WLI

Cattle futures were down hard on Monday, in reaction to USDA’s plans to open the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $6.26 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were mostly limit-down, an average of $10.38 lower across the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $7 lower in Kansas at $230-231/cwt. FOB live prices were mostly $230 in the North, which was mainly $10 lower in Nebraska and $10-$15 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365, which was mostly $15 lower in Nebraska and $5-$20 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $7.80 lower at $230.48/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $11.68 lower at $365.33.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.65 higher Monday afternoon at $362.89. Select was $1.55 lower at $345.16.

Grain and Soybean futures were down on sharply lower Crude Oil futures and a more favorable weather outlook.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 41¢ to 42¢ lower.  Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 14¢ to 17¢ lower.  Corn futures were 10¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with support including lower Crude Oil prices as tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, for the time being.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 262 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was down 43 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.48 to $7.31 lower through the front six contracts.

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Nationwide, pasture and range conditions held steady last week but were in significantly poorer shape year over year. Based on USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending July 26, 29% of the nation’s pasture and range was in Good (25%) or Excellent (4%) condition, which was the same as a week earlier but 16% less year over year. On the other side of the scale, 42% was in Poor (21%) or Very Poor (21%) condition, the same as the prior week but 16% more than the prior year.

States with 50% or more pasture and ranged classified as Poor or Very Poor included Arizona (74%), Colorado (77%), Nebraska (66%), New Mexico (57%), South Dakota (63%), West Virginia (52%) and Wyoming (69%).

Corn condition eroded last week with 63% in Good (50%) or Excellent (13%) condition, compared to 67% the previous week and 73% at the same time last year. Conversely, 12% was in Poor (9%) or Very Poor (3%) condition, which was 3% more than the previous week and 5% more than a year earlier.

Similarly, 63% of soybeans were in Good (52%) or Excellent (11%) condition, which was 3% less than the previous week and 7% less than the prior year. At the other end of the rankings, 9% were in Poor (7%) and Very Poor (2%) condition, compared to 8% a week earlier and 6% a year earlier.

Cattle futures extended gains Friday, clawing back some of the previous weeks’ steep losses with hopes the near bottom has been established. As this week begins, traders will be considering the monthly Cattle on Feed and semi-annul Cattle inventory reports published after markets closed on Friday, as well as the announced phased reopening of the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.97 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.12 higher, and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.70 higher, except for 62¢ lower in spot Aug.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was very limited on light to moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in the North, which was $10 lower in Nebraska and $10-$15 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365, which was mostly $15 lower in Nebraska and $5-$20 lower in the western Corn Belt. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Kansas at $230-$231; prices there the previous week were mostly $237-$238.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.63 lower Friday afternoon at $361.24. Select was $2.04 lower at $346.71. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $5.57 lower and Select was $8.58 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 528,000 head, which was 3,000 more than the previous week but 26,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 15.4 million head was 1.4 million head fewer (-8.3%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 13.7 billion pounds was 837.1 million pounds less (-5.8%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed on Friday.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 10¢ higher through Jly ’27 and then mostly unchanged to fractionally mixed, supported by China purchases.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 14¢ lower through Dec ’27 and then mostly 7¢ lower on rumors about a deal to open export shipments through the Black Sea.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower, pressured by Wheat. However, they were an average of 17’5¢ higher through the front six contracts, week to week on Friday.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday, pressured in part by chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 235 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 161 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 28¢ to $2.88 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA announced on Friday a coordinated, phased reopening of southern cattle ports to importation of Mexican feeder cattle. The ports have been closed because of New World screwworm (NWS). The reopening is contingent on Mexico’s adherence to the Joint Action Plan, according to USDA.

Beginning August 24, 2026, USDA will open the Douglas, Ariz. port of entry to cattle trade. The closest active NWS case to the port is approximately 325 miles away, detected on July 22, 2026. After evaluating the success of the initial reopening and potential impacts or risk assessment changes, APHIS will then consider reopening the Santa Teresa, N.M., and Columbus, N.M., ports to live cattle, bison, and horses.

“The closure of the Southern ports of entry for the last year has been a tough but necessary action to control the spread of NWS in Mexico and protect the American livestock industry,” says U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins. “Thanks to the work across the federal government, as well as state, local, and industry partners, it is now safe to reopen the Douglas, Ariz., port in 30 days to resume the hundreds year old movement of cattle.”

For domestic NWS perspective, USDA reported the first confirmed case June 3. As of Friday, 42 cases had been reported in Texas and New Mexico, according to USDA’s NWS Confirmed Detections Dashboard.

“Secretary Rollins and her team at USDA have been fighting the spread of New World screwworm with an aggressive five-point plan and comprehensive response playbook. Their work – along with the diligence of cattle producers in border states – bought the United States valuable time to improve our domestic readiness. The whole-of-government response has put us in a strong position to begin safely and gradually reopening our southern border to cattle shipments,” says Colin Woodall, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO. “This decision will help normalize business for cattle operations throughout the border states and Southern Plains. We appreciate the continued work of USDA to support American producers and the U.S. cattle industry.”

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Cyclical cattle liquidation may be at or near the end, based on USDA’s semi-annual Cattle report published Friday, though some will likely question the numbers. Bottom- line analysis suggests herd stabilization with potential expansion in the distance. The numbers also reinforce the notion that expansion will be a long, slow process when it does begin.

