Daily Market Highlights

Queasiness about political intent for the cattle markets and wonderments about resumption of cattle imports from Mexico pressured Cattle futures on Tuesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.25 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.09 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235-$236/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$237 in Kansas, $228-$232 in Nebraska and mostly $230 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $358-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.67 lower Tuesday afternoon at $377.58/cwt. Select was $1.32 higher at $361.25.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower on Tuesday with pressure likely including farmer selling and profit taking from recent gains.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 14¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower on Tuesday, led by tech stocks, especially those related to artificial intelligence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 251 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 80 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 486 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 45¢ to 70¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural sentiment improved slightly in October, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB). The overall index rose 3 points from the previous month to a reading of 129. The Index of Current Conditions fueled the increase, climbing 8 points to 130. The Index of Future Expectations was virtually unchanged at 129.

AEB analysts say producers’ appraisal of current conditions depict a tale of two economies. Livestock producers remain optimistic, partly supported by record-high profitability in the beef sector. However, crop producers report a more pessimistic view of the current situation due to low profit margins across major crop enterprises.

Similarly, Crop producers expect their financial performance to fall well below that of a year ago, while livestock producers anticipate results similar to the previous year. The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped to 78 in October, 10 points lower than in September.

“U.S. farmers are adjusting to ongoing economic pressures in different ways,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Livestock producers are seeing strong returns and remain optimistic, while many crop producers are contemplating management changes for 2026 to help cope with tighter margins.”

Policy uncertainty continues to influence producer sentiment. In October, 58% of producers said they expect increased use of tariffs by the U.S. to strengthen the agricultural economy, up from September but still below the 70% reported in April and May. Meanwhile, 16% of respondents said they were uncertain about the impact of tariff policies on the agricultural economy, double that of both April and May. Despite this uncertainty, roughly 70% of producers said they believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction.

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey took place Oct. 13-17.

Fundamentals appeared to return to Cattle futures trade Monday as prices gained back some of the recent losses.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.34 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.36 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $235-$236/cwt. in a light test, $1-$3 lower in Kansas at $235-$237 in a light test, $7 lower in Nebraska at $228-$232 and $5-$9 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $230. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $10-$12 lower at $358-$360.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $7.03 lower at $230.86. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $10.76 lower at $358.54.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.12 higher Monday afternoon at $379.25/cwt. Select was $1.28 higher at $359.93.

Soybean futures gained again Monday, riding the coattails of last week’s announced trade framework between the United States and China. Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Soybean futures were 14¢ to 20¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 13¢ higher with chatter about potential Chinese business.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Monday, with the most support from AI stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 226 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 109 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed unchanged to 22¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Given extreme volatility in cattle markets the past couple of weeks, tied to political statement and proposals aimed at reducing domestic consumer retail beef prices, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University emphasizes the importance of remembering that underlying fundamentals remain unchanged.

“What is clear is that uncertainty and volatility from political comments and rhetoric have a very real negative impact on producers and consumers,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. He notes feeder cattle value declined $200-$300 per head in Oklahoma auctions last week. 

“The federal government’s demonstrated willingness to meddle in cattle and beef markets and interfere with markets doing what they do so well likely means that the industry will continue to deal with debilitating uncertainty and volatility,” Peel says. “The most likely outcome is that it will keep cattle producers and lenders cautious and further delay the lengthy process of herd rebuilding, which already looks to extend nearly to the end of the decade.” He adds that the trajectory and price expectations for the next two to four years have not changed.

Heightened volatility and uncertainty tied to lingering wonderments about President Trump’s stated goal to reduce beef prices capped recent gains in Cattle futures on Friday. Month-end position squaring was likely also at play.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.99 lower, except for $1.32 higher in expiring spot Oct. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $5.75 lower, except for $2.85 higher in expiring spot Oct. They were an average $10.37 lower the previous week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.08 lower, from 2¢ lower in expiring Oct to $2.95 lower. Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $16.31 lower. They were an average of $38.40 lower over the past two weeks.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Nebraska at $232.00/cwt. and some in the western Corn Belt at $230.

For the week, FOB live prices were mostly $230/cwt. in the North and dressed delivered trades in Nebraska were $355-$360.

FOB live prices in the Southern Plains the previous week were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ lower Friday afternoon at $378.13/cwt. Select was 87¢ lowerat $358.65.

Soybean futures gained further Friday on the recently announced trade framework between the United States and China, which includes minimum U.S. soybean exports to China. They closed mostly 8¢ to 10¢ higher through Mar ‘27.

Corn futures were unchanged to 1¢ higher through Jly ’26 and then mostly fractionally lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 11¢ higher through Sep ’26 and then mostly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 40 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 143 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 15¢ to 41¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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President Trump’s recent comments about reducing beef prices and chatter about importing more beef from Argentina continued to play havoc in cattle markets last week, sinking cattle futures for a second consecutive week and hammering cash prices for calves and feeder cattle. Nationwide, trend of $30-$40/cwt. declines were common at weekly auctions.

