WLI

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Monday, as traders appeared to take stock after last week’s strong gains.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 17¢ higher, from 30¢ lower in near Aug.

Feeder Cattle were an average of 57¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in the back contract. Pressure included stronger Corn futures prices.

Negotiated cash fed trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190 with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $298-$300 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $300 with some up to $306.

The weighted weekly average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $2.60 higher at $188.54. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.11 higher at $299.39.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ lower Monday afternoon at $312.70/cwt. Select was $1.95 higher at $299.35/cwt.

Kansas City Wheat futures rallied Monday, up 24¢ to 34¢ through Dec ’25 heading into the close on concerns about crop damage in the Ukraine and Russia, and leading Corn. Corn futures were 6¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ‘25. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 18¢ higher through Aug ’25. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed Mixed Monday with tech stocks leading the positive side.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 196 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 18¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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“Conditions at the beginning of the 2024 forage growing season suggest that producers may be able to plan grazing and hay production with less restriction compared to recent years,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “However, in many cases, pastures and ranges still need time to recover from extended drought conditions.” He points out there is currently less drought in the U.S. than at any time in the past four years.

Nationally, 49% of the nation’s pasture and range was rated as Good (40%) or Excellent (9%) the week ending May 19, according to the latest weekly Crop Progress report. That was 12% more than a year earlier. On the other end of the scale, 20% of the nation’s pasture and range was rated as Poor (13%) or Very Poor (7%), which was 9% less than a year earlier. The only key cattle states with 35% or more rated as Poor or Very Poor were New Mexico (59%) and Texas (38%).

“There is reason to be cautiously optimistic for better cattle production conditions in 2024,” Peel says. “However, the forecasted redevelopment of La Niña conditions this summer is worrisome. The seasonal forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is for above average temperatures and below average precipitation for the next three months in much of major beef cattle country. Proceed with caution.” 

As for row crops, corn planting made up some ground last week but continued to lag with 70% in the ground which was 6% less than the same time last year and 1% less than the five-year average. 40% was emerged versus 46% a year earlier and 39% for average.

Similarly, soybean planting was 9% less than a year earlier at 52% but was 3% ahead of the average. 26% of soybeans were emerged, compared to 31% a year earlier and 21% for average.

As for winter wheat, 69% was headed, compared to 58% a year earlier and 57% for average. 49% was rated as Good (42%) or Excellent (7%), compared to 31% a year earlier. 18% was rated as Poor (13%) or Very Poor (5%) compared to 40% a year earlier.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the Texas Panhandle to active on good demand elsewhere, through Friday afternoon according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $186/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt $190 with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $298-$300. Last week, dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were mostly $295.

Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live sales in the Texas Panhandle at $186, where prices the previous week were $184.

Fed cattle prices were supported by slower packer production helping to boost wholesale beef prices. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.30 higher Friday afternoon at $313.45/cwt., the highest level since March. Select was 89¢ higher at $297.40/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $18.88 higher and Select was $13.23 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 598,000 head was 24,000 head fewer than the previous week and 42,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 11.9 million head was 570,000 head fewer than the (-4.5%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.1 billion pounds was 220.6 million pounds less (-2.1%).

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, amid stronger boxed beef values and higher cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.21 higher, from 67¢ higher at the back to $2.02 higher at the front. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of $3.92 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.03 higher. They were an average of $7.87 higher week to week on Friday.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 14’9¢ lower through the front six contracts.

On Friday, KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through May ’25 and then 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 11¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly higher Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 12 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 82¢ to 85¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Increased U.S. beef imports — mostly lean trim for grinding — continue enabling added value to decreasing domestic production.

Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee provides illustration in his weekly market comments.

“The retail price of a chuck roast in April was $7.52 per pound, compared to $5.28 per pound for ground chuck. The $2.24 per pound difference in chuck roast and ground chuck demonstrates the importance of lean beef imports to support ground beef demand domestically, because a whole muscle cut clearly has a higher value as is compared to placing it in the grind mix. The same can be said for a round roast which had an average retail value of $6.86 per pound,” Griffith explains. “It is extremely important to note these price differences, because folks in the cattle industry are attempting to market cattle and beef products to their highest value and the ability to import lean grinding beef allows packers to market items such as the chuck and round as roasts instead of placing them in the grind mix.”

First-quarter U.S. beef imports of 1.2 billion pounds were 25% more year over year and 44% more than the five-year average, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) in the May Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. U.S. beef imports this year are forecast at 4.2 billion pounds. That would be a 12% increase year over year and the first time beef imports exceed 4 billion pounds, according to ERS.

“The U.S. beef trade balance is expected to show a widening deficit (imports higher than exports) in 2024 and 2025,” say ERS analysts. “With domestic beef production expected to fall about 6% in 2025, annual exports are forecast at 2.5 billion pounds, representing an 11% decrease year over year … The combination of fewer supplies available to export, higher beef prices in the United States, and increased competition from Oceania will continue to create challenges for the expansion of U.S. beef exports.”

