Daily Market Highlights

For the week so far, negotiated cash fed cattle trade is mainly $1 higher on a live basis at $116/cwt. in the Southern Plains and at $115-$117 up north. Dressed trade is $2 higher at $184.

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday, though, especially Feeder Cattle, as wholesale beef values show signs of seasonal weakening, and ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Other than 2¢ higher in spot Dec, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 49¢ lower

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.18 lower.

Wholesale beef values were sharply lower on light demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.35 lower Thursday afternoon at $234.86/cwt. Select was 91¢ lower at $213.86.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to drift lower Thursday, with continued uncertainty surrounding the enigmatic back and forth chatter concerning the U.S.- China trade deal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 20 points.

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Beef cow slaughter appears to be picking up speed, based on USDA’s monthly Livestock Slaughter report issued Thursday.

Non-dairy cow slaughter—the ‘other cow’ category in USDA’s report—for October of 307,900 head was 28,800 head more (+10.32%) than last year. For January through October, non-dairy cow slaughter of 2.61 million head is 82,000 head more (+3.24%) than the same period last year.

Similarly, fed heifer slaughter of 8.16 million head for the first 10 months of the year is 572,400 head more (+7.54%) than the same period in 2018.

For perspective, total fed steer and heifer slaughter in October of 2.28 million head was 9,900 head fewer (-0.43%) than the previous year. For January through October, however, fed steer and heifer slaughter of 21.85 million head is 253,100 head more (+1.17%) than the same period last year.

Federally inspected cattle slaughter for the month of October was 2.93 million head, which was 17,600 head more (+0.61%) than the previous year.

Dressed steer weights in October averaged 902 lbs., which was 4 lbs. heavier than the previous year. For January through October, though, dressed steer weights are 4 lbs. lighter at 872 lbs.

Dressed heifer weights in October averaged 830 lbs., which was even with the previous year. For January through October, however, dressed heifer weights are 5 lbs. lighter at 808 lbs.

Total beef production in October was 2.44 billion lbs., which was 7.5 million lbs. more (+0.31%) than the previous year. For January through October, total beef production of 22.59 billion lbs. was 147.5 million lbs. more (+0.66%) than last year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade developed in the Southern Plains Wednesday at $116/cwt., which was $1 higher than last week.

That matched optimism in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange Auction, where 1,229 head—three lots each from Kansas and Nebraska—sold out of 1,398 head: 283 head for a weighted average price of $116/cwt. (delivery at 1-9 days) and 946 head for a weighted average price of $115.44 (delivery at 1-17 days). One other lot of Texas heifers was passed at $114.50 for delivery at 1-9 days.

Although too few to trend, there were also some early sales in Nebraska Wednesday at $114-$116 and some in the beef at $184, which was $2 higher than the previous week. Early live sales in the western Corn Belt were steady to $2 higher at $115-$117.

Cattle futures were mixed Wednesday, mainly higher toward the front of the board for Live Cattle, but lower for Feeder Cattle, perhaps with defensive positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from an average of 27¢ lower to an average of 21¢ higher.

After unchanged and 5¢ higher in the front two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 41¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 80¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $238.21/cwt. Select was 70¢ lower at $214.77.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ lower through Nov ’20 and then 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday. Despite strong earnings from retailers like Lowe’s and Target, pressure came on chatter that the first phase of the U.S.-China trade deal might not get signed this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 112 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 49 points.

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Pre-report estimates of feedlot placements in October are canyon-wide, which could jolt markets one way or the other, after the monthly Cattle on Feed report comes out Friday.

Allendale Inc. projects October placements at 2.163 million head, which would be 3.8% less than the previous year and the least for the month in seven years.

On the other hand, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Urner Barry, and reported by the Daily Livestock Report, is for placements to be up 12.2%.

There are a number of factors likely driving such diverse views.

Apparent improvement in feedlot margins, reports of poor wheat pasture conditions, delayed calf marketing—due to low prices and market uncertainty and made possible by positive forage conditions—support the notion of higher placements. 

Conversely, lower placements could be driven, in part, by the current value of gain for growing cattle outside the feedyard, reduced imports of feeder cattle, as well as growing chatter that there may be fewer cattle than previously thought. 

Both of the aforementioned groups estimate October marketings to be slightly less than the previous year.

