WLI

Cattle futures bounced higher Monday, supported by another day of lower Corn futures, the post-holiday bounce in wholesale beef values and thoughts that cash fed cattle prices could improve this week.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.40 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.04 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $224/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $224-$225 in Kansas, $230-$232 in Nebraska and $230-$234 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $368.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.06 higher Tuesday afternoon at $393.04. Select was 93¢ higher at $378.46.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Tuesday, pressured once more by favorable weather and trade uncertainty.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday amid confusion surrounding ever-changing tariff announcements.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 165 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 5 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 32¢ to 54¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, buoyed by firmer cash fed cattle prices as last week progressed and by sharply lower Corn futures.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.70 higher (62¢ higher at the back to $2.20 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.46 higher (72¢ higher in the back contract to $4.57 higher toward the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly steady in the Texas Panhandle at $224/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $224-$225, steady in Nebraska at $230-$232 and unevenly steady in the western Corn Belt at $230-$234. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $368 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $368 in a light test.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB fed steer price last week was just 8¢ lower at $229.43/cwt. The dressed delivered fed steer price was 22¢ lower at $369.30.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.23 higher Monday afternoon at $390.98. Select was 91¢ lower at $377.53.

Estimated total cattle slaughter of 474,000 head was 47,000 head fewer than the same week a year ago. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 15.1 million head was 1 million head fewer (-6.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 13.1 billion pounds was 456.4 million pounds less (-3.4%).

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday, pressured by favorable weather and trade uncertainty.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were mainly 11¢ to 16¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 7¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were 19¢ to 28¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Monday amid another round of tariff uncertainty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 422 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 188 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 67¢ to $1.08 higher through the front six contracts.

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Keep in mind, the phased reopening was scheduled to begin yesterday with the port at Douglas, AZ.

“Cattle moving through this port will go through a robust double-inspection. Before entering the port, cattle will be inspected for any wounds or other health conditions, explains Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. “If any wounds are detected, the entire lot of cattle will be rejected by veterinary authorities. Cattle will also receive an anti-parasitic medication and then be quarantined for three days before moving through the port. Once on the other side, cattle will receive another round of veterinary inspection. Opening the Douglas port is the first phase of USDA’s plan and they will continue assessing biosecurity at every step of the process.”

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides some numbers perspective, in his weekly marketing comments, explaining 224,834 Mexican cattle crossed the border from early February to May 11, when the border was last open to Mexican cattle imports. He points out the current list of ports scheduled to reopen accounted for roughly 71% total imports in 2023. 

Given the remaining weeks of the year and the likelihood that ports will not jump to historic capacity immediately, Peel says total possible imports for the year are likely to be significantly reduced for the year.

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Exports of U.S. beef and pork trended lower in May, due primarily to steep declines in shipments to China, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 97,266 mt in May, down 12% and the lowest in nearly five years. Export value was $798.7 million, down 11.5% and the lowest in 18 months. But exports to leading market South Korea were outstanding, posting the largest monthly volume in more than two years and the highest value in nearly three years. May beef exports also trended higher year-over-year to Central and South America, the Dominican Republic, the United Arab Emirates and Africa.

May beef exports to China plunged to just under 1,400 mt, down 91% from a year ago. Export value fell 90% to less than $15 million.

“The situation with China obviously had a severe impact on May exports, underscoring the importance of diversification and further development of alternative markets,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The need for progress in the U.S.-China trade negotiations is extremely urgent because tariffs could soar again on Aug. 12. This deadline is already impacting exporters’ decisions about whether to continue producing for the Chinese market. On the bright side, amid all this uncertainty, demand for U.S. red meat remains robust in many key regions.”

January-May beef exports were down 5% from last year’s pace at 508,293 mt, while value declined 3% to $4.15 billion.

May pork exports totaled 224,162 metric tons (mt), down 11% from a year ago, while value fell 10% to $646.5 million.

Cattle closed mainly higher Thursday, supported by another day of bullish outside markets.

Live cattle futures closed an average of 90¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 52¢ higher, except for an average of 6¢ lower in the back two contracts. From last Thursday to the previous Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.06 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ higher, except for 27¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were mainly steady in the Texas Panhandle at $224/cwt., mostly $1 lower in Kansas at $224, steady in Nebraska at $230-$232 and unevenly steady in the western Corn Belt at $230-$233. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at $368. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $368-$370.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.11 lower Thursday afternoon at $389.75. Select was $1.87 lower at $378.44.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Corn futures closed mainly 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices powered forward Thursday, fueled by a more bullish reading of the nation’s employment situation.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was more than the trade expected. The unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 8¢ to $36.30 in June. Average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7% over the past 12 months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 344 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 51 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 207 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 22¢ to 45¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Keeping the historically high prices in mind, wholesale beef prices appear to be running out of seasonal steam, with Choice boxed beef cutout value $6.74 lower from Thursday of last week to the previous Friday at $389.75/cwt. Select was $4.49 lower during the same period at $378.44.

With Labor Day — the remaining key grilling holiday left this summer — Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee says further price support may prove tough top muster.

“With the thought that boxed beef prices will decline further, the question is how much will they decline and how long will it last,” Griffith says, in his weekly market comments. “The simple answer is for the market to expect softness starting now and not ending until late fall.”

Cattle futures bounced back Wednesday and recovered about half of the previous session’s losses which were tied to the kneejerk reaction to USDA’s announced plans to begin reopening the Mexican border to cattle imports as soon as next week.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.58 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.50 higher, except for $2.05 lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in the north through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at mostly $230/cwt. and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $230. Dressed delivered prices last week were mostly $368 in Nebraska and $368-$370 in the western Corn Belt.

Elsewhere, trade was inactive on light demand. FOB live prices last week were $223-$225/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $222-$225 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 74¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $394.86. Select was 25¢ higher at $380.31.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday with likely short covering and positioning ahead of the holiday weekend, also supported by positive trade news, given the U.S. deal with Vietnam.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 10¢ to 12¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ to 12¢ higher. Soybean futures were 17¢ to 25¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, with optimism spurred by the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal overshadowing a more bearish labor report than expected.

Private sector employment shed 33,000 jobs last month, according to the June ADP National Employment Report^®.

“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 190 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.13 to $2.05 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures closed sharply lower Tuesday in response to USDA’s announced plans to begin reopening the Mexican border to cattle imports as soon as next week.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.50 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.73 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $223-$225/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $222-$225 in Kansas, $230-$232 in Nebraska and $230-$233.50 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $368 in Nebraska and $368-$370 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 4¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $395.60. Select was $4.04 lower at $380.06.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ lower, pressured by crop progress and weather. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ higher on short covering. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday, with apparent rotation from tech stocks to begin the third quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 400 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 166 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 30¢ to 34¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Wholesale ground beef prices are on a tear, with the 90% lean trimmings price the last week of June record high at $401.45/cwt., according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Not only have 90% trimmings continued to increase in price, but 50% trimmings have also jumped sharply in recent weeks due to declining fed beef production,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. He points out the price of 50% lean trimming the last week of June was $236.03/cwt., the highest price ever, except for a two-week period during the pandemic in May 2020.

Peel explains mixing 90% and 50% trimmings in a 7:1 ratio produces an 85% lean ground beef product. Using the prices above results in a price of $380.77/cwt. for wholesale 85% lean ground beef, also an all-time record-high price, according to Peel.

“Ground beef prices will remain high for the foreseeable future as cull cow numbers will remain tight while the cattle industry transitions to herd rebuilding,” Peel says.

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.