Daily Market Highlights

So far this week, fed cattle prices are steady to $2 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in the Southern Plains and the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Prices in the Southern Plains were at $140/cwt., which was steady with the prior day but $2 lower than last week.

Although too few to trend, there were a few live sales in the western Corn Belt at $138-$140 and a few in the beef at $220. Prices there last week were $140 and $220, respectively.

Trade in Nebraska was slow on moderate demand. Dressed prices were steady with last week at $220. Although too few to trend, there were some live trades at $138-$140, compared to $140 last week.

Trade in Colorado was mostly inactive on very light demand. Live prices last week were $142.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 44¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $264.55/cwt. Select was $1.41 lower at $251.68.

Cattle futures softened amid the subdued cash trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 55¢ lower, except for 67¢ higher in spot Jan.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ higher through near Jly and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Thursday amid some likely retrenching and despite positive employment news.

Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Dec. 4 were 184,000, which was 43,000 less than the previous week and the least since Sept. 6, 1969.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally lower. The S&P 500 closed 33 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 269 points.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the fed cattle price forecasts for this year and next year based on current price strength and expectations of continued demand strength.

In the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, ERS forecast this year’s annual average five-area direct fed steer price $1.25 higher than last month at $122.56/cwt. Next year’s average price was projected $5 higher than the previous month at $135. Prices were forecast at $138 in the first quarter, $134 in the second quarter and $132 in the third quarter.

Corn

The 2021-22 U.S. corn supply use and outlook was unchanged, as was the projected season-average price of $5.45/bu.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supply use and outlook was unchanged, but soybean oil production was raised on a higher extraction rate.

The 2021-22 U.S. season-average soybean and soybean oil price forecasts were unchanged at $12.10/bu. and 65¢/lb., respectively. Soybean meal price was projected $5 higher $330/short ton.

Wheat

The outlook for 2021-22 U.S. wheat was for slightly lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports and higher ending stocks.

The projected season-average farm price was raised 15¢/bu. to $7.05 on current NASS prices and expected cash and futures prices for the remainder of 2021-22. That would be the highest season-average farm price since 2012-13.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $142/cwt. in the Southern Plains and Colorado; $140 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $220.

The lack of cash direction and lower wholesale beef prices helped pressure Live Cattle futures. They closed an average of 45¢ lower.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.92 lower Wednesday afternoon at $264.11/cwt. Select was $2.59 lower at $253.09.

Feeder Cattle futures stepped lower amid lackluster trade and the absence of cash direction. They closed an average of $1.45 lower.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally mixed as traders readied for Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices mainly edged higher Wednesday, as investors appeared to be waiting for more direction from the weekly jobless claims report Thursday and the next read on inflation Friday, in the monthly Consumer Price Index report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 35 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 100 points.

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U.S. beef export value soared in October, up 48% year over year to $956.9 million, the second highest monthly level on record, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef export volume was 7.5% more at 115,709 metric tons (mt).

Through the first 10 months of the year, beef export volume totaled 1.19 million mt, up 17% from a year ago. Export value increased 38% to $8.53 billion, surpassing the full-year record of $8.33 billion established in 2018.

Beef export value per head of fed slaughter equated to $439.46 in October, up 55% from a year ago. The January-October average was $394.14, up 34%.

U.S. pork exports were 7% less year over year in October at 226,206 mt  while export value slipped 3.5% to $618.8 million. For January through October, pork exports were slightly higher than the same period last year for volume. Pork export value was 8% higher at $6.84 billion.

“USMEF has always prioritized market diversification, and this is more critical than ever now that the red meat industry faces unprecedented transportation challenges and rising input costs,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “Exports (U.S. red meat) will likely reach about $18 billion in 2021, which is a remarkable achievement. While global demand is tremendous and we are cautiously optimistic about further growth in 2022, supply chain pressures are not easy to overcome and are a growing concern for exporters and their international customers.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to mostly inactive on very light demand through Tuesday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $142/cwt. in the Southern Plains and Colorado; $140 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $220.

Cattle futures drifted amid lackluster trading interest Tuesday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 19¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in spot Dec.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 56¢ lower (22¢ lower in spot Jan to $1.17 lower in the back contract).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.50 lower Tuesday afternoon at $268.03/cwt. Select was $2.17 lower at $255.68.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 11¢ lower through the front five contracts and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains decisively Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 492 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 95 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 461 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $2.40 to $2.56 higher through the front six contracts; about $5.00 higher in the past two sessions.

