WLI

Cattle futures continued to grind higher Wednesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 98¢ higher, from 47¢ to $1.95 higher toward the front of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.49 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in the Texas Panhandle to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $209-$210/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $213 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335-$345.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.32 lower Wednesday afternoon at $339.90/cwt. Select was $3.24 lower at $318.83.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday with the main pressure likely tied to trepidation concerning the U.S. tariffs announced after the session closed.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday after another volatile session as investors awaited specifics about the new U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Odds and after-hours stock futures suggest markets will view tariff specifics as negative.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 235 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 37 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 151 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 66¢ to 99¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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As feeder cattle prices have risen dramatically over the past four years, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out the price relationship between lighter and heavier weights has shifted significantly.

Using Oklahoma prices for Medium and Large No. 1 steers, Peel says the price increased 94.6% for calves weighing 475 lbs. from 2022 to 2025. The price for steers weighing 775 lbs. increased 85.2% during the same period.

Delving deeper, Peel says March 2023 feeder prices were 75.3% of the calf price level. By 2025, the feeder price was 71.3% of calf prices. He explains

the price relationships between calves and feeder cattle determine the value of adding additional weight to calves as stockers, while the change in relative prices across weight groups reflects market signals about resource use.

“Current market conditions clearly favor calf production over stocker production. That is to say, grass has more value marketed as weaned calves compared to stocker-based gain,” Peel says in his weekly market comments.

Between enhanced calf production incentives and relatively cheap feedlot cost of gain, Peel notes stocker producers are squeezed with economics generally favoring lighter beginning weights and faster turnover rates.

Cattle futures were higher Tuesday on the first day of the new quarter, supported by strengthening wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.73 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in the North to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $209-$210/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $213 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335-$345.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.96 higher Tuesday afternoon at $342.22/cwt. Select was $2.06 higher at $322.07.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday as traders resumed buying after month-end and quarter-end position squaring and with USDA’s Planting Intensions and Grain Stocks reports in the books, perhaps also reflecting some new weather premium.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 18¢ to 20¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday, after another extremely volatile session, as traders weighed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs Wednesday and their impact on both inflation and economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 150 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 3¢ to 26¢ lower across the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment declined in March, driven by concerns about agricultural trade and farm policy, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Month to month, the overall index declined 12 points to a reading of 140. The Index of Future Expectations dropped 15 points to 144 and the Current Conditions Index slid 5 points to 132.

Producer optimism about U.S. export growth sagged to a record low in March with 30% of producers anticipating a decline in exports, nearly matching the 33% who expect exports to rise. For perspective, producers reported they were optimistic about export growth in 2019 and 2020, the first two years that surveys posed the question. Optimism declined in 2021 and continues to erode.

Likewise, producers’ agricultural policy focus is shifting.

Before the November 2024 election, farmers reported a higher focus on interest rate policy than trade policy. Since the election, trade policy has become a fast-growing concern, with 43% of respondents, on average, now citing it as the most critical issue impacting their farms, up sharply from an average of just 21% prior to the election.

“While the overall sentiment shift in March reflects growing uncertainty, farmers remain cautiously optimistic about the future, particularly with farmland values holding steady and the outlook for strong returns in the livestock sector helping to offset weaker expectations among crop producers,” according to Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Cattle futures were mixed to lower Monday with likely month-end and quarter-end profit taking.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 58¢ lower to an average of 19¢ higher. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in the western Corn Belt to a standstill elsewhere through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $209-$210/cwt. and unevenly steady in the North at mostly $213. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $10 higher at $335-$345.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was 62¢ lower at $212.14. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $3.17 higher at $338.32.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.44 higher Monday afternoon at $335.26/cwt. Select was $1.33 higher at $320.01.

Grain and Soybean were mixed Monday with the reaction to USDA’s Planting Intensions and Grain Stocks reports (see below), suggesting the market had factored in similar numbers.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 4¢ higher, supported by tighter stocks. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 10¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, after a day of whipsaw volatility, recovering sharp early-session losses tied to unease about the implementation of reciprocal tariffs Wednesday and their impact on both inflation and economic growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 417 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 23 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.64 to $2.09 higher, supported by U.S. threats of increasing tariffs on Russian oil imports and on other countries that import Russian oil.

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Depending on who was betting, USDA’s much-anticipated Prospective Plantings report projected corn acres on the top side of expectations ahead of Monday’s release and all wheat toward the bottom of expectations.

Prospective acres planted to corn were projected at 95.3 million acres, which would be 4.7 million acres more (+5.2%) than last year.

All acres planted to wheat were forecast at 45.4 million acres, which would be 729,000 fewer acres than a year earlier (-1.6%). If realized, this would be the second lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Prospective soybean acres were in the middle of the range of expectations at 83.5 million acres. That would be 3.6 million fewer acres (-4.1%) than a year earlier.

