WLI

Cattle futures were sharply lower Wednesday with pressure from lower cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values as traders eyed the monthly Cattle on Feed and semi-annul Cattle reports due to be published on Friday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.47 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.68 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on moderate demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Early dressed sales in Nebraska were $15 lower at $365/cwt. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $230-$232; prices last week were mostly $240.

Early FOB live prices in the western Corn Belt were $5-$10 lower at $230. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades at $365; prices last week were $370-$385.

Trade was mostly inactive on light demand in Kansas where FOB live prices last week were mostly $237-$238.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.41 lower Wednesday afternoon at $363.50. Select was $3.66 lower at $350.57.

Grain and Soybean futures rallied Wednesday, supported by higher Crude Oil prices, war premium and a negative weather outlook.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 9¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 16¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 27¢ to 30¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured in part by higher oil prices tied to escalated attacks between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 6 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 146 points.

Cattle futures finally found some footing Monday after about two weeks of consecutive down days, helped along by firming wholesale beef values and oversold conditions.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.28 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were mainly $10-$11 lower in Kansas at mostly $237-$238/cwt., $8 lower in Nebraska at $240 and mostly $8-$13 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $235-$240. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $10-$13 lower in Nebraska at mostly $380 and $8-$23 lower in the western Corn Belt at $370-$385.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $9.73 lower at $238.28. The weekly weighted dressed delivered fed steer price was $14.48 lower at $377.01.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.29 higher Monday afternoon at $370.10. Select was 16¢ higher at $355.45.

Corn and Soybean futures were higher Monday, with war premium and the hotter outlook in some portions of the Corn Belt.

Toward the close and through the front four contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 18¢ to 22¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower with likely profit taking.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday, pressured by higher oil prices tied to escalated attacks between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 307 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 12 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 7¢ lower to 68¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $235/cwt. Established trade for the week was $10-$11 lower at $237-$238.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $230-$235 and some dressed delivered trades at $365-$370. Established FOB live prices for the week were $8-$15 lower at $233-$240. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $393.

In Nebraska, trade was mostly inactive on light demand. Established FOB live trade for the week was mostly $8 lower at mainly $240 and dressed delivered prices were $10-$13 lower at mostly $380.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.57 lower Friday afternoon at $366.81. Select was 40¢ lower at $355.29. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed was $15.87 lower and Select was $13.94 lower.

Sharply lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices the last two weeks and eroding wholesale beef values continued to weigh on Cattle futures Friday.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.88 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.57 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $9.16 lower. That’s an average of $13.28 lower over the last two weeks. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $13.61 lower. That’s an average of $21.63 lower over the last two weeks.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, buoyed by war premium tied to the Black Sea trade disruptions stemming from the war between Russia and Ukraine, higher oil prices tied to the U.S.-Iran war and perhaps some added weather premium.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 9¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. They were an average of 7’2¢ higher through the front six contracts, week to week on Friday.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by tech and chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 406 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 76 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 361 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were an average of $2.80 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Choice retail beef prices were 10¢ higher month to month in June at $10.45 per pound, according to the latest USDA data. Year over year, the Choice retail beef price was $1.18 higher (12.7%). Likewise, the all-fresh retail beef price was 12¢ higher month to month and $1.01 higher year over year (11.7%) at $9.64 per pound.

“June’s All-Fresh retail beef price was the third highest on record behind $10.00 per pound in April and $9.69 per pound in February of this year,” according to analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) in the July 17 Livestock Monitor. “USDA-ERS reported June’s retail beef steak price at $12.88 per pound, an increase of $1.39 per pound (+12%) from last year and the second highest price on record behind $13.02 per pound in April 2026. Roasts increased $1.23 per pound (+15%) to a record of $9.43 per pound in June, surpassing the prior record of $9.41 per pound in April 2026. For the last three months, retail ground beef prices exceeded the $7 per pound mark. June was a record at $7.14 per pound, up $0.80 per pound (+13%) from last year.”