“These comments have quickly ambushed the American cattle producer with their unintended consequences,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “As it relates to reducing beef prices domestically, the President is really only talking about ground beef. Nearly every ounce of imported beef is lean grinding beef except for some muscle cuts coming from Canada. This means that more beef imports would really only influence ground beef prices if they impact anything at all. In fact, the lean grinding beef is needed to mix with trimmings and fat from domestically produced finished cattle, because it adds value to the fat and whole carcass. One person’s opinion is that fundamentals will rule the day. It will take a little time to determine if that is the case or not.”

Cattle futures mostly crawled higher Thursday as traders await further direction from this week’s negotiated cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 70¢ higher (from 2¢ higher to $4.10 higher in waning spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher, except for an average of 40¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades $235-$235.50/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was inactive on light to moderate demand.

So far this week, FOB live prices are mostly $230/cwt. in the North and dressed delivered trades in Nebraska are $355-$360.

Last week, FOB live prices in the Southern Plains were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.11 lower Thursday afternoon at $378.27/cwt. Select was $2.27 lower at $359.52.

Soybean futures gained Thursday with an announced trade truce between the United States and China, albeit a deal with few details provided.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Soybean futures were 7¢ to 12¢ higher. Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 109 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 68 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 377 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 21¢ to 35¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Hopefully, Feeder Cattle futures finally found a bottom from the recent plunge on Wednesday, as traders pressed prices significantly higher Wednesday, helped along by Live Cattle futures, as well as no timeline for resuming cattle imports from Mexico, which some had feared.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $5.33 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.57 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are mostly $230/cwt. in the North and dressed delivered trades in Nebraska are $355-$360.

Last week, FOB live prices in the Southern Plains were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.73 higher Wednesday afternoon at $381.28/cwt. Select was $1.79 higher at $361.79.

Profit taking from recent gains seemed to be the order of the day in the grain complex on Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat mixed, from 1¢ lower to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday. While the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, as widely anticipated, investors soured on suggestions from the central bank that it might not cut rates again this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 74 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 130 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 21¢ to 24¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Live Cattle futures firmed and mostly gained Tuesday, while Feeder Cattle futures continued to unwind with long position liquidation.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ higher, except for an average of 54¢ lower in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.61 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on light to moderate demand elsewhere through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Nebraska at $228-$230/cwt.

Established FOB live prices so far this week are $230 in the North with dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $355-$360.

Last week, FOB live prices in the Southern Plains were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.77 higher Tuesday afternoon at $379.65/cwt. Select was $1.66 lower at $360.00.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher again Tuesday on speculation the U.S. will ink a deal with China.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks and supported by positive quarterly corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 161 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 190 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 54¢ to $1.16 lower through the front six contracts.

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There was no October monthly Cattle on Feed report, which was supposed to be published last Friday but wasn’t due to the government shutdown. However, analysts did release pre-report estimates.

On average, analysts pegged the Oct. 1 cattle on feed inventory to be 1.9% less year over year, roughly 11.38 million head, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

Analysts estimated September feedlot placements at about 1.97 million head which would be 8.6% less year over year. Projected September marketings were approximately 1.63 million head, about 0.4% less year over year.

LMIC analysts point out the October report would have shed some light on the quarterly mix of steers and heifers on feed.

“This is not a value forecasted and published among pre-report estimates,” LMIC analysts explain, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The last time this value was published was in the July report, which at the time had the contribution of steers-to-heifers at about 1.6 steers to every heifer on feed. For context, since roughly 2019, this ratio ranged between 1.5 to 1.7 steers per heifer, which is very low compared to the last two decades.

“During the last major trough and expansion event from early 2012 to mid-2015, the ratio moved from 1.6 to over 2.2 steers per heifer. Recently, minor reductions in heifers on feed have occurred, but uncertainty will remain without this data.”

Cattle futures continued to plunge lower Monday, fueled by uncertainty created by the federal government’s attempts to lower domestic consumer beef prices (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $9.14 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $13.22 lower, limit down, except for $9.025 lower in spot Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on Moderate demand in the North through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $230/cwt., which was $5-$9 lower in Nebraska and $5-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $9-$10 lower at $358-$360. Last week, dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $372.

Last week, FOB prices in the Texas Panhandle were $2 lower than the previous week at $238.

The five-area weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $1.93 lower at $237.87/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $3.13 lower at $369.30.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.12 higher Monday afternoon at $377.88/cwt. Select was $3.69 higher at $361.66.

Soybean futures led the grain complex higher Monday on speculation the U.S. will ink a deal with China.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 18¢ to 24¢ higher. Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat 13¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices climbed higher Monday, supported by growing expectations of a trade deal with China and the Fed cutting interest rates at this week’s meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 337 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 83 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 432 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 5¢ to 18¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Increasing market uncertainty and volatility, tied mostly to threats and rumors of government intervention to lower domestic consumer beef prices continue to cast a pall over markets.

