WLI

Cattle futures extended gains Wednesday, supported by strong wholesale beef values and prospects of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices for the holiday-shortened week. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.88 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains at mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312 but stretched as high as $317.

For added perspective, last month’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $8.82 higher year over year at $193.33/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $13.04 higher at $307.26.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 55¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $329.84/cwt. Select was $2.10 lower at $304.38/cwt.

Corn and Kansas City Wheat futures softened Wednesday with pressure from favorable weather. Heading into the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.  Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

Futures and equity markets will be closed Thursday in observance of Independence Day.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed, as investors seemed to mostly ignore weaker than expected job growth, by one measure.

Private sector employment increased by 150,000 jobs in June, according to the June ADP^®National Employment Report™ produced by the ADP Research Institute^® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

“Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 23 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 28 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 159 points.

Cattle futures rallied Tuesday, supported by strong wholesale beef values, which were propped up further by lost production at Cargill’s plant in Dodge City for a few days this week, due to a partial roof collapse, owing to heavy rain last weekend. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.54 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.06 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains and mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312, but stretched as high as $317.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.21 higher Tuesday afternoon at $330.39/cwt. Select was 7¢ higher at $306.48/cwt.

Front-month Corn and Soybean futures gained Tuesday, likely with additional short covering. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally higher to 5¢ higher.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 10¢ lower with likely harvest pressure. 

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Major U.S. financial indices gained again on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 149 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were narrowly mixed through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment drifted lower in June, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which declined 3 points month to month to 105. A 5-point decline in the Index of Future Expectations to 112 drove the weaker outlook as the Current Conditions Index increased 1 point to 90.

High input costs, the risk of lower commodity prices and rising interest rates continue to weigh on sentiment.

“The impact of rising interest rates on their farm operations has become a bigger concern for producers in recent months,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Interest rate risk and high breakeven levels combined with concerns that crop and livestock prices could weaken are holding back producer sentiment and making producers cautious about making large investments.”

More producers indicated that it is not a favorable time for large investments compared to May, while the percentage of producers who viewed it as a good time remained the same. The Farm Capital Investment Index declined 3 points to a reading of 32, just 1 point above its historical low.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from June 17-21.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., unevenly steady in Kansas at $190, steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $198 (some up to $200) and mainly steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $198.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $312 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $312. Prices ran as high as $317 in both regions.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price was 97¢ higher at $195.81. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.92 higher at $313.47.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.86 higher Monday afternoon at $329.18/cwt. Select was $1.91 higher at $306.41.

Cattle futures softened again Monday with sluggish interest. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.05 lower.

As for the grain complex, short covering seemed to be the order of the day. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mainly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 13¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 12¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices gained on Monday, helped along by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 50 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 146 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.32 to $1.84 higher through the front six contracts, as traders appeared to add risk premium based on political tensions in the Middle East and concerns about hurricane season. Holiday demand added support.

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Between USDA’s estimate of planted area in Friday’s Acreage report and trendline yields, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University says corn production this year would be about 15 billion bushels. If usage remains steady, he explains the stocks to use ratio would increase to more than 16%.

“This level of stocks has not been seen since the 2005/06 crop year,” Koontz says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “New crop corn futures have fallen to between $4.15-$4.20 and $4.00 will be pressured if yields are better than the trend, which seems likely, given the rainfall that much of the Corn Belt has seen. The cattle – and every other protein animal – industry is looking at prospects of the lowest feed grain prices in years.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were unevenly steady at $190/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand with some early FOB live trades in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $198, but too few to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices the previous week were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 11,000 head fewer than the previous week and 42,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 15.6 million head was 729,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 13.1 billion pounds was 209.7 million pounds less (-1.6%) year over year.

Cattle futures softened Friday with likely profit taking, month-end positioning and traders apparently leery to step out ahead of the week’s cash fed cattle trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.14 higher in the front three contracts ($1.25 to $5.90 higher) as the expiring spot Jun closed some of the broad gap with cash. From there Live Cattle were an average of 75¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.72 lower on Fiday. Week to week they were an average of 60¢ lower, except for 92¢ higher in spot Aug.

Corn futures dove lower Friday with the bearish Acreage report, applying pressure to Wheat and Soybeans, along with likely month-end position squaring.

Corn futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower. Week to week they were an average of 31’0¢ lower through the front six contracts, an average of 47’3¢ lower over the past two weeks.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 5¢ to 10¢ lower through May ’25 and then fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through near Nov  and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices settled lower Friday, as investors squared books for the end of the month.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 126 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 19¢ to 27¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures softened Thursday, with likely profit taking and no cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ lower, except for $1.47 higher and unchanged in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 lower, except for 15¢ higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $189-$190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $188-$191 in Kansas, and mainly $197-$198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $310-$312 in Nebraska and $310 in the western Corn Belt with prices stretching as high as $314.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 48¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $323.33/cwt. Select was 16¢ lower at $302.70/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower again Thursday with likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 10¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Thursday, ahead of key inflation data Friday.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 36 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 53 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 34¢ to 91¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Prices for food away from home (FAFH) — eating out — grew more quickly over the last decade than food at home (FAH), and the overall rate of inflation, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“Prices for all consumer goods and services across the economy, as measured by the all-items Consumer Price Index, rose by 34.3% between January 2014 and May 2024,” ERS analysts say. “FAFH prices climbed steadily over the past decade and were 49.5% higher in May 2024 than January 2014, while prices for FAH, or groceries, rose 29.9%.”