Allendale estimates total cattle on feed Nov. 1, for feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity to be 11.484 million head, which would be 1.8% less than the previous year. However, given the significantly higher placements anticipated by those in the Urner Barry survey, they estimate a year-over-year on-feed increase of 1.3%.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Tuesday with most of the pressure coming toward the front of the board, but remaining channel bound.

After 7¢ higher in spot Dec and then 5¢ to 22¢ lower in the next three contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher. 

Other than an average of 26¢ lower in three of the front contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were steady on moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 11¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $239.01/cwt. Select was 12¢ lower at $215.47.

Combined, 78.19% of carcasses graded Prime and Choice the week ending Nov. 8, according to the USDA National Steer and Heifer Estimated Grading Percent report. That was the highest level since last May. At 9.89%, Prime was the highest since last March.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday. Weaker same-store sales from the likes of Home Depot and Kohl’s appeared to be the primary pressure.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 102 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 20 points.

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“While beef exports (U.S.) are likely to end 2019 with an almost 2% decline, shipments are expected to rebound in 2020 by about 7%, as drought in

competitor Australia reduces its exportable supply at the same time as beef demand continues to expand in Asia,” say analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the November Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

U.S. beef exports in September were 3% less than a year earlier, according to ERS, with most of the decline coming from shipments to Japan, Hong Kong and Mexico. But, exports were higher year over year to South Korea, Indonesia, China, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.

“Several factors, including increased demand for animal proteins in Asia, changes in trading patterns, and tighter supplies in Australia, positioned the United States to expand its shipments of beef to a number of Asian countries during September,” say ERS analysts.

Net sales of beef to international customers (25,300 mt) for the week ending Nov. 7 were up 92% from the four-week average, according to the most recent Weekly U.S. Export Sales report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

Domestically, retail beef demand in the third quarter was the highest since 2015, according to the Meat Demand Index (MDI) calculated by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“Retail beef demand is currently in an up-cycle after 2008-2013 showed values below 100. Since 2014 the index for the third quarter has ranged from 102 to 110,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

Last week’s weighted average 5-area direct price for fed steers was 59¢ higher at $115.19/cwt. on a live basis and 68¢ higher in the beef at $181.72.

Cattle futures firmed to start the week, helped along by the Tyson announcement regarding the reopening of its Kansas plant (see below).

Other than 40¢ and 2¢ lower at either end of the board, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ higher. 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 35¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and higher on Select with moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.68 lower Monday afternoon at $239.12/cwt. Select was $1.26 higher at $215.59.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower Jul ’21 and then 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Monday, with little definitive impetus one way or the other.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was up 9 points.

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Tyson Fresh Meats—the beef and pork subsidiary of Tyson Foods, Inc.—announced Monday that efforts to resume harvest operations at its Holcombe, KS beef plant will begin the first week of December, with intentions to be fully operational by the first week of January. It plans to resume receiving cattle at the facility the first week of December.

“We recognize the disruption the fire caused for our suppliers and our customers and are more than pleased to announce we are in the final stages of reconstruction,” says Steve Stouffer, group president, Tyson Fresh Meats. “Our team is ready to begin the process of ramping back up, recognizing that there will be testing and adjustments over the first few weeks to ensure equipment functionality while maintaining our commitment to team member safety and food safety.”

The Aug. 9 fire that disrupted operations severely damaged a critical part of the plant containing the hydraulic and electrical systems that support the harvest floor and cooler areas.

Before the fire, the plant was harvesting about 6,000 head of fed cattle per day, accounting for about 6% of total U.S. fed cattle packing capacity.

Reconstruction included completely replacing support beams and the roof, hydraulic piping and pumps, installing over 50,000 feet of new wiring and the reconstruction of all new electrical panel rooms and equipment.

Since the fire, cattle have been diverted to the company’s other beef facilities, where they were able to offset some of the production volume losses, to try and help mitigate disruption to cattle producers and customers and has continued to pay active, full-time team members for 40 hours per week. Team members have been instrumental in helping with cleanup and the reconstruction process.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ended the week mainly steady to $1 higher at $115/cwt. on a live basis and at $182 in the beef, based on USDA reports.

There were 1,264 head offered in a Friday edition of the Fed Cattle Exchange auction, and no takers.

Cattle futures traded sideways and closed marginally mixed Friday.

Other than 2¢ and 5¢ higher in the front two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 17¢ lower. 

