Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures were sharply higher Thursday, buoyed by stronger wholesale beef values and the prospects of steady to higher cash fed cattle trade again this week.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.79 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.47 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in the Southern Plains to a standstill in North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191/cwt., in the Southern Plains on a light test, $195-$195.50 in Nebraska and $195-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.41 higher Thursday afternoon at $320.39/cwt. Select was $2.02 higher at $288.77.

Grain and Soybean futures bounced higher Thursday, perhaps with short covering and perceived value buying.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 16¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 28 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 37¢ to 50¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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The Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral in December after advancing above growth neutral in November for the first time since July 2023. The index is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Month to month, the overall index sank 10.6 points to 39.6 in December, the 11th time this year the reading was below growth neutral. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“In retrospect, and based on bank CEO comments, there appears to have been a significant November upturn resulting from the surprising Trump election results,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “That positive bump disappeared in December as continuing weak grain prices and farm income losses weighed on a significant proportion of farmers in the region.”

Approximately one in four bankers reported that their local economy was either currently in a recession or would enter a downturn in 2025. The remaining three of four bankers expect slow growth but no recession for 2025.

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months, according to the RMI confidence index, which slumped to 37.5 from November’s weak 46.4.

Weak agriculture commodity prices and negative farm cash flow, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months drove the decline in confidence, according to Goss.

The region’s farmland index fell to 41.3 from November’s weak 44.4.

Month to month, the farm equipment sales index declined 0.3 points to 14.3, its lowest level since October 2016 and the 17^th consecutive month of settling below growth neutral.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Monday with traders appearing to view Friday’s Cattle on Feed report as neutral.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 31¢ higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 42¢ lower to an average of 11¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191/cwt., in the Southern Plains on a light test, $195-$195.50 in Nebraska and $195-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 42¢ higher at $194.73. The weighted averaged dressed delivered steer price was $2.20 higher at 305.64.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 13¢ higher Monday afternoon at $315.98/cwt. Select was 84¢ higher at $286.75.

The grain complex was mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 192 points.

Through late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 15¢ to 20¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle traded from $2/cwt. lower to $2 higher across the nation last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service with prices at or near record-high levels. Trade volume at auction, video-internet and direct was 243,000 head, which was 102,300 head more than the same week last year.

“Current high prices are reminiscent of the cyclical peak prices of 2014-15 with both having been provoked by drought exaggerated herd liquidations,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “However, some very important differences mean that the current situation will play out in a much different fashion going forward.”

Peel explains the previous herd expansion from 2014 to 2019 was sharp and rapid with high prices lasting about two years. He adds the pipeline of replacement heifers was building ahead of the expansion, making its degree and speed possible.

“With two years of high prices already in 2023-2024, there is no indication that cyclically high prices will be as short-lived as a decade ago,” Peel says. “The pipeline of replacement heifers has continued to be depleted to this point. The cattle industry has shown no signs of attempting to rebuild the herd yet and the process will be slower when it does happen. The peak prices in 2014-15 coincided with increased heifer retention that squeezed feeder supplies to the tightest levels. Since no heifer retention has occurred yet, the highest prices are ahead, possibly in 2025 but more likely beyond.”

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by rebounding outside markets and steady to higher cash fed cattle prices.  .

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.26 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.14 higher (62¢ higher at the back to $1.85 higher toward the front).   

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.00 lower ($1.00 to $3.62 lower). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.63 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light to moderate demand elsewhere, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in Kansas at $191/cwt., unevenly steady in Nebraska at $195-$195.50 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $195-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $305, which was steady to $5 higher in Nebraska and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt. FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $191-$192 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.84 lower Friday afternoon at $315.85/cwt. Select was $1.80 higher at $285.91.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 617,000 head was 8,000 head more than the previous week but 4,000 head less than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 30.6 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.6%) year over year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 26 billion pounds was 121.3 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Soybean futures were 10¢ to 13¢ higher through Aug ’26 and then mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher, supported by short covering. Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, boosted by a tamer inflation reading.

The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) was 2.4% higher year over year in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was less than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 498 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 196 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the latest monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.8 million head in November, which was 69,000 head fewer (-3.7%) year over year. That was 0.4% more than expectations ahead of the report.

Marketings in November of 1.7 million head were 26,000 head fewer (1.5%) than the same timer a year earlier. That was just fractionally more than pre-report estimates.

Cattle on feed Dec. 1 of 12 million head were 34,000 head fewer year over year, which was slightly lower than the previous year and in line with projections ahead of the report.

Cattle futures moved lower Thursday with the lack of weekly cash fed cattle trade direction and perhaps wariness over Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.97 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.81 lower.       

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to light on light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.85 higher Thursday afternoon at $320.69/cwt. Select was $1.44 lower at $284.11.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Thursday, with a bounce in Soybeans after recent aggressive selling.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 11¢ to 13¢ higher. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices firmed Thursday but appeared to remain in correction mode.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 19 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 73¢ to 89¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures softened Wednesday as wholesale beef values weakened, outside markets turned negative, and perhaps with some early positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand in Nebraska to inactive on very light demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.84/cwt. Select was $2.95 lower at $285.55.

Grain and Soybean closed lower again on Wednesday, once again led by Soybeans.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 24¢ to 26¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices sank sharply lower Thursday pressured by a more hawkish outlook for interest rates.

The Fed cut interest rates by another 0.25% on Wednesday, as was widely expected. However, the latest FOMC outlook suggests the potential for more restrictive cuts in 2025 than originally expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,123 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 178 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 716 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 8¢ to 37¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures firmed but closed mixed on Tuesday.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.80 higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed from an average of 21¢ lower, to an average of 19¢ higher.

