WLI

Cattle futures gained Wednesday and continued to retrench, supported by higher outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.08 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.39 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197 in the Southern Plains and $198 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $313.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.33 lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.54/cwt. Select was $1.49 lower at $302.53.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday, taking a breather from recent tariff pressure.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 9¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rallied Wednesday with chatter that the Trump administration will delay tariffs on automakers that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement established in 2020, raising hopes for other tariff concessions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 485 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 64 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 267 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.39 to $1.83 lower through the front six contracts, pressured by concerns about tariff impacts on demand.

Cattle futures steadied Tuesday after initial pressure tied to new U.S. tariffs and worries about how trading partners will respond.

“We are reviewing the retaliatory measures announced by Canada and China and are watching for details on the response from Mexico,” says Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). “These three markets accounted for $8.4 billion in U.S. red meat exports last year, including nearly $4 billion to Mexico. While the United States is the primary supplier of pork and beef to Mexico, U.S. red meat has already been facing heightened competition in this critical market.”

Last year U.S. beef exports equated to more than $415 per fed steer or heifer slaughtered and pork exports equated to more than $66 per head slaughtered. These exports, a large share of which are underutilized cuts and variety meat, help producers maximize the value of every animal produced and allow U.S. consumers to enjoy more of the cuts they prefer.   

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.28 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ higher, except for an average of 23¢ lower at either end of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in Kansas through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live FOB trades  $195/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197 in the Southern Plains and $198 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $313.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 92¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $314.85/cwt. Select was $1.61 higher at $304.02.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Tuesday, but off session lows, in defense against the U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices slid further Tuesday with the new U.S. tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 670 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 71 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 48¢ to 60¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment edged higher in February, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index increased 11 points from the previous month to a reading of 152. Gains were driven primarily by the Current Conditions Index, which rose 28 points to 137, marking a significant rebound from its low of 76 in late summer and early fall 2024. In contrast, the Future Expectations Index increased 3 points to 159.

The recent upswing in sentiment reflects a combination of factors, including a sharp recovery in crop prices, expectations for disaster payments authorized by Congress and continued strength in the U.S. livestock sector, according to Ag Barometer analysts.

“While the current outlook for U.S. agriculture has improved, farmers are closely watching trade policy and the potential for a new farm bill, both of which are key factors shaping their long-term expectations,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “These ongoing policy concerns will likely play a critical role in shaping producer sentiment in the months ahead.”

Cattle futures extended losses from the previous session on Monday, and for the same reasons: long-position liquidation by funds tied to growing uncertainty tied to looming U.S. tariffs and concerns about domestic economic growth.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 74¢lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $197/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $198 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $198. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $313.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.99 lower at $197.65. The weighted averaged dressed delivered steer price was $2.20 lower at $312.92.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 higher Monday afternoon at $313.93/cwt. Select was 36¢ higher at $302.41.

Grain and Soybean futures continued to unwind Monday with the looming threat of U.S. tariffs.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 13¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 15¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday with U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada slated to begin Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 649 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 104 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 497 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.11 to $1.46 lower through the front six contracts.

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Contracting cattle supplies pushing feeder cattle prices higher — with value increasing faster at lighter weights — clouds stocker and backgrounding opportunity, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“The current market is characterized by tight feeder cattle supplies and relatively low feedlot cost of gain. The role of the stocker industry gets squeezed in this environment,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “On the one hand, high calf prices are encouraging herd rebuilding and increased calf production. In other words, the market is indicating that the highest and best use of forage is for calf production rather than forage-based stocker production. On the other hand, low feedlot cost of gain and tight feeder supplies are encouraging feedlots to place animals sooner and at lighter weights, effectively bidding them away from stocker production.”

Peel notes both influences are reflected by the wide price in feeder cattle prices, from light to heavy, which equate to a large price rollback and relatively low value of gain for stocker production.

“Stocker production will still occur, but the opportunities will be fewer and the margins will be trickier,” Peel says. “However, when heifer retention begins, feeder supplies will be further squeezed from a feedlot perspective, but many of those heifers will need a growing phase as part of their development for breeding and thus provide a stocker role.”

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with the week’s lower cash fed cattle trade, sluggish wholesale beef prices, position squaring and wariness over the impact of U.S. tariffs set to begin this week.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.58 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.45 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower (10¢ to $1.55 lower), except for an average of 19¢ higher in the back three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 5.10 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $2 lower at $197/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was light on light to moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $198. The previous week, prices were $199-$200 in Nebraska and $199 to $201 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $313. The previous week, prices were $315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 65¢ higher Friday afternoon at $311.83/cwt. Select was 8¢ lower at $302.05.

