WLI

Cattle futures continued lower Tuesday with month-end and quarter-end positioning.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ lower, except for 80¢ higher in spot Jun and 2¢ higher at the back. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.29 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $260 in the western Corn Belt and $258-$260 in Nebraska. Dressed delivered prices were $408.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.72 higher Tuesday afternoon at $393.16/cwt. Select was $2.50 lower at $371.68.

Despite some mixed signals, Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday with support from USDA’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports (see below).

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were mostly 4¢ to 8¢ higher with lower stocks than expected. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, with follow-through optimism tied to the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, as well as a rebound in chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 136 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 393 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 26¢ to 60¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports raised some eyebrows Tuesday.

Corn planted area for all purposes was estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from last year but even with March estimates. This represents the fourth highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944. Corn stocks in all positions on June 1 totaled 5.29 billion bushels, up 14% year over year but less than anticipated ahead of the report.

Of the total stocks, 2.96 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 16% from a year earlier.

Soybean planted area for 2026 was estimated at 85.4 million acres, up 5% from last year and 700,000 acres more than March estimates. Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1 totaled 1.06 billion bushels, up 5% year over year. On-farm stocks totaled 367 million bushels, down 11% from a year earlier.

All wheat planted area for 2026 was estimated at 42.7 million acres, down 6% from 2025 and 1.1 million acres less than March estimates. The 2026 winter wheat planted area of 31.5 million acres was 5% less than last year and down 3% from the previous estimate. Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1 totaled 920 million bushels, up 8% from a year ago. On-farm stocks were estimated at 177 million bushels, down 4% from last year.

All harvested hay area of 49.8 million acres was 230,000 acres more (0.5%) than the previous year.

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Cattle futures closed lower again Monday with likely continued profit taking and positioning ahead of month-end and quarter-end.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.49 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.16 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258/cwt. in the Southern Plains, which was steady to $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle and $2 lower in Kansas. FOB live prices were steady in the western Corn Belt at mostly $260 and steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $258-$260. Dressed delivered prices were $408, which was steady in Nebraska and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was 29¢ lower at $259.34/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 75¢ higher at $407.75.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Monday with follow-through pressure from positive weather, month- and quarter-end, as well as positioning ahead of Tuesday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 12¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were 16¢ to 19¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, supported of new optimism regarding the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 306 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 86 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 522 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.01 to $1.32 higher through the front six contracts.

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Although feedlot inventories in June were 2.1% less year over year, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out it reflects marketings decreasing more than placements.

“In the past 12 months, feedlot placements have decreased 6.1% while feedlot marketings have decreased 7.8%, Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Decreased feedlot flows (placements and marketings) follow from ever tighter feeder cattle supplies. The 2025 calf crop was the eighth consecutive smaller calf crop and was the smallest in 84 years. The resulting slowdown in feedlot production, while maintaining feedlot inventories, is accomplished by an increase in average feedlot days on feed and heavier final weights for fed cattle. The Kansas Focus on Feedlots data shows average of 188 days on feed for the last year, with recent months up to 198 days.  Final fed steer weights in Kansas feedlots have increased 105 pounds in the past 18 months, currently averaging 1,523 pounds.”

Reduced feedlot flow leads to less fed cattle slaughter. Through the first half of this year, Peel explains fed cattle (steer and heifer) slaughter was 8.7% less year over year.

“Decreased fed cattle slaughter is partially offset by increased carcass weights,” Peel says. “Steer carcass weights are currently 968 pounds. Steer carcass weights have averaged 35 pounds heavier thus far in 2026. Heifer carcass weights are currently 884 pounds and are averaging 26.6 pounds more than one year ago.” He adds cow slaughter is 5.3% less so far this year, leading to an 8.1% decline in total cattle slaughter.

Total beef production is down 5.5% year over year through the first half of 2026, according to Peel with average fed beef production the lowest since 2017 and non-fed beef production the lowest since 2006. 

