WLI

Cattle futures were higher Monday, helped along by stronger outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.42 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.22 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $3 lower in the Southern Plains at mainly $257/cwt., $1-$8 lower in Nebraska at mostly $257 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $256-$258. Dressed delivered prices were $405, which was $3-$5 lower in Nebraska and $5 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.36 higher Monday afternoon at $392.83/cwt. Select was 9¢ lower at $383.09.

Grain and Soybean futures limped lower Monday.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks and despite higher Crude Oil prices tied to increased turmoil in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 46 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 19 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 114 points

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As folks ponder the shape and timing of beef cow herd expansion, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says the combination of heifer and cow slaughter is the key indicator.

“The female slaughter percentage peaked most recently in 2023 at 51.8% (the highest level since 1985) and has decreased to the current level of 48.8%,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “Female cattle slaughter is still above the average level. Most of the decrease observed thus far in the female slaughter percentage is due to decreased beef cow slaughter. Further decreases will depend on increased heifer retention (i.e. reduced heifer slaughter).”

More specifically, Peel says 47% female slaughter is commonly regarded as the threshold for herd expansion. He believes it could take another 6-10 months for female slaughter to decline to that level.

“The initial stages of this process mean that cattle slaughter and beef production will continue to decline and that the highest cattle prices of this cycle are still ahead,” Peel says.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday, pressured by lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices, seasonally reluctant wholesale beef values, another New World screwworm case in Mexico creeping closer to the U.S. border, as well as week-end and month-end positioning.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.17 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.82 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 67¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.63 lower during the same period, extending the previous week’s steep decline.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices lost ground on Friday, although the market had yet to be established in all regions through the afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Trade was light on moderate demand in Nebraska, where FOB live prices were $3-$10 lower at $255/cwt. and $3-$5 lower in the beef (delivered) at $405.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle and the western Corn Belt. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the Texas Panhandle at $256 and in the western Corn Belt at $255-$258 with dressed delivered prices at $405.

Trade was inactive on moderate demand in Kansas.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $260 in the Texas Panhandle, $259-$260 in Kansas and mostly $260 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were mostly $410.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 85¢ lower Friday afternoon at $391.47/cwt. Select was $2.40 lower at $383.18. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed was $1.20 higher, but Select was $1.82 lower.

Corn and Soybean futures closed lower Friday, as traders took back war premium and positioned for the end of the week and the end of the month.

Corn futures closed mostly 6¢ to 9¢ lower through Jly ‘27. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 12’1¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ lower through May ‘27.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 15¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks and supported by lower Crude Oil prices tied to what was deemed progress in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 363 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 55 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.30 to $1.54 lower through the front six contracts.

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During last week’s U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), members gained insights from a distinguished panel of livestock industry experts, including Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University; Nevil Speer of Turkey Track Consulting; and Don Close, senior animal protein analyst with Terrain.

The panel addressed factors impacting protein demand in both the international and domestic markets, noting the important role exports play in bolstering the profitability of livestock producers and incentivizing industry expansion. But expansion of the beef cattle herd has been elusive, due to factors such as volatile grazing conditions and hay availability, and persistently higher operating costs.

“You cannot stabilize the cow inventory by not killing cows,” Close explained. “If we’re not putting replacement heifers on top of that, we’re going to continue to decline. By not killing the cows and not replacing with females, the average age of our cow herd is getting substantially older. When we do finally start to expand, we’re going to have to retain enough females, not only to rebuild what we’ve lost, but we’re going to have to retain additional replacement females because of the accelerated attrition of the cows that are still out there.”

The tight cattle supply has fueled misperceptions about the impact of trade, with some media outlets suggesting that exports reduce availability for U.S. consumers. Peel illustrated the benefits of trade by drawing a comparison with households that periodically fill their home freezer with a full range of beef cuts.

“I always remind producers, because they almost all have freezer beef, what’s it like when you get down to the stuff that’s in the bottom of the freezer,” he said. “When you start talking to the other half of the household about how you need to get another beef in the freezer, you get reminded: ‘no, you’ve got to eat that stuff before we get another one.’ By exporting the cuts we don’t like to eat as much, trade allows us to clean out the bottom of the freezer, so that we can focus U.S. demand on the cuts we really want.”

Speer highlighted the benefits producers have realized from raising higher grading cattle that meet consumers’ demand for high-quality beef. He contrasted the current situation with the 1980s and 90s, when the beef industry was losing the battle for consumer dollars spent on protein.

