Daily Market Highlights

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices are soaring. So far this week, live prices in the Southern Plains are $7 higher at $140/cwt., $4-$6 higher in Nebraska at $138-$139 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $136-$138. Trade through Wednesday afternoon was moderate with good demand in the Southern Plains and Nebraska, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices in Colorado last week were at $132-$135. Dressed prices last week were at $210.

Cash bullishness added fuel to the rally in Cattle futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.60 higher ($1.07 higher at the back to $2.55 higher in spot Jan).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.09 higher, (37¢ higher toward the back to $2.50 higher in spot Dec).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 47¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $279.11/cwt. Select was 80¢ higher at $263.47/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 7¢ lower through the front five contracts and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday.

Initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Nov. 20 were 199,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That was 71,000 fewer than the previous week and the fewest since Nov. 15 in 1969.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 10 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 70 points.

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Historically large exports of U.S. beef to China continue to help buoy this year’s record pace of exports overall.

“Through the first three quarters of the year, the U.S. has shipped 394.5 million pounds to China, a more than 9-fold increase from the same period last year,” according to analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Since March of this year, China has ranked as the number three destination for U.S. beef exports each month. In September, China accounted for 18.1% of total exports for the month behind South Korea (22.4%) and Japan (24.0%).”

Based on weekly exports and net sales data, LMIC analysts say beef exports to China are expected to remain elevated through the end of the year.

“The last two weeks, USDA FAS reported new sales of 8,230 and 13,751 metric tons (or 18.1 and 30.3 million lbs.) to China,” say LMIC analysts. “Net sales are new export sales which were purchased for delivery to the destination. Two consecutive weeks of large new sales of beef to China is an indication that they are likely sourcing beef supplies for the Chinese New Year (February 1, 2022) and 2022 Winter Olympics (February 4-20, 2022).”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in the Southern Plains to limited on light demand in other regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although there were too few transactions to trend, early live sales were $3 higher in the Southern Plains at $136/cwt.

Prices last week were at $133 in the Southern Plains, $133-$134 in Nebraska, $132-$135 in Colorado and $132-$134 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was at $210.

Cattle futures continued to gain ground Tuesday with recent cash strength and the likelihood of another step forward this week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ higher, from 37¢ to $1.22 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 61¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $278.64/cwt. Select was $1.06 lower at $262.67/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Tuesday as bond yields continued to hamper tech stocks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 194 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 79 points.

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U.S. beef and veal exports are projected at $9.1 billion next year, which would be $428 million more than this year, according to the latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The increase is based mostly on expected higher unit values.

Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast to increase by $1.9 billion to $38.7 billion, with gains across all major commodities except pork.

Total U.S. agricultural exports for 2022 are projected at $175.5 billion, down $2.0 billion from the August forecast, driven by forecast reductions in oilseed and oilseed product exports. If realized, however, the total would be record large.

“The global economic recovery continues to make progress, but with continued disruptions posed by both price pressures and supply issues. Continued supply-chain backlogs and coronavirus (COVID-19) variants have slowed the economic recovery,” say ERS-FAS analysts. “Despite these continued challenges, global employment statistics continue to gain strength, pointing to momentum in the economic recovery through the end of the calendar year. World real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 5.9% in 2021, and subsequently increase by 4.9% in 2022.”

ERS-FAS projects U.S. real GDP at 6.0% this year and 5.2% next year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $133/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $133-$134, steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $132-$134 and steady to $3 higher in Colorado at $132-$135. Dressed trade was $3 higher at $210.

Cattle futures gained some traction Monday with support from last week’s stronger cash prices and the neutral Cattle on Feed report.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ higher, except for unchanged in the back contract, amid light trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ higher, from 32¢ higher at the back to $1.27 higher toward the front. 

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 84¢ higher Monday afternoon at $279.25/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $263.73/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 7¢ higher, riding wheat’s coattails.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 11¢ higher through the front six contracts, and then mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday as bond yield rates and the Dollar index increased.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 202 points.