Given the temporary suspension of Mexican cattle imports, and the timing late last month, it will be interesting to see how traders position ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the source, analyst estimates ahead of the report see November placements about 4% less year over year and marketings down about 2%, leaving cattle on feed Dec. 1 about even.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.74 lower Tuesday afternoon at $315.63/cwt. Select was $1.07 lower at $288.50.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday with apparent profit taking and repositioning ahead of the Fed’s next decision about interest rates on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 267 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 64 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 41¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Calf prices are ending the year on an extraordinarily strong note.

“Calf prices for 5- and 6-weight animals in the Southern Plains have advanced better than $50/cwt. in the last four weeks, and prices for 4- and 5-weight animals have moved further,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

Koontz points out calf price strength belies firming grain prices and the looming seasonal decline in wholesale beef values.

Likewise, while strong, Koontz views cash fed cattle prices as rangebound while steer carcass weights are averaging about 40 pounds more year over year with fed heifers following a similar trend. He says both the heavier weights and front-loaded fed cattle inventory will likely hang over the market.

“The calculated cattle on feed over 150 days has been larger than any of the proceeding years – other than 2020 – but this inventory has been moving lower through the summer and fall with exception of November,” Koontz explains. “The pipeline is full for the near term and less so into next year. But then there are first-quarter packer margins to navigate.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $191-$192/cwt, steady in Kansas at $191, $4-$6 higher in Nebraska at $196 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $193-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$8 higher in Nebraska at $300-$305 and $5-$8 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302-$305.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $3.41 higher at $194.31/cwt. The weighted averaged dressed delivered fed steer price was $6.23 higher at $297.21.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ higher Monday afternoon at $317.37/cwt. Select was $5.71 higher at $289.57.

Cattle futures closed lower Monday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.37 lower. Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 75¢ lower across a broad range with most of the pressure in the front three contracts.    

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with the most support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 110 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 247 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 60¢ to 71¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Currently-suspended cattle imports to the U.S. from Mexico — due to New World Screwworm — helped fuel feeder steer price expectations in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, compared to the previous month.

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the forecast feeder steer price by $5/cwt. in the fourth quarter of this year to $259. The annual average 2024 price increased $1.25 to $252.09. Those prices are basis 750-800 lb. Medium and Large No. 1 steers selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS increased next year’s projected feeder steer price by $13-$17 in the first three quarters to $265 in the first quarter, $270 in the second and $275 in the third. The projected annual average price for 2025 increased $14.50 to $272.50.

ERS analysts emphasize the projections are based on the border closure remaining in place, as there is no current date established for trade resumption.

As reported in Cattle Current last week, ERS elevated the month-to-month forecast fed steer price for 2025 in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

ERS left the first-quarter price unchanged at $188 but increased price projections by $2 in the second quarter to $189 and by $6 in the third quarter to $192 with an annual average price $3 higher at $191.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $191-$192/cwt, steady in Kansas at $191 and $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $195-$196/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $8 higher in Nebraska at $305 on a light test and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.15 higher Friday afternoon at $316.39/cwt. Select was $3.38 higher at $283.86. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.35 higher and Select was $7.13 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 5,000 head fewer than the previous week and 38,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 30 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.7%). Year-to-date estimated beef production of 25.5 billion pounds was 131.5 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Cattle futures closed mixed Friday, with Live Cattle supported by higher cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 66¢ lower. Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 93¢ higher in the front four contracts (22¢ to $1.52 higher) to an average of 21¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.09 higher ($1.25 higher at the back to $6.27 higher in spot Dec). During the same period, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.17 higher (from 55¢ higher at the back to $3.00 higher toward the front).    

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking and farmer selling.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 86 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 23 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 85¢ to $1.27 higher through the front six contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices climbed higher in the North Thursday where trade was slow with moderate to good demand through the afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Compared to last week, FOB live prices were $4-$5 higher in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $195-$196/cwt. For the week, dressed delivered prices are $8 higher in Nebraska at $305 on a light test and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

Trade in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon was mostly inactive on light demand. FOB live prices in Kansas earlier in the week were steady at $191. FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $190-$191.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.01 higher Thursday afternoon at $315.24/cwt. Select was $2.37 higher at $280.48.

Cattle futures softened Thursday, with some likely profit taking and despite higher cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.06 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 81¢ lower, except for unchanged in the spot contract.  

Grain and Soybean futures softened Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower with likely profit taking and farmer selling. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly fractionally mixed.

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday amid strong fundamentals and prospects for higher cash fed cattle trade this week.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.63 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 higher.  

There were some early FOB live prices at $193/cwt. in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt but too few to trend.

Established trade so far this week is steady at $191 FOB live in Kansas.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190-$191 in the Texas Panhandle and $190-$192 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 31¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $311.23/cwt. Select was $1.54 lower at $278.11.

Grain and Soybean futures firmed Wednesday, with follow-through support from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, offset by chart resistance in Corn.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Wednesday. Support included tech stocks and an inflation reading in line with expectations.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3% month to month in November on a seasonally adjusted basis,

according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 49 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 347 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.14 to $1.75 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA recently provided early-release Baseline Projections to 2034. After declining again this year, those projections see the beef cow herd declining further to 27.8 million in 2026, then growing to 30.6 million in 2031 before declining again.

USDA projects Oklahoma City feeder steers prices (750-800 pounds) to average $258.75 per cwt. in 2025 and then peak at $267.26 in 2026 before declining to $189.80 in 2031.

USDA forecasts the weighted average five-area direct fed steer price at $186.50 per cwt. in 2025 and then peaking at $196.49 in 2026 before declining to $150.65 in 2031.

Incidentally, USDA forecasts the farm price for corn at $3.90 to $4.30 per bushel during the projection period.