WLI

Cattle futures closed mostly higher again Monday with further follow-through support from last week’s surging cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.10 higher (7¢ higher to $3.12 higher in spot Jun), except for an average 15¢ lower in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ higher, except 30¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were $9 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $232/cwt., $13 higher in Kansas at $235, $7 higher in Nebraska at $242-$244 and $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $240-$242. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $380 and $9 higher in the western Corn Belt at $380.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $6.68 higher at $236.62. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $12.28 higher at $380.34.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.17 higher Monday afternoon at $367.25. Select was $2.20 higher at $358.93.

Turning to the grain complex, Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday with likely pressure from the favorable weather outlook.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mixed, from 4¢ lower to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1 point lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 61 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 92¢ to $1.40 higher through the front six contracts. 

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Depending on the sources consulted and interpretation of the proverbial tea leaves, historically high calf and feeder cattle markets are in a state of flux between some producers pulling calves forward to market at lighter weights than normal to exploit current prices, while others seem to be expressing more willingness to retain more heifers.

“Feeder cattle prices in recent weeks have started to ease in line with typical seasonal trends, moving down marginally as summer commences and calf supplies build towards fall,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the early-June Livestock Monitor. “However, prices remain historically elevated due to continued supply constraints and strong underlying demand.”

The LMIC provides regional year-over-year price perspective for Medium and Large #1-#2 steers weighing 500-600 lbs. at the end of May:

Southern Plains — $389.05/cwt. average (+21.2%)

Nebraska — $392.18/cwt. average (+10.6%)

South Dakota — $405.77/average (+15.3%)

Washington — $391.32/cwt. (+19.7%)

Billings, Mont. — $408.89/cwt. (+20.9%), the highest level so far this year.

Georgia (500-pound steers) — $366.63/cwt. (+18.5%)

Across these six regions, prices were an average of 17.7% higher year over year, equivalent to an increase of $58.66/cwt., according to the LMIC. 

“Since the beginning of the year, prices have steadily climbed to year-to-date highs, with an average magnitude of around 23%, which is about 2% faster than last year,” LMIC analysts say. “Among the six regions, Washington has experienced the most dramatic rise, with prices jumping 39.3% from $298.57/cwt. in January to $416 in April. While similar growth occurred last year, seasonal highs were not reached until late June, raising question about whether some areas of the U.S. have yet to see their peak.”

Looking ahead, LMIC analysts say feeder steer prices are expected to remain above last year’s levels, although the rate of increase will likely slow.

“Among the regions mentioned, Georgia and the Southern Plains have yet to break the $400/cwt. mark, while states like Nebraska and Washington have seen a decrease from peaks of approximately 6%, falling back below the $400 threshold,” LMIC analysts explain. “Although tight supplies continue to support prices, regional variations in forage conditions and placement patterns may introduce greater price fluctuations across different areas as we move forward.”

Cattle futures closed mostly higher again Friday with follow-through support from the week’s surging cash fed cattle prices.

Live cattle futures closed an average of $1.16 higher (12¢ higher toward the back to $3.40 higher at the front), except for 2¢ lower in away Aug.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 61¢ higher (5¢ higher at the back to $1.00 higher at the front).

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $6.27 higher ($3.15 higher toward the back to $10.82 higher in spot June). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $9.79 higher ($6.92 higher at the back to $11.42 higher toward the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades in the Texas Panhandle at $232/cwt., which was steady with the previous day and $9 higher than the previous week.

FOB live prices in Kansas were $5 higher than Thursday at $235, which was $13 more than the previous week.

In Nebraska, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher than Thursday at $242-$244, which was $7 higher than the previous week. Dressed delivered prices for the week were $10-$15 higher at $380.

In the western Corn Belt, FOB live prices were $3-$10 higher at $240, while dressed delivered prices were $9 higher at $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.77 lower Friday afternoon at $365.08. Select was 12¢higher at $356.73. Week to week on Friday,         Choice was $1.26 lower and Select was 8¢ higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 582,000 head was 105,000 head more than the previous week but 28,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 12.9 million head was 847,000 head fewer (-6.2%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 11.2 billion pounds was 328.2 million pounds less (-2.8%).

Turning to the grain complex, Grain and Soybean futures mostly extended gains Friday with support from announced trade talks between the U.S. and China, and perhaps some inkling of a weather premium.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by stronger job growth than expected.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15¢, or 0.4%, to $36.24 in May. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 443 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 231 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 79¢ to $1.21 higher through the front six contracts. 

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U.S. beef exports lost ground in April, due in part to China’s retaliatory tariffs and that nation’s failure to renew establishment registrations for U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities, the majority of which expired in mid-March.

April U.S. beef exports of 100,659 metric tons (mt) in April were 10% less than a year earlier, while value fell 8% to $824.5 million, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). For January through April, beef exports were 3% below last year’s pace at 411,027 mt. Export value was down just 1% to $3.35 billion.

Exports to China declined nearly 70% and shipments also trended lower to Mexico, Taiwan and the Middle East. These results were partially offset by larger exports to South Korea, Japan and Central and South America.