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Agricultural producer sentiment is declining as production costs increase, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Month to month, the Ag Economy Barometer slipped 5 points to 116 in November with pessimism increasing for both current and future conditions. The Index of Current Conditions declined 7 points in November to a reading of 128 and the Index of Future Expectations fell 4 points to 110. All three measures were the lowest for this year.

“Farmers are facing sharp rises in production costs coinciding with fluctuating crop and livestock prices, the prospect of changing environmental and tax policy, uncertainty over COVID-19, as well as a host of other issues, all of which are negatively impacting farmer sentiment” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

In November, 43% of survey respondents said they expect farm input prices to rise by more than 16% in the upcoming year. This compares with the actual average rate of farm input price inflation over the past decade of less than 2%.

Somewhat surprisingly, given the concerns about rising input costs, 52% of corn/soybean producers expect cash rental rates to rise in 2022, compared to 43% in October. This marks the highest percentage of producers reporting that they expect rental rates in 2022 to rise since the May 2021 survey.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to mostly inactive on very light demand through Monday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $142/cwt. in the Southern Plains and Colorado; $140 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $220.

Cattle futures closed mostly higher Monday, buoyed by higher outside markets, recently stronger cash prices and prospects of higher money this week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 91¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 40¢ higher, except for an average of 13¢ lower in two contracts toward the back.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.83 lower Monday afternoon at $272.53/cwt. Select was 79¢ lower at $257.85.

Corn futures closed mainly fractionally lower to mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 5¢ lower through the front six contracts and then mostly unchanged to fractionally mixed.

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Investors started the week, apparently unafraid of the new COVID variant’s impact on the global economy. According to various reports, on Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said preliminary reports suggest omicron is less severe than the preceding delta variant. Major U.S. financial indices rocketed higher Monday

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 646 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 53 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 139 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $2.95 to $3.23 higher through the front six contracts.

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“Drought in the wintertime is generally not a major cattle market issue with limited exceptions, such as the winter wheat crop (winter wheat grazing). However, the extent and level of drought in the U.S. at this time is troubling because of the potential for drought to extend into the next growing season, at least in some regions,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. 

Peel points out dry conditions have lingered in some areas since last year.

“Many beef cattle operations have already made significant adjustments and will have very little flexibility if the current drought extends into 2022. This could result in another severe round of cow liquidation in the first half of next year,” Peel says. “A decade ago, severe drought caused the unplanned liquidation of some 2 million beef cows and affected cattle markets for several years, arguably up to the current time. It is possible it could happen again.”

Based on the U.S. Drought Monitor at the end of November, 69% of the U.S. was abnormally dry or worse with more than 53% in some degree of drought (D1-D4). At the same time last year, 67% of the nation was abnormally dry or worse and 48% was in some degree of drought.

“Beef cow slaughter is up 8.6% for the year to date and includes some drought liquidation but from exactly where is unclear,” Peel says.

He created an ad-hoc index that incorporates the Drought Severity and Coverage Index, as well as the number of beef cows in the West and High Plains regions where current drought has ben most severe. With drought impacts heavily weighted, Peel says the index suggests the most significant impact on the U.S. beef cow herd this year came from North Dakota, Montana, California and South Dakota.

“The annual Cattle report, due out Jan. 31, 2022, will reveal exactly where and how much beef cow inventories changed along with other cattle inventory data,” Peel says.

Widely volatile outside markets, stemming from worries about the potential impact of the new COVID variant (omicron), pressured Cattle futures last week, despite another solid gain in cash prices. Yet, buoyant cash prices and fundamental strength continued to provide optimism.

For the week, negotiated cash fed cattle prices were $2 higher on a live basis at $142/cwt. in the Southern Plains and Colorado. They were steady to $4 higher in Nebraska at $140 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $140. Dressed prices were $3 higher in Nebraska at $220; $3-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $220.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 676,000 head was 110,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week and 7,000 more than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 30.8 million head was 872,000 head more (+2.9%) than the same period last year. Estimated total year-to-date beef production of 25.52 billion lbs. was 610.9 million lbs. more (+2.5%) than a year earlier.

“Fed cattle prices have increased nearly $18/cwt. since the first week of October. Compare that to October 2020 when it took until the first week of April for the market price to increase $18 and reach the spring price peak,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Cattle feeders should be satisfied with the way prices have been moving the past two months, but upside potential looks to be minimal moving from today through the spring. In other words, the market may hold its own the next several weeks or months, but pushing much higher will be a challenge. There should be price support moving into the spring as demand will seasonally increase exiting the winter. However, the market has probably already experienced it largest gains from fall to spring.”

