WLI

Cattle futures powered ahead Wednesday, helped along by record and near-record high cash fed cattle prices at a strong premium to the Board. Floundering Corn futures added support.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.24 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $188-$191 in Kansas, and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $322.85/cwt. Select was $2.40 lower at $302.86/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Wednesday, helped along by tech stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 87 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 4¢ lower to 13¢ higher, through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers May 31 were 3% less than the previous month and down slightly year over year, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report

Frozen pork supplies were down 3% from the previous month and down 9% from a year earlier.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 3% less month to month and 5% less year over year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up 3% from the previous month but down 5% from a year earlier.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle $188-$191 in Kansas, and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $323.39/cwt. Select was 19¢ higher at $305.26/cwt.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed to lower on Tuesday, as traders bided their time for further cash direction. Before settlement, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ lower except for 2¢ higher in spot Aug. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 28¢ lower to an average of 32¢ higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with apparent fund selling and potential positioning ahead of Friday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Heading into the close, Corn futures were 9¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 10¢ lower. Soybean futures were 13¢ to 19¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 220 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 55¢ to 85¢ lower, through the front six contracts.

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Although corn and soybeans will likely receive the lion’s share of attention in Friday’s USDA Acreage report, the number of hay acres could provide hints to herd expansion in terms of availability and cost, according to Matthew Diersen, risk and business management specialist at South Dakota State University.

“Earlier this year producers expected to harvest 51.6 million acres of hay in the U.S. in 2024,” Diersen says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “While down slightly from last year, the expected level exceeds the total expected for recent years. Acres above the prospective level would be a sign of expansion plans.”

For perspective, Diersen explains the 10-year average U.S. hay yield is 2.4 tons per acre. Using the average for the expected acres, he says, would result in 124 million tons of hay, exceeding last year’s production by 5 million tons.

“Thus, any acreage figure close to last year would likely generate the tons needed to keep prices reasonable,” Diersen says.

Cattle futures closed mixed on Monday, as traders sorted through Friday’s bearish Cattle on Feed report, in tandem with the surge in negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher in the front two contracts and then narrowly mixed, from an average of 19¢ lower to an average of 13¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 22¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 15¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $189-$190/cwt. and $2-$5 higher in Kansas at $188-$191 with some as high as $198. FOB live prices were steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $197-$198 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $197-$198.

Dressed delivered prices were $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $310-$312 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $310, but with prices stretching as high as $314.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.29 higher at $194.84/cwt., which was $12.27 higher year over year. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.08 higher week to week at $310.55; it was $20.74 higher year over year.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 25¢ higher Monday afternoon at $322.64/cwt. Select was $1.96 higher at $305.07/cwt.

Turning to row crops, grain futures edged lower Monday, while Soybean futures gained.

Heading into the close, through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 2¢ lower to fractionally higher. Soybean futures closed were 8¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, with support from bank and energy stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 192 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 86¢ to 96¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Heading into July, pasture and range conditions continue positive across much of the nation, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report (week ending June 23), with 47% rated as Good (39%) or Excellent (8%), which was 3% more than a year earlier.

On the other side of the scale, 25% was rated as Poor (15%) or Very Poor (10%), compared to 24% a year earlier. Key cattle states with 35% or more rated as Poor or Very Poor included Arizona (37%), New Mexico (69%) and Texas (41%).

As for row crops, 97% of corn was in the ground, which was 1% less than a year earlier but 1% more than the five-year average. Sixty-nine percent was in Good (55%) or Excellent (14%) condition, compared to 50% a year earlier. Seven percent was rated as Poor (5%) or Very Poor (2%) versus 15% a year earlier.

Similarly, 97% of soybeans were in the ground, which was 2% less year over year but 2% more than the average. Sixty-seven percent were in Good (56%) or Excellent (11%) condition, compared to 51% a year earlier. Eight percent were in Poor (6%) or Very Poor (2%) condition, compared to 14% the prior year.