Other than 37¢ lower in spot Nov and 15¢ lower in Sep Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 16¢ higher.

Wholesale beef values were weak to lower on light demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 26¢ lower Friday afternoon at $240.80/cwt. Select was $1.51 lower at $214.33.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed strongly higher Friday, buoyed by reports that the U.S. and China are getting closer to a trade deal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 222 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 61 points.

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“As the Choice-Select price spread stays abnormally high, packers appear to be paying higher prices to bid cattle out of the feedlots, as the spread is likely incentivizing feedlots to keep cattle on feed longer,” say analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “Packers’ willingness to pay higher prices is likely supported by the strong boxed beef market going into the holiday season.”

USDA increased the expected fed steer price (5-area direct) $2 for the fourth quarter to $112/cwt. with a forecast annual price this year of $116. Average prices through the first three quarters of next year are projected at $113 (third quarter) to $120 (first quarter).

In turn, feeder steer prices finally started to increase.

ERS analysts point out feeder steers weighing 750-800 lbs. traded $13 higher ($148.04/cwt.) at Oklahoma City the week of Nov. 4, compared to the recent low the week of Sept. 9.

“Based on recent price data, the fourth-quarter 2019 feeder steer price was raised by $3 to $144/cwt. (basis Oklahoma City),” say ERS analysts. “The first-quarter price forecast for 2020 was raised by $2 to $138. The annual price forecast for feeder steers is raised by $1 to $142.

Projected feeder steer prices are expected to increase in 2020, especially in the latter half, compared to 2019. Year over year, the forecast first-quarter average price next year is $2.76 lower at $138/cwt., about even in the second at $130, but $6.81 higher in the third quarter at $147.90. The projected annual average price is $1.50 higher at $143.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade on Thursday continued steady with last week in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at mostly $115/cwt. on a live basis. Dressed sales were steady to $1 higher at $182.

Cattle futures strengthened on Thursday, regaining some of the losses from the previous session, with continued overall strength in beef demand.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 59¢ higher (32¢ higher to 97¢ higher in spot Dec).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 84¢ higher, (42¢ to $1.22 higher).

Wholesale beef values were lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.28 lower Thursday afternoon at $241.06/cwt. Select was $1.69 lower at $215.84.

Steer carcasses weighed an average of 903 lbs. for week ending Nov. 2, which was 3 lbs. lighter than the previous week, but 4 lbs. heavier than the same time a year earlier, according to the most recent USDA Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. Fed heifer carcasses weighed an average of at 835 lbs., on par with the previous week and year.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly unchanged to 3¢ lower, but 1¢ higher in a couple of the front months.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1 point lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 3 points.

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So far, rather than swap alternative proteins for real meat, it appears consumers in the western world are adding alternatives to what they already eat, according to the annual global animal protein outlook from RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness (RRFA).

“Contrary to expectations, the growing interest in alternative proteins has added to total protein consumption; the substitution effect is not yet clear in the consumption data,” according to RRFA analysts. “At the same time, animal

protein consumption has been stable, or up slightly, in the E.U. and U.S. in recent years. This is despite double-digit growth in alternatives’ sales: 16% year-over-year growth for 2018 in the U.S. and a compound annual growth rate of 16% in the Netherlands since 2016.”

Rabobank expects alternative protein consumption to grow next year, along with meat and seafood consumption.

“We also expect more clarity as to whether alternatives are an addition to or a substitute for meat and seafood. Alternatives will need to improve their nutritional profile and eating quality, and address regulatory barriers such as terminology, in order to maintain current growth rates,” according to RRFA analysts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade developed in the Southern Plains Wednesday with prices steady to $1 higher at $115/cwt. on a live basis.

There were 1,393 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange Auction, and no takers. Two lots from the Southern Plains were passed at bids of $115.00 and $115.50/cwt.

Choice steers and heifers sold $1.50-$2.00 higher at the fat auction in Tama, IA on Wednesday. There were 358 Choice 2-4 steers weighing an average of 1,452 lbs. and bringing an average price of $117.68. Country trade in the region last week was at $114-$115.

Cattle futures stepped lower, though, with heavy volume and about even open interest. Rather than the beginning of a correction, one could argue retrenchment ahead of what looks to be a higher trending market.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.60 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.13 lower, ($2.25 to $4.30 lower). A day earlier, the CME Feeder Cattle Index reached the highest level since last December at $147.44. 