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“Market-ready supplies of fed cattle have tightened and packers are actively chasing cattle for the first time in many months,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. He notes the upper end of last week’s negotiated cash fed cattle price range was $9-$10 higher than the last week of October.

At the same time, Peel explains Oklahoma auction prices for feeder steers (800-850 lbs., Medium and Large #1) increased nearly 6% since September and are about 21% higher than when the year began.

“This increase in feeder prices reflects generally tighter feeder cattle supplies and fed market optimism as reflected in Live Cattle futures prices in 2022,” Peel explains. “This is despite sharply higher feedlot cost of gain — up 33% from January to September in Kansas feedlot surveys.”

Stocker steer and calf prices are up sharply from early October lows. Oklahoma auction prices for Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 450-500 lbs. rose 13% over the last seen weeks and are nearly 8% more than the beginning of the year, according to Peel.

“In general, cattle prices are higher now compared to last year and are expected to continue improving in 2022. Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures have priced in considerable optimism for 2022,” Peel says. “However, plenty of challenges remain for cattle producers with continued drought, higher input prices, supply chain disruptions and considerable short-term macroeconomic uncertainty. It will still be a bumpy ride, but producers can focus more on managing costs with cattle prices generally moving higher.”

Refreshing might be the most apt way to describe last week’s negotiated cash fed cattle trade. For the first time in what seems like forever, packers chased cattle to fill their pipelines. Cattle feeders passed early-week bids and carved mainly another $1-$3 from the market.

Live prices last week were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $132/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $133-$134 and $1-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $133-$134. Dressed trade was $3 higher at $210. Live prices in Colorado the previous week were at $132. There were a few sales reported at $135 in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, but too few to trend.

The five-area direct average fed steer price through Thursday was $1.66 higher than the previous week at $133.01/cwt. The average steer price in the beef was $2.99 higher at $209.59.

Estimated total cattle slaughter the week ending Nov. 20 of 677,000 head was 22,000 head more than the previous week. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 29.59 million head is 857,000 head more (+2.98%) than a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 24.47 billion lbs. is 605.8 million lbs. (+2.54%) than a year earlier.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Friday, but rode the coattails of stronger cash prices to weekly gains.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ lower, except for unchanged to 12¢ higher in three contracts. They were an average of $2.83 higher week to week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 27¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in Jun and unchanged at the back of the board. Week to week, they were an average of $1.15 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.25 higher Friday afternoon at $278.41/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $263.85/cwt. Week to week, though, Choice was $5.89 lower and. Select was $5.70 lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower, except for 1¢ higher in four contracts mid-board.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ higher, except for fractionally lower to 2¢ lower in the front five contracts.

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Except for the tech-heavy NASDAQ, major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by the new COVID lockdown in Austria.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 268 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 63 points.

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Logic suggests markets should view the latest monthly Cattle on Feed report — feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity — as neutral, coming in line with pre-report expectations.

Cattle feeders placed 2.25 million head in October, which was 53,000 head more (+2.4%) than a year earlier.

In terms of placement weights, 48% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 40% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 12% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in October of 1.79 million head were 85,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same time last year.

Cattle on feed Nov. 1 of 11.95 million head were on par with a year earlier.

Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) point out the inventory of cattle on feed more than 120 days tightened by 175,000 head month to month. That’s the least in 10 months, they say, but still nearly 100,000 head more year over year.

“Continued placements of heifers is likely still happening to boost cattle placements and to maintain these levels of inventory,” say LMIC analysts in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The Jan. 1 cattle inventory is just around the corner and it’s looking more and more like the beef herd will be down more than 2%.”

Last week, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected fourth-quarter feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., basis Oklahoma City) by $3 to $154/cwt., compared to the previous monthly projection.

That’s based on current price strength and improved prospects of winter pasturing stocker cattle, which will likely increase competition, according to ERS analysts, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. They point out October feeder steer prices at Oklahoma City averaged about $16 more year over year at $153.52/cwt. 

The forecast average feeder steer price for next year was unchanged at $155.50, compared to the projected average price of $145.55 this year.

