Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures continued to carve a sharp path lower Friday, as equity markets unwound with growing concerns of recession.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.02 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed average of $4.15 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand to inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $188/cwt., $2 lower to $7 higher in Kansas at $188-$195, $2 lower in Nebraska at $196 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $194-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ higher Friday afternoon at $313.77/cwt. Select was 29¢ lower at $297.17/cwt.

Short covering on profit taking earlier in the week helped Grain and Soybean futures close higher Friday. Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices continued sharply lower amid recession fears.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 114,000 in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was significantly less than expected. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 8¢ in July to $35.07. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 494 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 100 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 417 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.79 to $2.81 lower through the front six contracts.

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Overall, domestic consumer beef demand remains strong, says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his latest weekly market comments.

“The late summer and early fall will give the market an idea if consumers are going to continue spending discretionary dollars on beef at the elevated retail price level,” Griffith says. “Some would argue consumers are slowing down, but where they are getting that data is lost on me. That is not to say the market will not slow down, but at this point, I cannot point to the data that says it is.”

On the other side of the gate, Griffith notes the leverage feedlots are using to keep negotiated cash fed cattle prices propped higher despite seasonal tendencies.

“There will continue to be downside price risk the next two or three months, but such risk is beginning to look less daunting as time passes,” Griffith says. “There have certainly been a few hiccups that may strike a chord of fear, but it will dissipate. Cattle feeders have leverage and will maintain leverage due to reduced cattle availability.”

Cattle futures were sharply lower Thursday, weighed down by wobbly cash trade, technical selling, bearish outside markets and lower wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.84 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.97 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190 in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and $196-$198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.98 lower Thursday afternoon at $312.79/cwt. Select was $2.70 lower at $297.46/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 17,700 metric tons (2024) the week ending July 25 were 32% more than the previous week and 35% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly report. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Mexico and China.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.  

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher on likely short covering. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices fell hard Thursday, pressured by investor worries about a potential recession.

Weekly initial unemployment claims were higher than expected at 249,000. As well, the ISM manufacturing index was lower than expected in July, pointing to further economic contraction.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 494 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 75 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 405 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 68¢ to $1.02 lower through the front six contracts.

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Although beef cow slaughter is 16% less year over year through the first 28 weeks of the year, the rate of slaughter is comparable to last year, relative to beef cow inventories, says James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

“One reason for the large decrease in beef cow slaughter is we started with fewer beef cows this year,” Mitchell explains. “Through 28 weeks, beef cow slaughter reflects 5.5% and 6.4% of beef cow inventories in 2024 and 2023, respectively. Beef cow slaughter is down 294,000 head, but we started the year with 716,000 fewer beef cows compared to 2023.”

Mitchell adds that lower beef cow slaughter this year also reflects improved forage conditions and higher cattle prices.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday, awaiting the week’s cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 55¢ lower to an average of 29¢ higher with the most support in nearby months.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and $196-$198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $314.77/cwt. Select was $1.22 lower at $300.16/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were narrowly mixed Wednesday.  

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday supported by doveish Fed comments suggesting interest rate cuts could be on the table in September as inflation moderates and economic growth slows.

The latest, closely watched ADP^® National Employment Report™ pointed to slowing job and wage growth. Private sector employment increased by 122,000 jobs in July, less than expected, and annual pay was up 4.8% year-over-year, according to the report.

“With wage growth abating, the labor market is playing along with the Federal Reserve’s effort to slow inflation,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “If inflation goes back up, it won’t be because of labor.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 85 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 451 points.

Heading toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $2.90 to $3.76 higher through the front six contracts, supported by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral for the 11th consecutive month, according to the July survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Specifically, the region’s overall reading for July sank to 41.3, its lowest reading since November 2023. The June reading was 41.7.  The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports drove the decline, according to Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Among survey highlights:

• The farm equipment sales index for July plummeted to 19.0, its lowest level in more than seven years, and down from June’s 31.8. “This is the 12th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss says.
• On average, bankers expect farmland prices to drop by 3.4% over the next 12 months.
• Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The July confidence index slumped to 28.3, its lowest level this year, and down from June’s 29.2.

