WLI

Cattle futures were mixed Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ lower, except for an average of 19¢ higher in the back three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ higher, except for an average of 66¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $299.80/cwt. Select was 28¢ lower at $268.78.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending Sept. 26 of 22,500 metric tons for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 68% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Thursday, likely pressured by producer selling and profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday as crude oil prices continued to climb on worries about disruptions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 184 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.93 to $3.57 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with expanding open interest from fund buying.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.00 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week FOB Live prices were $185/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $187 in Nebraska and $186-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292-$294.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 36¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $299.81/cwt. Select was $1.37 lower at $283.93.

Grain futures closed higher Wednesday, led by wheat with weather and war premium.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 17¢ to 19¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed slightly higher Wednesday as investors digested the Middle East conflict and the U.S. port strike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 39 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was up 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 92¢ to $1.18 through the front six contracts. 

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Feed grain remains 18-24% lower than last year, allowing feedlots to continue holding cattle longer to increase fed weights, according to Hannah Baker, Extension beef cattle and forage economist at the University of Florida.

“Average steer dressed weights reached 925 pounds as of September 1, almost 3% heavier than year-ago levels and 4% higher than the historical average,” Baker explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The percentage of cattle grading Choice has also increased by 3.5% since last year and by 2% compared to the 2018-2022 average.”

Further, Baker notes that while current price trends are similar to those in 2015 during the same period, herd expansion had already begun.

“There was no incentive for prices to climb back up after the typical dip in the fall,” Baker explains. “In the current market, we have not seeing signs of stabilization, much less expansion, and have already hit record prices that we saw back in 2015. This indicates that while we are experiencing some seasonality this year, it is not expected that we are headed for a continuous low level of cattle prices.”

There was no afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.09 higher Tuesday afternoon at $300.17/cwt. Select was 77¢ higher at $285.30.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 31¢ higher, except for unchanged in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ lower, except for unchanged at either end of the board, pressured by another day of higher Corn futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally mixed.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday amid growing tensions in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 173 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 278 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.06 to $2.59 higher through the front six contracts on worries about the Middle East conflict. 

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Declining income expectations pushed the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to its lowest readings since March 2016. Farmer sentiment fell 12 points month to month to 88. The Index of Future Expectations dropped 14 points to 94. The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 76.

“The continued drop in the barometer reflects deepening concerns among farmers regarding expectations for farm income in 2024 and 2025,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “It’s notable that producer sentiment dropped back to levels last seen in 2016 when the U.S. farm economy was in the early stages of an economic downturn. In addition to commodity prices and input costs weighing heavily on their operations, producers are also facing considerable uncertainty about what lies ahead for their farms with the possible government policy changes following the upcoming 2024 elections.”

When asked to identify their top concerns for the coming year, low commodity prices and high input costs were nearly tied, with 34% of farmers citing input prices and 33% pointing to lower output prices as their primary concerns. Interest rates trailed behind as a top concern for 17% of respondents. Producers’ apprehensions about commodity prices matched up with their lack of confidence in the future of U.S. agricultural exports; only 26% of respondents expect exports to rise over the next five years, the most pessimistic response to this question since it was first introduced in 2019. Additionally, 78% of producers expressed concern that government policy changes following the fall 2024 elections could impact their farms.

There was no afternoon USDA fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $2.14 higher week to week at $186.15/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered steer prices was $3.12 higher at $293.53.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.39 higher Monday afternoon at $298.08/cwt. Select was $2.45 higher at $284.53.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures closed were an average of 38¢ higher with follow-through support from last week’s higher cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ lower except for 17¢ higher at the back with pressure from higher Corn futures.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher, buoyed by the neutral to friendly Grain Stocks report and likely quarter-end short covering. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 9¢ lower on an improved South American weather outlook.  

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 69 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 15¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Beef cow numbers when 2025 begins will likely be less year over year with limited potential to expand until the following year, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

Although year-to-date beef cow slaughter is 16.3% less so far this year, Peel explains in his weekly market comments, “The rate of beef cow slaughter in 2024, although sharply lower year over year, is not down enough to offset the small bred beef heifer inventory at the beginning of the year. The beef cow herd is likely down year over year in 2024.”

Peel adds the 12-month moving average of the heifer slaughter percentage of total cattle slaughter has yet to decrease.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the north to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $185/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $186-$187 and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$187. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at mainly $294 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 32¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $296.69/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $282.08.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 612,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week and the same as the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 23.3 million head was 938,000 fewer (-3.9%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 19.7 billion pounds was 163.9 million pounds less (-0.8%).

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 26¢ lower to an average of 14¢ higher in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 31¢ higher except for 47¢ lower at the back.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.08 higher.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Friday, ahead of Monday’s Grain Stocks report and perhaps with some month- and quarter-end squaring.

Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 24¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 12¢ to 18¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday, amid ongoing bullishness about easing inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 137 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 70 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 37¢ to 51¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Retail beef prices continue at record-high levels with the August all fresh beef price at $8.155 per pound and the August Choice beef price at $8.525 per pound, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee.

Griffith explains in his weekly market comments that strong consumer demand, reduced beef production and easing inflation are helping drive prices higher.

“Similar to beef, poultry and pork prices remain elevated. The retail price of pork for August was $4.899 per pound compared to its record high of $5.047 in October 2022. The retail broiler price for August was $1.988 compared to its record high price of $2.013 in May of this year,” Griffith says.