Winter wheat harvest was running ahead, too, with 40% in the bin, which was 19% more than the same time last year and 15% more than average. Fifty-two percent was in Good (42%) or Excellent (10%) condition versus 40% a year earlier. Fifteen percent was in Poor (10%) or Very Poor (5%) condition, compared to 28% at the same time last year.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report, which proved to be bearish (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ lower, except for an average of 56¢ higher in the front two contracts. They were an average of $1.27 lower week to week on Friday, except for $1.47 higher in spot Jun.

Feeder Cattle futures an average of $1.21 lower. They were an average of $2.81 lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on moderate demand in the north through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few transactions to establish a trend, there were some dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $310-$312/cwt. and some FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $197.

Based on final established trade the previous week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains $195-$198 in Nebraska and $193-$195 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 48¢ lower Friday afternoon at $322.39/cwt. Select was $1.29 lower at $303.11/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 620,000 head was 5,000 head more than the previous week but 29,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 15 million head was 687,000 head fewer (-4.4%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 12.6 billion pounds was 197.3 million pounds less (-1.5%).

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, there were an average of 16’3¢ lower through the front six contracts. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 7¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 52¢ to 56¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Traders will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as bearish with more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.0 million head in May (+84,000 head), which was 4.3% more year over year and 6% more than expectations.

In terms of placement weights, 19% went on feed weighing less than 600 lbs., 15% weighing 600-699 lbs., 24% weighing 700-799 lbs., 26% weighing 800-899 lbs., 11% weighing 900-999 lbs. and 4% weighing 1,000 lbs. or more.

Marketings in May of 1.9 million head were slightly higher (+3,000 head), which was in line with expectations.

The June 1 feedlot inventory of 11.6 million head was slightly less than a year earlier (-7,000 head), whereas estimates ahead of the report pegged it 1% lower.

Cattle futures drifted lower Thursday, lacking the week’s cash fed cattle direction and perhaps with some wariness about Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the estimates you consider, analysts peg May placements about 2% less year over year, May marketings about even and the June 1 cattle on feed inventory about 1% less.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 38¢ lower, except for an average of 49¢ higher in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 37¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Based on final established trade last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains $195-$198 in Nebraska and $193-$195 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305-$306; prices as high as $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.17 higher Thursday afternoon at $322.87/cwt. Select was $1.14 higher at $304.40/cwt.

Turning to grain and Soybean futures, heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 7¢ to 10¢ lower. Soybean futures closed were 10¢ to 18¢ lower.

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Yearling steers and heifers sold steady at Tulia Livestock Auction (1,634 head) in Texas. Stocker calves sold with a higher undertone.

Feeder steers and heifers sold $5-$8 higher at Woodward Livestock Auction (1,187 head) Oklahoma. Steer and heifer calves sold with a higher undertone in a light test.

Remember, if you’re looking for a weekly market summary and highlights, check out the CalfNews Price Point podcast that comes out each Tuesday. You’ll find it at CalfNews.net

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 140 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 77¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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For the first four month of the year, cattle on feed longer than 150 days May 1 was the highest in 12 years, according to analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“According to industry participants, some packers are foregoing typical discounts on cattle above certain weights, further incentivizing feedlots to keep cattle on feed longer, especially as they maintain feedlot capacity utilization in the face of slowing placements,” ERS analysts explain.

Year over year for the week ending May 25, 2024, steer carcass weights were 37 pounds heavier and heifer carcass weights were 29 pounds higher, according to ERS.

“This additional weight is enabling packers to partially offset the impact of having fewer cattle to process than a year ago, as carcasses are yielding about 4% more product year over year,” ERS analysts say.

As mentioned in Cattle Current recently, ERS left projected beef production for this year basically unchanged, compared to the previous month at 26.6 billion pounds, as heavier expected dressed weights mostly offset lower anticipated slaughter.

Forecast beef production for 2025 of 25.4 billion pounds was 245 million pounds more than the previous month’s estimate.

Next year’s total would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.6%) than this year’s projected total.