Daily Market Highlights

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 11, 2024

Cattle futures were strongly higher Tuesday, helped along by early indications of steady to higher cash prices.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.77 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher.      

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in Kansas through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady at $191/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive to a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190-$191 in the Texas Panhandle and $190-$192 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.41 lower Tuesday afternoon at $311.73/cwt. Select was 31¢ higher at $279.65.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Tuesday, benefiting from the friendly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower on Tuesday as investors await key inflation data this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 154 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 49 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were unchanged to marginally higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) left the fourth-quarter five-area direct fed steer price and the annual average 2024 price unchanged at $188/cwt. and $186.68, respectively, in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

For 2025, compared to the previous month’s projections, ERS left the first-quarter price unchanged at $188 but increased price projections by $2 in the second quarter to $189 and by $6 in the third quarter to $192 with an annual average price $3 higher at $191.

Without any official timeline for resuming live cattle exports from Mexico to the United States — due to New World Screw Worm — ERS analysts emphasize the latest WASDE projections assume export restrictions will remain in place indefinitely.

With the above assumption in mind, ERS reduced projected 2025 beef production, compared to the previous month’s estimate. ERS forecasts beef production next year to be 25.7 billion pounds, which was 615.3 million pounds less than the previous projection. Next year’s total would be 1.4 billion pounds less (-5.1%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 11, 2024 2024-12-10T18:14:27-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 10, 2024

Cattle futures were mostly higher Friday, supported by last week’s higher cash fed cattle trade and stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 45¢ higher, except for an average of 12¢ lower at either end of the board. Live Cattle futures were an average of 44¢ higher.

There was no Monday afternoon USDA fed cattle sale summary available at press time.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $191-$192 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $297. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $295.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer prices last week was 93¢ higher at $190.90. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was 57¢ higher at $297.21.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 higher Monday afternoon at $314.14/cwt. Select was $2.61 higher at $279.34.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower on Monday led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 240 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 123 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 80¢ to 98¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 10, 2024 2024-12-09T18:13:10-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 9, 2024

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, boosted by higher cash fed cattle prices and despite USDA announcing a National Milk Testing Strategy aimed at surveillance of the nation’s milk supply and dairy herds for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.04 higher. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ higher, except for an average of 20¢ lower in two contracts.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.84 lower (60¢ to $2.60 lower). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.15 lower during the same period.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light demand in other regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1-$3 higher on a light test in the Texas Panhandle at $191/cwt., $1 higher in Kansas at $191, steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $191-$192 and steady in the western Corn belt at $190.

Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $297, which was from $3 higher to $8 lower. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.20 higher Friday afternoon at $312.04/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $276.73.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 614,000 head was 24,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 29.4 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-3.6%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 24.9 billion pounds was 108.3 million pounds less (-0.4%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher, supported by weekly export sales and perhaps some betting on favorable adjustments in next week’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 1¢ higher through Dec ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Friday with positive news including a positive jobs report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, leaving the unemployment rate little changed at 4.2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13¢, or 0.4%, to $35.61. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 159 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to $1.10 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. beef exports were higher year over year in October, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

October beef exports totaled 105,269 metric tons (mt) in October, up 1% from a year earlier. Value increased 3% to $860.4 million. For January through October, beef export value was 4% above last year at $8.68 billion, despite a 2% decline in volume (1.066 million mt).

“It’s encouraging to see an uptick in demand for U.S. beef in China and Korea, where the economic headwinds have been formidable this year,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Our Western Hemisphere markets have been outstanding, and exports have also expanded to the ASEAN region. So, if U.S. beef can regain momentum in these larger Asian destinations, this bodes well for 2025.”

Beef exports to China/Hong Kong totaled 20,493 mt in October, up 16% from a year ago and the largest since June 2023. Export value climbed 17% to $190.6 million, also the highest since June 2023.

October beef exports to Korea — the leading value destination for U.S. beef — were the largest since April at 19,638 mt, up 5% from a year ago, while value climbed 10% to $191.7 million – the highest since March.