ERS projects the average feeder steer price at $153 in the first quarter, $151 in the second quarter and $156 in the third quarter.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices perked up another $1-$3 on Thursday with light to moderate trade and demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $132/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $133-$134 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $133. Dressed trade was $3 higher at $210. Live prices in Colorado last week were at $132.

Stronger cash prices helped push Cattle futures higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.90 higher, except for 15¢ lower in nearly spent Nov.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 70¢ higher.

Lower grain futures prices added support.

Corn futures closed narrowly mixed, from 2¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 11¢ to 15¢ lower.

Wholesale beef prices continued to drift lower. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.66 lower Thursday afternoon at $278.47/cwt. Select was $2.53 lower at $264.06/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 25,500 metric tons (2021) for the week ending Nov. 11 were 23% more than the previous week and 58% more than the prior four-week average, according to the U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Thursday.

Weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by 1,000 to 268,000 for the week ending Nov. 13, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That was in line with trader expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 60 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 72 points.

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Rabobank analysts expect operational beef packing capacity and cattle numbers to regain some relative balance by the second quarter of next year.

“Although packers will still have healthy margins compared to pre-pandemic levels, the price spread between beef and cattle will begin a multi-year narrowing trend in 2022,” say Rabobank analysts, in the recent Rabobank Global Animal Protein Outlook 2022. “Even as domestic beef demand (willingness to pay) falls slightly from its pandemic highs, continued export growth, declining beef production and general economic inflation will provide price support.”

Along those same lines, Don Close, Rabobank senior animal protein analyst notes North American feed costs are expected to remain at high levels. “Producers will need to be vigilant in finding opportunities to lock in profitable margins,” he says.

Animal protein supply chains face across-the-board cost inflation with the most significant increases coming in four key areas – animal feed, labor, energy and freight, according to the report.

“This next year has the potential to accelerate structural change as a result of escalating costs,” says Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst for Rabobank. “Success will most likely go the players that adapt to the changing business environment; embracing consumer preferences for sustainability and preparing for a surge in demand as economies continue to reopen and adjust following COVID-19-induced lockdowns.”

Apparent resolve by cattle feeders to ignore early, steady-money negotiated cash fed cattle bids helped underpin the slightly higher close in Cattle futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ higher, except for 35¢ lower in Jan

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ higher, except for unchanged in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Prices last week were at $132/cwt. on a live basis in the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains and Colorado. They were $131-$132 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $207.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.66 lower Wednesday afternoon at $278.47/cwt. Select was $2.53 lower at $264.06/cwt.

Grain futures strengthened on news ranging from reduced ethanol tariffs in South America to speculation about China buying interest in 2022.

Corn futures closed 5¢ higher through the front four contracts and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 19¢ to 25¢ higher through the front six contracts, 11¢ to 17¢ higher through the middle of the board and then 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, as investor concern about inflation appeared to be the main driver.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 211 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 52 points.

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Early 10-year baseline projections (2022 to 2031) from USDA’s Economic Research Service suggest livestock prices, except hogs, will increase over the next decade, while U.S. crop prices will decline.

“Beef cattle and broiler prices are expected to demonstrate a modest increase in the early years of the projection period before leveling off to slower growth, resulting in an average price increase of 8% to 17% over the decade,” according to ERS analysts.

The projected five-area direct fed steer price is forecast to increase steadily from $121.06/cwt. this year and $128.75 next year to $142.55 by 2031.

Feeder steer prices (basis Oklahoma City) are projected to grow from this year’s average of $144.80/cwt. to $155.50 next year and $171.19 in 2023. From there, the price increases to $181.41 by 2031.

That’s with the beef cow herd projected to be 30.56 million head in 2022, declining to 30.53 million in 2023 and then expanding steadily to 31.46 million head in 2031.

During the same period, season-average corn prices received by producers are projected to decline from $4.80/bu. in 2022-23 to $4.00 by 2026-27. ERS pegs the season-average corn price this year (2021-22) at $5.45.