Wholesale beef values were higher on good demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.84 higher Wednesday afternoon at $242.34/cwt. Select was $1.30 higher at $217.53.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Wednesday, with support from positive news, including a stout pop in Disney shares, capped by another see-saw chapter of U.S.-China trade talks; reports that there was yet another snag.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 3 points.

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“Besides the impact of ASF (African Swine Fever), many trade disputes and issues are causing uncertainty for global animal protein, with the US-China trade war the most apparent, but not the only trade uncertainty,” says Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist, Animal Protein at RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness (RRFA). “In addition, the ongoing rise of alternative proteins also adds to the uncertainty, even though Rabobank has a less bullish view of alternatives than others do.”

RRFA released its annual global animal protein outlook Wednesday.

Rabobank projects protein growth in most regions next year, but analysts say production losses, due to ASF, particularly in China, will exceed combined production growth in all other regions.

For North America, Rabobank anticipates production growth from all species, led by pork and followed by poultry and then beef.

“We expect U.S. beef production to be up slightly, by less than 1% in 2020,” according to the report. “Non-fed slaughter could also be up a little, as a result of liquidation. We expect the calf crop to come down slightly, reflecting weather conditions at calving and in the spring. We expect carcass weights to return to trend, offsetting any reduction in numbers.

“With only a fractional increase in production and solid exports, U.S. fed cattle prices are expected to change little. We expect a spring high of $128-$130/cwt. and a summer low of $100-$105.”

Cattle futures traded either side of steady on Tuesday, awaiting further direction from the cash market.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed but mostly marginally higher, from an average of 8¢ lower to an average of 11¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from 17¢ lower to 22¢ higher.

Currently strong market fundamentals should grow more positive when Tyson reopens the Kansas plant that was shuttered by fire in August. During a Tuesday conference call to share the company’s fourth-quarter fiscal results, Noel White, Tyson CEO said the company expects to have the plant fully operational within 60 days, and potentially sooner.

Wholesale beef values were higher on Choice and sharply higher on Select with moderate to good demand and light to moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.91 higher Tuesday afternoon at $240.50/cwt.—the highest since June of 2017. Select was $2.54 higher at $216.23.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 4¢ higher through Jly ’20 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed fractionally mixed to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices mainly edged higher on Tuesday, supported once again by positive quarterly corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed unchanged. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 21 points.

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Increased uncertainty and price pressure from the Tyson plant fire may have helped encourage some cow-calf producers to begin herd liquidation, says Elliott Dennis, livestock marketing economist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

To illustrate the market uncertainty leading into the fire, Dennis uses the example of a cow-calf producer in the Northern Plains, who calves in March or April and then sells weaned calves in October. At calving time, Dennis points out Feeder Cattle futures for Oct were around $157. After higher Corn futures rose in response to late and poor planting conditions, and applied price pressure to Feeder Cattle, he explains the October Feeder Cattle contract fluctuated between $132 and $145 in June, July and August, before sinking to $127, in the wake of the Tyson plant fire. By expiration, the contract was back up $145.

“How risk averse producers were likely determined price risk management used and ultimately gross revenue received for sold calves,” Dennis says, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. He adds that cow-calf producers could respond to the increased market volatility by selling cows and exiting the market or by retaining beef cows for breeding.

Although the number of beef cows bred and the number of heifers retained for breeding this year won’t be known until the Jan. 1 USDA Cattle report, Dennis says cow slaughter provides some indication of producer response.

Beef cow slaughter numbers this year tracked close to last year’s pace through much this year. However, Dennis says, USDA’s Cow Slaughter Under Federal Inspection reports suggest a large beef cow sell-off since the week of September 14. He adds that beef cow slaughter numbers are on an upward trend and show no sign of slowing down.

Besides the fire, Dennis explains cow slaughter likely increased, due to skyrocketing prices for 90% lean beef, tighter hay supplies borne by the wet spring and summer, and the slow recovery of cash prices.

“In the short term, this reduction in beef cows affects the number of calves born next year, and feeder cattle available to enter feedlots,” Dennis says. “In the long term, it could ultimately signal that the industry is beginning to enter a contraction phase of the cattle cycle.”

