WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $7-$8 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $245-$246/cwt., mostly $8 higher in Kansas at mainly $246 and $10 higher in the North at $245. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $13 higher at mainly $385.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.30 lower Tuesday afternoon at $382.74/cwt. Select was $2.04 lower at $386.33.

Cattle futures pulled back Tuesday with pressure from iffy outside markets, declining wholesale beef values and likely profit taking.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.14 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.88 lower.

Corn and Soybeans trended lower Tuesday on increased risk aversion based on President Trump’s escalating threats against Iran.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Corn futures were 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Tuesday after pressure during most of the session tied to wonderment about a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 85 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 21 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 17¢ higher to $1.15 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Longer-term optimism helped boost agricultural producer sentiment in March, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index increased 11 points from the previous month to 127. The Futures Expectations Index rose 14 points but remains lower year over year. The Current Conditions Index increased 6 points. The survey was conducted March 16-20.

“While producers are feeling more optimistic about the future, there’s still a noticeable gap between short-term challenges and long-term confidence,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Longer-term optimism is supported by stronger expectations for farmland values and the broader economy, though livestock producers remain notably more optimistic than crop producers.”

Producers reported mixed financial conditions in March, with 18% indicating their operations were better off than a year ago. Expectations for the year ahead continue to be cautiously optimistic, with 20% of respondents anticipating improved financial performance, compared with 18% expecting worse financial performance over the next 12 months. The Farm Capital Investment Index edged up 3 points to 53, but plans to expand machinery purchases remain limited, with only 4% of producers planning increases.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, however, FOB live prices were mostly $245/cwt., which was $7 higher in the Southern Plains and $10 higher in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $13 higher at mainly $385.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 533,000 head was 10,000 head more than the previous week but 53,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 7.1 million head was 796,000 head fewer (-10.1%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date production of 6.3 billion pounds was 521.4 million pounds less (-7.6%).

Higher cash fed cattle prices came in the face of sluggish wholesale beef values. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 lower Friday afternoon at $387.78/cwt. Select was $1.51 lower at $386.19. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $5.19 lower and Select was $3.68 lower.

Futures markets were closed Friday, in observance of Good Friday. For the week, though, Cattle futures were sharply higher.

Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $7.92 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $17.30 higher. During the same period, Corn futures closed 13’3¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Equity markets were also closed Friday.

Although major U.S. financial indices gained on the week, uncertainty related to the U.S. war with Iran and sharply higher nearby crude oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Crude Oil futures (WTI-CME) closed an average of $8.45 higher in the front three contracts week to week on Thursday and then an average of $4.41 lower in the next three contracts.

An economic bright spot heading into this week was a more positive labor outlook than expected. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 9¢ to $37.38. Average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5% over the last 12 months.

******************************

U.S. beef exports totaled 85,066 metric tons (mt) in February, which was 13% less year over year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Value fell 10% to $722.7 million. Much of the shortfall stemmed from China’s lockout of U.S. beef. Exports were also below last year to Korea, Japan and Canada. However, exports increased year-over-year to Mexico, Taiwan, the Caribbean and South America, while demand was steady in the Middle East and Central America. Excluding China, February exports were 4% higher in value and just 1% below last year’s volume.

Exports of beef variety meats were a bright spot. The 24,081 mt of beef variety meat in February were 12% more than a year earlier, while the value of these shipments soared 40% to $106 million.

“Beef variety meat exports continue to trend higher, especially on the value side, and that makes such an important contribution to the value of every animal,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “Where U.S. beef has access, muscle cut demand has held up well and provides a great complement to our robust domestic market. But for beef variety meats, export markets are really the whole ball game, so it’s great to see these products achieve broad-based growth.”

Beef export value equated to $422.87 per head of fed slaughter in February, down 2% from a year ago but the highest in 11 months. The January-February per-head average was $418.83, up 5% from a year earlier.

February U.S. pork exports totaled 242,511 mt, up 1% from a year ago, with export value edging 1% higher to $678.8 million.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices took a strong step higher Thursday with moderate trade on moderate to good demand in the North, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were mainly $10 higher at mainly $245/cwt. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $13 higher at $385. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt at $380 to $385, compared to $372 the previous week.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the Southern Plains. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early FOB live prices at $245, which was $7 more than last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.84 lower Thursday afternoon at $389.58/cwt. Select was $4.89 lower at $387.70.