Grain futures sank Friday with apparent risk-of fund selling tied to looming U.S. tariffs and more bearish economic growth expectations, in tandem with week-end and month-end position squaring.

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 28¢ lower in the front six contracts.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 7¢ to 13¢ lower on Friday. Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 12¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on a late-session surge, likely tied to month-end position squaring. Before the reversal, indices continued lower with negative economic news including a lower projection of domestic economic growth.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 was -1.5% on Feb. 28, down from 2.3% on Feb. 19. The GDPNow is a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 601 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 92 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 302 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 59¢ to 65¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA raised expected fiscal year 2025 (FY25) exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy by $400 million to $39.7 billion in the latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. The increase was based on more beef and dairy exports.

Projected beef exports were raised $300 million to $9.1 billion on higher volumes and increased unit values.

U.S. agricultural exports in FY25 were projected at $170.5 billion, up $500 million from the November forecast, as higher grain and feed exports offset reductions to the oilseed outlook.

FY 2025 U.S. grain and feed exports were forecast at $37.7 billion, up $1.2 billion from the November forecast. Higher exports of corn and feeds and fodders more than offset modestly lower wheat, sorghum, and rice exports. Corn exports were forecast at $13.8 billion, up $1.4 billion from November on higher volumes and unit values.

For broader context, U.S. GDP was forecast to grow 2.7% in Calendar Year (CY 2025), an upward revision from the previous Outlook. Growth in CY25 is expected to be driven by less restrictive monetary policy and robust consumer spending associated with relatively low unemployment and growing business investment.

World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was projected to rise slightly to 3.3% in CY25.

Cattle futures gained Thursday with support from lower feed futures and the likelihood of fewer Mexican cattle imports when new tariffs begin.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 67¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Southern Plains to limited on very light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $199/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $199-$200 in Nebraska and $199-$201 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.72 lower Thursday afternoon at $311.18/cwt. Select was $1.11 lower at $302.13.

Grain futures were lower again Thursday with likely liquidation prior to the first notice day on Friday, looming U.S. tariffs and intitial domestic grain production estimates (see below).

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 8¢ to 14¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 15¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, driven by tech stocks and looming U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico presumably starting next week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 193 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 94 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 530 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.12 to $1.50 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA projects acres planted to corn, wheat and soybeans to be 1.3 million acres more (+0.6%) year over year at 225 million acres, according to data released at the Agricultural Outlook Forum.

Corn acres were estimated at 90.4 million acres, which would be 3.4 million acres more (+3.8%) than last year.

Wheat acres were projected 900,000 acres more than last year (+1.6%) at 47.0 million acres.

Soybean acres were estimated 3.1 million acres less (-3.6%) at 84.0 million acres.

More specifically…

Corn

The 2025/26 corn crop was projected at a record 15.59 billion bushels, up about 5% from the prior year. Yield was projected at 181.0 bushels per acre, based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.

With beginning stocks down from the prior year, total corn supplies were forecast at a record 17.15 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 was forecast record high as growth in domestic use is partially offset by lower exports.

Ending stocks were projected at 1.97 billion bushels, up 425 million from a year ago, resulting in stocks relative to use at 12.9%, which if realized would be the highest since 2019/20. The season-average corn price received by producers was forecast 15¢ less year over year at $4.20 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supplies were forecast to rise less than 1% in 2025/26 on higher beginning stocks and a relatively small increase to production. Assuming normal weather conditions, soybean yield was forecast 1.8 bushels per acre more at 52.5 bushels per acre. However higher yield mostly would be offset by lower planted acreage.

With higher exports and crush, soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 were projected 60 million bushels less year over year at 320 million bushels.

Despite lower stocks, ample global supplies will continue to pressure soybean prices. The season-average farm price was projected at $10.00 per bushel, down 10¢ from the previous marketing year.

Wheat

The 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook was for higher supplies, unchanged total use, and increased ending stocks. U.S. wheat production was projected 2% less than the previous year at 1,926 million bushels on a slight reduction in harvested area and a lower yield.

Despite an expected increase in planted acres, harvested area was forecast slightly lower at 38.4 million acres, based on the 10-year average harvest-to-plant ratio. The all-wheat yield for 2025/26 was projected 2% less year over year at 50.1 bushels per acre, based on a long-term linear trend.

With supplies projected to increase more than total use, 2025/26 ending stocks were raised 4% year over year to 826 million bushels, which would be the most in five years. However, the stocks-to-use ratio of 41% is only minimally higher than 2024/25, resulting in a 2025/26 wheat season-average farm price of $5.50 per bushel, only slightly less than the previous year. Wheat prices are also expected to be supported by corn prices projected only marginally lower in 2025/26.