Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures closed higher Tuesday, supported by last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were $1.96 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.01 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $3 higher in the Southern Plains at mainly $248/cwt., mostly $5 higher in Nebraska at mainly $345 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $244-$245. Dressed delivered prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at $282 and $2-$4 higher at $380-$382 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.01 lower Tuesday afternoon at $364.76/cwt. Select was $1.01 lower at $360.22.

Grain futures were lower Tuesday on resistance.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures, however,  were 1¢ to 4¢ higher on resilient demand.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but to the plus side on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 31 points.Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 46¢ to 64¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected feeder steer prices for this year in the February Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. For Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs. and trading at Oklahoma City, the ERS increased prices $11 in the first quarter to $363/cwt., $8 in the second quarter to $363, $4 in the third quarter to $363 and $6 in the fourth quarter to $368. The annual average price increased $7.25 to $364.25.

ERS analysts explain the weighted-average price for feeder steers of that weight and class selling at Oklahoma National Stockyards was $360.04/cwt. in January, which was $15.50 more month to month. Prices the first week of February were $94 more year over year at $364.51.

“Despite higher-than-expected supplies of cattle available for placement in 2026, based on the January Cattle report, supplies overall remain very tight,” ERS analysts say.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $3 higher in the Southern Plains at mainly $248/cwt., mostly $5 higher in Nebraska at mainly $345 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $244-$245. Dressed delivered prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at $282 and $2-$4 higher at $380-$382 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.30 higher Monday afternoon at $367.77/cwt. Select was $2.19 lower at $361.23.

Futures and equity markets were closed Monday for Presidents Day.

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Industry concentration and consolidation appears to be continuing on the production side of agriculture, according to the USDA’s Farms and Land in Farms 2025 Summary.

The number of farms in the United States for 2025 was estimated at 1,865,000, down 15,000 farms from 2024. The number of farms decreased in all sales classes except the $1,000,000 or more sales class. In 2025, 48.0% of all farms had less than $10,000 in sales and 78.8% of all farms had less than $100,000 in sales. In 2025, 9.9% of all farms had sales of $500,000 or more.

Total land in farms decreased 2,510,000 acres year over year to 873,950,000 acres. The land in farms decreased in all sales classes except the $1,000,000 or more sales class, which increased by 850,000 acres.

In 2025, 25.7% of all farmland was operated by farms with less than $100,000 in sales, while 50.1% of all farmland was operated by farms with sales of $500,000 or more.

The average farm size for 2025 is 469 acres, up from 466 acres the previous year.

Cattle futures eased mostly lower Friday, awaiting full development of the week’s cash fed cattle trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ lower, except for 57¢ higher in spot Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ higher, except for 27¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were mostly $5 higher at mainly $245/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 higher at $380-$382.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $244 and a few dressed trades at $380. Prices there the previous week were $240-$242 and $378, respectively.

Trade was inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices the previous week were mostly $245.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ lower Friday afternoon at $364.47/cwt. Select was 39¢ higher at $363.42. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef was $4.86 lower and Select was $1.11 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 541,000 head was 5,000 head more than the previous week but 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 3.4 million head was 404,000 head fewer (-10.6%) than the same time last year. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 3.1 billion pounds was 285.1 million pounds less (-8.6%).

Book squaring and profit taking ahead of the market’s three-day weekend appeared to be the order of business for Grain and Soybean futures on Friday.  

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed Friday, retaining most of the previous session’s losses but helped by a softer inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in January, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The all items index increased 2.4% over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in January. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, personal care, recreation, medical care and communication. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 48 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 50 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 2¢ to 3¢  through the front six contracts.

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The United States signed a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan last week, which removes non-tariff trade barriers to U.S. red meat exported to Taiwan. U.S. beef gains duty-free access, according to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA).

“Strong, science-based trade agreements are essential to adding value for U.S. cattle producers, and Taiwan has emerged as one of the strongest international markets for U.S. beef,” says NCBA President Gene Copenhaver. “Duty-free access improves competitiveness and provides long-term certainty for producers who depend on export markets to maximize the value of every animal. Foreign markets play a critical role in producer profitability with beef exports accounting for more than $415 per fed cattle processed in 2024.”

More specifically, Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation explains, “Taiwan is the fifth largest market for U.S. beef, with exports valued at about $650 million, and the U.S. is the largest supplier of beef to Taiwan. But there is still potential for further growth with the increased access for all U.S. beef products … The elimination of tariffs on U.S. beef will definitely improve our competitiveness.”