“Average monthly commercial beef production is at the lowest level since late 2016,” Peel says. “Total beef production is projected to be down 4.5-5.0% in 2026, compared to last year, and is expected to decrease again in 2027 to the lowest beef production since 2015.”

Listen to more of Peel’s insights here.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained largely undeveloped through Friday afternoon. The only established trade for the week, based on USDA reports, was mostly steady FOB live prices in the western Corn Belt at $260/cwt. Late-day private reports suggested unevenly steady prices across a broader area.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $258-$260/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $260 in Nebraska. Dressed delivered prices the previous week were mostly $408 in Nebraska and $405 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.29 lower Friday afternoon at $391.03/cwt. Select was $3.16 lower at $371.58.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 537,000 head was 11,000 head more than the previous week but 24,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 13.3 million head was 1.3 million head fewer (-8.7%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 11.9 billion pounds was 766.4 million pounds less (-6.0%).

“Year-to-date through mid-June, weekly steer dressed weights have ranged from a low of 973 pounds to a high of 989 pounds with an average of 982 pounds. On average, this is an increase of about 34 pounds (+4%) compared to the same period last year,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center, in the June 19 Livestock Monitor.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking, positioning ahead of the weekend, lower wholesale beef prices and wonderment about where cash fed cattle prices would eventually land for the week.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.10 lower, except for 5¢ higher in spot Jun. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.79 lower.

Keeping in mind futures markets were closed the previous Friday, week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.66 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.42 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Friday with likely positioning ahead of next week’s acreage and grain stocks reports, looming month end and quarter end.

Corn futures were mostly unchanged to 2¢ lower through Sep ’27 and then mostly fractionally higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly 9¢ to 11¢ lower with continued harvest pressure.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, as investors continued to turn away from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 44 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 3 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 60 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed an average of $2.33 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s latest monthly Cold Storage report continues in line with snug cattle supplies and reduced beef production. Total pounds of beef in freezers May 31 were down slightly from the previous month and down 1% year over year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were also down slightly from the previous month and down 1% from last year. However, frozen pork supplies were up slightly from the previous month and up slightly from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were 4% more than the previous month and 2% more than a year earlier.

Cattle futures crawled higher Thursday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in near Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 66¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258-$260/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $260 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $408 in Nebraska and $405 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.62 lower Thursday afternoon at $396.32/cwt. Select was $3.40 lower at $374.74.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday with likely technical buying and added weather premium.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 19¢ to 22¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday. Pressure included tech stocks and inflation.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for May increased 0.4% and was 4.1% higher year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Excluding food and energy, the PCE increased 0.3% in May and was 3.4% higher than a year earlier.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 71 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 118 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.06 to $1.18 higher through the front six contracts.

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Rural economic prospects improved in June, according to the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI), which climbed 6.9 points month to month to 52.6, the highest level since July 2023. The RMI is based on a survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. It ranges between 0 and 100 with 50 representing growth neutral.

“More than half, or 52.6%, of bankers reported that small business growth in their service area was stable, while 42.1% indicated modest declines. The remaining 5.3% reported modest growth for small business in their area,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The farm and ranchland index increased for the second consecutive month, rising to 55.3 in June from 50.1 in May.

“Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have restrained farmland values,” according to Goss.

Although still weak, the June farm equipment sales index also increased, rising to 28.9 in June from 18.2 in May. However, the index was below growth neutral for the 34th consecutive month.

“The 2026 conflict in Iran and tariffs on imported steel/aluminum has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins via increasing input costs,” Goss explains.

Overall, rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June economic confidence index moved to 42.1 from 34.8 in May.

When asked to name the top federal action needed to drive farm and ranch income higher, 41.9% named lowering global tariffs; approximately 26.3% said passage of a 5-year farm bill.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.09 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.18 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258-$260/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $260 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $408 in Nebraska and $405 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.37 lower Wednesday afternoon at $398.94/cwt. Select was $2.92 lower at $378.14.

Grain and Soybean futures were mostly lower on Wednesday. Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with continued pressure from the selloff in chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 182 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 110 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.38 to $3.39 lower through the front six contracts.