Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures closed higher for a consecutive second session, and for the week, helped along by stronger outside markets and ongoing bullish fundamentals.

Live cattle futures were an average of $1.18 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.44 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.92 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand in the North, through Fridy afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were a few live FOB trades in Nebraska at $237/cwt. and a few in the western Corn Belt at $236.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in Kansas at $240, mostly $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $236-$238 and mostly $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $236-$237. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$8 lower in Nebraska at $370.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $240 in the Texas Panhandle and dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $375-$378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.76 lower Friday afternoon at $382.05/cwt. Select was $1.39 lower at $359.92.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 552,000 head was 13,000 head fewer than the previous week and 62,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 21.1 million head was 1.6 million head fewer (-7.1%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated total beef production of 18.3 billion pounds was 824.9 million pounds less (-4.3%).

Soybean futures led the grain complex lower Friday, with none of the hoped for mention in trade talks with China.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 12¢ lower. Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Friday, buoyed by the Fed interest rate cut and led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 172 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 160 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 87¢ to 91¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Markets will likely view the latest Cattle on Feed report as neutral to favorable, with August placements on the lower side of expectations.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.78 million head in August, which was 196,000 head fewer (-9.9%) than the same time a year earlier.

In terms of placement weights, 35% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 46% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 19% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.57 million head were 248,000 head fewer (-13.6%) year over year and the least for the month since the data series began in 1996.

\Cattle on feed Sept. 1 of 11.08 million head were 118,000 head fewer (-1.1%).

Cattle futures regained some footing Thursday with some likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Depending on who you follow, August placements are estimated to be nearly 9% less year over year with August marketing down about 13% and the Sept. 1 cattle on feed inventory down nearly 1%.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.53 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.10 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to light on moderate demand in the North, through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Dressed delivered prices were $5-$8 lower in Nebraska at $370/cwt. FOB live prices there last week were mostly $240.

In the western Corn Belt, FOB live prices were steady to $3 lower at $237. Dressed delivered prices in the region last week were $375-$378.

Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $240 in Kansas. Prices in the Southern Plains last week were $240.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.37 lower Thursday afternoon at $385.81/cwt. Select was $5.06 lower at $361.31.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Thursday with harvest pressure, farmer selling and profit taking. 

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices road the coattails of the Fed interest rate cut higher on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 124 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 209 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 39¢ to 41¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected feeder steer prices significantly higher than the previous month in the September Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Based on recent price strength, projections increased $10 in the third quarter to $353/cwt. and $18 in the fourth quarter to $363 for an annual average of $323.79, which was $7 higher. ERS estimated prices $12 higher in the first and second quarters of next year at $360 and $362, respectively, for an annual average price of $362.25, which was also $12 higher. Prices are basis a Medium and Large #1 steer weighing 750-800 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS analysts noted the August weighted-average price at Oklahoma City was record-high at $355.55, which $20.46 more than the previous month and more than $121 higher year over year.

As noted in Cattle Current, the ERS raised expected average five-area direct fed steer prices, compared to last month, in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE), based on recent price strength.

Prices increased $2 in the third quarter to $240/cwt. and $4 in the fourth quarter to $244, for an annual average price of $228.56, which was $1.50 more. That was with beef production for this year estimated 100 million pounds less than the previous month at 25.8 billion pounds. The total would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.3%) than last year.

Prices for 2026 increased $5 in the first and second quarters to $247 and $248, respectively. The 2026 annual average price was also $5 higher at $249. Beef production for the year was estimated at 25.5 billion pounds, which would be 336 million pounds less (-1.3%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures continued lower Wednesday, hampered by wariness ahead of the Fed’s interest rate announcement and swift declines in wholesale beef prices.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $238-$239/cwt. Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt. in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $375-$378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.44 lower Wednesday afternoon at $388.18/cwt. Select was $6.80 lower at $366.37.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.04 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.51 lower.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower with likely increased farmer selling. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with key news being the widely anticipated Fed interest rate cut of a quarter-point.

“Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year,” according to the FOMC statement. “Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 72 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 52¢ to 67¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gave back some of the previous session’s gains with declining wholesale beef prices and the outlook for perhaps lower cash fed cattle trade again this week. Pressure may have also included USDA confirmation the previous day of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in a Nebraska dairy cattle herd.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 58¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.16 lower, except for 17¢ higher in near Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt. in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $375-$378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.91 lower Tuesday afternoon at $392.62/cwt. Select was $5.63 lower at $373.17.

