WLI

Cattle futures softened Wednesday with the lack of weekly cash direction in the fed cattle market.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ lower, except for 20¢ higher in spot Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in Kansas to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $199/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $199-$200 in Nebraska and $199-$201 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.42 lower Wednesday afternoon at $312.90/cwt. Select was 89¢ lower at $303.24.

Grain and Soybean futures were softer again Wednesday with pressure including positive crop progress and planting in South America and USDA’s first planting projections, albeit unofficial, expected during this week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures unchanged to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Wednesday. Pressure included increasing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs — from reports of another pause on those planned for Canada and Mexico and new ones aimed at the European Union.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 48 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 17¢ to 36¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Jan. 31 were 2% more than the previous month but down slightly year over year, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were up 3% from the previous month but were 11% less than a year earlier.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 3% more than the previous month but 6% less than a year earlier.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 5% from the previous month but were 6% less than a year ago.

Cattle futures were higher Tuesday, helped along by stronger wholesale beef values, another day of lower Corn futures and follow-through support tied to the recent Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close on Tuesday, Live Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.98 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $199/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $199-$200 in Nebraska and $199-$201 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $314.32/cwt. Select was 16¢ higher at $304.13.

Grain and Soybean futures eased lower again Tuesday with likely month-end position squaring and wariness about any initial acreage projections USDA shares during this week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Tuesday, with pressure including another reading of gloomy consumer confidence.

“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” says Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a 10-month high.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 159 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 28 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 260 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.56 to $1.65 lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for February continues to paint a pessimistic picture of the rural economy, declining 4.2 points from January to a reading of 38.0 in February. It was the 17th time in the last 18 months the RMI was below growth neutral.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The economic outlook for grain farmers remained weak for 2025. However, grain prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability for many producers,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “On the other hand, regional livestock producers continue to experience solid prices with only 9.3% of bankers expecting negative cash flow for ranchers in 2025.”

Farmland prices sank below growth neutral for the eighth time in the past nine months, with the region’s farmland price index falling 2 points month to month to 40.0. That was the lowest level since October 2024.

“Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below breakeven prices for a high share of grain farmers in the region, have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” Goss says.

Similarly, Goss notes high input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment. The farm equipment sales index in February was a weak 18.2, marking the 19th consecutive month below growth neutral.

Overall, rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, buoyed by the recent Cattle on Feed report and a sharp decline in Grain futures.

Toward the close on Monday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.31 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.10 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Southern Plains at $199/cwt., $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $199-$200 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $199-$201. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$6 lower at $315.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $3.27 lower at $199.64/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.40 lower at $315.12.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.96 higher Monday afternoon at $313.73/cwt. Select was $1.41 higher at $303.97.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday with pressure including tariff concerns, early month-end position squaring and perhaps wariness about any initial acreage projections USDA shares during this week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial closed mixed Monday, mostly retaining and extending losses from the previous two sessions. Pressure included tech stocks and looming U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 33 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 237 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ to 43¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s recent Cattle on Feed report also provided an update on feedlot capacity and a summary of cattle fed and marketed by all feedlots in 2023 and 2024. Together, they paint a picture of continuing concentration.

Painting with a broad brush, 26,105 feedlots last year marketed 24.82 million head, compared to 25,103 feedlots marketing 24.84 million head the previous year. So, there were 1,002 more feedlots last year —1,000 of them representing feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, there were 10 more year over year with a capacity of 1,000 to 1,999 head, 10 fewer with a capacity of 8,000 to 15,999 head, two fewer with a capacity of 24,000 to 31,999 head and two more with a capacity of 50,000 head or more.

Feedlot capacity increased by 100,000 head year over year at the beginning of 2025 to 17.2 million head for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity.

Cattle futures firmed on Friday and closed higher week to week, despite the decline in cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.09 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 96¢ higher (7¢ to $1.57 higher), except for an average of 21¢ lower in two nearby contracts.  Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 2.20 higher week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in Kansas to light on light demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Southern Plains at $199/cwt. and $3.00 to $3.50 lower in Nebraska at $199.50 to $200. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $5-$6 lower at $315.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $203 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $320-$321.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.86 lower Friday afternoon at $310.77/cwt. Select was 62¢ lower at $302.56. Week to week, Choice was $3.93 lower and Select was $4.58 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 563,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week but 27,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 4.4 million head was 379,000 fewer (-8.0%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 3.8 billion pounds was 144.6 million pounds less (-3.6%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.  

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower through Jly ’26 and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 6¢ lower through near Aug and then mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Friday, amid dimming consumer confidence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 748 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 104 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 438 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.87 to $2.08 lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s Cattle on Feed report as neutral with fewer placements than expected but also fewer marketings.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.8 million head in January, which was 1.7% more year over year but 1.3% less than expected.

In terms of placement weights, 42% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 48% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 10% weighing 900 pound or more.

Marketings in January of 1.9 million head were 26,000 head more (+1.4%) year over year and 0.8% less than expected.

Cattle on feed Feb. 1 of 11.7 million head were 81,000 head fewer (-0.7%) than the same time last year. Also of note, there were 3% fewer heifers and heifer calves on feed at the beginning of the year than last year.

Cattle futures were lower Thursday with dimming cash fed cattle price  prospects, unwinding wholesale beef values, more bearish outside markets and perhaps positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report due out Friday. Ahead of the report, analysts see January placement 3% higher year over year, January marketings about 2% higher and the on-feed inventory Feb. 1 at about 99%.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 65¢ lower, except for unchanged in spot Feb. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.11 lower, except 20¢ higher in Nov.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to light on light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few FOB live trades in Kansas at $199/cwt., and a few dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $315, but too few transactions to trend in any region.

Last week, FOB live prices were $203/cwt. in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $320-$321.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.26 lower Thursday afternoon at $312.63/cwt. Select was 58¢ lower at $303.18.

Soybean futures led Corn futures higher Thursday amid chatter from the White House that a trade deal with China could get done.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 9¢ to 13¢ higher. Corn futures were unchanged to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by retail stocks, including Walmart.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 450 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 26 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 93 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 28¢ to 45¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) provide further context to the cattle inventory and beef cow herd at the beginning of this year, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“The culling rate of beef cows in 2024 was over 10% of the beef cow inventory on Jan. 1, 2024, a 2% decline from last year and the lowest since 2019,” ERS analysts explains “For additional context, the number of beef cows is down 39% from the historic peak set in 1975 of 45.712 million head and is the smallest beef cow inventory since 1961. As the number of beef heifers available for addition to the herd is correlated to the size of the beef cow herd and the previous year’s calf crop, beef heifer replacements also peaked in 1975 at 8.884 million head and have since fallen 47%.”

As for expansion potential, considering the last three cattle cycles — including the beginning of the current one — ERS analysts explain the percentage of beef heifers kept for replacements in the coming year had several years of increasing proportions year-over-year, compared to the previous year’s calf crop.

“If the same pattern holds in the future, it could be several years from now before the U.S. cattle herd expands,” ERS analysts say. “Biologically speaking, many of the offspring from heifers born in 2024 would not enter the beef cow herd until the 2027. Historically high prices for calves

likely encouraged many producers to market their heifer calves to the feeder market in 2024.”