The report pegs all acres planted to principal crops at 309.9 million acres, which would be 1.3 million acres less (-0.4%) than last year.

Projected all hay acres harvested in 2025 of 48.5 million acres would be 897,000 fewer acres (-1.8%).

NASS also released its quarterly Grain Stocks report Monday.

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 8.15 billion bushels, down 2% percent from a year earlier. Of the total stocks, 4.50 billion bushels were stored on farms, which was 11% less year over year. Off-farm stocks of 3.65 billion bushels were 12% more than a year earlier.

Soybeans stored in all positions totaled 1.91 billion bushels, up 4% year over year. Soybean stocks stored on farms were estimated at 877 million bushels, down 6%. Off-farm stocks of 1.03 billion bushels were 13% less.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.24 billion bushels, up 14% from a year ago. On-farm stocks were estimated at 307 million bushels, up 13% year over year. Off-farm stocks of 930 million bushels were 14% more.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking but were higher week to week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ lower, from 12¢ lower at the back to $1.00 lower toward the front. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ lower. 

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.15 higher (40¢ to $2.07 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.23 higher during the same period.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $10 higher at $335-$345/cwt., in a light test. There were a few FOB live trades at $213, but too few to trend; prices in the region the previous week were $212-$215.

Trade was light on moderate demand in Kansas and the western Corn Belt. There were a few live FOB trades in Kansas at $209, but too few to trend. Prices the previous week were $210 in Kansas and $212-$215 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $335.

In the Texas Panhandle, trade was mostly inactive on light demand. FOB live prices the previous week were $210.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.90 lower Friday afternoon at $332.82/cwt. Select was 76¢ lower at $318.68. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.91 higher and Select was $9.04 higher with a substantial increase in cattle slaughter.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 49,000 head more than the previous week and 27,000 head more than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 7.3 million head was 423,000 head fewer (-5.5%) than the same period a year ago. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 6.4 billion pounds was 1.1 million pounds less (-1.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday, as traders positioned head of Monday’s USDA Planting Intensions and Grain Stocks reports.

Corn futures were mostly 1¢ lower, except for nearby. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 8¢ higher through May ’26.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday, beneath the weight of tariff concerns, declining consumer confidence and sticky inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 715 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 112 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 481 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 56¢ to 73¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) recently reinstated the July Cattle report, which was suspended last year due to budget constraints. NASS also reinstated County Estimates for Crops and Livestock.

“The return of the July Cattle Report and County Estimates is a big win for cattle producers who utilize these reports to efficiently run their operations and make important marketing decisions,” says Tanner Beymer, executive director of government affairs for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. “These reports are not costly to produce and the amount they are used by the U.S. agriculture sector make them extremely cost-effective.”

Resumption of the July Cattle report is especially timely as the industry gauges when herd expansion begins and how fast.

David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University notes the 17.8% decrease in February feedlot placements.

“It was the smallest placements for any month since June 2016 and the smallest for a February since 2015,” Anderson explains in a recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The exceptionally large placements in 2024 meant that this year’s decline was going to look big. The number of cattle going through the CME feeder cattle index during the month was down 39% compared to last year. Combined with fewer cattle from Mexico impacting Southern feedlots and the placements were lower. But placements were small enough to begin some thinking about whether this might be the beginning of placements indicated herd rebuilding given that they were the fewest since the last herd rebuilding in 2015. It’s probably too early to tell. The data on the number of heifers on feed in the next report might give us some better evidence.”

Cattle futures rose Thursday, supported by recent wholesale beef price strength and perhaps speculation that cattle feeders can push cash fed cattle prices higher again this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.96 higher across a broad range of 60¢ higher at the back to $3.12 higher toward the front.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.63 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $210 in the Southern Plains and $212-$215 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.58 lower Thursday afternoon at $335.72/cwt. Select was $2.91 higher at $319.44.

Grain and Soybean were mixed Thursday. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. However, Soybean futures were 13¢ to 14¢ higher, likely supported by expectations of significantly lower planting intentions in Monday’s much-anticipated USDA report.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Thursday, pressured by new U.S. tariffs on auto imports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 155 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 94 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 17¢ to 21¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Higher fed cattle prices and lower value of gain improved forecast net returns in the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns. Keep in mind the projections represent a cash basis without price risk management.

Projected net returns for fed steers are $229.19 per head in March with a feedlot cost of gain of $106.09/cwt. For April through August, returns range between $168.16 and $238.41 with feedlot cost of gain ranging between $102.33 and $105.99.

For fed heifers, projected net returns in March are $203.03 per head with a feedlot cost of gain of $114.62/cwt. For April through August, returns range between $138.71 and $230.77 with feedlot cost of gain ranging between $110.85 and $113.21.