WLI

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed on Monday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ higher, despite last week’s lower cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 37¢ lower, except for an average of 33¢ higher in two contracts, with recent cash pressure and higher grain futures prices.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in Kansas and in the North through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3 lower in Kansas at $255/cwt., $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at mostly $255-$256 and mainly $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $255. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $5 lower at $403. The previous week, FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle were $258.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $4.22 lower at $255.12/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.38 lower at $402.47.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ lower Monday afternoon at $386.48/cwt. Select was $1.56 lower at $365.87.

Keeping in mind the holiday, total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 458,000 head was 79,000 head fewer than the previous week, and 16,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 13.8 million head was 1.3 million head fewer (-8.5%). Year-to-date estimated beef production of 12.3 billion pounds was 771.2 million pounds less (-5.9%).

Soybean futures roared higher Monday with reports China will reduce tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports, including soybeans. Corn and Wheat futures followed along, also supported by a drier weather outlook.

Toward the close and through near Mar contracts Corn futures were mostly 15¢ to 16¢ higher. Soybean futures were 38¢ to 48¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, buoyed by a rebound in chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 155 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 54 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 288 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 2¢ lower to 23¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Pasture and range conditions eroded slightly last week, according to USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ending July 5. Nationwide, 33% was rated as Good (27%) or Excellent (6%), compared to 34% the previous week and 45% the prior year. On the other end of the scale, 36% was in Poor (21%) or Very Poor condition (15%), which was 9% more than the same time last year.

Winter wheat harvest was 59% completed, which was 8% more than the same time last year and the five-year average. In terms of condition, 26% was rated Good (22%) or Excellent (4%), compared to 48% at the same time last year. Conversely, 47% was rated as Poor (27%) or Very Poor (20%), which was 29% more year over year.

Corn condition held steady week to week with 67% in Good (53%) or Excellent (14%) condition, compared to 74% a year earlier; 8% was rated as Poor (6%) or Very Poor (2%), which was 3% more than a year earlier.

Similarly, 64% of soybeans were rated in Good (53%) or Excellent (11%) condition, which was 1% less than the previous week and 2% less than the prior year; 8% was rated as Poor (6%) or Very Poor (2%), compared to 7% a year earlier.

Equity and futures markets were closed Friday in observance of Independence Day.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from active on good demand in Kansas to light on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3 lower in Kansas at $255/cwt., $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $255-$256 and $4-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $255-$256. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $5 lower at $403. The previous week, FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle were $258.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.19 lower Thursday afternoon at $387.07/cwt. Select was $2.26 lower at $367.43. Week to week on Thursday, Choice was $6.55 lower and Select was $7.31 lower. Choice was about $10 lower over the past two weeks.

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday with weaker negotiated cash fed cattle prices and softer wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.24 lower and Feeder Cattle futures down an average of $3.43.

Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $5.75 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $12.15 lower.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Thursday with profit taking ahead of the holiday weekend.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower, except for fractionally higher to 2¢ higher in the front two contracts. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ lower, except for fractionally higher to 5¢ higher in the front three contracts. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Thursday. Tech stocks tied to chips applied pressure. On the other hand, a more bearish jobs report than expected provided support with investors thinking it might keep the Fed from raising interest rates.

Non-farm payroll employment grew by 57,000 month to month and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13¢ in June to $37.64. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 594 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was down 207 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 11¢ to 26¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Calf and feeder cattle price trends were hard to come by during the holiday-shorted week with many auctions closed. However, the CME Feeder Cattle Index was $10.61 lower week to week on Thursday at $371.25/cwt.

Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, points out the Feeder Cattle Index was as high as $381.86 June 24, gaining more than $10 in eight days. With last week’s decline, the Index was still about $10 higher than spot Aug Feeder Cattle futures.

“This means the actual participants in the cattle market think cattle are more valuable than those trading futures contracts, as the futures contract price is dominated by traders and not hedgers,” Griffith says. “The benefit of this positive basis is for those who are physically marketing cattle. Producers selling cattle today are being paid more than the futures market is suggesting they will be worth in the future.”  

Conversely, Griffith explains the same fact makes managing price risk challenging for producers to utilize futures, options and LRP to manage price risk on cattle they intend to market days and weeks from today.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday with traders awaiting more negotiated cash fed direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 29¢ higher, except for an average of 39¢ lower in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 29¢ lower through the front half of the board to an average of 43¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Early dressed delivered trades were $5 lower at $403/cwt. Last week, FOB live prices in the region were $258-$260.

