WLI

Cattle futures were unable to build on recent gains Friday, bogged down by more political rhetoric (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 92¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.68 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.88 lower, except for an average of 60¢ higher in the back two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.54 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. For the week, FOB live prices were $4-$7 lower in the North at $218-$222/cwt., with the highest prices paid late in the week. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $345, which was $10-$11 lower. There was no established trade in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.13 lower Friday afternoon at $376.23/cwt. Select was $1.89 higher at $361.08. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $9.46 lower and. Select was 24¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 542,000 head was 19,000 head more than the previous week. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 17.9 million head was 1.5 million head fewer (-7.9%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 16 billion pounds was 915.2 million pounds less (-5.4%).

Grain and Soybean closed expanded gains on Friday.

Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 26’2¢ higher through the front six contracts. That’s an average of about 49¢ higher in those same two contracts over the past two weeks.

Soybean futures were mostly 15¢ to 19¢ higher.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ to 24¢ higher through Dec ‘27 on continued war premium.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased lower Friday, pressured by inflation concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 138 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed narrowly mixed, from 13¢ lower to 3¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Another day, and another market-depressing idea from the U.S. president to address high beef prices.

President Trump signed a proclamation last Wednesday to waive of out-of-quota tariffs for 90 days on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported lean beef trimmings for ground beef to be sold at a discounted price.

On Friday, the President said via social post, in part, “I am authorizing legal documents to be drawn in order to allow farmers and ranchers to be given the right to process their own food…”

Farmers and ranchers already possess this right, of course. The right to process it and sell it without state and/or federal safety inspection is another matter.

Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, followed with her own social post, saying major announcements would be coming Monday, including waiving red tape in processing.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) issued this statement Friday morning:

“NCBA strongly supports increasing competition in the cattle markets and creating more opportunities for small and regional beef processors. We also support eliminating unnecessary regulations that make it harder for those businesses to compete. However, weakening federal meat inspection and food safety standards, as President Trump has suggested, is not the answer.

“For generations, cattle producers have invested in building consumer confidence in American beef and creating the gold standard of food safety systems. Putting that trust at risk in pursuit of a short-term political solution would be a serious mistake. Beef sold to American consumers should continue to meet rigorous, science-based food safety and inspection standards, regardless of the size of the processor.

“In just the past week, cattle producers have faced government intervention aimed at increasing foreign beef imports at prices below current levels. Now we are faced with another proposal aimed at changing how beef is processed. Constant government interference creates uncertainty for producers making long-term decisions about their businesses and the future of the cattle herd.

“If the Administration wants to help cattle producers, it should focus on reducing legitimate regulatory burdens, lowering fuel and fertilizer prices, protecting the U.S. cattle herd from foreign animal disease, and expanding opportunities for mid-size and regional cattle processors.

“America’s farmers and ranchers know how to produce safe, high-quality beef. American consumers trust the beef we produce. Washington needs to stop trying to manage the cattle business and let the market work.”

Cattle futures continued higher Thursday, boosting hopes that the bottom had been etched.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.79 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.42 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. So far this week, FOB live prices are $218-$22o/cwt., which is $7-$8 lower than last week. Dressed delivered prices are mostly $345, which is $10-$11 lower.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.77 lower Thursday afternoon at $381.36/cwt. Select was $3.49 lower at $359.19.

Grain and Soybean were mixed on Thursday.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower on likely profit taking and producer selling.

Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower with likely profit taking.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 9¢ to 11¢ higher on continued war premium.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 104 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 55 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 411 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 2¢ to $1.43 higher through the front six contracts.

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Considering the Administration’s recently announced plan to temporarily waive out-of-quota tariffs on imported “product” for ground beef, Roger McEowen says, “The fundamental choice facing policymakers is not between expensive beef and cheap beef. It is between a market that is allowed to produce more beef and a government policy that attempts to make beef cheaper by weakening the incentive to produce it.

“If the objective is genuinely to make beef more affordable for American consumers over the next five or ten years, prices should communicate scarcity, and producers should be free to respond to those signals. Government’s role should be primarily to remove barriers that prevent that response.”

That’s part of the conclusion to his Lowering Beef Prices Without Harming the Cattle Industry, shared by the Kansas State University (K-state) department of agricultural Economics. McEowen is the Kansas Farm Bureau Professor of Agricultural Law and Taxation at Washburn University School of Law and also teaches agricultural law at K-State.

“Temporary imports can provide a bridge while the cattle cycle works through its rebuilding phase, but the permanent solution is more cattle, more efficient production, more processing capacity and stronger competition throughout the supply chain,” McEowen says. “Tax policy can lower the after-tax cost of herd expansion and infrastructure investment; credit and risk-management programs can reduce catastrophic production risk; and antitrust and Packers and Stockyards enforcement can protect genuine competition without treating mere industry concentration as unlawful. In short, Washington should not try to manufacture a lower beef price. It should create the legal, tax and economic environment in which American ranchers have a reason to produce more beef. That is how consumers ultimately get lower prices without destroying the domestic cattle industry that supplies them.”

