WLI

Cattle futures mostly extended gains Monday, supported by recently stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ higher with the strongest support at the back half of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.69 higher across a broad range, except for an average of 49¢ lower in two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $187 and mostly steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187-$188. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $296 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $296.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.35 higher Monday afternoon at $305.93/cwt. Select was $1.72 higher at $289.33.

Corn and wheat futures added apparent risk premium Monday. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices basically gave back the previous session’s strong gains Monday, under pressure from spiking oil prices and bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 398 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 55 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 213 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $2.72 to $2.91 higher through the front six contracts.

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Approximately half of the winter wheat crop was planted as of October. 6, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report with 51% in the ground, which was 1% behind last year and the five-year average.

However, planting is running well behind in key states like Oklahoma.

“Opportunities for wheat grazing are slipping aways quickly,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “At the end of September, wheat planting in Oklahoma was 22%, compared to a 32% average for the previous five years. Some wheat has been dusted into dry soil to await moisture. Some wheat is up but stands are small and not growing much due to the lack of moisture.” The latest Crop Progress reports pegs Oklahoma planting at 32% versus 43% a year earlier and 46% for average.

As for other crops, 30% of corn was harvested, which was 1% less than a year earlier but 3% more than average. Sixty-four percent was rated as Good (49%) or Excellent (15%) compared to 53% at the same time last year.

Similarly, 47% of soybeans were harvested, which was 10% more than a year earlier and 13% more than average. Sixty-three percent were rated as Good (51%) or Excellent (12%) versus 51% at the same time last year.

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by more bullish outside markets, indications of stronger cash trade and perhaps added confidence from the resolution to the dock strikes, at least for now.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher (45¢ to $2.25 higher). Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.97 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.78 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were moderate in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 higher at $186/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week FOB Live prices were mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.78 higher Friday afternoon at $302.58/cwt. Select was $4.32 higher at $287.61.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 611,000 head was 1,000 head fewer than the previous week and 16,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 23.9 million head was 950,000 head fewer (-3.8%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 20.2 billion pounds was 150.1 million pounds less (-0.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower again Friday with harvest pressure.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by a monthly jobs report that far exceeded expectations.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, leaving the unemployment rate little changed at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increased by 13¢ to $35.36.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 341 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 51 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 219 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 1¢ to 67¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle traded mainly steady to higher at last week’s auctions monitored by Cattle Current, supported by stronger Cattle futures.

Overall, though, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee notes there are several factors working against calf prices currently.

“There are a few factors working against calf prices at the moment,”

“The first is clearly the seasonal trend associated with a large number of calves being weaned and marketed during the fall months,” Griffith explains, in his weekly market comments. “The second is the increased incidence of morbidity and mortality associated with the drastic temperature swings that will soon come into play. Third is the widespread drought conditions in many parts of the country.”

Approximately 70% of the continental United States is experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions, according to the current U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s 12% more than a year ago.

Conversely, Griffith notes competition for declining calf supplies will add price support.

“It will not just be stocker producers and backgrounding operations competing for these animals. There will be feedlots looking to place calves on feed at lighter weights as they look to fill pens,” Griffith explains. “With the decline in feed prices and reduced availability of yearling cattle, feedlot managers will be looking for a way to fill the pens and keep them filled for a longer period of time.”

Cattle futures were mixed Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ lower, except for an average of 19¢ higher in the back three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ higher, except for an average of 66¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $299.80/cwt. Select was 28¢ lower at $268.78.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending Sept. 26 of 22,500 metric tons for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 68% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Thursday, likely pressured by producer selling and profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday as crude oil prices continued to climb on worries about disruptions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 184 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.93 to $3.57 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with expanding open interest from fund buying.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.00 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 36¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $299.81/cwt. Select was $1.37 lower at $283.93.

Grain futures closed higher Wednesday, led by wheat with weather and war premium.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 17¢ to 19¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed slightly higher Wednesday as investors digested the Middle East conflict and the U.S. port strike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 39 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.18 through the front six contracts. 

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Feed grain remains 18-24% lower than last year, allowing feedlots to continue holding cattle longer to increase fed weights, according to Hannah Baker, Extension beef cattle and forage economist at the University of Florida.

“Average steer dressed weights reached 925 pounds as of September 1, almost 3% heavier than year-ago levels and 4% higher than the historical average,” Baker explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The percentage of cattle grading Choice has also increased by 3.5% since last year and by 2% compared to the 2018-2022 average.”

Further, Baker notes that while current price trends are similar to those in 2015 during the same period, herd expansion had already begun.

“There was no incentive for prices to climb back up after the typical dip in the fall,” Baker explains. “In the current market, we have not seeing signs of stabilization, much less expansion, and have already hit record prices that we saw back in 2015. This indicates that while we are experiencing some seasonality this year, it is not expected that we are headed for a continuous low level of cattle prices.”

There was no afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.09 higher Tuesday afternoon at $300.17/cwt. Select was 77¢ higher at $285.30.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 31¢ higher, except for unchanged in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ lower, except for unchanged at either end of the board, pressured by another day of higher Corn futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally mixed.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday amid growing tensions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 173 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 278 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.06 to $2.59 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict. 

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Declining income expectations pushed the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to its lowest readings since March 2016. Farmer sentiment fell 12 points month to month to 88. The Index of Future Expectations dropped 14 points to 94. The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 76.

“The continued drop in the barometer reflects deepening concerns among farmers regarding expectations for farm income in 2024 and 2025,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “It’s notable that producer sentiment dropped back to levels last seen in 2016 when the U.S. farm economy was in the early stages of an economic downturn. In addition to commodity prices and input costs weighing heavily on their operations, producers are also facing considerable uncertainty about what lies ahead for their farms with the possible government policy changes following the upcoming 2024 elections.”

When asked to identify their top concerns for the coming year, low commodity prices and high input costs were nearly tied, with 34% of farmers citing input prices and 33% pointing to lower output prices as their primary concerns. Interest rates trailed behind as a top concern for 17% of respondents. Producers’ apprehensions about commodity prices matched up with their lack of confidence in the future of U.S. agricultural exports; only 26% of respondents expect exports to rise over the next five years, the most pessimistic response to this question since it was first introduced in 2019. Additionally, 78% of producers expressed concern that government policy changes following the fall 2024 elections could impact their farms.