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 36¢ lower on Friday, except for 2¢ higher in spot Dec. Week to week, they closed an average of 95¢ lower week to week on Friday (10¢ to $2.25 lower) except for 12¢ higher in away Dec.

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Calf and feeder cattle prices last week were mainly higher to sharply higher, based on weekly auctions monitored by Cattle Current.

“…demand remains strong while buyers are trying to make quick work of purchasing cattle as there is an expectation that prices will continue strengthening,” Griffith says. “There is no doubt a fire has been lit under the cattle markets as calf prices are following feeder cattle prices and feeder cattle prices are following finished cattle prices.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.18 lower on Friday, amid some likely profit taking from the previous day’s session as well as week-end positioning. Week to week, though, they closed broadly mixed, from an average of $1.31 lower in the front three contracts (2¢ to $3.02 lower) to an average of 54¢ higher (20¢ to $1.07 higher).

The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $3.63 higher week to week on Friday at $161.58.

After fractionally lower in spot Dec, Corn futures closed an average of 9.5¢ lower in the next five contracts week to week on Friday.

Week to week on Friday, Soybean futures closed an average of 11.2¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Wholesale beef prices continued lower last week, although there could be another holiday bump or two along the way.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.65 lower week to week on Friday at $274.36/cwt. Select was $3.64 lower at $258.64. Steer byproduct value declined 72¢ to $14.24/cwt., with likely pressure from global economic concerns related to the new COVID variant.

Despite the sizable price decline in boxed beef prices since the last week of August, and the increase in fed cattle prices, Griffith says packer profitability remains strong.

“There is no reason at this time to expect beef demand to soften, which should continue supporting wholesale beef prices and the cattle complex,” Griffith says. “There may still be a little more holiday buying that needs to take place, but most holiday purchases will have been completed at this point. The expectation moving forward will be for a strong restocking of the beef counter following consumer holiday purchasing and some of the focus shifting from middle meats to end cuts as winter establishes a hold on the market.”

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Volatility continued in equity markets Friday. Besides the seesawing uncertainty through the week, tied to the COVID variant, pressure came from significantly fewer new jobs than the trade expected.

Employment increased 210,000 from October to November, according to the Employment Situation Summary from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average hourly earnings increased by 8¢ to $31.03.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 59 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 38 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 295 points.

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Supply chain disruptions and inflation continue helping propel fertilizer prices to record and near-record highs.

“According to the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Illinois Production Cost Report (a bi-weekly report) the average price for anhydrous ammonia last week was $1,434.38/ton, the highest on record according to data going back to 2008 and a more than three-fold increase from the same week a year ago,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Since the start of the year, anhydrous ammonia prices have increased 186.5% or $934 per ton, and since late-September prices have jumped 82.0% or $646.”

Although less drastic, price increases for other fertilizer prices are steep, too.

Citing the AMS report, compared to a year earlier, LMIC analysts say the average price for urea (46-0-0) jumped 155% ($557) to $915/ton, liquid nitrogen (28% spread) is up 166% ($351) to $564 per ton, and potash is 127% ($439) higher at $785 per ton. Diesel prices are 60% higher at $2.87/gal.

“Depending on how fertilizer prices react in the coming months may drive producer decisions on how many corn and soybean acres to plant,” LMIC analysts say. “Producers are likely to actively consider ways to minimize fertilizer costs, which will include crop planting decisions. Extension educators have been recommending producers have soil tests conducted to determine if fertilizer is needed and plan application needs as necessary.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices took another step higher Thursday.

Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $142/cwt., steady to $4 higher in Nebraska at $140 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $140. Dressed trade in Nebraska was $3 higher at $220.

Last week, live prices in Colorado were $140 and dressed prices in the western Corn Belt were $213-$217.

Cattle futures, especially font-month Live Cattle, gained Thursday with the stronger cash prices. They closed an average of 71¢ higher, from $1.65 higher in spot Dec to 7¢ higher in the back contract.

The weekly U.S. Export Sales report added support. For the week ending Nov. 25, net U.S. beef export sales (2021) of 21,600 metric tons were 12% more than the previous week and 5% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, China, Japan, Mexico, and Chile.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 higher Thursday afternoon at $272.02/cwt. Select was 28¢ higher at $258.25.

