WLI

Cattle futures retrenched and gained Friday, boosted by the week’s higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices. Heading into the new week, there could be support from Friday’s late-day news that China appears to have opened the door to renewed beef imports from the U.S. (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.64 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.69 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.00 higher (25¢ higher to $5 higher in spot June), except for an average of 21¢ lower in the back two contracts.

During the same period, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.14 lower ($2.77 lower near the front to $7 lower at the back), except for $1.30 higher in spot May.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt to inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were $4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $260/cwt., $5-$9 higher in Kansas at $265 and mainly $5 higher in the North at mostly $265. Dressed delivered prices were $13 higher in Nebraska at $415 and mostly $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $410.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 higher Friday afternoon at $389.25/cwt. Select was 25¢ higher at $389.25. Week to week on Friday, Choice was 86¢ higher and Select was $4.24 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 535,000 head was 8,000 head more than the previous week but 31,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 10.2 million head was 1 million head fewer (-9.3%) than the same time a year ago. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 9.2 billion pounds was 657 million pounds less (-6.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures stepped lower Friday with follow-through selling prompted by the lack of new trade commitments from China.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 19¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 15¢ lower through May ‘27. Corn futures closed mostly 7¢ to 11¢ lower; they were an average of 13’6¢ lower through the front six contracts, week to week on Friday.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by likely week-end profit taking in tech stocks, as well as the lack of hoped-for developments from recent U.S. China trade talks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 537 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 92 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 410 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.37 to $4.25 higher through the front six contracts.

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China paved the way to potentially resuming imports of U.S.

Though more details are forthcoming, China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) granted a five-year registration extension to 425 overdue U.S. beef establishments in China’s Food Import Food Establishment (CIFER) system, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) on Friday. Additionally, 77 new U.S. beef establishment registrations were added to the CIFER system with an effective date of May 15, 2026, and registrations are valid for five years. There are 38 beef establishments which remain suspended. Of the suspended facilities, 25 were also expired and are now renewed, but remain ineligible for export.

“Renewal of U.S. beef establishment registrations is a critical step forward for U.S. beef exports to China,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. We await more details and a further readout from USTR’s engagements with China and note with appreciation Ambassador Greer’s optimism for U.S. agricultural trade with China.

Cattle futures lost momentum on Thursday, despite higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ lower, except for an average of $1.96 higher in the back two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.30 lower, except for an average of 35¢ higher in three contracts toward either end of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to light on moderate demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the latest established trade, compared to last week, FOB live prices are $4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $260/cwt. Elsewhere, FOB live prices are mostly $265/cwt., which is $5-$9 higher in Kansas, $5 higher in Nebraska, and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices are $13 higher in Nebraska at $415 and $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $410.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.23 lower Thursday afternoon at $387.45/cwt. Select was 42¢ higher at $389.00.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday, likely tied with disappointment in the lack of commodity news from the U.S.-China trade talks.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 19¢ to 20¢ lower. Corn futures were mostly 10¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were 23¢ to 35¢ lower through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, led by tech stocks and supported by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks.  with primary support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 370 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 57 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 232 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 5¢ to 82¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Between 2000 and 2025, the number of federally inspected beef packing plants (fed cattle and cow) with an annual capacity of 1 million head or more (largest plants) declined from 16 to 11, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. During the same period, the number of plants with an annual capacity of up to 100,000 head (smallest plants) increased from 683 to 888.

Total cattle slaughter last year of 29.252 million head was 6.4% less year over year and 13.1% less the recent cyclical peak in 2022, according to Peel. The largest plants harvested 47.3% of the total cattle, compared to 7.1% for the smallest.

“The general structure of the beef packing industry has been in place for nearly 35 years,” Peel says. “Beef packing in the U.S. consolidated rapidly in the 1980s and early 1990s. By 1993, the industry achieved a high level of concentration that has remained mostly constant since.”

