WLI

Cattle futures eased higher Tuesday, helped along by more bullish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 28¢ higher, except for 25¢ lower in spot Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ higher, except for 12¢ lower in spot Nov and no trade in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the western Corn Belt to a standstill in other major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 30¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $317.21/cwt. Select was $1.92 lower at $285.24.

Grain and Soybean futures were stronger Tuesday with follow-through support from positive export sales.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures 2¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday with apparent investor optimism regarding the presidential election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 427 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 70 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 259 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 49¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment rose significantly and unexpectedly month to month in October based on the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index rose 27 points to 115, primarily driven by producers’ increased confidence in the future, with the Future Expectations Index jumping 30 points to 124. The Current Conditions Index also improved, reaching 95, but still reflected producers’ concerns that economic conditions this year are worse than last year and weaker than the barometer’s base period of 2015-16 during the early days of a multiyear downturn in the U.S. farm economy.

In October, only 53% of producers anticipated challenging times for the U.S. agricultural economy in the year ahead, a decrease from 73% in September. Similarly, concerns about the next five years eased, with just 33% of producers expecting tough times ahead, down from 48% the previous month. Additionally, fewer producers expect worsening financial conditions on their farms over the next 12 months, dropping to 23% in October from 38% in September.

“While producer sentiment improved in October, many respondents indicated they are still feeling financial strain due to the deterioration of their financial situation throughout 2024,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Over half of the producers we surveyed reported that their farm’s financial condition was worse than a year ago, which underscores the ongoing challenges producers face despite their more optimistic outlook for the year ahead.”

This month’s survey was conducted from Oct. 14 to Oct. 18.

Cattle futures were lower Monday with likely technical pressure and uncertainty ahead of the election.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 94¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. with dressed delivered prices at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was 23¢ lower at $189.82. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.93 lower at $296.97.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 34¢ higher Monday afternoon at $316.91/cwt. Select was $2.13 higher at $287.16.

Grain and Soybean futures were stronger Monday bolstered by positive export sales.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices gave back a lion’s share of previous-session gains as investors pulled their horns in ahead of Tuesday’s election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 257 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 59 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.78 to $2.14 higher through the front six contracts.

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Heavy rains in Oklahoma over the weekend revived hopes for late-season winter wheat grazing, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Based on the latest weekly Crop Progress report for the week ending Nov. 3, winter wheat planting was 12% less year over year in Oklahoma at 72%, which was 16% less than the five-year average. Emergence of 47% was 20% less than a year earlier and 26% less than average.

Nationwide, winter wheat planting of 87% lagged last year by 1% and the average by 2%. Emergence of 66% was 6% less than the same time last year and 5% less than the average. In terms of condition, 41% of the winter wheat crop was ranked as Good (35%) or Very Good (6%) versus 50% a year earlier. On the other side of the scale, 23% was rated as Poor (15%) or Very Poor (8%), compared to 17% a year earlier.

Corn and soybean harvest remained ahead of schedule with 91% of Corn harvested and 94% of soybeans in the bin.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 15¢ higher, except for an average of 54¢ lower on either end of the board. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.64 higher, supported by strong cash trade.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.11 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.77 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt. and steady in other regions at $190. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.26 lower Friday afternoon at $316.34/cwt. Select was 34¢ lower at $285.03. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $5.90 lower and Select was $10.05 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 615,000 head was 8,000 head fewer than the previous week and 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 26.4 million head was 1.0 million less (-3.8%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 22.3 billion pounds was 140.2 million pounds less (-0.6%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday with support from recent export sales but continued harvest pressure and uncertainty surrounding the impending election.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then unchanged to fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Friday despite significantly less job growth than expected.

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged month to month in October with just 12,000 more jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, strikes and hurricanes confounded the situation.

In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13¢ to $35.46. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 288 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 144 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 23¢ to 34¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Continued areas of dryness likely will delay market-relevant, nationwide beef cow herd expansion until at least the summer of 2026, says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Moreover, while market-reported dollar-per-cow returns in 2024 are slated to be attractive for many producers, when put on an inflation-adjusted basis, they have yet to exceed the memorable year of 2014,” Tonsor explains. “Likewise, when one moves beyond a dollars-per-cow approach to investment and decision-making framing around percentage returns (ROI, return-on-investment percentage), reflecting elevated capital necessary to operate, then attraction in expansion may be further tempered. While, on balance, I do envision heifer retention will occur nationally, starting in 2026 at the earliest, there indeed are multiple reasons ‘typical’ producers are being rational in not yet pulling the herd expansion trigger. Implications clearly follow for calf crop size and industry capacity utilization discussions to continue as well.”

Live Cattle futures were mixed Thursday and Feeder Cattle futures were lower with pressure from recently lower wholesale beef prices and month-end position squaring.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures ranged from an average of 12¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 50¢ higher, except for $4.60 higher in expiring Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 62¢ lower, except for 17¢ higher in new spot Nov and $1.02 higher in expiring Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in Nebraska to a standstill in the Texas Panhandle through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt. and steady in other regions at $190. Dressed delivered prices are steady to $2 lower at $296-$298 in Nebraska and $298 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.84 lower Thursday afternoon at $317.60/cwt. Select was $3.95 lower at $285.37.

Corn and Soybean futures received support from export sales Thursday. For the week ending Oct. 24, net U.S. corn export sales were 7% higher than the previous four-week average and net U.S. soybean sales were 39% more than the prior four-week average.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ lower, pressured by the wetter outlook for winter wheat areas of the country.

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Major U.S. financial indices took a strong step lower Thursday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 378 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 108 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 512 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.67-$1.92 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued to move lower Wednesday with weaker wholesale beef values and likely technical correction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.31 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.14 lower, except for 82¢ higher in expiring Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate, on moderate demand in the Western Corn Belt through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB Live prices were steady to $1 lower at $189-190/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were steady at $298 in a light test.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales at $190 in the Southern Plains.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190-$191/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $190 in Kansas and mostly $190 in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices were $298.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.17 lower Wednesday afternoon at $319.44/cwt. Select was 64¢ lower at $289.32.

Heading toward the close Wednesday, through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher on likely short covering. Corn futures fractionally mixed to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by less economic growth than expected. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 91 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 104 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 37¢ to 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Sept. 30 were 6% more than the previous month but 2% less than a year earlier, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were 1% higher month to month but slightly less year over year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 3% from the previous month but down 1% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were down 1% less than the prior month and 4% less than the same time last year.