WLI

Cattle futures started and ended the session higher Tuesday, supported by last week’s stronger cash prices and the neutral monthly Cattle on Feed report, Live Cattle futures were an average of 83¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.52 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $192 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190-$192.

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $4-$6 higher at $304 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302-$304 in a light test.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $1.55 higher at $190.09. The average dressed delivered steer price was $4.10 higher at $303.49.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.67 higher Tuesday afternoon at $312.12/cwt. Select was $1.71 higher at $303.43/cwt.

Heading into the close Tuesday, through Jly ‘25, Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 12¢ higher. Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower and Soybean futures were 2¢ to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday, led by tech stocks but pressured by the broader market as treasury yields rose. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 216 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 99 points.

******************************

Sluggish feedlot marketings continues adding to fed cattle weights.

“The latest weekly data shows steer carcass weights at 923 pounds, up 32 pounds compared to one year ago, and heifer carcass weights of 848 pounds, up 28 pounds from one year ago,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Increased carcass weights are partially offsetting reduced cattle slaughter and keeping beef production higher than otherwise. For the first 19 weeks of the year, beef production is down 2.1% year over year. Earlier forecasts called for 2024 beef production to be down nearly 5%, but those forecasts have been revised due to the heavy carcass weights.”

Although marketings for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity were 10.1% more year over year in April, according to the latest Cattle on Feed report, Peel explains daily average marketings were about the same year over year when adjusted for the two extra marketing days in 2024.

“April marketings were 15.8% of the April 1 on-feed inventory, the highest monthly rate since August 2023,” Peel says. “Nevertheless, the average marketing rate over the past 12 months remains historically low. Marketings in the first four months of this year are down 0.6% year over year.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $187/cwt., mainly $2 higher in Nebraska at $192 (some up to $193.50) and mostly $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $192 (some up to $193).

Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $4-$6 higher at mostly $304 (some up to $305). Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were mainly $300 (some up to $306).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 61¢ higher Friday afternoon at $310.45/cwt. Select was $1.64 higher at $301.72/cwt.

Estimated cattle slaughter last week of 607,000 head was 9,000 more than the previous week but 18,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimate total cattle slaughter of 12.6 million head was 594,00 head fewer than (-4.5%) than the same period a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.6 billion pounds was 213.9 million pounds less (-2.0%).

Cattle futures edged mostly lower Friday ahead of the long holiday weekend and the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 13¢ lower, except for an average of 11¢ higher in the front two contracts. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of $1.76 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ lower, except for 40¢ higher in newly minted away-May. They were an average of $1.46 higher week to week on Friday.

Turning to row crops, Grain futures closed higher Friday with traders maintaining a weather premium.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 10¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 4 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 184 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 52¢ to 85¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Depending on which estimates were consulted ahead of time, Friday’s Cattle on Feed report will likely be viewed as neutral, coming in pretty much in line with estimates.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in April, which was 102,000 head fewer (-5.8%) than the previous year.

In terms of placement weights, 33% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 50% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 17% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in April of 1.9 million head were 172,000 head more (+10.1%) year over year.

The on-feed inventory May 1 of 11.6 million head was 100,000 head fewer (-0.9%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures started stronger Thursday, buoyed by higher cash fed cattle prices in the South, but faded to a lower close on likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report and the holiday weekend.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ lower. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.07 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on good demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 higher at $187/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light to moderate demand. Although too few to trend so far this week, there are some early FOB live sales in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $192.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.33 lower Thursday afternoon at $309.84/cwt. Select was 47¢ higher at $300.08/cwt.

U.S. beef export sales continue to show promise. The week ending May 16, net U.S. beef export sales for 2024 of 21,500 metric tons were 42% more than the previous week and 32% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for China, South Korea, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan.

As for row crops, grain futures added back some weather premium. Heading into the close, Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 15¢ higher through May ’25 and Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ‘25. However, Soybean futures were 3¢ to 7¢ lower through Jly ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with pressure including inflation pessimism.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 605 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 55¢ to 68¢ lower  through the front six contracts.