Grain and Soybean futures bounced higher Tuesday, helped by reports of lower corn and soybean yields and the lower U.S. Dollar. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices eased lower Tuesday, with profit taking ahead of this week’s Fed decision about interest rates.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 125 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 91¢ to $1.26 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. Beef imports continue to rise with shipments from January through July totaling more than 3.4 billion pounds, up +30% (790 million pounds) from the same period last year, according to Livestock Marketeing Informatiom Center, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

“Available domestic supplies are expected to remain tight, which will likely continue the trend of higher beef imports,” AMS analysts say. “If so, this could contribute to lower available exportable beef supplies in the near term.”

Through the first seven months of this year, exports were 8% below last year in volume at 691,800 metric tons and down 7.5% in value at$5.67 billion, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

Cattle futures climbed back Monday as funds appeared to retrench following last week’s losses.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $4.42 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.81 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $240/cwt. and $2-$3 lower in the North at $240. Dressed delivered trade was $5-$8 lower at $375-$378.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $3.22 lower at $239.33/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $7.00 lower at $376.15.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.51 lower Monday afternoon at $398.53/cwt. Select however, was 36¢ higher at $378.80.

Turning to grain complex, futures turned lower on likely profit taking from the previous session’s gains. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were unchanged to fractionally lower. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks and positive comments from the White House regarding trade talks with China.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 49 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 30 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 207 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 50¢ to 65¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

“Beef prices remain strong, and beef demand is robust despite the availability of favorably priced alternative proteins,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. 

For perspective, Peel notes retail beef prices posted another record high in August, according to USDA data. The all-fresh retail beef price was 12.6% higher year over year, which was more than a dollar higher at $9.18 per pound. He adds that even as wholesale beef prices decline seasonally, last week’s value was 31.7% higher year over year, with all primal values higher for the period.

Conversely, Peel points out retail pork prices in August were lower month to month and 2.2% higher year over year. Retail broiler prices were fractionally higher compared to July and were 1.9% higher year over year.

“Moving into the fall, consumer demand shifts from a summer grilling focus to crock-pot cooking and increased restaurant visits,” Peel says. “This may slightly change relative values among beef products, but beef product demand continues strong at all levels.”

Cattle futures regained some ground Thursday. Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.17 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.03 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. So far this week, FOB live prices are $3-$4 lower at $238-$240/cwt. and dressed delivered prices are $8 lower at $375.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand.

FOB live prices this week are mainly $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $240. Dressed delivered prices in the region last week were $383.

Last week, FOB live prices were $242 in the Texas Panhandle and $242-$243 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.85 lower Thursday afternoon at $400.79. Select was $3.73 lower at $379.95.

Grain and Soybean futures bounced back Thursday, ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial closed higher Thursday with more traders apparently betting on the Fed cutting interest rates next week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 617 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 55 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 157 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.23 to $1.43 lower through the front six contracts.

Live Cattle futures firmed and clawed mostly higher Wednesday, while all but the front months drifted lower in Feeder Cattle.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.21 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.40 lower, except for an average of $1.06 higher in the front two contracts.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are mostly $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $240/cwt. and dressed delivered prices are $8 lower in Nebraska at $375.

Last week, FOB live prices were $242/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $242-$243 in Kansas and Nebraska. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.03 lower Wednesday afternoon at $405.64. Select was $3.28 lower at $383.68.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Wednesday with likely continued positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower, except for 2¢ higher in waning spot Sep. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, but with positive inflation data.

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1% in August, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was more favorable than the trade expected. On an unadjusted basis, however, the index for final demand rose 2.6% for the 12 months ended in August.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 220 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points. The NASDAQ was up 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 98¢ to $1.13 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Since 2022, calf prices have increased by 135.6%; feeder cattle prices are up by 107.4%; fed prices have increased 70.0%; boxed beef prices are up 59.2%; and retail prices have increased by 21.3%, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. However, he also points out the cost of inputs has increased more and faster than the value of outputs for all of the margin sectors — stockers, feedlot, packers and retailers.

“Up to this point, packers have faced most of the losses due to lousy buy-sell margins,” Peel says. “Feedlots have avoided much of the margin challenges thus far, largely due to the strongly up trending market combined with the time lag between placements and marketings (extended by more days on feed in most cases) and a sharp decrease in feed costs.  Feedlot cost of gain is down over 28% since the peak in early 2023.”

Stocker producers are being squeezed hard from both directions, Peel explains, as high calf prices increase stocker purchase cost and feedlots are competing more for limited feeder supplies, including lighter weight feeders due relatively low cost of gain. 