“Expected declines for crops follow a period of generally higher prices that have peaked during the current marketing year,” say ERS analysts. “The price-bolstering effects of economic recovery, renewed export demand, and logistical problems in supply chains are forecast to subside after the recent peak during the 2021-22 marketing year, and crop prices are forecast subsequently to return to the earlier pattern of generally lower prices through 2031.”

A break in Corn futures prices and improving supply fundamentals helped Feeder Cattle futures close an average of 79¢ higher Tuesday (37¢ to $1.10 higher), except for 27¢ lower in the waning spot month.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ lower through near Jly and then mostly 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ‘23 and then 2¢ to 7¢ lower.

Incidentally, with most of the winter wheat in the ground as of Nov. 14, there was 46% rated as Good (39%) or Excellent (7%), according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report. That was on par with the same time last year.

Despite recently stronger cash prices, Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed again —  from an average of 15¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 17¢ higher — with pressure from the lack of cash direction and what appear to have been peak wholesale beef prices for the season.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon. There were too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Prices last week were at $132/cwt. on a live basis in the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains and Colorado. They were $131-$132 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $207.

Early indications suggest prices no worse than steady this week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.07 lower Tuesday afternoon at $282.13/cwt. Select was 69¢ lower at $266.59/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, on the back of robust U.S. retail sales in October.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October — adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes — were 1.7% more month to month at $638.2 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That was 16.3% more than a year earlier.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 120 points.

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With global demand for U.S. red meat surging and exports on a record pace this year, Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) says the severity of current transportation challenges can’t be overstated.

That was among many topics discussed at last week’s USMEF Strategic Planning Conference and Board of Directors Meeting, where panelists provided insight to the logistical challenges exporters face when moving chilled and frozen product through West Coast ports.

Veteran logistics journalist Bill Mongelluzzo, trans-Pacific senior editor at Journal of Commerce, noted that media outlets too often describe current shipping difficulties as gridlock, which misrepresents the situation and draws attention only to the number of vessels waiting at anchor.

“Gridlock means nothing is moving, when in fact the Port of Long Beach and other ports are moving record or near-record volumes of cargo every month, Mongelluzzo explained. “This has gone on for 16 consecutive months beginning in July 2020. The big issue right now are the warehouses – not just in Southern California where there’s close to 2 billion square feet of industrial space. You name the gateway – New York, New Jersey, Norfolk, Savannah – and these warehouses are totally and completely packed.”

On the other side of equation, Port of Long Beach Chief Operating Officer Noel Hacegaba shared steps the Port of Long Beach has taken to improve the flow of the surging volume of containers carrying imported cargo, which face several bottlenecks between U.S. point of entry and their final destination. Those steps include expansion of port operating hours and the recent imposition of dwell fees assessed on inbound containers that are not picked and removed promptly.

“Why are we assessing additional charges at a time when they need relief? Well, you can’t let the terminal, or even the ships at anchor, serve as warehouses – and that’s effectively what they’re doing,” Hacegaba explained. “We need to get those boxes out, and since we made that announcement, those boxes that this surcharge targets are down 20% at the Port of Long Beach, and this shows there is still room for improvement.”

Hacegaba and Mongelluzzo both cautioned that it is difficult to estimate when U.S. exporters will see significant improvement in the shipping industry’s ability to move their cargo to overseas destinations. Projections range from early 2022, when the Lunar New Year holidays tend to slow the volume of imports arriving at U.S. ports, to late 2022 or early 2023. The uncertainty is a growing concern for international customers who rely on prompt delivery of U.S. beef and pork.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade through Monday afternoon ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Prices last week were at $132/cwt. on a live basis in the Northern Plains and the Southern Plains. They were $131-$132 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $207.

The average dressed steer weight the week ending Oct. 30 was 920 lbs., according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. That was 2 lbs. heavier than the previous week but 6 lbs. lighter than the previous year. The actual dressed heifer weight of 842 lbs. was the same as a week earlier but 6 lbs. lighter than the previous year.

