WLI

Cattle futures continued to unwind Tuesday with sharply lower Choice wholesale beef values so far this week and last week’s drop in negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.47 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.59 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in Kansas to limited on light tomoderate demand in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $380/cwt. and at $385 in the western Corn Belt.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $248/cwt. in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $393 in the western Corn Belt and $390-$393 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.66 lower Tuesday afternoon at 373.95/cwt. Select was 76¢ lower at $364.41. Choice was $8.73 lower in the last two days.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with improved crop ratings (see below) and a more favorable weather outlook.

Toward the close and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 11¢ higher with added premium on Russian export disruptions stemming from the war between the Ukraine and Russia.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, helped by a tamer inflation reading than expected.

The all items Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4% month to month in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 28 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 233 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 11¢ to $1.92 higher through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions eroded last week, according to USDAs Crop Progress report for the week ending July 12. Nationwide, 30% was rated as Good (25%) or Excellent (5%), compared to 33% the previous week and 46% the prior year. On the other end of the scale, 40% was in Poor (22%) or Very Poor condition (18%), which was 12% more than the same time last year.

States with 40% or more pasture and range ranked as Poor or Very Poor included: Arizona (74%), Colorado (69%), Montana (50%); Nebraska (62%), New Mexico (64%), North Carolina (58%), Oregon (46%), South Dakota (40%); Virginia (42%), West Virginia (63%) and Wyoming (64%).

Winter wheat harvest was 67% completed, which was 5% more than the same time last year and 6% more than the five-year average.

Corn condition improved week to week with 68% in Good (53%) or Excellent (15%) condition, compared to 67% a week earlier and 74% a year earlier; 8% was rated as Poor (6%) or Very Poor (2%), which was the same as the previous week but 3% more than a year earlier.

Similarly, 65% of soybeans were rated in Good (53%) or Excellent (12%) condition, which was 1% more than the previous week and 5% less than the prior year; 8% was rated as Poor (6%) or Very Poor (2%), the same as the previous week but 3% more than a year earlier.

Cattle futures softened further Friday with week’s lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.04 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.63 lower.

From Monday through Friday last week, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.12 lower, and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.02 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the South to light on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were mostly $7 lower in all regions at mainly $248/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $10 lower at $393.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.87 higher Friday afternoon at $382.68/cwt. Select was $4.84 higher at 368.33. For the week, Choice was $3.80 lower and Select was $2.46 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 529,000 head was 71,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week, but 43,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 14.3 million head was 1.3 million head fewer (-8.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 12.8 billion pounds was 800.5 million pounds less (-5.9%) than the same time a year earlier.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Friday with a mix of reaction to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and geopolitical factors.

Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 10¢ higher through Jly ’27 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher, helped by lower global production estimates than expected. 

Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 16¢ higher through Jan ’27 and then fractionally higher to 7¢ higher with lower ending stock projections than expected and continued Chinese buying.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly 19¢ to 22¢ higher on Russian export disruptions stemming from the war between the Ukraine and Russia.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Friday, once again supported by tech stocks and lower Crude Oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 149 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 74 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 11¢ to 67¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Compared to the previous month, USDA’s Economic Research Service increased the third-quarter weighted average five-area direct fed steer price by $3 to $255/cwt. in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).  The projected fourth-quarter price was unchanged at $255, while the forecast annual average price was slightly higher at $251.10.

That was with beef production this year estimated 150 million pounds less (-0.6%) than the previous month at 25.3 billion pounds, which would be 715 million pounds less than last year (-2.7%).

“Beef production is lowered due to a slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year,” ERS analysts say. “The decrease in steer and heifer slaughter more than offsets an increase in cow slaughter. Dressed weights are also lowered in the second and third quarter.”

Projected fed steer prices for next year were unchanged at $250 in the first quarter and $254 for the annual average price in 2027.

“For 2027, beef production is lowered, as decreased feedlot placements in 2026 and a slower pace of marketings reduce total steer and heifer slaughter,” ERS analysts explain.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook was for smaller supplies, greater exports, and reduced ending stocks. Corn production for 2026/27 was up fractionally based on updated planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield was unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre. The season-average farm price received by producers was unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. 2026/27 U.S. soybean production was projected to be 40 million bushels more at 4.475 billion bushels, on higher harvested area. Harvested area, projected at 84.4 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, was up 0.7 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast was unchanged at 53.0 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies for 2026/27 were raised 30 million bushels as higher production was partly offset by lower beginning stocks.

Prices were unchanged for 2026/27. The U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast at $11.40 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices were projected at $310 per short ton and 70¢ per pound, respectively.

Wheat

The outlook for 2026/27 U.S. wheat was for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies were reduced 22 million bushels on lower beginning stocks and production. Production was forecast at 1,536 million bushels, down 7 million from last month. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat production since 1970/71. Projected 2026/27 ending stocks were reduced 22 million bushels to 722 million and would be 22% less than last year. The projected 2026/27 season-average farm price (SAFP) was unchanged at $6.00 per bushel, compared to last year’s final SAFP of $5.06.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $7-$8 lower at $248/cwt. and dressed delivered prices were $10 lower at $393.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in Kansas and the western Corn Belt. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Kansas at $247-$248 and at $248 in the western Corn Belt where early dressed delivered prices were $393.