Cattle futures shrugged off volatile outside markets and continued to rise Thursday, helped along by the positive cash market.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.27 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.60 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were narrowly mixed.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices were sharply lower Thursday in response to rising crude oil prices and President Trump’s remarks that the war with Iran could escalate. By the end of the day, though, indices were little changed on various reports that Iran was working with Oman on a plan that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 61 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 38 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 88¢ to $11.55 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Cattle prices peak this year and then decline through 2035 as the U.S. beef cow herd rebuilds, according to baseline projections in the recent U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.

FAPRI projects the beef cow herd growing from 27.6 million head at the beginning of this year to 31.2 million head in 2032 before declining to 30.4 million head by 2035.

As for prices, the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price declines throughout the projection period from a peak of $234.94/cwt. this year to $196.59 in 2030 and then $159.22 by 2034.

Likewise, prices for feeder steers weighing 600-650 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City are projected to decline from a peak average of $382.89/cwt. this year to $302.12 in 2030 Ann unlimited to $237.17 in 2035.

As a backdrop, FAPRI estimate real GDP growth in the U.S. at 2.3% this year and then ranging between 1.7% and 1.9% for the remainder of the projection period. Real global GDP estimates are 2.7% this year and then ranging between 2.6% and 2.8%.

Cattle futures continued to gain Wednesday, helped by positive outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 50¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.05 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $238/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $235 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $372.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.07 lower Wednesday afternoon at $394.42/cwt. Select was 34¢ lower at $392.59.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday on retreating Crude Oil prices and reduced risk premium.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 19¢ to 22¢ lower. Corn futures were 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower through near Nov.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices rose Wednesday amid increasing optimism for an end to the U.S. war with Iran.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 224 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 46 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 250 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.43 to $3.26 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued higher Tuesday, supported by more bullish outside markets and resurgent wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.02 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.46 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $238/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $235 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $372.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.39 higher Tuesday afternoon at $395.49/cwt. Select was $1.92 higher at $392.93.

USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports helped lift Grain and Soybean futures on Tuesday.

Toward the close, and through near Dec contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 10¢ higher, buoyed by estimated record-low planted acres in USDA’s Prospective Plantings report (see below).

Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 2¢ higher on lower stocks than expected, and despite more prospective planted acres than anticipated.

Soybean futures were 12¢ to 13¢ higher through near Nov, supported by fewer planted acres than expected.  

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Tuesday on various reports suggesting the U.S. war with Iran could be nearing an end.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,125 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 184 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 795 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 99¢ to $4.34 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA estimated 95.3 million corn acres this year in its Prospective Plantings report. That would be 3.45 million acres less (-3.5%) than last year, but more than average trade guesses and 1.45 million acres more than USDA’s initial projections at last month’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.

The projected 84.7 million soybean acres would be 3.46 million acres more (4.3%) than last year, but less than trade estimates ahead of the report.

USDA projected all-wheat acres at 43.78 million acres, which would be 1.55 million fewer acres (-3.4%) than last year and record-low since the data series began in 1919. Winter wheat acres were projected 743,000 acres less (-2.2%) than last year at 32.4 million.

Projected all-hay harvested area of 50.1 million acres would be 556,000 acres (1.1%) more year over year.

USDA also issued its quarterly Grain Stocks report on Tuesday.

Corn stocks in all positions March 1 totaled 9.02 billion bu., up 11% from a year earlier. On-farm stocks of 5.43 billion bu. were 21% more year over year, while off-farm stocks of 3.59 bu. were 2% less.

Soybeans stored in all positions March 1 of 2.10 billion bushels were 10% more than a year earlier. Soybean stocks stored on farms were estimated 3% more at 900 million bu. Off-farm stocks of 1.20 billion bushels were 16% more than last March.

All wheat stored in all positions March 1 totaled 1.30 billion bu., up 5% from a year ago. On-farm stocks were estimated at 298 million bu., down 3% from last March. Off-farm stocks, of 1.00 billion bu. were 8% more than a year earlier.