Cattle futures eased lower Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction and more bearish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 13¢ lower to an average of 23¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in one contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $245/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $240/cwt. in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.08 lower Thursday afternoon at $364.84/cwt. Select was 45¢ higher at $363.03.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Thursday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 14¢ to 15¢ higher with likely technical buying. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 12¢ higher, buoyed by positive trade talks with China.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with more investors reportedly concerned about how AI may take away from business rather than add.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 669 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 108 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 469 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.67 to $1.79 lower through the front six contracts.

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La Niña continues to weaken and is expected to dissipate by March, with a transitional phase most likely through spring and early summer, according to Matt Makens atmospheric scientist, who provided the weather outlook during the recent CattleFax Outlook Seminar in Nashville. “We’re watching a classic transition year unfold,” said. “Even as the ocean changes, the atmosphere typically takes four to eight weeks to respond, so weather impacts will lag.”

In the near term, drought risks remain elevated across the Southern U.S. and Central Plains, with a 70% chance of intensification, especially south of I-70 and west of I-35. Spring’s neutral setup may help moisture distribute more evenly, though lingering La Niña effects could still limit precipitation west of I-35.

Summer outcomes hinge on how quickly a potential El Niño develops, Makens explains. A fast forming El Niño could deepen drought in corn growing regions while increasing precipitation in the West, whereas slower development may support more balanced moisture. By fall, El Niño becomes increasingly likely, though global climate factors could still alter its typical impacts.

“El Niño isn’t a guarantee of rain for everyone,” Makens says. “Other global patterns can amplify or mute its influence, so close monitoring remains essential.”

Cattle futures rose Wednesday with expectations of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices again this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.08 higher ($3.45 higher near the front to $1.17 higher at the back). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.11 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $245/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $240/cwt. in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.63 lower Wednesday afternoon at $365.92/cwt. Select was 32¢ lower at $362.58.

Grain and Soybean futures were firmer Wednesday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed on Wednesday despite a more bullish labor outlook than anticipated.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was a touch lower at 4.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 15¢ in January to $37.17. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 36 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 88¢ to $1.01 higher through the front six contracts.

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Farmer sentiment weakened sharply last month, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index dropped 23 points month-to-month to a reading of 113. Increased short-term and long-term pessimism drove the decline. The Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points to 109, while the Future Expectations Index fell 25 points to 115, the lowest level since September 2024.

The survey was conducted Jan. 12-16, coinciding with USDA’s release of the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

“What stands out this month is the growing number of producers who report that higher operating-loan needs stem from carrying over unpaid debt from the previous year,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “That points to increasing financial pressure heading into the year ahead.”

Half of the farmers surveyed indicated that their operations were worse off than a year earlier. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, more producers expect conditions to worsen.

Producers’ broader outlook for the U.S. economy also softened.

When asked whether the U.S. is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track, 62% of respondents said the U.S. was headed in the right direction, down from 75% month earlier.

Cattle futures eased lower Tuesday amid two-sided trade and waiting this week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 55¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.06 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $245/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $240/cwt. in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 21¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $367.55/cwt. Select was $2.45 lower at $362.90.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday in the wake of the latest WASDE report (see below).  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices wobbled on Tuesday, led by tech stocks and pressured by retail stocks with the latest data indicating flat consumer spending. Retail and food service sales in December were virtually unchanged month to month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The 2.4% increase year over year lags inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 52 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 136 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 14¢ to 22¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected five-area direct average fed steer prices for this year, in the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to forecasts the previous month, and based on continued demand strength, the ERS increased prices $6 in the first quarter to $238/cwt., $4 in the second quarter to $238, $3 in the third quarter to $240 and $5 in the fourth quarter to $245. The projected annual average price increased $4 to $240.

Compared to the previous month, the ERS also increased projected beef production for the year by 185 million pounds (0.7%) to 25.7 billion pounds.

“Beef production is raised on higher slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter and slightly heavier dressed weights,” say ERS analysts. “The USDA’s January Cattle report estimated that the 2025 calf crop was lower than the previous year, but as of January 1, more cattle held outside feedlots were available to be placed during the first half of 2026.”

This year’s estimated beef production would be just 81 million pounds less (-0.3%) than last year.

Among other WASDE highlights …

Corn

The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook was for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports were raised 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting sales and shipments to date. With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks were down 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections were unchanged. The season-average soybean price was projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices were unchanged at $295 per short ton and 53¢ per pound, respectively.

Wheat

The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat was for unchanged supplies, modestly lower domestic use, unchanged exports and slightly higher ending stocks. Domestic use was lowered on reduced food use as indicated by the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued on Feb. 2. Ending stocks increased to 931 million bushels, 9% more than last year and the most since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remained at $4.90 per bushel.