Cattle futures traded sideways to slightly higher Monday, amid lackadaisical trade.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 17¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 21¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 57¢ higher, except for 32¢ lower in the waning spot month.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower through near Mar and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher through Sep ’23 and then mostly 7¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 lower Monday afternoon at $283.20/cwt. Select was $2.25 lower at $267.28/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending Nov. 4 of 20,600 metric tons for 2021 were 23% more than the previous week and 39% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for China, Taiwan, Japan, Mexico and South Korea.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed marginally lower Monday as investors awaited monthly economic data this week, including U.S. retail sales.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 12 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 7 points.

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Steer and heifer calves traded counter-seasonally stronger in most regions last week, mostly steady to $5/cwt. higher with instances of $7-$10 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“There were places in South Dakota where very heavy supplies of calves are dominating the market and traded lower as trucking has also been an issue,” according to AMS analysts.

The dwindling supply of yearlings traded most firm to $5 higher.

In his weekly market comments, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University notes calf prices are moving counter-seasonally higher amid what’s typically the peak calf marketing period of the year.

In Oklahoma, for instance, Peel says Medium and Large #1 steers the week ending Nov. 12 averaged $184.95/cwt. at 450-500 lb. That was $8.61 more than the prior week.

“The average price noted for value-added calves in the USDA-AMS report for the 450-500 lbs. steers was $194.57, nearly $10.00/cwt. higher than the average price for similar steers,” Peel says. “By contrast, the price for similar steers marked as un-weaned was reported at $174.86, about $10.00/cwt. lower than the average and about $20.00/cwt. lower than the price for the value-added calves. The value-added calves were valued $93.62/head more than un-weaned calves and $45.70/head over average calves.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices finished last week $2 higher in Nebraska on a live basis at $132/cwt. and $2-$4 higher at $132 in the Southern Plains and the western Corn Belt. Fed cattle in Colorado also sold for $132, but there’s been no trend reported in that region for some time. Dressed prices were $3-$5 higher at $207.

Through Thursday, the five-area direct average steer price was $131.35/cwt. on a live basis, which was $3.23 more than the previous week. The five-area average steer price in the beef was $4.55 higher at $206.60.

“This week’s five-area weighted average price is the highest price since June 2017 and the first week the price has exceeded $130 since that same time period,” explained Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The spring price peak in 2017 was just over $144/cwt., but the spring price spike was short lived. The difference in today’s market is that the market is in a position to sustain prices in excess of $130 for several months. Fed cattle prices are not likely to spike, but methodically increase.”

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week was 655,000 head, which was 5,000 head more than the previous week. Year-to-date total estimated cattle slaughter of 28.9 million head was 844,000 head more (+3.0%) than the same period a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date beef production through last week of 23.9 billion lbs. was 601.8 million lbs. more (+2.6%) than a year earlier.

Rallying Corn futures pressured Cattle futures Friday, especially Feeder Cattle.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 25¢ lower, except for 25¢ higher in spot Dec. They closed an average of 33¢ lower week to week on Friday, except for an average of 27¢ higher in two contracts. 

Corn futures faded early-week pressure from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. On Friday, they closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ’22 and then mostly 2¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 18¢ higher through the front six contracts. 

Soybean futures rallied higher, helped along by decreased projected yield in the WASDE. They closed 21¢ to 23¢ higher through Aug ’22 and then mostly 10¢ to 17¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 38.4¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Cash calf and feeder cattle prices were mixed last week, but continued to show upside promise.

“The strong run of lightweight calves and slaughter cows the past several weeks has pressured prices for these classes of cattle, but prices have not faltered as much as the seasonal tendency would predict,” according to Griffith. “Most producers with spring calving herds will have marketed the 2021 calf crop and culled cows from the herd by early December. This means the price of these two classes of cattle will soon turn around and begin to seasonally increase as supply begins to wane.”

In the meantime, rallying grain futures pressured Feeder Cattle futures last week. They closed an average of $2.02 lower week to week on Friday ($1.50 lower toward the back to $2.62 lower in spot Nov). That was with an average decline of $1.13 on Friday. 

