WLI

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday with pressure from lower cash fed cattle prices and softening wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.13 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.89 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to limited or light on moderate demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $186-$193 in Kansas. FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $193. Dressed delivered prices are $5 lower at $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.73 lower Thursday afternoon at $312.12/cwt. Select was 80¢ lower at $298.03/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were lower again Thursday with pressure from bullish production weather.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower through Jly ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Thursday, as investors continued adjusting to the early-week selloff.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 683 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 119 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 464 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 89¢ to 96¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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June exports of U.S. beef reached the highest value in nearly two years, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 110,155 metric tons (mt) in June, down 4% from a year ago but the second largest of 2024. Export value reached $938.3 million, up 3% year-over-year and the highest since August 2022. Through the first half of the year, beef export value climbed 5% from a year ago to $5.22 billion, despite a 4% decline in volume (643,733 mt).

“June beef exports performed very well in Japan, which was great to see given the significant headwinds U.S. beef has faced there this year,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Export value also rebounded nicely in Korea and shipments to Taiwan and Canada were outstanding. This made for another strong month in terms of export value per head slaughtered, which was nearly $460 in June.”

U.S. beef export value equated to $459.21 per head of fed slaughter in June, up 13% from a year ago. The January-June average of $418.37 per head was 6% more than the first half of 2023.

June U.S. pork exports totaled 224,392 mt, down 9% from a year ago and the lowest since September, while export value fell 5% to $659.7 million. However, January-June volume was 3% more than the first half of 2023, while export value increased 5% to $4.26 billion.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193/cwt. and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $193. There were a few trades in Kansas at $190.50 but too few to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188 in the Texas Panhandle and $188-$195 in Kansas. Dressed delivered prices were $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.96 lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.85/cwt. Select was 79¢ lower at $298.83/cwt.

Cattle futures continued to grind for support from the recent selloff Wednesday as early cash fed cattle prices eroded.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 30¢ higher, except for an average of 4¢ lower in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of 88¢ lower.

Grain and soybean futures closed lower Wednesday with pressure from promising yields. The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are due out Monday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ lower.    

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 234 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 40 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 171 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.51 to $2.27 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures tried for gains early in Tuesday’s session, in the wake of the recent selloff but ended mainly slightly lower.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 32¢ lower except for an average of 33¢ higher in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of 36¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher at the back.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill elsewhere through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $187-$195 in Kansas, $196 in Nebraska and $194-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value $2.13 lower Tuesday afternoon at $315.81/cwt. Select was 44¢ lower at $299.62.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 17¢ lower.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday amid a relief rally from steep declines during the last three sessions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 294 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 53 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 166 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment improved in July despite financial performance concerns, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index rose 8 points to 113, the Index of Current Conditions increased by 10 points to 100, and the Index of Future Expectations rose 7 points to 119 from a month earlier.

“Declines in crop prices point to lower producer incomes this year, so the increase in optimism was somewhat puzzling,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Fewer producers citing rising interest rates as a primary concern for the upcoming year corresponds with the modest improvement in their perspectives on capital investments, but respondents continue to express hesitancy to make large investments.”

High input costs remained the primary concern for a majority of respondents, followed by the risk of lower crop and livestock prices.

This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from July 15-19.

Cattle futures sank lower again Monday, tracing the selloff in outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.58 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of $6.57 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $188/cwt., $2 lower to $7 higher in Kansas at $188-$195, $2 lower in Nebraska at $196 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $194-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 76¢ lower last week at $194.45/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.74 lower at $309.60.

Wholesale beef prices did rebound Monday, with Choice boxed beef cutout value $4.17 higher in the afternoon at $317.94/cwt. Select was 85¢ higher at $282.34.

Grain and soybean futures extended gains Monday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 11¢ to 15¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower again Monday with continued recession fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,033 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 160 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 576 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 29¢ to 64¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite the smallest beef cow herd at the beginning of this year since 1961 and record cattle prices the last couple of years, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says there continues to be little indication of herd expansion.

“Beef cow slaughter is sharply lower, down nearly 16% year over year thus far in 2024,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “However, that level of beef cow slaughter, combined with the low beef replacement heifer inventory in 2024 implies that the beef cow herd continues to liquidate by another 0.5-1.0% in 2024. Beef cow slaughter would have to drop by roughly 22% year over year to avoid additional liquidation this year.”

Moreover, Peel notes beef replacement heifer inventories in recent years mean that there is no pipeline or momentum for herd expansion compared to previous expansions. He adds the threat of continuing or redeveloping drought is stalling rebuilding efforts.

“The beef cattle industry is smaller than needed and signals for rebuilding will continue and grow in coming months. However, herd rebuilding is likely to be slow to start and proceed quite slowly initially,” Peel says.

Cattle futures continued to carve a sharp path lower Friday, as equity markets unwound with growing concerns of recession.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.02 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed average of $4.15 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand to inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $188/cwt., $2 lower to $7 higher in Kansas at $188-$195, $2 lower in Nebraska at $196 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $194-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ higher Friday afternoon at $313.77/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $297.17/cwt.

Short covering on profit taking earlier in the week helped Grain and Soybean futures close higher Friday. Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices continued sharply lower amid recession fears.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 114,000 in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was significantly less than expected. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 8¢ in July to $35.07. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 494 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 100 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 417 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.79 to $2.81 lower through the front six contracts.

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Overall, domestic consumer beef demand remains strong, says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his latest weekly market comments.

“The late summer and early fall will give the market an idea if consumers are going to continue spending discretionary dollars on beef at the elevated retail price level,” Griffith says. “Some would argue consumers are slowing down, but where they are getting that data is lost on me. That is not to say the market will not slow down, but at this point, I cannot point to the data that says it is.”

On the other side of the gate, Griffith notes the leverage feedlots are using to keep negotiated cash fed cattle prices propped higher despite seasonal tendencies.

“There will continue to be downside price risk the next two or three months, but such risk is beginning to look less daunting as time passes,” Griffith says. “There have certainly been a few hiccups that may strike a chord of fear, but it will dissipate. Cattle feeders have leverage and will maintain leverage due to reduced cattle availability.”