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed but mainly higher Tuesday.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 41¢ higher, except for 12¢ lower in three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 39¢ higher, except for 31¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $198 in Nebraska and $196-$198 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 33¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $314.48/cwt. Select was 14¢ lower at $301.38/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with continued pressure from the favorable weather outlook.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 16¢ to 30¢ lower.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday with the main pressure from tech stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 203 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 222 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 41¢ to 69¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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National pasture and range conditions continued on par year over year for the week ending July 28, according to the most recent USDA Crop Progress report, with 39% rated as Good (32%) or Excellent (7%). Likewise, 29% were rated as Poor (17%) or Very Poor (12%), which was the same as last year.

States with 45% or more of pasture in Poor or Very Poor condition included: New Mexico (50%), Oregon (49%), Virginia (64%), Washington (59%), West Virginia (65%) and Wyoming (57%).

“Drought in certain areas and improved conditions in other areas creates uncertainty to the feeder cattle and calf price outlook for this fall,” says Will Secor, Extension livestock economist at the University of Georgia, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “If drought incentivizes producers to bring more calves to market compared to normal, calf prices may see a more pronounced seasonal dip this fall in those areas, while still remaining high compared to recent history. However, in areas with good conditions, calf supplies may remain tight this fall, pushing prices higher than expected.”

Cattle futures stepped lower Monday with apparent technical selling.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.20 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.75 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1.50-$2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $190, $2 higher in Nebraska at $198 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $196-$198. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $312/cwt.

Last week’s weighted average five area direct FOB live steer price was $1.54 higher at $195.21/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.30 higher at $311.34.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.04 higher Monday afternoon at $314.81/cwt. Select was $4.06 higher at $301.52/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Monday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 49 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 12 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 91¢ to $1.28  lower through the front six contracts.

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Although Choice boxed beef prices have declined seasonally by 5.4% since July 4, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University notes they are 3.4% higher year over year.

“Beef tenderloin is the highest value beef cut and the price has been quite flat and lower year over year for much of 2024,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “This weakness is a bit concerning but the fall may provide an important indicator of tenderloin demand going into cooler weather and the seasonal pick up in restaurant traffic. In contrast, the other steak cuts have values that are generally at or above year-ago levels, including ribeye, strip loin, and top sirloin.”

While the majority of Chuck products are currently priced on par with last year or less, Peel says overall Chuck primal values are 6.6% higher year over year in July and Round primal values are nearly 21% higher, driven by less lean trim derived from non-fed beef production. He notes non-fed beef production is down about 13% so far this year.

“The current wholesale price of 90% lean trimmings is at a record level,” Peel says. “The market is attempting to make up for the shortage of lean beef in the non-fed market by pulling more lean beef from fed beef supplies. This mostly comes from several round cuts but also likely from the chuck mock tender (one of the few lean cuts in the Chuck). Markets always attempt to balance supply and demand and the increased arbitrage between fed and non-fed beef markets today is an indication of a very unusual market situation.”

Cattle futures closed mixed to higher Friday, buoyed by higher cash fed cattle prices and firmer wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from 13¢ lower to 28¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.13 higher with added support from lower Corn futures.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1.50-$2 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $190 and $2 higher in the North at $198. Dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $312/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.31 higher Friday afternoon at $313.77/cwt. Select was $2.35 higher at $297.46/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 600,000 head was 16,000 head more than the previous week but 16,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 17.9 million head was 833,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15.1 billion pounds was 236.9 million pounds less (-1.5%).

Grain futures closed lower Friday with likely profit taking, producer selling and a more favorable weather outlook.

Soybean futures closed 22¢ to 38¢ lower. Corn futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, supported by a favorable inflation reading.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% month to month in June was and was 2.5% higher year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was in line with expectations.

Between cooling inflation and stronger economic growth than expected, investors are growing more confident in interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 654 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 176 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 79¢ to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

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Besides their ongoing willingness to pay for beef at historically high retail prices, consumers also continue demanding higher quality.

“This point has been demonstrated and made evident the past couple of months when Prime grade beef prices have increased week over week, when other quality grades of beef declined the same week or when Prime grade beef price only experienced a small price decline when other grades of beef experienced larger price declines,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “To some degree, packers purchasing higher grading cattle tends to be a natural insulation or insurance to price changes in wholesale beef prices. Prime beef prices will still tend to move in the same direction as other beef prices, but they do not appear to have the same downside risk as other grades in the current market. As a reference point, the Prime beef cutout has averaged trading $22/cwt. higher than the Choice cutout the past three months.”