By way of comparison, LMIC analysts explain

June’s retail pork price of $4.92 per pound was down fractionally year over year. The June broiler composite retail price was 2% less than a year earlier at $2.38 per pound, the lowest since February 2024.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $10-$11 lower at $237-$238/cwt.

Trade in the North ranged from limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to inactive on light to moderate demand in Nebraska, with too few transactions to trend. So far this week, FOB live prices are mostly $8 lower at mainly $240 and dressed delivered prices in Nebraska are $10-$13 lower at mostly $380. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $393.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.90 lower Thursday afternoon at $368.38/cwt. Select was $3.49 lower at $355.69.

Traders continued long liquidation in Cattle futures on Thursday as negotiated cash fed cattle prices took another steep step lower this week and wholesale beef values continue lower. Apparently, packers have regained some leverage now, while strong basis encourages sellers.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.29 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.94 lower.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely profit taking from the previous session’s gains and perhaps increased farmer selling.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher, except for fractionally lower to 3¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 6¢ lower. 

Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 105 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 38 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 387 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 34¢ to 84¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service raised the forecast third-quarter feeder steer price by $2, compared to the previous month, to $380/cwt., in the July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices were unchanged for the fourth quarter at $382, while the projected annual average price increased about $1 to $376.26. The price is a basis a Medium and large #1 steer weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma National Stockyards.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, compared to the previous month, the ERS increased the third-quarter weighted average five-area direct fed steer by $3 to $255/cwt. in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The projected fourth-quarter price was unchanged at $255, while the forecast annual average price was slightly higher at $251.10.

That was with beef production this year estimated 150 million pounds lower (-0.6%) than the previous month at 25.3 billion pounds, which would be 715 million pounds less than last year (-2.7%).

Looking at potential herd expansion, ERS analysts say heifer and cow retention in several areas could be in focus as pasture conditions are generally weaker than last year and are similar to levels seen during previous droughts that increased beef cow slaughter.

Based on data from the U.S. Drought Monitor on July 7, they explain approximately 46% of the cattle inventory was in an area experiencing at least moderate drought compared to just 16% last year. “Although extreme and exceptional levels of drought are not as widespread as in past years’ droughts, several large cattle producing regions are receiving the brunt of the drought,” they say.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Early FBO live trades were mostly $8 lower at mainly $240/cwt. Dressed delivered sales so far this week are $10-$13 lower at mostly $380.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $238-$240 and some in the beef at $375. Last week, FOB live trades were $248 and dressed delivered prices were mostly $393.

Trade was mostly inactive on light demand in Kansas, where FOB live prices were $248 last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.67 lower Wednesday afternoon at $371.28/cwt. Select was $5.23 lower at $359.18.

Cattle futures stepped mainly lower Wednesday with lower Choice wholesale beef values and another steep decrease in cash fed cattle prices so far this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.11 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.05 lower, except for $1.90 and 10¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Wheat futures screamed higher Wednesday, bolstered by supply chain disruptions tied to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Toward the close and through near Mar contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly 41¢ to 44¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, once again supported by a tamer inflation reading than expected.

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3% in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 5.5% for the 12 months ended in June. A day earlier, the BLS reported that the all items Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4% month to month in June on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 150 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 28 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 162 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 89¢ to $1.14 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Although the cattle inventory at the beginning of 2026 was lower year over year, Will Secor, Extension livestock economist at the University of Georgia notes the inventory of cattle on feed has grown with the June 1 inventory the most for the month since 2022.

Even so, Secor explains fed steer slaughter was down 7.8% year over year through the last week of June and fed heifer slaughter was down 11.6% — combined for 9.3% less, due in part to more days on feed. He adds that total cow slaughter was down 5.9% — 16.3% less beef cow slaughter but 3.9% more for dairy cows.

“Margins remain tight at the feedlot and processor level, which may limit opportunities to process additional cattle,” Secor says in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Consumer beef demand has been strong, but indications of growing consumer headwinds could weigh on the sector going forward. All of these dynamics indicate that this is an important area to watch in the coming months.”