WLI

Cattle futures were able to fade early pressure from President Trump’s announcement to waive tariffs for 90 days on imported beef products for ground beef (see below). 

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 78¢ higher, except for an average of 19¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.27 higher, except for 55¢ lower in spot Aug.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to limited on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on the last established trade for the week, FOB live prices were mostly $225-$226/cwt., which was $2-$3 lower in Nebraska and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered trades were $6-$12 lower in Nebraska at mostly $356 and mainly $7-$13 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $355. FOB live prices in Kansas the previous week were $228.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.24 lower Friday afternoon at $385.69/cwt. Select was $2.42 lower at $361.32. However, week to week on Friday, Choice was $10.39 higher and Select was $10.08 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 223,000 head was 6,000 head more than the previous week but 33,000 head less than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 17.4 million head was 1.5 million head fewer (-8%) than the same time a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 15.5 billion pounds was 900.5 million pounds less (-5.5%).

Corn and Soybean futures edged higher Friday, with follow-through support from the week’s Pro Farmer yield. estimates.

Corn futures closed 5¢ higher through Jly ’27 and then 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Kansas City HRW Wheat closed 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ’27 and then mostly 2¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, trying to recover from the week’s pressure driven by higher treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 517 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 113 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 17¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets could view the latest Cattle on Feed report as friendly with fewer placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.4 million head in July, which was 176,000 head fewer (-11%) than the previous year and 4.5% less than the average of analyst expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 37% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 45% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 18% weighing 900 lb. or more.

Marketings in July of 1.6 million head was 129,000 head fewer (-7.4%) year over year, which was in line with expectations ahead of the report.

Cattle on feed Aug. 1 of 11.1 million head was 195,000 head more (1.8%) than the previous year and 0.7% less than expectations.

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President Donald Trump announced a temporary 90-day waiver on out-of-quota tariffs for up to 300,000 metric tons of imported “product” for ground beef. The administration states the move aims to slash domestic consumer beef prices. According to his Truth social post, “We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices.”

The news pressured Cattle futures early in Friday’s session, as any hint of government intervention typically does. Cooler heads prevailed by the end the session, at least for the day.

“NCBA is disappointed by the President’s statement. While America’s cattle producers share the goal of keeping groceries affordable for consumers, flooding the market with government-subsidized, below-market beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd,” said Colin Woodall, chief executive officer of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), following Friday’s announcement. “Cattle markets have already turned sharply lower this morning, to the detriment of farmers and ranchers. This is a critical time of year for cattle producers, as we approach the season where they are making decisions regarding their herds. Cattle farmers and ranchers are responding to strong market signals and historically high demand, and we are already working to rebuild after years of ongoing drought, high input costs and other challenges that have reduced U.S. cattle numbers. Today’s announcement and other market interventions throw cold water on the prospect of herd expansion and sacrifices long-term stability for short term messaging.”

Cattle futures lost ground Wednesday with pressure including lower early negotiated cash fed cattle prices and surging corn prices.  

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.13 lower, except for 5¢ higher and unchanged at the back.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.64 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early dressed trades in Nebraska at $355-$360/cwt. Also, too few to trend, there were some early dressed trades in the western Corn Belt at $355-$356 and some FOB live trades at $225.

Last week, FOB live prices were $228 in Kansas, $225-$230 in Nebraska and $228-$230 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $362-$368.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.84 higher Wednesday afternoon at $394.99/cwt. Select was $2.12 lower at $364.17. This Choice-Select spread was the widest since December 2024.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday, supported by lower corn and yield estimated by private-firm crop tours.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 9¢ to 10¢ higher. Soybean futures were 16¢ to 20¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat were 15¢ to 16¢ higher. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, supported by lower treasury bond yields, thanks to the Treasury Department announcing it will at least double the size of its government debt purchases, beginning Sept. 9.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 119 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 41 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 63¢ lower to 48¢ higher.

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Tyson Food’s recent closure of beef packing and fabrication facilities underscores the sector’s ongoing challenges amid historically low cattle numbers.

“There is too much packing capacity in the cattle and beef sector for the number of animals that have been available in the past few years and will likely be available in the next few years. Beef packers have been routinely losing $200-$400 per head on every head slaughtered and fabricated since 2023 and likely earlier,” says Stephn Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University.

In the Aug. 17 issue of In the Cattle Markets, Koontz explains labor, supplies and energy for operations are a minor portion of a plant’s weekly total cost.

“Most of the cost is for the facility and inputs that cannot be much changed. Even labor is relatively inflexible. Contracts usually guarantee 36 hours per shift per week. If a shift operates, then it does so – and generates costs – through Thursday,” Koontz says. “Low-cost slaughter and fabrication plants have costs of about $300 per head when operating at five days per week capacity. High-cost plants are short of the $500 per head neighborhood. Running the plant at a reduced number of days per week – less than four – does not reduce the total costs. These costs are spread over fewer animals.”

Moreover, plants modestly smaller than the typical large commercial plant have total costs in the $600-$800 per head range, according to Koontz.

“These economies of size efficiencies are why we have the industry we have – the few very large plants – that is currently in overcapacity with respect to the number of animals,” Koontz says.

