WLI

Cattle futures closed lower Wednesday on likely profit taking and the absence of weekly cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.38 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 lower.

 Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $196-$197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200 in Nebraska and the western Corn. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.82 higher Wednesday afternoon at $328.61/cwt. Select was $1.46 higher at $306.89.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with pressure from the higher U.S. dollar and perhaps some positioning ahead of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Grain Stocks report due out this Friday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday. Negative news included release of the FOMC minutes from their December meeting, which cast a shadow on future interest rate cuts.

“… With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2%, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated …” according to the minutes. “… In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants indicated that the Committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing …”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 106 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 9 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 75¢ to 92¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Strong fundamentals and increasing open interest helped lift Cattle futures Tuesday.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.95 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $196-$197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200 in Nebraska and the western Corn. Dressed delivered prices were $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.31 lower Tuesday afternoon at $325.79/cwt. Select was $2.10 higher at $305.43.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Tuesday with traders keeping in mind the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Grain Stocks report due out this Friday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mainly unchanged. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, pressured by rising Treasury yields, strengthened in part by stronger than expected growth in the service sector that many viewed as a drag to potential interest rate cuts this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 178 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 66 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 375 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 49¢ to 75¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment drifted lower month to month in December, declining 9 points to an overall reading of 136, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Producers’ perception of current conditions drove the decline with the Index of Current Conditions dropping 9 points to 136, which was still 24 points above the low in September. The Index of Future Expectations fell 8 points to 153, remaining 59 points above its September low.

“While sentiment dipped this month, it’s clear that much of the postelection optimism about future conditions is still holding strong,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Producers’ optimism about the future seems to stem largely from their expectations for a more favorable policy environment over the next five years.”

International agricultural trade remains an ongoing concern for U.S. producers. In December, 43% of survey respondents chose trade policy as the most important policy for their operation in the upcoming five years.

Moreover, the November and December barometer surveys asked producers about the likelihood of a trade war that could negatively affect U.S. agricultural exports. In December, 48% of producers said they believe a trade war that harms agricultural exports is either likely (32%) or very likely (16%), an increase from 42% in November. Conversely, only 21% of respondents in December viewed a trade war as either unlikely (17%) or very unlikely (4%), down from 26% in November.

This month’s survey was conducted from Dec. 2-6, 2024.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday on bullish fundamentals, following the previous session’s profit taking.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.82 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. 

Last week, FOB live prices were $4 higher in the Southern Plains at $197/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $200 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $200. Dressed delivered prices were $8 higher at $315.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price was $4.12 higher at $198.93. The weighted averaged dressed delivered steer price was $7.91 higher at $314.96.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.86 higher Monday afternoon at $327.10/cwt. Select was $6.61 higher at $303.33.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Monday, buoyed by South American weather expectations.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with tech stocks providing the most support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 25 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 243 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 20¢ to 49¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Whether or not heifer retention begins this year, Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says cattle prices should remain elevated for two to four more years.

Peel offers a couple of potential scenarios in his weekly market comments.

If heifer retention begins this year, Peel explains tighter feeder cattle supplies will push cattle prices and cow-calf returns higher. Retained heifer calves would lead to increased heifer inventories in 2026 and potential beef cow herd growth in 2027.

Conversely, if heifer retention fails to begin in 2025, Peel explains, “The cow herd will continue to dwindle, and cattle supplies will continue to slowly contract with higher cattle prices and a smaller industry until herd rebuilding begins.”

As it is, Peel notes the beef cow herd likely contracted last year, while limited supplies of replacement heifers suggest further contraction or stabilization at best in 2025.

“Historically, herd expansions require a year or two to gain momentum before herd inventories begin to increase. That process has not begun,” Peel says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active to moderate on very good demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade in the Southern Plains was light on good demand.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4-$5 higher in the Southern Plains at mainly $197/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $200 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $200. Dressed delivered prices were $8 higher at $315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.76 higher Friday afternoon at $325.24/cwt. Select was $2.49 higher at $296.72.

Based on the last full week of December, estimated total cattle slaughter in 2024 was about 1.2 million head less (-3.7%) year over year, while estimated beef production was 169.1 million pounds less (-0.6%).

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.32 lower.  Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.02 lower, except for 45¢ higher in spot Feb.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.32 higher (32¢ to $3.62 higher) except for 70¢ lower in the back contract. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.57 higher through the front three contracts and then an average of 37¢ higher.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday.

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 9¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then mostly 5¢ lower with some likely producer selling.  

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 13¢ lower through Jly ’26, pressured by poor exports and positive domestic production conditions. Net U.S. weekly export sales for the week ending Dec. 26 were down 77% from the previous week — a marketing year lower — and 68% less than the prior four-week period.

Soybean futures closed mostly 16¢ to 21¢ lower, also pressured by anemic export sales — down 51% from the prior week and down 67% from the previous four-week average.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 339 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 73 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 340 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 55¢ to 83¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Hay prices near the end of 2024 were the cheapest in about four years, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor.

Since the beginning of the 2023-24 crop year, LMIC analysts explain national alfalfa hay prices declined $123 per ton from $288 in April 2023 to $165 in November last year. LMIC forecasts the 2024-25 alfalfa hay price to range from $170-$180 per ton.

Similarly, other hay prices declined by $89 per ton from $248 in Oct. 2022 to $159 in November last year. LMIC forecasts the 2024-25 other hay price at around $150 per ton.

“The January Crop Production report from USDA NASS will detail the December 1 hay stocks at the state level. This will be a key piece of information providing further insights into the available hay supplies moving into 2025, which could influence hay prices,” say LMIC analysts. “Drought will be another factor influencing hay prices and production. The most recent estimate from USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) states, ‘… approximately 46% of alfalfa hay acreage is within an area experiencing drought.’”

Cattle futures rose Thursday, led by cash.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.41 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.35 higher, except for $1.22 lower in newly minted away Jun. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on good demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $3-$4 higher at $196/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on good demand with too few transactions to trend.

FOB live prices last week were $192-$193/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $196-$197 in Nebraska and $195-$197 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $307.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 24¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $323.48/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $294.23.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued lower Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 151 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 30 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.41 higher through the front six contracts.