Cattle futures mostly extended gains Monday, buoyed by last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 68¢ higher, except for 47¢ lower and unchanged in the back two contracts.  

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 92¢ higher, except for $1.02 lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $5 higher in the Southern Plains at mostly $245/cwt., mainly steady in the Nebraska at $240 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $240-$242. Dressed delivered prices were steady with the top end of the previous week’s range at $378.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $1.87 higher at $241.31. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $1.84 higher at $378.00.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.57 lower Monday afternoon at $367.76/cwt. Select was 82¢ higher at $364.53.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday with likely positioning ahead of Tuesday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally lower to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher on Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 20 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 207 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 82¢ to 89¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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President Trump signed an executive order late last week to temporarily increase the tariff-rate quota for beef imported to the United States from Argentina (from 20,000 to 100,000 metric tons), in a stated effort to make domestic ground beef more affordable. However, it is unlikely to have much impact, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“Imports from Argentina were already exceeding the 20,000-ton limit. It’s not clear how much additional Argentine beef might actually be imported this year,” Peel says.  “Argentina consumes nearly three-quarters of beef production domestically. Of the roughly 24% of beef exported, exports to the U.S. are only about 7% of Argentine beef exports. Increased exports of beef to the U.S. will compete with domestic demand in Argentina, as well as exports to other markets. The impact in the U.S. is likely to be minimal. Beef imports from Argentina would only be about 4% of U.S. imports if the new quota is filled and mostly likely an increase in imports from Argentina will simply displace imports from another country, not changing the total much, if any.”

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, supported by steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices, recovering from the previous session’s sell-off tied to news union workers voted to authorize a strike at the JBS beef packing plant in Greeley, Colo., though no timetable was set for the strike.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.63 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.76 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.87 higher (45¢ higher near the front to $4.00 higher). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.34 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in the North to moderate on good to very good demand in the Southern Plains through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $5 higher in the Southern Plains at mostly $245/cwt., and mainly steady in the North at $240. Dressed delivered prices were steady with the top end of the previous week’s range at $378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.08 higher Friday afternoon at $369.33/cwt. Select was $4.16 higher at $364.53. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.77 higher and Select was $2.59 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 536,000 head was 8,000 head more than the previous week but 47,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 2.9 million head was 382,000 head fewer (-11.7%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 2.6 billion pounds was 276.1 million pounds less (-9.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.  

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through near Aug and then 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Friday as tech stocks recovered from the week’s selloff.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,206 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 133 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 490 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 26¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. cattle producers appear ready and able to begin a new cattle cycle marked by slow expansion, according to CattleFax analysts at the organization’s Outlook Seminar last week in Nashville.

“The U.S. cattle and beef industry enters 2026 with strong but volatile market conditions, as historically tight cattle supplies, record-setting beef demand, and elevated policy and weather uncertainty continue to support prices, even as markets appear to near cyclical highs,” according to Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer. “Tight inventories and exceptional demand remain the dominant forces shaping the market; however, producer demographics, high input costs, and policy uncertainty point to a slow and measured expansion phase.”

Cattle availability will remain constrained in the first half of 2026 due to limited feeder cattle supplies, according to CattleFax. Fed slaughter is projected to decline by 600,000 head, primarily early in the year, and non-fed slaughter is expected to remain historically tight at 5.6 million head. Total commercial beef production is projected to decline again in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. With imports up 5% and exports down 5%, U.S. per-capita beef supplies are forecast 0.2 lbs. larger in 2026 at 59.2 lbs., the largest since 2010.

Cattle and beef prices are forecast to average steady to higher in 2026, with risk increasing later in the year as markets anticipate larger supplies in 2027.

Cow-calf producers are expected to retain the strongest leverage as the cycle turns, supporting continued profitability for several more years. CattleFax forecasts the average 2026 fed steer price at $224/cwt., steady from 2025. All cattle classes are expected to trade higher, with 800-lb. steer prices expected to average $335/cwt., and 550-lb. steer prices averaging $440/cwt. Utility cows are expected to average $155/cwt., with bred cows at an average of $4,000/head.

“As we look ahead, several factors will shape the trajectory of the beef industry. The potential threat of New World Screwworm and the status of Mexican feeder cattle imports is something we’re watching closely,” Murphy says. “At the same time, shifts in packing capacity are rebalancing market leverage. Finally, the dairy industry will continue to be a growth industry supplying more cattle to the beef industry, following strong financial performance in 2025.”

On the other side of the trade, retail beef demand remained historically strong in 2025, with record retail prices supported by steady consumption and exceptional product quality. Consumer preferences continue to favor high-protein, nutrient-dense foods, reinforcing demand even as higher prices move through the supply chain.