Elsewhere, trade remained unestablished.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258 in the Southern Plains and mostly $260 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $408.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.90 lower Wednesday afternoon at $391.26/cwt. Select was $1.99 lower at $369.69.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday with follow-through support from USDA’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 7¢ to 9¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 9¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, with renewed pressure in chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 13 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 173 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 47¢ to $1.50 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued lower Tuesday with month-end and quarter-end positioning.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ lower, except for 80¢ higher in spot Jun and 2¢ higher at the back. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.29 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $260 in the western Corn Belt and $258-$260 in Nebraska. Dressed delivered prices were $408.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.72 higher Tuesday afternoon at $393.16/cwt. Select was $2.50 lower at $371.68.

Despite some mixed signals, Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday with support from USDA’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports (see below).

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were mostly 4¢ to 8¢ higher with lower stocks than expected. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, with follow-through optimism tied to the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, as well as a rebound in chip stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 136 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 393 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 26¢ to 60¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports raised some eyebrows Tuesday.

Corn planted area for all purposes was estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from last year but even with March estimates. This represents the fourth highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944. Corn stocks in all positions on June 1 totaled 5.29 billion bushels, up 14% year over year but less than anticipated ahead of the report.

Of the total stocks, 2.96 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 16% from a year earlier.

Soybean planted area for 2026 was estimated at 85.4 million acres, up 5% from last year and 700,000 acres more than March estimates. Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1 totaled 1.06 billion bushels, up 5% year over year. On-farm stocks totaled 367 million bushels, down 11% from a year earlier.

All wheat planted area for 2026 was estimated at 42.7 million acres, down 6% from 2025 and 1.1 million acres less than March estimates. The 2026 winter wheat planted area of 31.5 million acres was 5% less than last year and down 3% from the previous estimate. Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1 totaled 920 million bushels, up 8% from a year ago. On-farm stocks were estimated at 177 million bushels, down 4% from last year.

All harvested hay area of 49.8 million acres was 230,000 acres more (0.5%) than the previous year.

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Cattle futures closed lower again Monday with likely continued profit taking and positioning ahead of month-end and quarter-end.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.49 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.16 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $258/cwt. in the Southern Plains, which was steady to $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle and $2 lower in Kansas. FOB live prices were steady in the western Corn Belt at mostly $260 and steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $258-$260. Dressed delivered prices were $408, which was steady in Nebraska and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was 29¢ lower at $259.34/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 75¢ higher at $407.75.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Monday with follow-through pressure from positive weather, month- and quarter-end, as well as positioning ahead of Tuesday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

Toward the close, and through near Mar contracts, Corn futures were 12¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were 16¢ to 19¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, supported of new optimism regarding the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 306 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 86 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 522 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.01 to $1.32 higher through the front six contracts.

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Although feedlot inventories in June were 2.1% less year over year, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out it reflects marketings decreasing more than placements.

“In the past 12 months, feedlot placements have decreased 6.1% while feedlot marketings have decreased 7.8%, Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Decreased feedlot flows (placements and marketings) follow from ever tighter feeder cattle supplies. The 2025 calf crop was the eighth consecutive smaller calf crop and was the smallest in 84 years. The resulting slowdown in feedlot production, while maintaining feedlot inventories, is accomplished by an increase in average feedlot days on feed and heavier final weights for fed cattle. The Kansas Focus on Feedlots data shows average of 188 days on feed for the last year, with recent months up to 198 days.  Final fed steer weights in Kansas feedlots have increased 105 pounds in the past 18 months, currently averaging 1,523 pounds.”

Reduced feedlot flow leads to less fed cattle slaughter. Through the first half of this year, Peel explains fed cattle (steer and heifer) slaughter was 8.7% less year over year.

“Decreased fed cattle slaughter is partially offset by increased carcass weights,” Peel says. “Steer carcass weights are currently 968 pounds. Steer carcass weights have averaged 35 pounds heavier thus far in 2026. Heifer carcass weights are currently 884 pounds and are averaging 26.6 pounds more than one year ago.” He adds cow slaughter is 5.3% less so far this year, leading to an 8.1% decline in total cattle slaughter.

Total beef production is down 5.5% year over year through the first half of 2026, according to Peel with average fed beef production the lowest since 2017 and non-fed beef production the lowest since 2006. 

“Average monthly commercial beef production is at the lowest level since late 2016,” Peel says. “Total beef production is projected to be down 4.5-5.0% in 2026, compared to last year, and is expected to decrease again in 2027 to the lowest beef production since 2015.”

Listen to more of Peel’s insights here.