Beef export value equated to $380.98 per head of fed slaughter in October, down 2% from a year ago. The January-October average was $411.03, up 4%.

U.S. pork exports in October were 3% more year over year at 252,411 mt.  Value also increased 3% to $710.4 million.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 9, 2024 2024-12-08T14:02:53-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 6, 2024

Cattle futures weakened further Thursday sans weekly cash fed cattle direction and sluggish Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.88 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.66 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 49¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $307.84/cwt. Select was 60¢ lower at $277.10.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher, supported by weekly export sales that were 63% more than the previous week and 4% more than the prior-four-week average. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with apparent investor skittishness ahead of Friday’s national jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 248 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 34 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 8¢ to 12¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Given cow-calf profitability, hay production, hay prices and the current rates of beef cow and heifer slaughter, James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas expects to see a 1% decline in beef cow inventories this year.

In terms of profitability, Mitchell shares estimated cow-calf returns over cash costs provided by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“According to LMIC estimates, returns are projected at $622 per cow in 2024, making it the most profitable year on a nominal basis … surpassing the $534 per cow recorded in 2014,” Mitchell explains in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “However, comparisons are more meaningful when adjusted for inflation. When 2014 returns are converted to 2024 dollars, they equal $707 per cow, exceeding 2024 returns by $86 per cow.”

As for slaughter rates, beef cow slaughter — a measure of cow culling — is 18% less year over year, while heifer slaughter — a measure of heifer retention is 1.5% less, according to Mitchell.

“An important consideration is the slaughter rate relative to available supplies, rather than absolute cow and heifer slaughter numbers,” Mitchell says. “When viewed in this context, it becomes evident that the current slaughter rate has not yet reached a level signaling an increase in beef cow inventories. For example, in 2023 we slaughtered 12% of the beef cows that were available to slaughter as of January 1 (implied cull rate). In 2024, it looks like we will slaughter 10% of available beef cows. While this is an improvement, it still is not a low enough cull rate to signal an increase in beef cow numbers.”

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 6, 2024 2024-12-05T18:13:20-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 5, 2024

Cattle futures tracked lower Wednesday as traders await the week’s cash fed cattle direction and Choice wholesale beef values struggle.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.46 lower.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the North to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.50 lower Wednesday afternoon at $308.33/cwt. Select was $2.37 higher at $277.70.

Grain and Soybean futures continued mixed again Wednesday with overall pressure including the strength of the U.S. dollar and uncertainty related to the coming shift in presidential administrations.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, fueled by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 308 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 254 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.03 to $1.19 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Fewer available cattle and increased wheat pasture prospects are key drivers of recent calf price increases, according to David Anderson, Extension livestock economist with Texas A&M University,

“Lighter-weight, 400-500 pound calf prices have jumped about $30/cwt. in the Southern Plains over the last month,” Anderson explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Heavier 500-600 pound steers are up around $20 per cwt and 700-800 pound feeders are up about $80 per cwt over the same period in the Southern Plains. Seasonal lows in the calf market are in the rearview mirror for 2024. Calf prices do tend to increase, seasonally, in the late Fall.”

Anderson says, it’s too soon to say if the restriction on Mexican cattle imports is affecting cash prices on this side of the border.

“Price impacts will depend on how long import delays last,” Anderson says.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 5, 2024 2024-12-04T17:30:45-05:00

Cattle Current—Dec. 4, 2024

Cattle futures found some footing Tuesday, led by Feeder Cattle as the CME Feeder Cattle Index continued to rise — up about $5 in the last two days.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.68 lower Tuesday afternoon at $309.33/cwt. Select was $1.67 lower at $275.33.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed again Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices mainly paddled water at and near record levels Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 76 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 76 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.50 to $1.88 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Agricultural producer sentiment increased month to month in November, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index climbed 30 points to a reading of 145, the highest level since May of 2021. The Future Expectations Index jumped 37 points to 161, while the Current Conditions Index increased 18 points to 113.