“The longer term outlook is for prices of cattle to continue increasing as there is an expectation of a bull market the next two to three years,” Griffith says. “However, the higher cattle price expectation in 2022 may not be able to overcome higher input costs for feed, fuel and fertilizer. Producers are encouraged to begin evaluating alternative production plans to reduce the dependency on these three inputs as prices are expected to remain elevated through the spring and potentially longer.”

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Wholesale beef values show signs of reaching a seasonal peak sooner than normal, but robust international demand for U.S. beef continues to strengthen the price floor.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 38¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $285.14/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $267.29. Week to week, Choice was $5.24 lower. Select was $2.01 higher.

“Despite the wholesale price of beef remaining elevated, international markets continue to be a vacuum for the high-quality beef and beef products being produced in the United States. The fact beef continues to move at a strong pace to international customers is a good indicator that demand remains strong for beef,” Griffith says. “There are sure to be some market analysts who will raise concerns about export demand slowing, which is always a possibility with customers like China. However, Japan and South Korea continue to lead the way as the top destinations with China being a solid third place followed by Mexico and Canada.”

Year-to-date U.S. beef exports remained on a record pace through September.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, bouncing back from pressure earlier in the week from the stoutest inflation in three decades.

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 156 points.

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On Friday, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) called on Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to immediately suspend all imports of fresh beef from Brazil to the United States.

In the letter to USDA, NCBA asked for a suspension until the agency conducts a thorough risk assessment and review of the processes that Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply (MAPA) uses to detect disease and other threats to consumers. NCBA also urged USDA to review Brazil’s veterinary diagnostic laboratory system.

The U.S. and Brazil share “Negligible Risk” status for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) with the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). However, according to NCBA, reports published by OIE indicate Brazil took more than eight weeks to report two confirmed cases of atypical BSE in September. The OIE requires countries to report within 24 hours for any animal disease event that could be of international concern for public health emergencies.

“It’s time to keep Brazilian fresh beef out of this country until USDA can confirm that Brazil meets the same consumer and food safety standards that we apply to all our trade partners,” says Ethan Lane, NCBA Vice President of Government Affairs.

“NCBA has long expressed concerns about Brazil’s history of failing to report atypical BSE cases in a timely manner, a pattern that stretches back as far as 2012. Their poor track record and lack of transparency raises serious doubts about Brazil’s ability to produce cattle and beef at an equivalent level of safety as American producers. If they cannot meet that bar, their product has no place here,” Lane says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were too few transactions to trend.

So far this week, live prices are $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $131-$132/cwt., $2 higher at $132 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices are $3-$5 higher at $207.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 38¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $285.14/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $267.29.

Live Cattle futures wavered in place Thursday, while a break in the Corn rally helped Feeder Cattle breathe higher.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from unchanged to an average of 17¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ higher (42¢ to $1.02 higher).

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 8¢ higher through Sep ’22 and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Thursday as investors appeared to be digesting direction amid increasing inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 158 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 81 points.

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“After three Congressional hearings featuring the testimony of industry experts and a major economic analysis of the beef supply chain out of Texas A&M, Senators continue to ignore market fundamentals and are attempting to guarantee higher prices for livestock producers,” according to Julie Anna Potts, President and CEO of the North American Meat Institute.

Potts was referring to new bipartisan compromise legislation — the Cattle Market Price Discovery and Transparency Act — announced by U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) earlier this week.

Among other things, the law would establish regional mandatory minimum thresholds of negotiated cash and negotiated grid trades based on regional average 18-month trade levels.

“If this bill becomes law, there will be cattle producers who want alternative marketing arrangements, but will instead be forced to sell on the cash market, and the industry will turn back time to the days of commodity cattle,” Potts says.

She offers relevant statements made by expert agricultural economists during the aforementioned Congressional hearings.

For instance, in Senate testimony, Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University explained, “Stated directly – without contemporary use of alternative marketing agreements I believe cattle prices would be lower as production efforts would not align as well with consumer demands.”

In House testimony, Jayson Lusk, agricultural economist at Purdue noted, “Even if 100 percent of cattle were being sold on the cash market, it doesn’t mean prices would have been any higher than what we recently observed.”