Cattle futures firmed and gained on Monday, supported by currently positive fundamentals, including seasonal strength for wholesale beef values and cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 56¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 92¢ higher (57¢ to $1.25 higher).

Wholesale beef values were weak on Choice and firm on Select with light to moderate demand and light offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 53¢ lower Monday afternoon at $238.59/cwt. Select was 43¢ higher at $213.69.

Corn futures closed 4¢ lower through Jly ’20 and then mostly 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 14¢ lower through Nov ’20 and then 5¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed marginally mixed on Monday, amid mixed news.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 11 points.

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“Prices for most weight classes of feeder cattle increased last week, suggesting that the last week of October may have been the seasonal low,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. “However, cold weather this week may dampen demand and could pressure prices a bit more as large fall run numbers will likely continue for another couple of weeks.”

In his weekly market comments, Peel explains price patterns are typical for the time of year in Oklahoma, with prices per hundredweight decreasing sharply from 400 to 600 lbs. and prices largely unchanged at weights from 600 to 800 lbs.

“The current price patterns suggest marketing considerations for both cow-calf sellers and stocker buyers. For example, the value of additional weight for retained weaned calves depends on the weaning weight of the animals and the amount of additional weight planned,” Peel explains. “At 450 lbs., the value of 50 lbs. of weight gain is only $34/head but the value of 50 additional lbs. for a steer weighing 550 lbs. at weaning is $46/head. However, under the current price pattern, the value per pound of additional weight is higher as more weight is added. Of course, prices at this point in time do not account for price changes over the time it takes to add additional weight. However, current price patterns provide information about potential value relative to additional costs to add weight.”

Cash fed cattle trade ended the week at $114-$115/cwt. in the Southern Plains, which was mainly $2 higher in Kansas and $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle. In Nebraska, live trade was unevenly steady at $114-$116. Prices in the western Corn Belt were $1-$2 higher at $114-$115. Dressed trade was $1-$2 higher at $181-$182.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed to marginally higher with positive Live Cattle fundamentals tempered by the more price-positive outlook for corn prices (see World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates below).

Except for 20¢ lower in the back contract, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 19¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed (27¢ lower to 22¢ higher).

Wholesale beef values were higher on Choice and steady on Select with moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 83¢ higher Friday afternoon at $239.12/cwt. Select was 24¢ higher at $213.26.

Corn futures closed 2¢ higher through Jly ’20 and then mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ Lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher on Friday, with continued optimism regarding progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 6 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 40 points.

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Forecast total red meat and poultry production for this year increased by 257 million lbs. to 105.02 billion lbs. (+0.25%) in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) issued Friday.

Projected beef production increased 88 million lbs. to 27.04 billion lbs. (+0.32%) on higher expected slaughter of fed cattle and non-fed cattle.

The expected average fed steer price (5-area direct) for this year increased 50¢ from the previous month to $116/cwt., based on recent price strength. Fourth-quarter price is projected at $112.

Forecast total red meat and poultry production for next year increased by 45 million lbs. to 107.46 billion lbs., with increased broiler and turkey production offsetting lower anticipated beef production. That would be 2.44 billion lbs. (+2.32%) more than this year.

Total projected beef production for next year was lowered by 120 million lbs. (-0.43%) on a slower expected pace of gains in carcass weights. That would be 514 million lbs. (+1.90%) more than this year.

The annual fed steer price for next year is projected at $116, with the first-quarter price at $120 and the second-quarter price at $117.

Corn

WASDE increased the season-average corn price by 5¢ to $3.85/bu., based on current prices.

This month’s 2019-20 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks.

Corn production is forecast at 13.66 billion bu., down 118 million from last month with reduced yield of 1.4 bu. to 167.0 bu./acre. Corn ending stocks are lowered 18 million bu. 

Soybeans

The U.S. soybean outlook is for slightly lower production of 3.55 billion bu., down less than 1 million bu. from the previous month, on fractionally lower yields and unchanged harvested area. But, ending stocks were projected higher on reduced crush.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019-20 is forecast at $9/bu., unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price forecast is also unchanged at $325/short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 31¢/lb., up 1¢ from last month, on sharply higher reported prices through October.

Wheat

The outlook for 2019-20 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Projected wheat supplies were lowered by 42 million bu., based on updated production estimates for the states resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30.

The season-average farm price was reduced 10¢/bu. to $4.60, based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of the 2019-20 marketing year.