“With 84% of fed cattle grading Choice or higher and 12% grading Prime, the industry is well positioned to sustain premium pricing,” says Kevin Good, CattleFax vice president of market analysis. “Beef demand continues to be anchored by exceptional quality and strong consumer confidence in beef as a premium protein. Even as markets adjust and trade flows shift, the fundamentals supporting long-term beef demand remain solid.”

CattleFax expects 2025 USDA all-fresh retail beef prices to average $9.25/pound, however, CattleFax analysts see consumer resistance to further price increases, even as demand is supported by a strong economy, beef quality and dietary focus on protein.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, buoyed by last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices and the friendly Cattle inventory report (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.72 higher. 

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt., which was $4-$6 higher in the Texas Panhandle, $4-$7 higher in Kansas, $4-$6 higher in Nebraska and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt. 

Dressed delivered prices were $375-$378, which was $5-$8 higher in Nebraska and $8-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Last week’s five-area direct weekly weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $4.74 higher at $239.44. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $7.36 higher at $376.16.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.65 higher Monday afternoon at $368.21/cwt. Select was $2.97 higher at $364.91.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Monday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 9¢ to 10¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Monday with earnings bets for the week and the turn of the calendar.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 515 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 37 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 130 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.65 to $2.84 lower through the front six contracts.

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As expected, markets views Friday’s USDA Cattle inventory report as friendly, with beef cows 1.0% less year over year.

“Nearly all inventory categories were down year over year, including the all cattle and calves total, down 0.4% compared to last year,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “The 2025 calf crop was smaller than earlier projections at 32.9 million head, the smallest since 1941.”

There were 41,700 more (0.9%) beef replacement heifers at the beginning of this year compared to last.  However, Peel explains the increase it too little to suggest herd growth. If anything, he says it indicates stabilization of the herd at current levels in anticipation of potential future growth. 

“Little, if any, beef cow herd growth is possible in 2026. It will depend on beef cow slaughter and herd culling,” Peel says. “Beef cow slaughter decreased 40.5% in three years from 2022-2025, leading to a net culling rate of 8.4% in 2025. This low culling rate means that older cows will need to be culled going forward. Beef cow slaughter is expected to stabilize or perhaps increase some in 2026. That means that the slight increase in beef replacement heifers will be needed just to maintain the current herd or, at most, increase fractionally in 2026.”

Cattle futures closed lower at the end of a volatile session Friday. Although cash fed cattle prices improved, wariness remained ahead of the semiannual Cattle inventory report (see below), while traders squared books for end of the week and month.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.11 lower (47¢ to $2.57 lower), except for 35¢ higher in spot Feb. 

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.66 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.14 lower (12¢ to $1.75 lower) except for 95¢ higher in spot Feb. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 78¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in new spot Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate to active on good demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt., which was $4-$6 higher in the Texas Panhandle, $4-$7 higher in Kansas, $4-$6 higher in Nebraska and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt. 

Dressed delivered prices were $375-$378, which was $5-$8 higher in Nebraska and $8-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 lower Friday afternoon at $365.56/cwt. Select was $1.22 higher at $361.94. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.36 lower and Select was 45¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 531,000 head was 4,000 head fewer than the previous week and 71,000 head fewer than the same week last year as packers slow production. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 2.3 million head was 337,000 head fewer (-12.6%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 2.1 billion pounds was 244.8 million pounds less (-10.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Friday with likely profit taking and month-end position squaring.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower through Jly ‘27. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, with investors squaring books for the end of the month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 223 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 19¢ to 27¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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All told, markets will likely view the semiannual Cattle report as neutral to a touch friendly, confirming that beef replacement heifer retention remains sluggish, while the beef cow herd begins the year even smaller.

Beef cows numbered 27.6 million head Jan. 1, which was 284,800 fewer (-1.0%) than a year earlier. Moreover, the beef cow inventory was steady to less year over year in all states with 1 million or more (in order by total head): Texas (-1%); Oklahoma (steady); Missouri (-3%); Nebraska (-1%); South Dakota (steady); Montana (-2%); Kansas (-7%).

Heifers for beef cow replacement of 4.7 million head were 41,700 head more (0.9%) year over year. Year-over-year inventory increased in Texas (8.3%), Oklahoma (1.5%), Nebraska (1.8%) and Montana (1.6%). Replacement inventory remained unchanged in Oklahoma and South Dakota but declined 3.8% in Missouri.

Milk cows of 9.6 million head were 187,500 head more (2%) than the same time last year.

All cattle and calves of 86.2 million head were 316,900 head fewer (-0.3%) year over year.

The number of cattle outside feedlots was 24.5 million head, which was 218,600 head more (0.9%) than a year earlier.