WLI

Cattle futures sagged lower Thursday with the week’s wobbly cash fed cattle trade, sharply lower outside markets and likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.06 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.47 lower. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in the North to mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, live FOB prices are unevenly steady in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt. and dressed delivered trades are $2 lower in Nebraska at $310/cwt.

Last week, live FOB prices were mostly $198 in the North with dressed delivered prices at $312 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.01 lower Thursday afternoon at $316.15/cwt. Select was $1.22 higher at $299.46/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales were 15,400 metric tons (mt) for the week ending July 11, according to USDA’s weekly export sales report. Volume was 85% more than the previous week and 11% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ lower with pressure likely including anemic export sales. Net U.S. corn exports were 19% less than the previous week and 10% less than the prior-four-week average.

Kansas City Wheat futures were narrowly mixed. 

Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, with more rotation from tech stocks and apparent profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 533 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 43 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 125 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 29¢ to 58¢   lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) for the remainder of this year and next, in the July Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Projected prices increased $6 in the third quarter to $269/cwt. and $5 in the fourth quarter to $268. This year’s annual average price increased $3.54 to $258.50. Forecast prices increased by $4 in the first quarter of next year to $251 and by $4 for the annual 2025 average to $262.50.

“In the first half of 2024, forage conditions have generally improved from a year ago, corn prices are relatively less expensive, and the prospect for higher fed cattle prices this year have supported strong feeder cattle prices … the expected supply for feeder cattle available in second-half 2024 will remain tight, supporting elevated feeder cattle prices,” ERS analysts say.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, projected prices increased $7 for the third quarter to $190/cwt. and $2 for the fourth quarter to $188, based on recent prices and expectations of firm fed cattle demand. The projected annual average price for this year increased by $2.85 to $186.86. Next year’s annual average price was projected $2 higher at $191 with an average of $188 in the first quarter.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon with early FOB live trades at $188/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $198 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $312.

Live Cattle futures strengthened Wednesday as cash fed cattle traded steady in the South. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, perhaps with some positioning and wariness ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Estimates ahead of the report peg June placements at 3% less year over year, June marketings about 8% less and the July 1 on-feed inventory about 1% more.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 lower Wednesday afternoon at $318.16/cwt. Select was $3.15 lower at $298.44/cwt.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, from an average of 24¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 39¢ higher.  

Grain and Soybean futures continued to firm Wednesday with more short covering and some support from the lower U.S. dollar.

Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 12¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ lower to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed widely mixed Wednesday, as tech stocks retreated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 243 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 78 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 512 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.08 to $2.31 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures mostly strengthened Tuesday, supported by bullish outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 57¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ higher, except for unchanged in spot Aug and an average of 9¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and mostly $198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312 in Nebraska and mostly $312 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.23 lower Tuesday afternoon at $319.26/cwt. Select was $3.23 lower at $301.59/cwt.

Corn and Soybean futures firmed Tuesday with likely short covering. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S.  financial indices closed higher again Tuesday, amid multi-sector support and growing optimism about interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 742 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 35 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 36 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 95¢ to $1.09   lower through the front six contracts.

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Feedlot net returns through August are projected to be positive, based on the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns from Kansas State University (K-State).

“Steers sold in June are estimated to have experienced positive net returns of $51.12/head. This reverses a six-month trend of losses for the modeled feedlot situation,” explains Glynn Tonsor, K-State agricultural economist, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Several factors underlie the improved returns in June. Steers sold in June are modeled to have $111/cwt cost of gain which is well below the $122 average for the first five months of 2024. Similarly, a June fed cattle sales price of $185/cwt being above the $182 average for the first months of 2024 further aided in turning June net returns positive.”

Tonsor notes the data series reflects a cash situation, presumes no ongoing hedging of feed or cattle price movement, and is intended to provide a barometer of profitability trends rather than precise estimates for any given feedlot situation.

Beyond August net feedlot returns are projected to be negative through March of next year.