******************************

Emphasizing the quality and consistency of U.S. red meat is the key to expanding the international customer base, according to speakers at the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) Spring Conference in Kansas City.

Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO noted that first-quarter average beef export value of $455 per head of fed slaughter was 9% higher year over year.

“This tells me that the global consumer is willing to pay because they understand the value of U.S. beef,” Halstrom said. “We’re different. We’re higher value, higher perception. U.S. beef is not a commodity product, like a lot of our competitors. This is a key takeaway.”

Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax, echoed these sentiments in explaining how U.S. beef competes for the consumer dollar, both in the U.S. and internationally.

“The biggest change in the beef industry has been quality,” Blach said. “And we can never lose sight of that – our niche is grain-fed, high-quality beef that really nobody else can produce around the globe. Those of you who are producers in the room, you have also invested in genetics and you have gotten paid dividends for those decisions.”

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday, supported by recently stronger cash fed cattle and wholesale beef prices. The next two trading sessions appear to be wild cards as traders position ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report and the three-day weekend.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.07 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $2.29 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in Nebraska to slow on light demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the Kansas at $187/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 85¢ lower Wednesday after noon at $312.17/cwt. Select was $1.26 lower at $299.61/cwt.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher through May ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures 1¢ to 5¢ lower through May ’25. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 11¢ higher through May ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday. Primary pressure appeared to be minutes from the last Fed meeting reaffirming the notion that current inflation will rein back eventual rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 201 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 31 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.08 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Based on feeder and stocker sales reported to the Agricultural Marketing Service, volume is about 6% less year over year for the first 19 weeks of 2024, according to Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University.

“There have been roughly 330,000 fewer feeder and stocker cattle sold at auction so far in 2024 than in the same time period of 2023,” Maples says, in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “Compared to the 5-year average (2018-2022), receipts in 2024 were down 3% (163,000 head) year to date. This dataset includes auction, direct, and video/internet sales that are reported to USDA. It does not capture all feeder and stocker cattle transactions … Thus, it’s not perfect, but comparisons over time can be informative when considering current market dynamics to previous years.” 

Maples notes the percentage of heifer sales so far this year is 43%, mirroring the same period last year.

“Information gleaned from auction receipt totals this fall will be relatively more valuable this year to understand changes in the 2024 calf crop,” Maples says. “Traditionally, the first estimate of the 2024 calf crop would be released in the mid-year USDA Cattle Inventory report. However, USDA-NASS recently announced the mid-year report would be discontinued for budget reasons. They will not be releasing 2024 calf crop estimates until the January 2025 report is released.” 

Cattle futures closed higher Tuesday, supported by steady to stronger wholesale beef values.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.62 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $192/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 32¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $313.02/cwt. Select was $1.52 higher at $300.87/cwt.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Jly ’25 on planting pressure. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 12¢ lower through Jly ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday but to the upside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.08 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Heading into the monthly Cattle on Feed report, analysts expect, on average, April feedlot placements to be about 5% less year over year, April marketings to be about 10% more and the May 1 on-feed number to be approximately 1% less.

“There is a clear understanding of the coming long-term reductions in numbers and beef supplies. This week’s Cattle on Feed report will be interesting in how placements confirm this perspective,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Has the persistent dry weather and poor pasture led to more placements and less heifer holding, thereby delaying the shortfalls but exacerbating their future magnitude?”

While many cast their gaze on placements, marketings may be more telling this time. Even though there were a couple of extra days of production in April compared to last year, packers have been dialing back production to boost wholesale beef values.

Based on federally inspected (FI) fed cattle slaughter data, Koontz does not expect to see a strong April marketing number in this week’s Cattle on Feed report.

“Last month’s Cattle on Feed revealed a large number of cattle on-feed over 150 days, and there will be some reduction but not strong,” Koontz believes. “And FI steer and heifer carcass weights continue to impress. Weights have essentially held steady the last eight to nine weeks. Steers hover above 920 pounds and heifer weights are about 850 pounds. This is another 40 pounds of beef per animal given the normal seasonal decline in weights that should be observed. This is a substantial increase in beef tonnage.”