WLI

Cattle futures closed mostly higher Monday, supported by Choice wholesale beef values and softer Corn futures.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 26¢ higher, except for 40¢ lower in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ higher, except for an average of 51¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were generally steady to $1 higher at $186-$187/cwt. in Kansas, $187 in the Texas Panhandle and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $296.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 32¢ higher at $187.21/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 8¢ lower at $295.92.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 higher Monday afternoon at $313.32/cwt. Select was 38¢ higher at $289.10.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Monday, with pressure including a positive South American weather outlook and the recently stronger U.S. dollar.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 13¢ to 14¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indexes continued higher on bullish sentiment Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 201 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 159 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.17 to $1.57 lower through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle traded mixed to higher last week at the weekly auctions monitored by Cattle Current. In fact, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee notes calf prices are strengthening counter-seasonally.

“October tends to be the month in which calf prices reach their seasonal low, as many producers are bringing their spring born calf crop to market,” Griffith explains in his weekly market comments. “The softness in the market tends to still be evident in November before slowly firming in December. Contrary to this seasonal tendency is the fall of 2024. The price of calves may have already achieved its seasonal low as two consecutive weeks of higher prices to start October may be the price reversal. If the price lows for the fall marketing time period have already been experienced, then cattle producers have much more to look forward to as prices will be expected to increase through the spring.”

Griffith notes the declining cattle supplies coming into play.

“It is well documented that fewer cows were in the herd, which means fewer calves available for stocker, backgrounding, and feedlot operations,” Griffith says. “This known information has been masked to some degree as feeder cattle have continued making their way to the feedlot due to heifers not being retained and strong beef production from growing cattle larger in the feedlot.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices ended last week generally steady to $1 higher. FOB live prices were generally $186-$187/cwt. in Kansas, $187 in the Texas Panhandle and $187-$188 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $296.

Cattle futures closed mixed on Friday but higher week to week. Live Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ lower, except for unchanged in away Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 48¢ higher (5¢ to $1.05 higher), except for an average of 34¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.03 higher (25¢ to $1.70 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.69 higher (7¢ to $4.60 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.27 higher Friday afternoon at $311.12/cwt. Select was $2.01 lower at $288.72. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $8.64 higher and Select was $1.11 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 586,000 head was 25,000 head fewer than the previous week and 30,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 24.5 million head was 975,000 head fewer (-3.8%). Year-to-date beef production of 20.7 billion pounds was 152.7 million pounds less (-0.7%).

Turning to crops, Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday, lacking support from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indexes closed higher Friday, boosted by bank stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 409 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 60 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 11¢ to 29¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the expected five-area average direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year and the beginning of next year, in the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That was based on prices in September and expectations of continued strong demand for fed cattle.

Compared to the previous month’s projection the ERS increased the five-area price by $1.26 in the third quarter to $189.26 and by $3 in the fourth quarter to $186 for an annual average price of $186.18, which was $1.07 higher.

Projected prices for next year increased by $1 in the first quarter to $187. The projected annual 2025 price also increased by $1 to $187.

Compared to the previous month, the ERS increased expected beef production for this year by 205 million pounds to 27 billion pounds, which would be slightly more than last year. Next year’s projected beef production of 25.9 billion pounds would be 1.1 billion pounds less than this year’s estimated production (-4%).

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

Corn production for 2024/25was forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from the previous month on an increase of 0.2 bushels in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre. Total use was raised slightly to 15.0 billion bushels reflecting greater exports. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks were cut 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

Soybeans

2024/25 U.S. soybean production was forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million on a projected 0.1-bushel decline in yield to 53.1 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies were lowered 2.0 million bushels to 4.9 billion. Ending stocks were unchanged from the previous month at 550 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 was unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices also were unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42¢ per pound, respectively.

Wheat

The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat was for reduced supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected ending stocks were lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, which still would be 17% more than the previous year. The season average farm price was unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.

Cattle futures gained Thursday, with steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices and higher wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 66¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $186-$187/cwt. and steady in the North at $187. Dressed delivered prices are steady at $296.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Texas Panhandle.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.77 higher Thursday afternoon at $309.95/cwt. Select was $2.10 higher at $290.73.

Corn and soybean futures were lower Thursday with harvest pressure and more positive weather in South America. There was also likely positioning ahead of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates due out on Friday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indexes closed slightly lower Thursday, pressured by readings of more inflation and employment weakness than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% month to month in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment.

On the labor front, for the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims was 33,000 more than the previous week at 258,000, the highest level since August 5.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 9 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.96 to $2.33 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports weakened toward the end of summer, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports in August totaled 102,682 metric tons (mt), down 6% from a year earlier and the lowest since January. Export value fell 4% to $845.9 million. Through the first eight months of the year, beef exports were 3% below last year at 856,834 mt but were 4% higher in value at just under $7 billion.

“Beef demand in our major Asian markets seemed to lose a bit of momentum in August, but exports held up well to Mexico, Taiwan and the Middle East,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “The headwinds in Asia remain formidable, but we are encouraged by the region’s ongoing tourism rebound. The late-September removal of Colombia’s restrictions on U.S. beef is also a positive development. While this came too late to impact the August results, it will help bolster fourth-quarter demand in Latin America.”

U.S. beef export value equated to $391.19 per head of fed slaughter in August, down 1% from a year ago. The January-August average was $414.88 per head, up 5%.

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday, with overbought conditions and the lack of weekly cash direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.11 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few FOB live trades at $187/cwt., but too few to trend. Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186 in the Southern Plains, $187 in Nebraska and $187-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.34 higher Wednesday afternoon at $308.18/cwt. Select was 2¢ higher at $288.63.

Turning to grains, toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 431 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 49 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 55¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were higher Tuesday, supported again by recently stronger Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 54¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.51 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $187 and mostly steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $296 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 91¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $306.84/cwt. Select was 72¢ lower at $288.61.

Corn and soybean futures were lower Tuesday with harvest pressure and a more positive planting outlook for South America.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 15¢ to 19¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, supported by easing oil prices and stronger tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 55 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 259 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.52 to $3.54 lower through the front six contracts.