Cattle futures firmed and mostly gained Wednesday, supported by oversold conditions. 

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 46¢ higher, except for an average of 42¢ lower in two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.11 higher, except for an average of 94¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were mostly $22o/cwt., which was $2 higher than a day earlier, but $7-$8 lower than last week. Dressed delivered prices so far this week are mostly $345, which is $10-$11 lower.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.40 lower Wednesday afternoon at $385.13/cwt. Select was $6.30 lower at $362.68.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher on Wednesday.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 10¢ to 13¢ higher through Dec ’27 on yield concerns.

Soybean futures were 20¢ to 23¢ higher through Mar ’28, helped along by more Chinese purchases.

Kansas City HRW Wheat were 21¢ to 38¢ higher through Dec ’27 with more premium, added for the Ukraine-Russia war and its impact on exports through the Black Sea. 

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Wednesday with pressure from the latest inflation reading. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased 0.2% month to month in July and was 3.7% higher year over year; both were slightly more than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 113 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was down 21 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 22¢ to 59¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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As previously reported in Cattle Current, President Trump announced a plan last Friday to waive out-of-quota tariffs for 90 days on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported “product” for ground beef. According to the President’s Truth social post, “We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices.”

Yesterday, four of the nation’s leading livestock and agricultural organizations sent a letter to President Trump, urging him to reverse the plan, which they believe would weaken the long-term stability of the U.S. cattle industry.

The American Farm Bureau Federation, Livestock Marketing Association, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), and United States Cattlemen’s Association called on the Administration to work with industry stakeholders on solutions that keep food affordable while protecting producers, consumers, and strengthening the nation’s ability to produce its own food.

The letter reads in part:

“We share your goal of keeping groceries affordable for American families. However, flooding the market with discounted foreign beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd, strengthen food security, or lower grocery bills in a lasting way. This announcement has already driven cattle markets sharply lower and undermines producers at a critical time of year when they are marketing cattle and making herd-building decisions.

“Beef prices are in line with other consumer prices and reflect the inflated cost of raising cattle, grain, and forage. Ranchers and farmers are finally experiencing the strong beef demand needed to invest in their operations after years of drought, high input costs, processing plant disruptions, and other challenges that have reduced cattle numbers. This announcement will discourage investment in the U.S. cow herd and undo the progress producers have made.”

Cattle futures opened higher Monday, supported by the lower July feedlot placements in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report but then turned negative with pressure including last week’s lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices and negative psychology surrounding Monday’s re-opening of the port of entry in Douglas, Ariz., to feeder cattle imports from Mexico. 

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.04 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.05 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in the North through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were mostly $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at mainly $225-$226/cwt. and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $225. Dressed delivered trades were mostly $7-$12 lower in Nebraska at mainly $355-$356 and mainly $7-$13 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $355.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $3.51 lower at $225.01. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer prices was $9.54 lower at $355.54.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was unchanged Monday afternoon at $385.69/cwt. Select was $3.70 higher at $365.02.

Grain and Soybean closed mixed on Monday.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ higher, as traders tried to price lower expected yields.

Soybean futures were 8¢ to 14¢ lower, pressured by bean oil.

Kansas City HRW Wheat were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday, pressured by chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 140 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 200 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.19 to $2.04 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA re-opened the port of entry to Mexican Feeder cattle imports on Monday, amid plenty of wonderment about how many cattle are set to cross, what kind of cattle and how fast.

For historic perspective, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University explains Mexican cattle imports averaged 1.17 million head per year from 2004 to 2023, ranging from 702,600 head in 2008 to 1.47 million head in 2012. 

“Mexican cattle imports are highly correlated to drought conditions in Mexico, with severe drought causing unsustainable spikes in cattle imports which tend to average out,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “A five-year moving average of Mexican cattle imports only shows about 222,000 head variation across years.”

On average, Peel explains 36% of annual Mexican cattle imports cross from September through December. 

“If the border was fully open, the average of 1.17 million head annually implies that roughly 421,000 head could cross by the end of the year. Based on history, it might be possible for 90-100,000 head of cattle to cross at the Douglas port in the last four months of the year,” Peel says. “If we suppose that Santa Teresa and Columbus, New Mexico open one month later, an additional 125-175,000 head could be imported by the end of the year. It is unlikely that many, if any, spayed heifers will be imported initially, so the above estimates are likely too high.”

Moreover, Peel notes it will likely take several weeks for ports to return to full capacity. 

“For the remainder of 2026, up to 250,000 head total might be possible but 150,000 head is probably a more reasonable estimate of Mexican cattle imports by the end of the year,” Peel says.