“We expected beef shipments to China to hit a wall in April, due to the one-two punch of higher tariffs and expired plant registrations,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “We are hopeful that these issues will be resolved soon and are encouraged by this week’s developments on trade negotiations with China. In the meantime, USMEF remains committed to market diversification and we have accelerated efforts to develop alternative destinations for cuts and variety meat items normally shipped to China.”

China’s total duties on U.S. beef peaked in April at 147%. The rate was lowered to 32% on May 14 when the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary de-escalation to allow for further negotiations. (Product that shipped prior to April 10 was allowed to clear without the additional 125%, provided it arrived by May 13.) President Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on June 5 and said further talks will be held soon.

April beef exports equated to $396.71 per head of fed slaughter, down 5% from a year ago. The January-April per-head average was still up 1% to $415.16.

For broader perspective, U.S. pork exports totaled 237,250 mt in April, down 15% from a year ago and the lowest in 10 months. Export value fell 13% to $675.3 million. Exports to China, which are mainly pork variety meats, declined 35% from a year ago.

Thursday was a banner day for cash fed cattle with active trade and very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Compared to the previous week, FOB live prices were mostly $9 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $232/cwt., $10 higher in Kansas at $232 with some up to $235, $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $240-$241 and $3-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $240. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $380 and $9 higher in the western Corn Belt at $380.

Cattle futures followed surging cash prices higher.

Live cattle futures closed an average of $2.69 higher ($1.30 higher at the back to $4.50 higher at the front).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.91 higher ($2.50 higher at the back to $5.27 higher at the front).

Cattle futures were trading higher again Friday, after earlier mixed trade.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.69 higher Thursday afternoon at $366.85/cwt. Select was 11¢ lower at $356.61.

Turning to the grain complex, Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.  Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased lower Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 108 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 31 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 162 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 52¢ to 59¢ higher through the front six contracts. 

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday with the hint of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.28 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.68 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on good demand in the Southern Plains to inactive on moderate demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $224-$225/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $225 in Kansas.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $223 in the Texas Panhandle, $222 in Kansas, $235-$237 in Nebraska and $230-$237 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365-$370 in Nebraska and $371 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 28¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $365.16/cwt. Select was 20¢ higher at $356.72.

Turning to the grain complex, futures were higher Wednesday with likely short covering and perhaps some weather premium.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, pressured by less job growth than expected in widely watched ADP^® National Employment Report^™. It pegs private sector employment increasing by 37,000 jobs in May, significantly less than the trade anticipated.

“After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum, says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “Pay growth, however, was little changed in May, holding at robust levels for both job-stayers and job-changers.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 91 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 61 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 67¢ to 72¢ lower. 

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Agricultural producer sentiment improved in May, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. It rose 10 points from the previous month to 158, marking the second consecutive month of improvement and the highest level since May 2021.

More optimism for U.S. agricultural exports and less pessimism about tariff impacts on farm income this year drove improved sentiment.

Both the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations contributed to the overall increase, with the current conditions index up 5 points to 146 and the future expectations index jumping 12 points to 164.

“While the uptick in sentiment is certainly notable, it’s important to recognize that producers are navigating a complex mix of optimism and caution,” explains Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Producers’ expectations for exports and farm income have improved, but concerns remain about capital investment and, for some operations, the potential for labor shortages due to immigration policy changes.”

The May barometer survey took place May 12-16.

Live Cattle futures started strong but were an average of $1.14 lower toward the close Tuesday, as traders awaited the week’s cash direction. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 21¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $223/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $222 in Kansas, $235-$237 in Nebraska and $230-$237 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365-$370 in Nebraska and $371 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 56¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $365.44/cwt. Select was $1.59 lower at $356.52.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday with likely short covering and perhaps some weather premium.

Toward the close and through Mar ‘26 contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 214 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 156 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 84¢ to 85¢ higher.  

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Although cash cattle prices are historically high, driven by tightening cattle supplies relative to demand, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University suspects cyclically high prices still remain on the horizon when herd rebuilding finally takes hold. He provides perspective on snugging supplies in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Typically beef production increases through the summer supported by heavier weights. This will likely be the case this year. But a detailed examination of placements across different weight groups suggests very tight supplies,” Koontz says. “These marketings-based-on-placements can be calculated using the Cattle on Feed report information from placements in the different weight groups. Assumptions are needed about average daily gain and days on feed to make grade. But once done, these prospective marketings are very tight compared to prior years’ calculations.

“Another two series of inventories calculated from the report that I watch are cattle on feed over 120 days and over 150 days. Both are large and reinforce that the inventory of cattle on feed numbers is weighted to the end of the feeding period. Supplies will be tight for much of the remainder of the year.”

With supply etched, Koontz explains cattle prices will be written by consumer beef demand and communicated through boxed beef cutout values. Although wholesale beef values are currently excellent, he points out fed cattle prices are more aggressive, further pressuring weak packer margins at a time of year when margins are typically among the strongest of the year.

“Therefore, up-moves for cattle will be reasonably limited and focus for the cattle outlook should be any beef market weakness,” Koontz says.