WLI

Cattle futures firmed Thursday.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 28¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.04 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow with light to moderate demand in the North to inactive with very light demand in the South through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $198 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $198. Dressed delivered prices are $2 lower in Nebraska at $312. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn belt the previous week were $312-$315.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.40 lower Thursday afternoon at $321.65/cwt. Select was 56¢ lower at $303.38/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Thursday on oversold conditions. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 15¢ to 22¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major financial indices closed mixed Thursday with much of the give and take attributed to the lower inflation reading than expected, boosting hopes for an interest rate cut.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers declined 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after being unchanged in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 364 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 30¢ to 83¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued to unwind Thursday, pressured by declining wholesale beef value and lower cash trade in the South.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 61¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.94 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $2 lower at$188/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.61 lower Wednesday afternoon at $324.05/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $303.94/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Wednesday ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower to 5¢ higher.  Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 12¢ to 13¢ lower. Soybean futures were 13¢ to 25¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, supported by tech stocks and with investors apparently betting on a favorable Consumer Price Index due out Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 429 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 218 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 36¢ to $1.04 higher through the front six contracts.

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A recent economic analysis of the national Beef Checkoff program found that each dollar invested in its demand-driving activities for the most recent five-year period (2019–2023) positively impacted domestic beef demand and U.S. beef exports, creating a total financial benefit of $13.41 for the producers and importers who pay into the program.

The Beef Checkoff commissioned the independent economic analysis to assess the effectiveness and additional financial benefits produced by the program’s demand-driving activities. The analysis was conducted by Dr. Harry M. Kaiser of Cornell University.

Cattle futures tried to gain early again in Tuesday’s session but broke back, apparently spurred in part by a knee-jerk reaction to mid-day Choice boxed beef prices which were $4.87/lower; Select was $1.69 lower.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.52 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.92 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $190-$193 in Kansas.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.81 lower Tuesday afternoon at $325.66/cwt. Select was 41¢ lower at $304.31

Front-month grain futures firmed Tuesday while Soybean futures continued to erode. Positive weather continues to apply pressure. As the week continues, traders will also be positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher to 8¢ higher in spot Jly. Soybean futures were 14¢ to 21¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed again Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 52 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 25 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to 90¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Continued strong heifer slaughter suggests that little, if any, heifer retention for herd rebuilding has begun, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. He notes this, along with longer feeding periods, are why average monthly feedlot inventories June 1 were the same year over year, and through the first half of this year, were only 2.2% less than peak levels in September of 2022.

“Supply fundamentals will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year and beyond,” Peel says. “Beef production will likely finish the year down 3.0-3.5% year over year, less than previously expected due to continued heavy carcass weights. Feedlot inventories and cattle slaughter will continue to decline, perhaps faster if heifer retention begins in a significant way. Barring outside shocks, cattle prices will remain at record levels and push even higher if herd rebuilding begins in the coming months.” 

Peel notes mid-year cattle prices are at record-high levels.

“Fed steers averaged $195.81/cwt. (live basis) and 850-pound, Med/Large, No. 1 steers averaged $255.41/cwt. in Oklahoma auctions prior to July 4,” Peel says.  “Likewise Boning cull cows, average dressing, averaged $143.22/cwt. with high-dressing Breaker cows averaging $154.41/cwt. Steers calves are priced slightly below the March seasonal peak but averaged $324.53/cwt. before July 4 for 475-pound Med/Large, No. 1 steers, down from the $350.85/cwt. March average.”

Cattle futures tried to gain early in Monday’s session but ran out of steam to close lower in what turned out to be a risk-off day in ag commodities, perhaps with some positioning at the beginning of the Goldman Roll.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.34 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.01 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt. and steady to $3 higher in Kansas at $190-$193.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $198 in Nebraska and $198-$200 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $314 in Nebraska and $312-$315 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 4¢ higher Monday afternoon at $330.47/cwt. Select was 34¢ lower at $304.72/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures lost ground Monday, with added pressure from more moisture in the forecast. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 12¢ to 17¢ lower.  Kansas City Wheat futures were 14¢ to 21¢ lower.  Soybean futures were 15¢ to 30¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday as investors await key inflation data this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 50 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 56¢ to 94¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef export value topped $900 million in May, which was 3% more year over year and the most since June 2023, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). U.S. beef export value equated to $410.94 per head of fed slaughter in May, up 3% from a year ago.

In terms of volume, May beef exports totaled 110,133 metric tons (mt), down 5% from a year ago but the second largest of 2024.

Exports trended higher year-over-year to Japan, Mexico, the ASEAN Region, the Middle East, the Caribbean and Central America – which included a record month for Guatemala. May export value was also higher for Taiwan.

For January through May, beef exports followed a similar trend, increasing 5% year-over-year in value to $4.29 billion, despite a 4% decline in volume (533,578 mt). January-May U.S. beef export value equated to $410.40 per head of fed slaughter, which was 5% more than the same period last year.

“It has been encouraging to see demand stabilize in Japan, where U.S. beef certainly faces significant headwinds,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The tourism boom has provided a much-needed lift for Japan’s foodservice sector, and it is a source of optimism for buyers and importers. Taiwan and the ASEAN region were also bright spots for U.S. beef in May, along with Western Hemisphere markets such as Mexico, Guatemala and the Caribbean.”

May pork exports totaled 251,447 mt, down 4% from a year ago, valued at $715.8 million (down 2%).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady at $190/cwt. in a light test.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on very light demand with too few transactions to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312 but stretched as high as $317.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Friday afternoon at $330.43/cwt. Select was 68¢ higher at $305.06/cwt.

Cattle futures mainly drifted lower in light post-holiday trade on Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 20¢ lower, except for an average of 41¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.49 lower.

Grain and Soybean futures rallied on Friday, with Wheat receiving support from export sales and Corn buoyed by a spottier rain forecast.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed 11¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Friday, supported by a weaker labor report than expected, boosting hopes of the Fed cutting interest rates.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was slightly higher at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 10¢ to $35. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 67 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 164 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 72¢ to 77¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in June for the 10^th consecutive month. Specifically, the RMI declined from 44.2 in May to 41.7 in June. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business explains higher interest rates, weak agriculture commodity prices and sinking agriculture equipment sales were key drivers of the decline.

“Farm operating loans are up 20% in total volume compared to last year, a sign that cash flow and cash (balances) are down from last year,” says James Brown, president of Hardin County Savings Bank in Eldora, Iowa.