady to $3 lower in Nebraska at $210 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $213. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $335, the low end of last week’s range.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 8¢ higher Friday afternoon at $338.45/cwt. Select was 66¢ lower at $317.18.

Last week’s estimated total cattle slaughter of 591,000 head was 18,000 head fewer than the previous week and 23,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 7.9 million head was 448,000 head fewer (-5.4%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 6.9 billion pounds was 114.9 million pounds less (-1.6%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mostly lower Friday.

Corn futures were mostly 1¢ lower, except for fractionally higher to 2¢ higher in old-crop contracts. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 19¢ to 34¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices spiraled lower Friday in response to new U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs by China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2,231 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 322 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 962 points.

Through midafternoon WTI were $4.20 to $4.96 lower.

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U.S. beef exports lost some steam in February, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports of 98,198 metric tons (mt) were 5.5% less than a year earlier, while value declined 4% to just over $800 million.

However, February exports increased year-over year to South Korea, Canada, Egypt and the Philippines, and reached the highest value on record to Panama.

“It was encouraging to see beef exports to Korea trend higher despite considerable economic and political headwinds, and Canada’s demand for U.S. beef has been very robust to start the year,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “But exports to China lost momentum in February, likely due in part to the slowdown after Chinese New Year and the questions about plant eligibility. Unfortunately, China has still failed to address the issue of beef plant renewals.”

U.S. pork, beef and poultry plants and cold storage facilities were due for a five-year eligibility renewal by China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) in February and March of this year. Many Pork and poultry plants were renewed on the March 16 expiration date, but GACC still has not renewed the eligibility of any U.S. beef establishments, and the majority of U.S. beef production is now ineligible for China.

“This impasse definitely hit our March beef shipments even harder, and the severe impact will continue until China lives up to its commitments under the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement,” Halstrom says.

China also announced additional retaliatory duties of 34%, to take effect April 10, in response to new U.S. tariffs. This will create further obstacles for U.S. pork and beef exports to China, according to Halstrom, who notes that new U.S. tariffs have also created uncertainty for buyers of U.S. red meat in other destinations where retaliation could impact market access and prices.

“USMEF is hopeful that instead of retaliating, other trading partners will choose to lower trade barriers for U.S. exports,” he said. “This would certainly ease the concerns of importers and reduce volatility in the global markets.”

Steep and far-ranging U.S. tariffs announced by the Trump administration rattled equities and Cattle futures markets Thursday. Along with continued uncertainty surrounding the tariffs and their implementation, worries abound that they will increase inflation, disrupt supply chains and slow economic growth the world over.

Cattle futures sank Thursday. Tariffs themselves may have little impact on cattle markets directly. However, the tariffs increase risk of slowing domestic economic growth and potential economic recession which could impact consumer beef demand.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.55 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.03 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in the Southern Plains to light on limited demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some early dressed delivered trades at $335-$345/cwt. in Nebraska and some early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $213.

Last week, FOB live prices were $209-$210 in the Southern Plains and $213 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335-$345.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday. Although the new the U.S. tariffs applied pressure, Grain futures faded some heat, given the exclusion of agricultural products covered by the U.S., Mexico and Canada Trade Agreement.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 17¢ to 19¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices plunged Thursday in response to new U.S. tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,679 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 274 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 1,050 points.