Increased barometer readings reflect growing optimism about a more favorable regulatory and tax environment for agriculture following the U.S. election, according to barometer analysts.

The percentage of producers expecting their operation’s financial performance to improve over the next year climbed to 33%, up from 19% in October. Optimism about the U.S. agricultural sector also surged, with 34% of producers anticipating good times financially in the next 12 months, more than double October’s 15%.

To gain insight into how farmers’ sentiment might align with potential policy shifts following a change in presidential administrations, barometer surveys included several policy-related questions before and after the 2020 and 2024 elections.

In the wake of the 2024 election, farmers’ views on environmental regulations experienced a sharp reversal. In October, 41% of respondents anticipated a more restrictive regulatory environment over the next five years, while only 10% expected less restrictive regulations. However, the November survey saw a dramatic shift, with just 9% of surveyed farmers expecting stricter regulations and 55% predicting a more favorable, less restrictive regulatory landscape.

Similarly, 55% of respondents expected income tax rates to remain unchanged, compared to just 25% in 2020. Likewise, 57% of respondents in the November survey anticipated estate tax rates to stay the same over the next five years, a large increase from 28% in November 2020.

“While optimism is up, farmers are also expressing concerns about the potential risks to agricultural trade, with many fearing that a trade war could significantly impact U.S. exports,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Cattle Current—Dec. 4, 2024 2024-12-03T17:46:51-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 3, 2024

Cattle futures softened Monday, led by Feeder Cattle, perhaps pressured by profit taking.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.31 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ lower, except for an average of 20¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $190, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190-$192 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$190. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in Nebraska at $290 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.49 higher Monday afternoon at $313.01/cwt. Select was $2.70 higher at $277.00.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with the lion’s share of support centered on tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 128 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 185 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ to 18¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

With live cattle imports from Mexico to the United States expected to be suspended for at least three weeks — due to New World Screwworm — Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says more Mexican imports are unlikely this year.

“The lack of Mexican cattle imports for the remainder of the year will have some immediate impact reducing an already tight feeder supply. However, some of the feedlot impact is not immediate because a portion of the imported Mexican cattle are lightweight and typically go through stocker/backgrounding programs before feedlot placement,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “In the January – September period this year about 24% of the imported cattle were less than 200 kilograms (441 pounds). It’s important to remember that most of the cattle not imported for the remainder of the year will enter the U.S. eventually, just with a delay.”

Barring a prolonged border closure or permanent changes to import regulations, Peel says a change in timing with a short-term tightening of supply will be the primary impact on the domestic feeder cattle market.

For perspective, Peel says imports of cattle from Mexico to the U.S. were 21.3% more year over year through the first nine months of 2024, suggesting total imports for the year of about 1.5 million head. He adds that Mexican cattle imports represent 3.3% of the total U.S. calf crop on average. 

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 3, 2024 2024-12-02T18:33:46-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 2, 2024

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, with week-to-week gains supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.24 higher. Week to week, they were an average of $4.60 higher; an average of $11.51 higher over the past two weeks.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 51¢ higher (2¢ to 75¢ higher), except for 2¢ lower in spot Dec. Week to week they were an average of $1.19 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $190, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190-$192 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$190. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in Nebraska at $290 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 74¢ lower Friday afternoon at $310.52/cwt. Select was unchanged at $274.30. Week to week, Choice was $3.11 higher and Select was up $2.23.

Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 28.7 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.6%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production was 110.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices ended the week and month on a positive note at the end of the holiday-shortened trading session Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 157 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 51¢ lower to 72¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose 15 points month to month in November to 50.2. That was the first time the RMI was above growth neutral since July 2023.

“Yields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices,” says Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer.”

Among other RMI highlights…

  • Farmland prices sank for the sixth time in the past seven months. On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline by 2.7% over the next 12 months.

“Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below-breakeven grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” according to Goss.

  • The farm equipment sales index slumped to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016.