Cattle futures were mostly higher Tuesday supported by stronger early-week wholesale beef values and perhaps some lift on news that Cargill’s packing facility at Ft. Morgan, Colo., will resume operations.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 80¢ higher, except for 27¢ lower in the front contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early dressed trades in Nebraska at $359/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $228 in Kansas, $225-$230 in Nebraska and $228-$230 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $362-$368.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $11.58 higher Tuesday afternoon at $391.15/cwt. Select was $2.03 higher at $366.29.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed to lower Tuesday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.  Soybean futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat were 10¢ to 16¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Tuesday, pressured by higher crude oil prices and treasury yield rates fueled by inflation concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 116 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 355 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 33¢ to 44¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) slashed expected feeder steer prices for this year and next in the August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Compared to the previous month, based on recent price weakness, ERS reduced projected prices by $17/cwt. in the third and fourth quarters of this year to $363 and $365, respectively. The annual 2026 projected price average declined $8.50 to $367.26.

Prices are basis a Medium and Large #1 feeder steer weighing 750-800 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City.

Factoring in weaker price momentum, additional feeder calf imports, due to reopening the border with Mexico, and recognizing a smaller calf crop this year, ERS reduced forecast prices $8 in the first quarter of next year to $370 and $10 in the second quarter to $375. The 2027 annual price was $8.25 lower at $373.75.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS cut projected five-area direct weighted average fed steer prices for the remainder of this year and the first half of next year in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Compared to the previous month, based on recent weaker than expected demand for fed cattle, forecast prices for this year declined $13 in the third quarter to $255/cwt. and $10 in the fourth quarter to $255 for an annual average of $251.10, which was $5.75 lower.

That was with this year’s beef production estimated to be 321 million pounds less (-0.1%) than last month at 24.97 billion pounds. The total would be 1 billion pounds less (-4%) than the previous year’s total. Beef production was lowered due to a slower rate of steer, heifer and cow slaughter through the end of the year.

For next year, fed steer prices declined $5 to $250 in the first quarter and $255 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $254.

Cattle futures tried to firm Monday after last week’s bearish news but were mostly slightly lower.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 13¢ lower, except for an average of 48¢ higher in two nearby contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were mixed from an average of 74¢ lower to an average of 34¢ higher. Cattle futures were mixed through mid-morning today.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in the North through Monday afternoon.

Last week, FOB live prices were $7 lower in Kansas at $228/cwt., $5-$10 lower in Nebraska at $225-$230 and $5-$7 lower in the western Corn belt at $228-$230. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$8 lower at $362-$368.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $6.69 lower at $228.52. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $6.03 lower at $365.08.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.27 higher Monday afternoon at $379.57/cwt. Select was $13.02 higher at $364.26.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Monday with follow-through support.

Through Jly ’27, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher, Soybean futures were 18¢ to 23¢ higher and Kansas City HRW Wheat were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday with higher oil prices and increasing pessimism about finding a solution to the U.S.-Iran war.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 272 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 40 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 84 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.10 to $2.34 higher through the front six contracts.

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One market bright spot Monday came with news that Union workers at the Cargill plant in Ft. Morgan, Colo., voted overwhelmingly to ratify a work agreement with the company, according to various reports. Those same reports suggest production could resume at the facility in September for the first time since April.

Cattle futures continued lower Friday but closed off session lows. Pressure included lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices for the week and response to Tyson’s Thursday announcement that the company was ending operation of its beef packing facility in Joslin, Ill., its case ready facility in Eagle Mountain, Utah and seeking a buyer for its packing facility in Pasco, Wash.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.24 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.11 lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.96 lower, and Feeder Cattle futures were down an average of $8.61.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon. FOB live prices for the week were $7 lower in Nebraska at mostly $228/cwt. and $5-$7 lower in the western Corn belt at $228-$230. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$8 lower in Nebraska at $362-$365 and $2-$8 lower in the western Corn Belt at $362-$368.

Trade was limited on light demand in Kansas with no established trade for the week. FOB live prices there the previous week were $235.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 60¢ lower Friday afternoon at $375.30/cwt. Select was $2.00 higher at $351.24. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $10.94 higher and Select was $1.13 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 517,000 head was 8,000 head more than the previous week but 27,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 16.9 million head was 1.5 million head fewer (-8%) than the same time a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15.1 billion pounds was 874.7 million pounds less (-5.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures roared back Friday, led by wheat.

Kansas City HRW Wheat closed 22¢ to 33¢ higher through Sep ’27 and then 15¢ to 19¢ higher with added risk premium for export disruptions in the Black Sea. 

Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 11¢ higher through Aug ’27. 

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ higher through Jly ’27 and then mostly 5¢ to 6¢ higher, supported by tighter ending stocks. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 18’4¢ higher through the front six contracts, supported by the recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 107 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 73 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 67¢ to $1.15 higher through the front six contracts.

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Last week’s monthly Consumer Price Index for July — up 3.4% over the last 12 months — underscored the continued inflation pressure facing U.S. consumers.

“Grocery store food prices were up 3.0% with meat department prices up 5.4%,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) in the Aug. 14 Livestock Monitor. “Food purchased for away-from-home consumption was up 3.4%. Grocery store beef prices spearheaded July grocery store price trends. Overall beef prices were up 9.4% from July 2025. Fresh ground beef prices were up 9.0%, and steak prices were up 9.6%. Beef roasts, which are normally out of their peak demand season, had posted prices that were up 13.5% from the prior July.”

For comparison, LMIC analysts point out July fresh chicken prices in the grocery store were 2.5% less year over, while pork prices were basically the same.

“Prospects for grocery store meat prices could support a topping out of beef prices in the second half of the year,” LMIC analysts say. “At the wholesale level, lean beef trim prices have held steady instead of rising since the second half of the spring. Last year, prices for lean beef trim were moving significantly higher during these months. Fifty-percent lean beef trimmings prices have been decisively lower in the last three months, a sharp contrast to a year ago. Strip loin and round prices at the wholesale level have also been in a downtrend in recent months.”