Feeder Cattle gains were capped by stronger Corn futures prices. They closed an average of 36¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in spot Jan.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 6¢ higher in the front five contracts and then fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 16¢ higher in the front five contracts and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Volatile major U.S. financial indices reversed course and closed sharply higher, putting a sizable dent into the previous day’s losses. There was little news to push them good or bad.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 617 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 64 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 127 points.

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The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) ordered nine large retailers, wholesalers, and consumer good suppliers to provide detailed information that will help the FTC shed light on the causes behind ongoing supply chain disruptions and how these disruptions are causing serious and ongoing hardships for consumers and harming competition in the U.S. economy.

“Supply chain disruptions are upending the provision and delivery of a wide array of goods, ranging from computer chips and medicines to meat and lumber. I am hopeful the FTC’s new study will shed light on market conditions and business practices that may have worsened these disruptions or led to asymmetric effects,” says FTC Chair Lina M. Khan. “The FTC has a long history of pursuing market studies to deepen our understanding of economic conditions and business conduct, and we should continue to make nimble and timely use of these information-gathering tools and authorities.”

The FTC is issuing the orders under Section 6(b) of the FTC Act, which authorizes the Commission to conduct wide-ranging studies that do not have a specific law enforcement purpose. The orders are being sent to Walmart Inc., Amazon.com, Inc., Kroger Co., C&S Wholesale Grocers, Inc., Associated Wholesale Grocers, Inc., McLane Co, Inc. Procter & Gamble Co., Tyson Foods, Inc., and Kraft Heinz Co. The companies will have 45 days from the date they received the order to respond.

In addition to better understanding the reasons behind the disruptions, the study will examine whether supply chain disruptions are leading to specific bottlenecks, shortages, anticompetitive practices, or contributing to rising consumer prices.

The orders require the companies to detail the primary factors disrupting their ability to obtain, transport and distribute their products; the impact these disruptions are having in terms of delayed and canceled orders, increased costs and prices; the products, suppliers and inputs most affected; and the steps the companies are taking to alleviate disruptions; and how they allocate products among their stores when they are in short supply.

The early-day rebound in equity markets, as well as positive supply fundamentals helped Cattle futures regain some recently lost ground Wednesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.39 higher (97¢ higher at the front to $1.77 higher at the back of the board).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 74¢ higher, from 12¢ higher in spot Dec to $1.12 higher.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ higher in the front three contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 11¢ higher through Jan ’23 and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were at $140/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $136-$140 in Nebraska, $140 in Colorado and $135-$140 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was at $217 in Nebraska and at $213-$217 in the western Corn Belt. 

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.46 lower Wednesday afternoon at $270.22/cwt. Select was $2.32 lower at $257.97/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices started Wednesday’s session paring losses, but announcement of the first confirmed case of the new COVID variant (Omicron) in the U.S. took them sharply lower by the end of the day.

Positive news helping bolster stocks prior to the announcement included more jobs than expected in the ADP National Employment Report. Private sector employment increased by 540,000 from October to November.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 461 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 53 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 283 points.

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Global economic recovery is continuing but its momentum has eased and is becoming increasingly imbalanced according to the latest Economic Outlook from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

“The strong rebound we have seen is now easing and supply bottlenecks, rising inflation, and the continuing impact of the pandemic are clouding the horizon,” says OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. “The risks and uncertainties are large, as is being seen with the emergence of the Omicron variant, aggravating the imbalances and threatening the recovery. Keeping the recovery strong and on track will entail addressing a number of imbalances, but above all it will mean managing the health crisis through better international coordination, improving health systems and massively stepping up vaccination programs worldwide.”

OECD projects real global GDP growth at 5.6% this year, 4.5% next year and 3.2% in 2023.

For the U.S., OECD projects real GDP at 5.6% this year, 3.7% next year and 2.4% in 2023.

Among the key points in the OECD Economic Outlook:

Surging demand for goods since economies reopened, and the failure of supply to keep pace, generated bottlenecks in production chains. Labor shortages, pandemic-related closures, rising energy and commodity prices, and a scarcity of some key materials are all holding back growth and adding to cost pressures. Inflation has increased significantly in some regions.

Alongside cost pressures from manufacturing supply bottlenecks and food price increases, imbalances in the energy market are a key factor driving up inflation in all economies. Gas prices have risen sharply, notably in Europe, and risks are high, with storage levels around 28% lower than they would normally be at this time of the year. Rising food and energy costs are inevitably hitting low-income households the hardest.  