“Now we’re in a whole new realm,” Speer said. “This is what’s bringing consumers back – the quality and the consistency. And this did not just happen, right? We’ve gotten better at genetics, we’ve gotten better at management, and we’re starting to listen to consumers, and it makes all the difference in the world.”

Cattle futures traded both sides Thursday but ended lower, with traders apparently awaiting this week’s negotiated cash fed direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.00 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.25 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $260/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $259-$260 in Kansas, $258-$265 in Nebraska and mostly $260 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $408-$410 in Nebraska and mostly $410 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.40 lower Thursday afternoon at $392.32/cwt. Select was $3.71 lower at $385.58.

Corn and Soybean futures followed Crude Oil prices higher on Thursday.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 14¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Thursday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 24 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 242 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 9¢ to $1.24 higher through the front six contracts.

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Rural economic conditions declined last month, according to Creighton University’s Rural Main Street Index (RMI). It declined 2.2 points from April to 45.7 in May, dropping below growth neutral for the fourth straight month. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Approximately, 47.8% of bankers reported that the financial position of farmers in their area had deteriorated in 2026 from 2025.”

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The May economic confidence index slumped to 34.8 from 39.1 in April.“The war in Iran has added volatility to an already-pressured agricultural sector, with rising input costs squeezing farmer operating margins, dampening equipment sales and reshaping planting decisions heading into the season,” Goss says.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, buoyed by stronger wholesale beef values and outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.61 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.42 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $260/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $259-$260 in Kansas, $258-$265 in Nebraska and mostly $260 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $408-$410 in Nebraska and mostly $410 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.82 higher Wednesday afternoon at $394.72/cwt. Select was $1.01 lower at $389.29.

Grain futures closed lower Wednesday, as Crude Oil prices continued to retreat.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices crept higher Wednesday with growing optimism for peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 182 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 18 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.57 to $4.41 lower through the front six contracts.

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Although cash fed cattle prices weakened a touch last week, Bernt Nelson, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation notes the strong fundamentals underpinning historically high cash cattle prices.

Specifically, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center, Nelson Points to:

• Cattle supplies are at a 75-year low
• Consumer demand is strong
• Herd rebuilding takes two years from the time a heifer calf is born, until it can have a calf of its own and create meaningful herd expansion.
• Approximately 70% of the total U.S. cattle inventory is under drought conditions

Further Nelson notes there was no suggestion of herd expansion in the recent Cattle on Feed report.

“Herd rebuilding decisions continue to be clouded by ongoing challenges, including persistent drought, elevated input costs and animal health risks such as New World screwworm,” Nelson says. “These factors are likely to keep production risks elevated even while beef demand remains strong, suggesting continued volatility in the cattle market in the months ahead.”

Cattle futures closed mixed to slightly higher Tuesday as traders appeared to shrug off Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, or pointing to the fact it was already adequately priced into the market.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 44¢ higher, except for an average of 46¢ lower in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ higher, except for an average of $1.72 lower in two back contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $260/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $259-$260, steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $258-$265 and mostly steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at most $260. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$5 lower in Nebraska at $408-$410 and mainly steady in the western Corn Belt at mostly $410.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.63 higher Tuesday afternoon at $392.90/cwt. Select was $5.30 higher at $390.30.

Corn and Soybean futures closed lower Tuesday, in sympathy with Crude Oil prices.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 11¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday with tech stocks leading the support. Pressure included ongoing uncertainty about progress in U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 118 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 45 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 312 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.84 to $3.02 lower through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions last week improved in some areas and worsened in others, according to USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending May 24. Nationwide, 29% was rated as Good (25%) or Excellent (4%), compared to 28% the previous week and 41% the previous year. On the other end of the scale, 44% was in Poor (22%) or Very Poor condition (22%), which was the same as the previous week but 11% more than the same time last year.

States with 40% or more pasture and range ranked as Poor or Very Poor included: Arizona (64%), Colorado (51%), Florida (49%), Georgia (39%), Kansas (40%); Montana (62%), Nebraska (79%), New Mexico (62%), North Carolina (53%), South Dakota (49%), Utah (59%), Virginia (68%), West Virginia (47%) and Wyoming (50%). Texas was on the line at 39%.

Winter wheat condition continued to lose ground with 26% ranked in Good (22%) or Excellent (4%) condition, which was 1% less than the previous week and 24% less than the same time last year. Conversely, 44% was in Poor (26%) or Very Poor (18%) condition, compared to 43% the previous week and 19% at the same time last year.

Corn planting progress continued to be positive with 86% in the ground, which was the same as last year and 3% more than the five-year average.

Similarly, 79% of the soybean crop was planted, which was 4% more than a year earlier and 11% more than average.