WLI

Cattle futures gained Wednesday, supported by positive outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.05 lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.88/cwt. Select was 11¢ lower at $300.50/cwt.

Toward the close on Wednesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices maintained their strength Wednesday, supported one again by a tamer than expected inflation reading.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after declining 0.1% in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 242 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 4 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were slightly higher through the front six contracts.

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Calf numbers will be relatively tight this fall, and likely expensive, especially if there is wheat pasture to keep stocker demand strong, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Plus, Peel explains feedlot cost of gain has declined and will likely decline further, giving feedlots wider berth to compete for stocker cattle amid limited supplies.

“Feedlots are expected to place some feeder cattle that are lighter weight than usual as they attempt to maintain feedlot inventories. In the current market environment, prices across the spectrum of feeder cattle prices by weight generally suggest that stocker producers are increasingly relegated to the small end of feeder cattle. The basic signal is for stocker producers to purchase lighter cattle and turn them over more quickly,” Peel says. “In general, the market signals are to move limited feeder cattle supplies through the system more intensively to keep beef production as high as possible with fewer cattle. This does not mean that other stocker programs, e.g. owning cattle longer and putting on more weight, will not work but will require careful planning at the outset.”

Cattle futures gained Tuesday, supported by positive outside markets and firmer wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.43 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 higher Tuesday afternoon at $316.93/cwt. Select was 44¢ higher at $300.61/cwt.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by favorable weather and the outlook for high yields, in tandem with anemic export demand.

Toward the close on Tuesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 20¢ to 23¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Tuesday, supported by less wholesale price inflation than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 90 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 407 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 27¢ to 43¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were unable to extend gains from the previous session, apparently pressured once again, in part by demand concerns.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.79 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt. and mostly $2-$3 lower in Kansas at $185-$187, where live delivered prices were $190-$190.50. FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and mainly $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $193. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $305.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.11 lower at $191.34. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.59 lower at $304.01.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.12 higher Monday afternoon at $315.83/cwt. Select was $1.58 higher at $300.17/cwt.

Turning toward the close on Monday, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher with support from lower than expected carryover in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Through Jly ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 12¢ to 16¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mainly narrowly mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 140 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 35 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.71 to $2.82 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected five-area average direct fed steer prices for this year, based on recent demand for fed cattle that was stronger than expected. Compared to the previous month’s estimates, in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), ERS increased projected prices by $3 in the third quarter to $193/cwt. and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $190 for an annual average of $188.11, which was $1.25 higher.

This year’s beef production was projected 81 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.7 billion pounds, based on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights.

ERS projected fed steer prices next year at $188 in the first quarter and $190 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $191.

Beef production for 2025 was lowered by 20 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter. Next year’s projected total would be 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.8%) than this year’s projected total.

Other WASDE Highlights

The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for larger supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production for 2024/25 was forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from last month as a decline in harvested area of 700,000 acres was more than offset by increased yield. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast of 183.1 bushels per acre would be a record-high and was 2.1 bushels more than the previous month’s projection.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $4.20 per bushel.

Cattle futures closed higher with week-end positioning and positive outside markets but were lower week to week, unable to recover from the early-week meltdown.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.92 higher (77¢ to $3.12 higher). However, they were an average of about $2.44 lower week to week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.77 higher Friday but were an average of $6.22 lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $186-$193 in Kansas, where live delivered prices were $190-$190.50. FOB live prices were $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $190-$193. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Friday afternoon at $312.71/cwt. Select was 56¢ higher at $298.59/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures continued lower Friday ahead of Monday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates with many expecting increased yields.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to rebound Friday from the steep early-week selloff, buoyed by a positive employment reading.

Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims were less than expected at 233,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 51 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 85 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 47¢ to 65¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Beef continues to flex its muscle as consumers’ animal protein of choice, given demand at historically high retail prices.

“In June, the Choice retail price of beef was $8.12 per pound which was 2¢ lower than June 2023. The all-fresh retail price of beef was $8.00 per pound, which was 42¢ more than June 2023,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It is clear consumers want and demand beef, but competing meat prices also play a role in what consumers do.”

For instance, Griffith explains the retail pork price in June was 20¢ higher year over year at $4.88 per pound and the retail broiler price was 5¢ higher at $2.01 per pound.

“Given price relativity, the all-fresh retail price of beef is up 5.6% while the pork price only increased 4.2% over the same time period,” Griffith says. “Consumers will consider this price relativity when making purchasing decisions, but it is clear beef is the preferred meat protein.”