Inflationary pressures are proving stronger and more persistent than expected a few months ago. Consumer price inflation in the OECD is now projected to start fading in 2022, before moderating as key bottlenecks ease, capacity expands, more people return to the labor force and demand rebalances. The Outlook underlines the risk that continued supply disruptions, perhaps associated with further waves of COVID-19 infections, may result in longer and higher inflationary pressure.

Another risk, exposed by the emergence of the Omicron variant in recent days, is a worsening health situation due to COVID-19 resulting in further restrictions that would jeopardize the recovery. Ensuring improved access to vaccines for all must be an urgent policy priority, according to the report. A faster, better coordinated, worldwide vaccine roll-out is not only essential for saving lives and preventing the emergence of new variants, but would also help tackle some of the bottlenecks undermining the strength of the recovery by allowing factories, ports and borders to re-open fully.

A potential sharp slowdown in China, if activity in the property market declined abruptly amid concerns about the financial soundness of some of the largest real estate developers, could also disrupt the global recovery. The impact of such a slowdown would spread rapidly to other countries, particularly if it generated uncertainty in global financial markets and added to the current bottlenecks in supply.

Cattle futures, especially Live Cattle lost some steam Tuesday. While technical correction and month-end position squaring were likely behind some of the pressure, most commodities followed the sharp drop in equity markets, which were tied to uncertainty about the Covid variant, Omicron, and its potential economic impact.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 60¢ higher (17¢ to $1.00 higher), except for an average of 46¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower, from 12¢ lower toward the back to $1.45 lower toward the front of the board.

Corn futures closed 12¢ to 15¢ lower through the front five contracts and then mostly 8¢ to 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 27¢ lower through the front seven contracts and then mostly 10¢ to 18¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited to mostly inactive on light demand through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $7 higher in the Southern Plains at $140/cwt., $3-$6 higher in Nebraska at $136-$140, $5-$8 higher in Colorado at $140 and $3-$6 higher in the western Corn Belt at $135-$140. Dressed trade was $7 higher in Nebraska at $217 and $3-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $213-$217.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.90 lower Tuesday afternoon at $271.68/cwt. Select was $1.73 lower at $260.29/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday, with apparent pressure from COVID variant worries.

“The recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant pose downside risks to employment and economic activity and increased uncertainty for inflation. Greater concerns about the virus could reduce people’s willingness to work in person, which would slow progress in the labor market and intensify supply-chain disruptions,” explained Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.

Moreover, based on various reports, Powell suggested the FOMC might consider accelerated tapering of the federal bond buying program as inflation continues higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 652 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 88 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 245 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed $3.72 to $3.79 lower in the front six contracts.

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“There should be three strong weeks of cattle prices leading up to the cattle market break that will occur during the Christmas and New Year holidays. However, prices are expected to strengthen moving into January,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his most recent market comments. “The number of cattle marketed the next three weeks will depend on a producer’s desire to market cattle before the end of the year or after the start of the new year as it can have tax implications. Regardless of the month producers decide to market calves, prices are expected to slowly increase from December through April. The expectation is to see the strongest prices since the spring of 2016.”

Likewise, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University points out underlying cattle market fundamentals continue pointing to increasing price strength.

“Boxed beef cutout valuations continue to drift lower following summer seasonal highs, but packer margins remain incredibly strong by historical standards,” Koontz explains, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Federally inspected steer and heifer slaughter remain at elevated levels and repeatedly press on what I perceive as industry capacity of 525,000 head per week. Saturday slaughter also is at elevated levels. Cattle on feed over 120 days and over 150 days continue the seasonal decline but remain above last year. The leverage remains with the packer in this situation, but the packer has a strong incentive to run as many hours as possible. Beef cow slaughter also remains strong. The beef herd liquidation, at least partially, continues and will impact next year’s supply.”

Plus, Koontz explains reduced beef cold storage inventory amid increased beef supplies suggest ongoing domestic demand strength.

“There are solid underlying supply and demand fundamentals, and it is clear that the bottleneck in the packing sector remains,” Koontz says. “It is reasonable to have long-term optimism but at the same time be willing to periodically and aggressively reduce risk.”

Cattle futures softened Monday amid likely profit taking and month-end positioning. Although some would say they started the week in oversold territory in need of technical correction, the fundamental pathway continues clear.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 91¢ lower, from $1.42 lower at the front to 22¢ lower at the back.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $3.34 higher at $161.29/cwt.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.25 lower, from 55¢ lower toward the back to $1.90 lower near the front of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $7 higher in the Southern Plains at $140/cwt., $3-$6 higher in Nebraska at $136-$140, $5-$8 higher in Colorado at $140 and $3-$6 higher in the western Corn Belt at $135-$140. Dressed trade was $7 higher in Nebraska at $217 and $3-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $213-$217.