Last week, FOB live prices were $255/cwt. in Kansas and mostly $255 in the western Corn Belt where dressed delivered prices were mostly $403.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 39¢lower Thursday afternoon at $380.81/cwt. Select was 40¢ higher at $363.49.

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday, pressure by the decline in cash fed cattle prices and likely technical selling.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.25 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.09 lower.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with follow-through selling pressure and positioning ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 16¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ higher with likely short covering.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, supported by tech stocks and lower Crude Oil prices, with heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran lurking in the background.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 139 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 60 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 336 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.17 to $1.75 lower through the front six contracts.

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The current El Niño strengthened during the past month and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027, according to the latest El Niño Advisory from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950,” forecasters say. “Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes.”

Cattle futures were mixed on Wednesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 65¢ lower, pressured in part by weakening post-holiday wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.14 higher, except for an average of 72¢ lower in three contracts with support from the cash market.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in Kansas and in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $255/cwt. in Kansas, $255-$256 in Nebraska and mostly $255 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $403. The previous week, FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle were $258.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.57 lower Wednesday afternoon at $381.20/cwt. Select was $2.80 lower at $363.09.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with profit taking from the recent surge higher.

Toward the close and through near Mar contracts Corn futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower.  Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 9¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly 9¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, with resurgent Crude Oil prices and elevated tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 576 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 21 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 51 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.70 to $4.14 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports show signs of strengthening, based on data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

May beef exports totaled 91,925 metric tons (mt), down 5% from a year ago. However, value increased 2% to $818.1 million, bolstered by value increases in Taiwan, Japan, the ASEAN region, Central and South America and Egypt.

Export value per head of fed slaughter soared to $468 in May, the highest in nearly four years. Despite China’s mid-May renewal of expired U.S. beef plant registrations, May exports to China remained minimal as technical obstacles are yet to be resolved.

For January through May, beef exports were 10% below last year’s pace at 457,063 mt, while value fell 5% to $3.95 billion. When excluding China from these results, January-May beef exports were down less than 1% in volume and were 6% higher in value.

“Despite significant headwinds, we are seeing some encouraging trends on the beef side,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “Many facilities remain suspended and unable to export to China, while exporters overall remain reluctant to ship until technical obstacles are resolved and China agrees to meet its Phase One Agreement commitments. But Taiwan has been a major bright spot this year, and while exports to South Korea have trended lower, we expect an uptick in Korea’s demand when a higher tariff rate on Australian beef is triggered later this month.”

By mid-July, Korea’s imports of Australian beef are expected to exceed the safeguard threshold established in the Korea-Australia FTA. Through the end of the year, Korea’s tariff rate on Australian beef will increase from 5.3% to 24%. U.S. beef enters Korea at zero duty under the Korea-U.S. FTA. Australia triggered its beef safeguard for China on June 18 and has since faced a 55% tariff for exports entering that market.

Turning to pork, May exports were higher year-over-year, but volumes were significantly diminished by Mexico’s restrictions on pork offal items.

Pork exports totaled 245,874 metric tons (mt) in May, up 10% from a year ago, with value up 8% to $701 million. But exports in May 2025 were unusually low due to heightened trade tensions with China, which temporarily pushed China’s tariff rate on U.S. pork as high as 172%.

Cattle futures were lower Tuesday, led by Feeder Cattle.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 32¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.62 lower, except for 35¢ higher in spot Aug.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in Kansas and in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $255/cwt. in Kansas, $255-$256 in Nebraska and mostly $255 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $403. The previous week, FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle were $258.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $385.77/cwt. Select was 2¢ higher at $365.89.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Tuesday with follow-through support.

Toward the close and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 18¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, amid resurgent Crude Oil prices and another round of selling chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 33 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 302 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.98 to $3.68 higher through the front six contracts, on renewed Iranian attacks on the Strait of Hormuz.

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Agricultural producer sentiment eroded last month, based on the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index declined 6 points month to month to 113. The Current Conditions Index fell to an 18-month low of 102, while the Future Expectations Index declined 7 points.

High input costs remained producers’ top concern, with 47% identifying them as the biggest challenge facing their operation, followed by low crop and livestock prices at 23%. A related question revealed that 42% of respondents feel high input costs are limiting improvements in their financial position this year. The survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from June 15-19.

“While high input costs remain the primary constraint on farm financial performance, producers are continuing to make decisions in a broader environment shaped by technology adoption, trade expectations and long-term land value outlook,” according to Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Additional survey results illustrated the financial challenges facing producers. Just 12% of respondents said their farms were better off financially than a year ago, while only 22% expected their operations to improve over the next 12 months. Reflecting that cautious outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index has continued its fall from the March 2026 survey to 40, its lowest level since September 2024.

When asked what was limiting improvement in their farm’s financial situation, 42% of respondents cited high input costs, while 17% specified low output prices. Weather risk (14%), policy uncertainty (11%), labor and equipment concerns (9%), and debt or financial pressure (8%) rounded out the remaining responses.

The latest survey included two questions about the use of artificial intelligence and other data-driven tools in agriculture. When asked about potential benefits, 23% of respondents cited increased production as the primary advantage, 14% cited reduced labor needs, and 11% cited reduced risk or uncertainty. However, a majority of respondents (52%) said they did not see a meaningful benefit from these tools.