Cattle futures extended further Thursday, buoyed by another day of higher wholesale beef prices, bullish outside markets and a positive reading of export demand.

Net U.S. beef export sales for 2024 the week ending May 9 of 15,100 metric tons were 23% more than the previous week, but 11% less than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, China, Taiwan, Mexico and South Korea.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.38 higher Thursday afternoon at $310.15/cwt. Select was $2.20 higher at $296.51/cwt.

Heading into the close and before settlement…

Live Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.40 higher, receiving added support from softer Corn futures.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $186-$190/cwt. and a few dressed delivered sales at $298-$300.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Grain futures softened again Thursday.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 1¢ lower through Sep ’25. Soybean were mostly 1¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ‘25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 44 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 72¢ to 76¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased this year’s expected annual average feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) by $1, compared to the previous month’s forecast, to $255.46/cwt., in the May Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices increased in the second quarter by $5 to $255 and by $2 in the third quarter to $263. The average fourth-quarter price was reduced $3 to $264. Price increases in the second and third quarters assume adequate forage supplies and declines in forecast corn season average prices. The 2025 feeder average steer price forecast is $259.00.

On the other side of the fence, as reported in Cattle Current Monday, ERS reduced the forecast average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Based on recent data and an anticipated faster pace of marketing in the second half of the year, prices were reduced $1 in the second quarter to $184/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $3 in the fourth quarter to $187 for annual average price of $183.51, which was $1.49 less than the previous month’s estimate. Next year’s average price was forecast at $188 on expected tighter cattle and beef supplies.

Estimated beef production for this year of 26.6 billion pounds was 140 million pounds more than the previous month’s forecast. Forecast beef production next year of 25.1 billion pounds would be 1.5 billion pounds less (-5.5%) than this year.

Cattle futures extended gains, supported by recently resurgent wholesale beef prices.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 26¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of 47¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.38 higher Wednesday afternoon at $306.77/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $294.31/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Turning to row crops, Grain futures were lower again on likely profit taking and producer selling.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower through Sep ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 7¢ lower through May ‘25. Soybean were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower through May ‘25. 

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Major U.S. financial indices jumped higher Wednesday on encouraging inflation news.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4% in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 349 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 231 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 48¢ to 84¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Domestic U.S. beef demand continued to be extraordinarily resilient in the face of continued high retail prices.

“The USDA all-fresh beef retail price was at $7.89 per pound in March. A new all-time high for that month,” according to Rabobank analysts, in their April North American agribusiness review.  “The stronger price trend pushed first-quarter 2024 consumer beef demand to its second-highest level in the last 30 years.”

The Choice beef retail price in March was $8.12 per pound, which was 48 cents higher (+6.3%) year over year. During the same period, the composite broiler retail price was about 2 cents higher at $2.43 (+0.1%) and retail pork value was up about 4 cents (+0.1%) at $4.79.

More specifically, ground beef prices were 6.1% higher year over year at $5.13 per pound. Choice, boneless chuck roast was 9.4% higher at $6.73 and the Choice sirloin steak price was up 12.2% at $11.54.

Conversely, boneless chicken breast was 5.1% less at about $4.11 per pound. Boneless ham (not canned) was 1.8% less at $5.57 and bacon was fractionally lower at $6.61. Pork chop prices (all) were 2.2% higher at about $4.26.

Cattle futures rallied Tuesday, supported by slower packer production which is helping lift wholesale beef prices.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.29 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.20 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.44 higher Tuesday afternoon at $304.39/cwt. Select was $6.64 higher at $293.82/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.44 higher Tuesday afternoon at $304.39/cwt. Select was $6.64 higher at $293.82/cwt.

Turning to row crops, heading into the close, front-month Grain futures were softer on likely profit taking and producer selling.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday as investors awaited key inflation reports this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 25 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 122 points.

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The percentage of heifers in the fed cattle mix must drop below the long-run average of just over 37% — likely 35-36% — in order for the next herd expansion to begin, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“There is no indication that is happening yet,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. He explains heifer slaughter, as a percentage of fed cattle slaughter was 40% last year, as high as it has ever been. Although fractionally lower year over year, it was 40.5% in the first quarter this year.

“In most cases, the total increase in the cow herd from trough to peak is 2.2 to 2.9 million head, an increase of 5.8% to 9.4%,” Peel explains, reflecting on cattle cycles since 1975. “The corresponding increase in replacement heifers ranged from 1.1 to just over 1.2 million head in three of the four cycles. The most recent cycle, from 2014-2019, was different in that the increase in beef replacement heifers started prior to herd expansion and ended prior to the peak in herd inventory. This is likely an indication that there was pent up desire to expand that was delayed due to drought in 2011-2013.”