Recent trade volume and delivery patterns suggest cash prices this week have the potential to gain more.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.43 lower Monday afternoon at $277.58/cwt. Select was 26¢ lower at $262.02/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ to 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices pared sharp losses from the previous session on Monday  as traders and everyone else tried to sort out the potential impact of the new COVID variant announced last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 236 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 60 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 291 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME rebounded $1.80 to $1.89 through the front six contracts.

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“As 2021 winds to a close, cattle markets seem to finally be able to move out from under the specter of the pandemic impacts that began 18 months ago…The recent breakout of fed cattle markets, after struggling under the weight of beef packer capacity constraints, clears the way for cattle markets to move forward with the optimism that has been building in the industry in recent months,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Peel adds that plenty of challenges remain, including COVID uncertainty and economic ripple effects, higher input costs and drought. But, he explains, market fundamentals continue to improve.

“The beef cow herd has been declining since 2019 and declined even faster in 2021. It will decline again in 2022 and likely in 2023,” Peel says. “However, strong domestic beef demand bolstered by even stronger demand and potential in international markets suggests that cyclical expansion could resume in the not-to-distant future. Exactly what the future path will be remains to be determined but producers should consider strategic and tactical plans for industry outcomes.”

With that in mind, Peel suggests winter is an appropriate time for producers to consider both animal and forage production and management plans for the coming year. 

“Once calf marketing is complete and herd culling decisions are implemented, a relative down-time is ideal for a bit of review of the past year and planning for next year with a series of questions,” Peel says. “What are the conditions of pastures and rangeland going into the next growing season; should grazing plans or stocking rates be adjusted? Were production and reproductive rates and weaning weights as expected?  What is the current body condition of the cows?  What is the herd health status?  Are upcoming herd nutritional needs evaluated and matched with feed and supplement resources? Planning now can help manage costs and production next year.”

Bottom line, Peel says relative market stability offers producers the opportunity to play offense rather than defense for the first time in a long while, if they’re prepared to do so.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Friday amid holiday-shortened trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 15¢ lower, except for an average of 26¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 10¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 5¢ lower in three contracts.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 14¢ lower through the front six contracts and then mostly 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $7 higher in the Southern Plains at $140/cwt., $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $138-$140, $5-$8 higher in Colorado at $140 and $6 higher in the western Corn Belt at $138-$140. Dressed trade was $7 higher in Nebraska at $217.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 566,000 head was 111,000 head fewer than the previous week. Total year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 30.16 million head was 863,000 head more (+2.9%) than a year earlier. Total year-to-date estimated beef production of 24.95 billion lbs. was 601.5 million lbs. more (+2.5%) than a year earlier.

The average dressed steer weight the week ending Nov. 13 was 924 lbs., according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. That was 5 lbs. heavier than the previous week but 6 lbs. lighter than a year earlier. The average dressed heifer weight of 844 lbs. was 2 lbs. heavier than the previous week but 2 lbs. lighter than the previous year.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 90¢ higher Friday afternoon at $280.01/cwt. Select was $1.19 lower at $262.28/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday, in response to reports from the World Health Organization about a new COVID variant (Omicron) discovered in South Africa, where COVID infections increased in recent weeks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 905 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 106 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 353 points.

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Last year, there were 19.7 million full-time and part-time jobs related to the agricultural and food sectors — 10.3% of total U.S. employment — according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“Direct on-farm employment accounted for about 2.6 million of these jobs, or 1.4% of U.S. employment,” according to ERS analysts. “Employment in agriculture-related and food-related industries supported another 17.1 million jobs. Of these, food service, eating and drinking places accounted for the largest share at 10.5 million jobs. Food and beverage stores supported 3.3 million jobs.”

For recent perspective, 772,000 workers were hired directly by operators of the nation’s farms and ranches the week of Oct. 10-16, 2021, according to the most recent Farm Labor report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). That was 2% more than the reference week in October 2020.

Farm and ranch operators paid their hired workers an average gross wage of $16.59 per hour during the October 2021 reference week. That was 5% more than the previous year. Field workers received an average of $16.08 per hour, up 5%. Livestock workers earned $15.45 per hour, up 6%. The field and livestock worker combined gross wage rate of $15.92 per hour was 5% more than the 2020 reference week.