“Retailers have faced relatively less of the margin challenge up to this point due to strong consumer beef demand and ample beef supplies,” Peel says. “Beef production is declining faster now, and retailers will face more challenges as beef production continues to decline in the coming months.”

In the meantime, Peel says, “Cow-calf producers will continue to enjoy strong returns and the higher calf prices that encourage herd rebuilding.  Those higher calf prices will continue to work their way through the industry up to consumers in a complex set of market dynamics affecting the various sectors in a variety of ways.”

Cattle futures plunged Tuesday with technical correction, exaggerated by apparent fund selling and wariness over seasonal pressure on cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $5.93 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were limit down $9.25, except for $7.80 lower in the back contract.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to limited on light to moderate demand in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early dressed delivered trades in the North at $375-$382 and a few FOB live sales in the western Corn Belt at $237-$239.

Last week, FOB live prices were $242/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $242-$243 in the other regions. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.02 lower Tuesday afternoon at $407.67. Select was $1.62 higher at $386.96.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with likely profit taking and position squaring ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 196 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 80 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 47¢ to 57¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mostly higher Monday but hesitantly.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 58¢ higher, except for 22¢ lower in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 98¢ higher, except for 65¢ lower in away Sep.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $242/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $242-$243 in the other regions. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $1.05 less at $242.55/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $2.50 less at $383.15.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.07 lower Monday afternoon at $409.69. Select was 15¢ lower at $385.34.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Monday with likely short covering and positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 11¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 7¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 114 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 98 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 59¢ to 70¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Calves and feeder cattle continued to sell mainly higher last week. Keeping in mind the fewer business days due to the holiday, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) pegged the advance at mostly $5-$10 higher, with calf prices steady to $5 higher in some areas and $10-$12 higher in parts of the Southeast.

“In many areas producers are moving calves ahead of normal due to the record prices, and at the other end many are holding on as the upward trend continues …” according to AMS analysts.

Trade volume of 192,700 head at auction, direct and via video-internet was 1,000 head fewer than the previous weeks and about 24,000 head fewer than the same week last year.

The CME Feeder Cattle index was $2.56 higher week to week on Friday at $367.03.

“What may be more amazing than anything is that this market could easily continue increasing in the current environment. As cattle producers begin to retain heifers to grow the herd, there will be fewer feeder cattle available, which will restrict beef production despite the ever-increasing dressed weights,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the university of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “As producers navigate the high price environment, it is important to manage price risk and financial risk … The basic aspect that makes risk management more important today than a few years ago is the quantity of dollars necessary to play in the game.”

Cattle futures were softer again Friday with pressure from declining wholesale beef values and lower outside markets.

Live cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.34 lower, except for unchanged in spot Sep.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.60 lower and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.80 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $242/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $242-$243 and $2-$3 lower in the North at $242-$243. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2 lower at mainly $383.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.45 lower Friday afternoon at $410.76. Select was $2.58 lower at $385.19. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.65 lower and Select was $4.81 lower.

 Total cattle slaughter during the holiday-shortened week of 487,000 head was 78,000 head fewer than the previous week and 61,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 19.9 million head was 1.5 million head fewer (-7.0%) than the same time last year. Total year-to-date beef production of 17.4 billion pounds was 747.7 million pounds less (-4.1%).

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Friday with 

Corn futures unchanged to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Sep ’26 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday as concerns about the domestic economy ran ahead of optimism for interest rate cuts tied to a sluggish labor outlook.

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August and has shown little change since April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was also little changed at 4.3%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10¢ in August to $35.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 220 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 20 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 7 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.30 to $1.61 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Market access obstacles continued to weigh heavily on exports of U.S. beef, with the vast majority of plants still ineligible to ship to China, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

U.S. beef exports declined 19% year over year in July to 89,579 metric tons, and export value dropped 17% to $752.5 million, the lowest value since 2023, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the USMEF.

“The plant registration impasse with China unfortunately drags on, and it has left U.S. beef essentially shut out of the market after exporters worked through their eligible inventories,” explains Dan Halstrom USMEF president and CEO. “Demand elsewhere has remained fairly resilient, even in the face of higher pricing, but restoring access to China is clearly the urgent priority. Export value and share of production exported declined in July, reflecting the loss of competing bids from Chinese buyers.”

From January through July, exports were 8% below last year in volume (691,800 mt) and down 7.5% in value ($5.67 billion).

July beef exports equated to $368.09 per head of fed slaughter, down 12% from a year ago. Through July, the per-head average was down 4% to $403.89.