Even so, Peel notes the largest plants account for a declining percentage of fed cattle slaughter since 2019, with the current percentage the smallest since 1994. He explains fed cattle slaughter was a record-high in 2000 at 29.6 million head. Last year it was 19.5% less at 23.8 million head.

“On average, fed slaughter is about 80% of total cattle slaughter,” Peel says, explaining the largest plants accounted for 58.1%  of fed slaughter last year. “Fed slaughter is currently 81.4% of total cattle slaughter, the highest percentage since 2007. Low cow slaughter since 2022 has increased the fed slaughter percentage.”

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.

Cattle futures gained traction from the recent headlines-driven decline, supported by steady to higher negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.61 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.45 higher, except for $1.17 lower in away May.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on moderate demand in Nebraska to limited on moderate demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $260/cwt., which is steady to $2 higher in Nebraska, $4 higher in the Texas Panhandle and steady to $4 higher in Kansas. Dressed delivered prices are $6-$8 higher in Nebraska at $408-$410. In the western Corn Belt last week, FOB live prices were mostly $260 and dressed delivered prices were $400-$405.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.05 lower Wednesday afternoon at $388.68/cwt. Select was $2.69 lower at $388.58.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower on profit taking. Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly unchanged to fractionally higher through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with primary support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 67 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 314 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 99¢ to $1.97 lower through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions held steady last week, according to USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending May 10. Nationwide, 31% was rated as Good (27%) or Excellent (4%), compared to 30% the previous week and 36% the previous year. On the other end of the scale, 41% was in Poor (22%) or Very Poor condition (19%), which was the same as the previous week but 5% more than the same time last year.

Challenging winter wheat conditions continue, as indicated by reduced estimated production in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Nationwide, 40% of the winter wheat crop was in Poor 24% or Very Poor (16%) condition, led by Very Poor in Nebraska (37%) and Texas (29%). Conversely, 28% was ranked in Good (23%) or Excellent (5%) condition, which was 26% less than the same time last year.

Corn planting progress continued to be positive with 57% in the ground, compared to 59% last year and 52% for the five-year average.

Likewise, 49% of the soybean crop was planted, which was 4% more than a year earlier and 13% more than average.

Cattle futures continued lower Tuesday on wonderment about expected reduced  tariffs on beef imports.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.45 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.94 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $256/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $255-$260 in Kansas and mostly $260 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $402 in Nebraska and $400-$405 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 49¢ lower Monday afternoon at $390.73/cwt. Select was 22¢ lower at $391.27.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday, buoyed by the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 45¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 13¢ higher through near Nov.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday. Pressure included a higher inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8% before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 3.8% in April, accounting for more than 40% of the monthly all items increase.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 185 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.21 to $4.19 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased projected five-area direct FOB live fed steer prices for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), based on recent data and tighter expected supplies. Compared to the previous month, prices were forecast $10 higher in the third and fourth quarters at $252/cwt. and $255, respectively. The projected annual average price increased by $8 to $249.66.

That was with beef production this year estimated 243 million pounds less  (-0.9%) than the previous month at 25.5 billion pounds. The total would be 456 million pounds less (-1.8%) than last year.

“Beef production was forecast lower, as expected herd rebuilding and increased heifer retention will limit the availability of fed cattle for slaughter,” ERS analysts say. “Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2027 is forecast above 2026 production levels as higher pork and poultry production more than offset lower beef production.”

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook was for reduced supply, total use and ending stocks with higher expected prices. The corn crop was projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6% from a year ago on declines to both area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be down 3.5 million. The yield projection of 183.0 bushels per acre was based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Larger beginning stocks partially offset the forecast reduction in production, resulting in total corn supplies declining 2% percent to 18.1 billion bushels. Stocks would represent 12.1% of use, down from 13% the prior year but above the average of the last five years.

The season-average farm price for corn was projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25¢ from the previous month.