“The projected switch to negative returns primarily reflects increased feeder cattle placement prices negating comparatively small increases in outgoing fed cattle sales prices,” Tonsor says. “While each operation certainly has unique considerations to make in using this barometer of profit trends, the broader dynamics in both feed and cattle markets will remain worth watching in coming months as discussions around relative cattle supplies and status of beef demand strength evolve.”

Feeder Cattle futures moved higher Monday, helped along by wilting Corn futures, while Live Cattle futures sought near-term direction. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 62¢ higher.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from 25¢ lower to 37¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains $198 in Nebraska and mostly $198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312 in Nebraska and mostly $312 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 57¢ lower Monday afternoon at $321.49/cwt. Select was $2.51 higher at $304.82/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures took a step lower Monday, pressured by the continued positive weather outlook. Toward the close and through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 11¢ to 12¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 12¢ to 16¢ lower. Soybean futures were 26¢ to 29¢ lower. 

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Major financial indices closed higher Monday with investors apparently betting the failed assassination attempt on former President, Donald Trump, will lead to another term in office, accompanied by market-friendly policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 210 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 74 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 24¢ to 34¢  lower through the front six contracts.

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Wholesale beef prices are etching lower as markets enter the summer doldrums.

“Beef demand usually slows between the July 4 and Labor Day holidays as both summer grilling and high-end restaurant traffic slows in the heat of the summer,” explains Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “The early-July drop in boxed beef price is the result of seasonal weakness in the main middle meats: Tenderloin, Ribeye and Strip Loin. Wholesale prices for a number of other cuts continue to move higher, including for Tri-tip and Flank steak, along with numerous chuck and round cuts. Several lean round cuts are no doubt supported by the record-high price for lean trimmings that is pushing wholesale ground beef value to ever-higher record levels.”

Peel also notes beef production in June was 3.8% more year over year, driven by slightly higher fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights.

“Carcass weights finally showed some decrease with the latest reported steer carcass weights the last week of June at 911 pounds, down from 924 pounds five weeks earlier,” Peel says. “Summer heat is likely a factor in declining carcass weights, as well. The decrease in carcass weights has been much slower than is typical through June and it is not clear what the seasonal pattern will be for the remainder of the year. Carcass weights typically begin increasing seasonally in July, but steer carcasses are already 27 pounds higher year over year, even with the recent decrease.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to limited with very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., steady in Nebraska at $198 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $197-$198.50. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $312. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $312-$315.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 75¢ higher (12¢ to $1.15 higher). However, they were an average of $2.63 lower week to week on Friday. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.37 higher on Friday but were an average of $4.66 lower week to week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 41¢ higher Friday afternoon at $322.06/cwt. Select was $1.07 lower at $302.31/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was down $8.37 and Select was $2.75 lower.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 601,000 head was 79,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week, but 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 16.7 million head was 778,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 14.1 billion pounds was 226.2 million pounds less (1.6%).   

Corn futures firmed Friday, buoyed by a bullish WASDE. They closed mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher, but they were an average of 9’7¢ lower through the front six contracts week to week on Friday.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Dec ’25 and then unchanged to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 12¢ lower through May ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major financial indices closed higher Friday with extended investor optimism regarding the potential of interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 247 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 115 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 16¢ to 41¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, projected prices increased $7 for the third quarter to $190/cwt. and $2 for the fourth quarter to $188, based on recent prices and expectations of firm fed cattle demand. The projected annual average price for this year increased by $2.85 to $186.86. Next year’s annual average price was projected $2 higher at $191 with an average of $188 in the first quarter.

Price expectations increased despite higher forecast beef production. Compared to the previous month, this year’s beef production was projected 65 million pounds more at 26.7 billion pounds with higher expected steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting reduced cow slaughter. Beef production for next year was projected 100 million pounds more at 25.5 billion pounds based on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially offset by lower cow slaughter. Next year’s estimated beef production would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.5%) than this year’s projected total.