All cattle and calves in the United States of 94.2 million head was 200,000 head more (0.2%) year over year.

Beef cows of 28.5 million head were 200,000 head fewer (-0.7%).

Milk cows numbered 9.7 million head, which was 200,000 head more (2.1%) year over year.

Beef replacement heifers of 3.8 million head were 100,000 head more (2.7%). At the same time, the percentage of heifers on feed July 1 (see below) continues to suggest herd expansion has yet to begin.

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Cattle markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to supportive with fewer placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.4 million head in June, which was 42,000 head fewer (-2.9%) year over year. That was about 1% less than pre-report estimates.

In terms of placement weights, 39% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 43% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 18% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in June of 1.7 million head were 46,000 head fewer (-2.7%) than a year earlier, which was in line with expectations ahead of the report.

Cattle on feed July 1 of 11.4. million head were 246,000 head more (2.2%) year over year. That was about dead on with pre-report estimates.

Heifers and heifer calves represented 37% of the cattle on feed.

Cattle futures were sharply lower Wednesday with pressure from lower cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values as traders eyed the monthly Cattle on Feed and semi-annul Cattle reports due to be published on Friday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.47 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.68 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on moderate demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Early dressed sales in Nebraska were $15 lower at $365/cwt. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $230-$232; prices last week were mostly $240.

Early FOB live prices in the western Corn Belt were $5-$10 lower at $230. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades at $365; prices last week were $370-$385.

Trade was mostly inactive on light demand in Kansas where FOB live prices last week were mostly $237-$238.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.41 lower Wednesday afternoon at $363.50. Select was $3.66 lower at $350.57.

Grain and Soybean futures rallied Wednesday, supported by higher Crude Oil prices, war premium and a negative weather outlook.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 9¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 16¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 27¢ to 30¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured in part by higher oil prices tied to escalated attacks between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 6 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 146 points.

Cattle futures finally found some footing Monday after about two weeks of consecutive down days, helped along by firming wholesale beef values and oversold conditions.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.28 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were mainly $10-$11 lower in Kansas at mostly $237-$238/cwt., $8 lower in Nebraska at $240 and mostly $8-$13 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $235-$240. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $10-$13 lower in Nebraska at mostly $380 and $8-$23 lower in the western Corn Belt at $370-$385.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $9.73 lower at $238.28. The weekly weighted dressed delivered fed steer price was $14.48 lower at $377.01.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.29 higher Monday afternoon at $370.10. Select was 16¢ higher at $355.45.

Corn and Soybean futures were higher Monday, with war premium and the hotter outlook in some portions of the Corn Belt.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 18¢ to 22¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower with likely profit taking.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, pressured by higher oil prices tied to escalated attacks between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 307 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 12 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 7¢ lower to 68¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $235/cwt. Established trade for the week was $10-$11 lower at $237-$238.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $230-$235 and some dressed delivered trades at $365-$370. Established FOB live prices for the week were $8-$15 lower at $233-$240. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $393.

In Nebraska, trade was mostly inactive on light demand. Established FOB live trade for the week was mostly $8 lower at mainly $240 and dressed delivered prices were $10-$13 lower at mostly $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.57 lower Friday afternoon at $366.81. Select was 40¢ lower at $355.29. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed was $15.87 lower and Select was $13.94 lower.

Sharply lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices the last two weeks and eroding wholesale beef values continued to weigh on Cattle futures Friday.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.88 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.57 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $9.16 lower. That’s an average of $13.28 lower over the last two weeks. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $13.61 lower. That’s an average of $21.63 lower over the last two weeks.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, buoyed by war premium tied to the Black Sea trade disruptions stemming from the war between Russia and Ukraine, higher oil prices tied to the U.S.-Iran war and perhaps some added weather premium.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 9¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. They were an average of 7’2¢ higher through the front six contracts, week to week on Friday.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by tech and chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 406 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 76 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 361 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were an average of $2.80 higher through the front six contracts.

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Choice retail beef prices were 10¢ higher month to month in June at $10.45 per pound, according to the latest USDA data. Year over year, the Choice retail beef price was $1.18 higher (12.7%). Likewise, the all-fresh retail beef price was 12¢ higher month to month and $1.01 higher year over year (11.7%) at $9.64 per pound.

“June’s All-Fresh retail beef price was the third highest on record behind $10.00 per pound in April and $9.69 per pound in February of this year,” according to analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) in the July 17 Livestock Monitor. “USDA-ERS reported June’s retail beef steak price at $12.88 per pound, an increase of $1.39 per pound (+12%) from last year and the second highest price on record behind $13.02 per pound in April 2026. Roasts increased $1.23 per pound (+15%) to a record of $9.43 per pound in June, surpassing the prior record of $9.41 per pound in April 2026. For the last three months, retail ground beef prices exceeded the $7 per pound mark. June was a record at $7.14 per pound, up $0.80 per pound (+13%) from last year.”

By way of comparison, LMIC analysts explain

June’s retail pork price of $4.92 per pound was down fractionally year over year. The June broiler composite retail price was 2% less than a year earlier at $2.38 per pound, the lowest since February 2024.