Soybeans

The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. soybeans shows higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks from the prior marketing year. The soybean crop was projected at 4.435 billion bushels, up 173 million from last year’s crop, reflecting trend yield and higher harvested area. Along with higher beginning stocks, supplies were 188 million bushels more than the 2025/26 marketing year.

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 were projected at 310 million bushels, down 30 million from the revised 2025/26 forecast. The 2026/27 U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast at $11.40 per bushel, compared with $10.40 in 2025/26. The soybean meal price was forecast at $310 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price was forecast at 70¢ per pound, up 7¢.

Wheat

The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. wheat was for reduced supplies and exports, lower domestic use and smaller stocks compared with 2025/26. Wheat supplies were forecast down from last year with reduced production more than offsetting larger beginning stocks. All wheat production was projected at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from last year on reduced harvested area and yield. The all-wheat yield, projected at 47.5 bushels per acre, was 5.8 bushels lower than last year’s record yield. The first survey-based production forecast for 2026/27 winter wheat was down 25% from last year to 1,048 million bushels, primarily on sharply reduced Hard Red Winter production. Projected 2026/27 ending stocks were 18% less than last year at 762 million bushels.

The projected 2026/27 season-average farm price of $6.50 per bushel was $1.50 more than last year, based on a lower stocks-to-use ratio and a higher projected U.S. corn price.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.33 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.43 lower, except for $1.05 higher in spot May.

Week to week on Friday, Cattle futures gave back much of the previous week’s gains with Live Cattle an average of $4.04 lower and Feeder Cattle futures down an average of $8.11. Late-week pressure included chatter and algorithm fodder about the DOJ investigation into beef packers.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to light on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $256/cwt., $1-$5 higher in Kansas at $255-$260, $3-$8 higher in Nebraska at mostly $260 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $260. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2 higher in Nebraska at mainly $402 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $400-$403.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.45 higher Friday afternoon at $388.39/cwt. Select was 59¢ higher at $385.01.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 527,000 head was 7,000 head fewer than the previous week and 34,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 9.7 million head was 1 million head fewer (-9.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 8.7 billion pounds was 641.4 million pounds less (-6.9%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, buoyed by optimism about next week’s trade talks with China and perhaps some early positioning of next Tuesday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 17¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 17¢ higher. Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Week to week on Friday, Corn futures were an average of 7¢ lower through the front six contracts.       

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks and positive jobs data.

Total non-farm payroll employment grew by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls in April rose by 6¢ to $37.41. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 12 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 440 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 61¢ to $1.61 higher through the front six contracts. Those contracts were an average of $3.06 lower week to week on Friday.

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Wholesale beef values have yet to jump with the seasonal spark expected this time of year.

“There tends to be a push for steak cuts as Memorial Day weekend approaches, but the rib and loin primal values are not indicating restaurants, grocers or food service chasing product to stock the meat counter,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “This may mean nothing at all since beef prices remain elevated, but it could be a cause for concern as consumers are probably spending a higher percentage of their discretionary dollar on fuel instead of food. Cattle and beef markets are not immune to outside influences, and this may be what the market is experiencing.”

With that said, domestic consumer beef demand continues historically high. For instance, the Livestock Marketing Information (LMIC) retail all fresh beef demand index for the first quarter was up 10 points year over year at 147, the highest for the series going back to 2000.

“As the beef demand index reached a high for the series, the first-quarter all fresh retail beef prices were a record at $9.55 per pound, up $1.25 per pound (+15%) from the first quarter of 2025,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

For broader perspective, the first-quarter LMIC pork demand index was 1 point lower year over year at 93, the lowest level since 2017. The average first-quarter retail pork price was reported at $4.91 per pound, fractionally less than the prior year.

“Beef demand strengthened during the first quarter of 2026 while pork demand softened, but elevated fuel prices during the second quarter could threaten beef and pork demand over the summer grilling season,” LMIC analysts say.