“There are certainly policy changes that can be made to support an increase in domestic beef production,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee in his weekly market comments. “However, none of those policy changes will result in a short-run change to beef and cattle prices.”

For instance, Griffith notes policy can be changed to reduce the barriers to importing more beef, but he explains nearly all of that beef will be lean grinding beef.

“Thus, it may marginally result in a decrease in the cost of ground beef, but consumers will not know the difference,” Griffith says. “Increasing imports is not going to change the price of high-valued cuts such as steaks or other muscle cuts.”

Cattle futures, continued to firm Tuesday and gain back from last Friday’s sharp losses.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt. in all regions, which was $5 higher in Kansas, $5-$6 higher in Nebraska, $5 higher in the western Corn Belt, and compared to two weeks earlier, $7 higher in the Texas Panhandle.

Dressed delivered prices were $10 higher in Nebraska at $372 and $10-$10.50 higher in the western Corn Belt at $372-$372.50.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.75 higher Tuesday afternoon at $371.93/cwt. Select was 89¢ lower at $352.57.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with chart resistance.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 218 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was down 36 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 14¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures melted down Friday on President Trump’s widely reported and vague comments that the White House plans to lower beef prices. Algorithmic trading likely drove the selloff deeper and faster than would have otherwise been the case. Fundamentally speaking and guided by history, government intervention in cattle and beef markets has never been favorable to producers.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $6.50 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.08 lower — limit down in all but the front contract.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $2.59 lower, except for $1.78 higher in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.86 lower, from 80¢ lower in the back contract to $4.20 lower toward the front.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt. in all regions, which was $5 higher in Kansas, $5-$6 higher in Nebraska, $5 higher in the western Corn Belt, and compared to two weeks earlier, $7 higher in the Texas Panhandle.

Dressed delivered prices were $10 higher in Nebraska at $372 and $10-$10.50 higher in the western Corn Belt at $372-$372.50.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 66¢ higher Friday afternoon at $366.77/cwt. Select was $1.34 higher at $350.27.

Technical support continued to underpin Grain and Soybean futures Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher through Mar ’27 and then fractionally higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, helped along by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, at least for the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 117 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 8¢ to 39¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Closure of the federal government, except for what are deemed essential services, is soon to enter the fourth week. Although USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service continues to provide many daily reports utilized by cattle producers, much other pertinent information remains unavailable. For instance, the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates have already fallen victim. The monthly Cattle on Feed report was supposed to be published next Friday.

“Market data and information are critical to modern agricultural industry functions – you can’t manage (or assess) what you don’t measure,” says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Most livestock producers are what economists would describe as price takers,” Tonsor explains. “The available set of market data and information for livestock sellers has long been justification for public investment in collection and reporting efforts by USDA (and other governmental agencies). Over the past couple decades this evolution has included implementation of LMR (livestock mandatory reporting) extending the breadth, depth, and precision of market information in meat and livestock markets.”

At the same time, Tonsor notes ongoing discussions about the value of public data, its cost and net return. He mentions one of the few efforts made to determine those answers relative to USDA data. It was a project conducted by the Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics. Jayson Lusk, agricultural economist, led the project. He is now vice president and dean of agricultural programs at Oklahoma State University. From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Productsreports the findings.

“One of the earliest and most robust findings from the field of experimental economics is that public knowledge of prices is a key factor driving whether a market attains competitive equilibrium (Davis and Holt, 1993),” according to the report. “Market participants often see public sources of data as more objective and credible than private data. Added credibility gives market participants confidence in using public data as the basis of trade (for example, as the base in a formula contract) or forecasting, without fear of that the data has been manipulated by the provider.”

Of course, that’s a mere sliver of the research analyzed in the report.

“For decades U.S. agriculture has been the envy of the world regarding available volume and quality of market information,” Tonsor says. “While I would say that broadly still applies, it is very easy to take that for granted.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in the North to inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales in Nebraska at $240/cwt. and in the western Corn Belt at $238-$240.

Last week, FOB live prices were $235 in Kansas, $234-$235 in Nebraska and mainly $235 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $362.

FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $233.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $366.11/cwt. Select was 23¢ lower at $348.93.

Cattle futures rose Thursday with the promise of higher cash fed cattle prices for the week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.23 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 higher, except for 5¢ lower in spot Oct.

Then came President Trump’s widely reported and nebulous comments that the White House had a plan to lower beef prices soon. Through mid-day today, Live Cattle futures were an average of $6.16 lower and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.06 lower — limit down in all but one contract.

Grain and Soybean futures firmed Thursday with technical support and positive chatter about trade talk with China.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed fractionally mixed to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ higher through Mar ‘27.