WLI

Cattle futures softened Tuesday, awaiting the week’s cash direction and perhaps with some profit taking. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.52 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on final established trade last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains $195-$198 in Nebraska and $193-$195 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 5¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $320.52/cwt. Select was 61¢ lower at $304.21/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed Tuesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher with likely technical correction. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed were 10¢ to 16¢ higher in the front two contracts and then marginally higher through new-crop.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed but to the upside Tuesday with continued support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 5 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.05 to $1.06 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left projected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) unchanged, compared to the previous month, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, except for $1 lower in the second and fourth quarters. Average prices are forecast to be $254/cwt. in the second quarter, and $263 in the third and fourth quarters. The annual average price estimate was reduced 50¢ to $254.96. Next year’s annual average price was projected at $258.50 with the first-quarter price at $247.

“Demand for feeder cattle remains steady, supported in part by improved forage and pasture conditions from a year ago across most of the country,” say ERS analysts. “This has enabled cattle to go on grass rather than into

feedlots, particularly as feedlots are limiting placements in response to high feeder prices.”

As reported in Cattle Current last week, ERS raised the expected average five-area direct fed steer price for most of the remainder of the year, in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, prices were projected $2 higher in the second quarter at $186/cwt. and $1 higher in the third quarter at $183, but $1 lower in the fourth quarter at $186. The forecast annual price for this year increased 50¢ to $184.01. ERS also raised the expected first-quarter price and the 2025 annual average price by $1 to $186 and $189, respectively.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on final established trade last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $5-$8 higher in Nebraska at $195-$198 and mainly $2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $193-$195. Dressed delivered prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.63 higher at $192.55. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.76 higher at $305.47.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ higher Monday afternoon at $320.47/cwt. Select was $1.01 higher at $304.82/cwt.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Monday with likely profit taking following the previous session’s surge.

Turning to row crops, Grain and soybean futures dropped Monday with an improved weather outlook. Heading into the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower, while Kansas City Wheat futures and Soybean futures were mostly 15¢ to 21¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices gained Monday, bolstered by tech stocks and apparent optimism about the prospects of a rate cut this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 168 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.23 to $2.17 higher through the front six contracts.

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Record and near-record high U.S. beef cattle prices are encouraging more live imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the relatively small numbers do not shift domestic price trends, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“The U.S. cattle industry is nearly five times the size of the Mexican cattle industry and nearly eight times the size of the Canadian industry,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. “Changes in trade will result in relatively minor market adjustments but will not change the level or trajectory of U.S. cattle prices.”

For perspective, Peel explains the U.S. comprises 75% of the North American herd, followed by Mexico at 15% and 10% in Canada.

Total annual Cattle imports to the U.S. have averaged 1.93 million head over the past decade: 1.16 million head from Mexico (60.5 percent) and 0.764 million head from Canada averaging 0.764 million head (39.5 percent), according to Peel. Imports from Mexico are mostly feeder cattle. Canada exports mostly fed cattle to the U.S. for slaughter, as well as packer cows and bulls.

Through the first four months of this year, Peel says U.S. cattle imports of 762,450 head were 17% more year over year.

On the other side of the ledger, Peel notes the U.S. exported 116,084 head to Canada and Mexico during the first four months — most going to Canada.

Cattle futures charged higher Friday, supported by the hefty rise in cash fed cattle prices. Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.41 higher ($1.92 to $3.67 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.13 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on moderate demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $195-$196 and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $193-$195. Some trades were as high at $197 in the latter two regions. Dressed delivered prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $305-$306. Dressed delivered prices were as high as $308 in Nebraska and $309 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.58 higher Friday afternoon at $319.89/cwt. Select was $4.56 higher at $303.81/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 615,000 head was 1,000 head more than the previous week but 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date total estimated cattle slaughter of 14.4 million head was 654,000 head fewer (-4.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 12.1 billion pounds was 191 million pounds less (-1.6%).

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean future softened Friday on likely profit taking. Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 21 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed  17¢ to 38¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Wholesale beef prices continued to gain on seasonal demand last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.14 higher week to week on Friday at $319.89/cwt. Select was $2.67 higher at $303.81. Choice is up $6.69 over the past two weeks.

“Both the Choice and Select beef cutout values have been methodically increasing the past few weeks as the grilling season is headed for the heart of summer,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University, in his weekly market comments.”

Griffith points out higher wholesale beef prices ultimately boost retail beef prices. So, upside potential will be etched by consumer willingness to pay more.

“Increasing retail beef prices lends itself to supporting direct to consumer beef sales as relative prices are expected to narrow,” Griffith says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade and demand were moderate in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Prices were $1 higher at $186/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on good demand. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early live FOB trades in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $192-$195. Last week, prices were $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $301 last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 71¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $318.31/cwt. Select was 32¢ higher at $299.25/cwt.

Cattle futures mostly edged higher with firmer wholesale beef prices and the outlook for higher cash prices this week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 44¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of 22¢ lower, except for an average of 30¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Grain and soybean futures firmed Thursday.

Heading toward the close, and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher, supported by a hot forecast and stronger weekly export sales. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 65 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 59 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 25¢ to 57¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Although Choice beef cutout values rallied above $300/cwt. several weeks ago, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University notes prices are a bit softer year over year.

“Somewhat counteracting the normal improved demand during the summer are the strong slaughter volumes – especially of fed heifers – and the very strong counter-seasonal fed steer and heifer slaughter weights,” Koontz says, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Fed weights were flat through March, April, and May, so now there are almost 30 more pounds of beef per animal – both steers and heifers – than last year … there is almost 5% more beef due to heavier slaughter weights.”

At the same time, beef exports continue to face challenges for a number of reasons.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending June 6 of 12,000 metric tons were 17% less than the previous week and 28% less than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Canada, China, and Mexico.

Cattle futures drifted lower, pressured in part by the lack of firm cash direction for the week.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of 42¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $301 in Nebraska and $300-$301 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 61¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $317.60/cwt. Select was $1.69 lower at $298.93/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were mixed again Wednesday, with little apparent direction taken from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 21¢ lower with likely harvest pressure. Soybean futures mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled mixed Wednesday, but were buoyed by the monthly Consumer Prices Index, which indicated slightly less inflation than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3% in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 35 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 45 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 264 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 32¢ to 42¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected average five-area direct fed steer price for most of the remainder of the year, in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, prices were projected $2 higher in the second quarter at $186/cwt. and $1 higher in the third quarter at $183, but $1 lower in the fourth quarter at $186. The forecast annual price for this year increased 50¢ to $184.01. ERS also raised the expected first-quarter price and the 2025 annual average price by $1 to $186 and $189, respectively.

Projected beef production for this year was basically unchanged at 26.6 billion pounds as heavier expected dressed weights mostly offset lower anticipated slaughter.

Forecast beef production for 2025 of 25.4 billion pounds was 245 million pounds more than the previous month’s estimate.

“The beef production forecast is raised on higher expected placements in the fourth quarter of 2024 and faster expected pace of marketings during the first half,” ERS analysts say. “In addition, dressed weights are expected to remain relatively high into 2025.”

Next year’s total would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.6%) than this year’s projected total.