WLI

Cattle futures gained traction Wednesday with recently stronger wholesale beef values and prospects of higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.51 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.92 higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $200/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on very light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200-$202 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $315-$317 in Nebraska and $315-$320 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 10¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $321.10/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $307.53

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were 7¢ to 8¢ lower, pressured by concerns about Canada imposing tariffs on U.S. ethanol imports if the trade war escalates.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with support including a more friendly inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5% in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 82 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 212 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.34 to $1.45 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mixed Tuesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ lower (7¢ to $1.20 lower), except for 37¢ higher in away Jun with likely profit taking ahead of this week’s cash trade.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher, fueled by strong cash demand in the country.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200-$202 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $315-$317 in Nebraska and $315-$320 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.62 higher Tuesday afternoon at $321.20/cwt. Select was 9¢ lower at $306.86.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Tuesday amid continued tariff confusion and little impetus in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to plumb lower Tuesday with follow-through pressure and more on-again, off-again tariff confusion.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 478 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 42 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 46¢ to 53¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service lowered expectations for the five-area direct weighted fed steer price in the first half of this year, compared to the previous month’s forecast, but left them unchanged for the second half, in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Specifically, prices were projected $3 lower in the first quarter at $202/cwt. and $2 lower in the second quarter at $198, based on recent prices. Prices were forecast at $198 in the third quarter and at $200 in the fourth quarter for an annual average price of $200, which was $1 lower than the previous month’s outlook.

Forecast beef production increased by 120 million pounds (0.5%) to 26.7 billion pounds with heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter. This year’s projected beef production would be 303 million pounds less (-1.1%) than last year.

Cattle futures on Monday were mostly able to hold on to the previous session’s strong gains tied to higher cash fed cattle prices and recently stronger wholesale beef values, despite significantly lower outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ higher, except for 2¢ lower in spot Apr.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 93¢ higher (27¢ higher in spot Mar to $1.60 higher at the back), except for 12¢ lower in Apr.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $197/cwt., $2-$4 higher in the North at $200-$202. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at $315-$317 and $3-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt was $315-$320.

The five-area, weighted average direct FOB live steer price was $2.63 higher week to week at $200.28/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $3.51 higher at $316.43.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.68 higher Monday afternoon at $317.58/cwt. Select was $1.15 higher at $306.95.

Nearby Corn and Kansas City Wheat futures were higher Monday with likely positioning ahead of Tuesday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 14¢ higher, also supported by domestic weather concerns. However, Soybean futures were mostly 8¢ to 11¢ lower with pressure including South American harvest pressure.

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Major U.S. financial indices plunged lower Monday amid whirling chatter about U.S. tariffs paving the path to domestic economic recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 890 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 155 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 727 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.14 to $1.24 lower through the front six contracts.

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Cattle markets are expected to continue strong, barring major macroeconomic disruption, such as domestic recession, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

At the same time, Peel expects uncertainty and volatility driven by external forces to continue impacting cattle markets.

“Cattle prices continue to generally grind higher amid a whirlwind of political activities and rhetoric that have buffeted markets at all levels,” Peel says. “Markets have been whipsawed with on-again, off-again political announcements that create debilitating uncertainty in equity, futures and cash markets with negative impacts on producers, consumers and the complex supply chains of agricultural and food markets.”

Cattle futures rebounded Friday, fueled by the higher cash fed cattle prices in the North.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.76 higher ($1.55 higher at the back to $4.00 higher at the front).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.76 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $5.46 higher ($3.42 higher at the back to $7.70 higher toward the front). During the same period, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.85 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade was active on good demand in Nebraska but light with moderate demand in the western Corn Belt.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $197/cwt., but $2-$4 higher in the North at $200-$202. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at $315-$317. The dressed delivered price in the western Corn Belt was $313.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.78 higher Friday afternoon at $314.90/cwt. Select was $2.29 higher at $305.80. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $3.07 higher and Select was $3.75 higher.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 578,000 head was 12,000 head more than the previous week but 6,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 5.5 million head was 410,000 head fewer (-6.9%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 4.8 billion pounds was 129.6 million less (-2.6%).

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher through old-crop contracts and then mostly 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher, except for fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through the front three contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices gyrated across a broad range Friday but settled higher on the day. Initial pressure included softer than expected national employment.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate

changed little at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 10¢ to $35.93. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 222 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 126 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 68¢ to 77¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Exports of U.S. beef trended higher than a year ago to begin 2025, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

January beef exports reached 102,840 metric tons (mt), up 3% year over year, while value increased 5% to $804.6 million. Growth was driven in part by larger exports to China and Canada, while exports to South Korea were steady in volume but higher in value. Strong value increases were also achieved in other key markets, including Taiwan, the Caribbean, Central America and the ASEAN. Exports of beef variety meat were the largest in nearly two years, led by larger shipments to Mexico, Egypt, Canada and China/Hong Kong.

“Demand for U.S. beef came on strong in the Asian markets late last year, and that momentum largely continued in January,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “The performance in Korea is especially encouraging, given the country’s political turmoil and slumping currency. It is also gratifying to see exports trending higher to China, though we are concerned about access to the market moving forward, as many U.S. beef and pork plants are awaiting word on their eligibility beyond mid-March.”

Although still strong, U.S. pork exports in January were 3% less year over year for volume and 2% less for value at $668 million.

“Duty-free access to Mexico, Canada and other free trade agreement partners has definitely underpinned global demand for U.S. red meat and delivered essential returns at every step of the supply chain,” Halstrom says. “The majority of U.S. red meat exports are to countries with which we have trade agreements. Maintaining trust and access to these markets is critical to the continued success of the U.S. industry.”

Cattle futures softened Thursday as outside markets turned more bearish and the week’s cash fed cattle trade remained unestablished.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 46¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in Kansas to mostly inactive on very light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197 in the Southern Plains and $198 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $313.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 42¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $313.12/cwt. Select was 98¢ higher at $303.51.

Grain and Soybean futures rose Thursday, supported by stronger demand and reports of delayed U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 9¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures unchanged to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 17¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices boomeranged lower Thursday with mounting confusion about U.S. tariffs on reports the Trump administration will delay tariffs until April 2 on all Mexican and Canadian imports that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 427 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 104 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 483 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 5¢ lower to 2¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Amid the confusion surrounding on-again, off-again, U.S. tariffs, the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) provides a unique perspective.

In 2024, U.S. beef and pork exports of $19.1 billion – an increase of $1 billion over 2023 and down just 2% from the 2022 record – had a significant impact on the corn and soybean industries, according to an independent study conducted by the Juday Group and released by the USMEF. The study quantified the returns that beef and pork exports brought to U.S. corn and soybean producers.

Nationally, U.S. beef and pork exports accounted for $2.24 billion in market value to corn, $525 million to distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and $1.12 billion to soybeans in 2024.

“Domestic feed usage is critical to our industries and the continued growth in red meat exports is encouraging. A significant share of the corn and soybeans we grow locally is ultimately exported through pork and beef,” says Dave Bruntz, USMEF vice chair, who raises corn, soybeans and fed cattle in south-central Nebraska. “This study demonstrates how beef and pork exports drive value directly back to producers.”