“This is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farm commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss says.

  • Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. However, the November confidence index increased to 46.4, its highest level since March 2022.

The RMI is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Cattle Current Daily—Dec. 2, 2024 2024-12-01T13:56:45-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Nov. 28-29, 2024

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate with good demand in all regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in all regions, which was $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle, $3-$4 higher in Kansas, $2-$3 higher in Nebraska and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices last week were at $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 31¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $311.26/cwt. Select was $1.19 lower at $274.30.

Cattle futures closed higher Wednesday, supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 88¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks. However, inflation news provided a bright spot. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.2% month to month in October, which was in line with expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 138 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 115 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ lower to 1¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Heifer slaughter data continues pointing to scant retention, if any, for herd expansion.

In fact, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says the percentage of heifers comprising the mix of total cattle slaughter this year will likely be the highest since 2004.

“Heifer retention usually lags changes in cow culling,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “Herd expansion results in decreased heifer slaughter rates similar to the 1991-1996 and the 2014-2017 periods.  Current heifer slaughter rates suggest that the beef cow herd has continued to decrease in 2024 and that prospects for herd expansion in 2025 are very limited.”

Although less year over year, Peel says cow slaughter continues at a non-expansion pace.

“Declining cull cow rates are often the leading indicator of producer herd rebuilding intentions,” Peel explains. “Beef cow slaughter is down 17.9% year over year in the first 45 weeks of 2024. This is projected to result in an annual culling rate of about 10%, roughly equal to the long-term average and down from the recent high over 13% in 2022. During herd expansion the cow culling rate typically drops below 9% for 3-4 years.”

Cattle Current Daily—Nov. 28-29, 2024 2024-11-27T17:31:31-05:00

Cattle Current Daily—Nov. 27, 2024

Feeder Cattle futures continued higher Tuesday, buoyed in part by the temporary suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico (see below).

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.74 higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 19¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 21¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186-$187/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $187-$188 in Nebraska and $186-$188 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $290-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.86 higher Tuesday afternoon at $311.57/cwt. Select was $1.75 higher at $275.49.

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed. Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices continued higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 119 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 20¢ to 25¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Temporary suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico to the U.S. — due to detection on New World Screwworm in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas — comes with plenty of market questions.

“Roughly 5% of feedlot placements this year have been imported feeder cattle from Mexico,” explain Extension livestock economists in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “The fall months are a seasonally high import period. If the ban on imports of feeder cattle lasts awhile, it would mean a lower supply of feeder cattle going into feedlots. Tight feeder cattle supplies would get tighter which would mean more support for prices.”

Unknowns, according to the economists, include if and where additional cases are identified, duration of the import restriction and whether the ban will continue to affect all imported cattle from Mexico or only those from specific regions.

Economists contributing to the Cattle Market Notes Weekly article are: Josh Maples, Mississippi State University; David Anderson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension; Charley Martinez, University of Tennessee.

On Tuesday, the Texas Cattle Feeders Association (TCFA) provided its members with current insights following a call with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) and others.

Among the TCFA summary points:

  • “USDA-APHIS’ goal is to reopen some of the cattle crossings in the next three weeks or so … The length of time it takes to reopen the crossings is largely dependent on how quickly Mexico moves.
  • “Crossings where cattle are inspected on the Mexican side of the border will reopen first. For now, that means the crossings in New Mexico and Arizona.
  • “USDA-APHIS is requiring that the Mexican government establish additional pre-export pens to verify the safety of Mexican cattle …”
Cattle Current Daily—Nov. 27, 2024 2024-11-26T17:57:03-05:00

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.

This Is A Custom Widget

This Sliding Bar can be switched on or off in theme options, and can take any widget you throw at it or even fill it with your custom HTML Code. Its perfect for grabbing the attention of your viewers. Choose between 1, 2, 3 or 4 columns, set the background color, widget divider color, activate transparency, a top border or fully disable it on desktop and mobile.