Cattle futures closed higher Thursday, supported by the prospects of steady to higher cash trade, as well as more favorable domestic economic growth than expected.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher across a wide range. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to inactive on very light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were som early live FOB sales in Kansas at $190/cwt.

Last week, live FOB prices were $188-$188.50 in the Texas Panhandle, 187-188 in Kansas and $196 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $312.46/cwt. Select was $1.15 higher at $295.11/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts Corn futures were mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 15¢ higher as traders applied more weather premium. However, Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower on bullish harvest reports and anemic export sales.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, with continued pressure from tech stocks but with support from more robust economic growth than expected.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter this year, according to the “advance” estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, and business investment. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 160 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 23¢ to 57¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Food price inflation is easing, according to data from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). Although retail food prices rose 0.9% during the first half of this year, it was significantly less than the year-over-year increase of 4.8% at the same time last year and the 1.9% average increase from 2003 to 2022.

“Compared with recent years, price growth slowed across categories partly because of economy-wide factors, such as reductions in supply chain congestion and softening consumer demand for goods, although price trends differ by food category,” ERS analysts say. “For example, prices for cereals and bakery products showed minimal growth since mid-2023, following strong price increases throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023. In contrast, the midyear inflation rate for meats in 2024 exceeded its growth in the first half of 2023.”

Cattle futures were mostly lower Wednesday, pressured by bearish outside markets and the lack of weekly cash direction.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ lower, except for unchanged to an average of 45¢ higher in the front three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.79 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were $188-$188.50/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, 187-188 in Kansas and $196 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 53¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $312.68/cwt. Select was $2.70 lower at $293.96/cwt.

Grain futures firmed Wednesday, while Soybean futures declined after recent gains.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally high to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 11¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Wednesday, as investors bailed out of tech holdings, and bellwethers like Tesla and Alphabet posted sub-par earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 504 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 128 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 654 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures extended gains Tuesday. Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.21 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.72 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were steady to 50¢ higher in the Texas Panhandle at $188-$188.50/cwt. steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $187-$188 and $2 lower in the North at $196. Dressed delivered trades were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 23¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.21/cwt. Select was $1.67 lower at $296.66/cwt.

Traders continued adding weather premium to Soybean futures Tuesday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 4¢ lower.     

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 10 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.08 to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

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Inventories of cattle on-feed longer than 90 and 120 days are above historical averages for several reasons, according to Rob Ziegler, Extension livestock economist at the University of Wyoming.

“Lower ration prices, coupled with high fed cattle prices, are incentives for producers to put weight on cattle,” Ziegler explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The increase in popularity of beef on dairy cattle, as shown by a reduction in veal, also contributes to increased days on feed.”

Although longer feeding periods and heavier carcasses have boosted beef production higher than originally anticipated, Ziegler notes third-quarter beef production is projected to be 5.6% less year over year.

Cattle futures strengthened Monday, helped along by positive outside markets and the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below), which indicated fewer placements than expected last month.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.05 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 54¢ higher, well off session highs, capped by advancing Corn futures. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live FOB prices were steady to 50¢ higher in the Texas Panhandle at $188-$188.50/cwt. steady to $1 lower in Kansas at $187-$188 and $2 lower in the North at $196. Dressed delivered trades were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was 57¢ lower at $193.67. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.56 lower at $310.04.

Choice boxed beef cutout value (p.m.): 39¢ lower at $313.44/cwt. Select was 47¢ lower at $298.33/cwt.

Soybeans led the grain complex higher Monday with short covering and apparent weather premium based on the global outlook.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 21¢ to 33¢ higher. Corn futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Monday, as investors bought back tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 127 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 280 points.

Heading into the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 4¢ to 25¢ lowermthrough the front six contracts.

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Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides further perspective to the recent monthly Cattle on Feed report in his weekly market comments.

“Although the feedlot inventory has been slow to decrease, feedlots have been placing fewer cattle as feeder supplies have dwindled in recent years,” Peel says.  “The total U.S. calf crop peaked in 2018 in the most recent cattle cycle and has been declining each of the past five years. The 2024 calf crop is estimated to be another 1.5% smaller year over year leading to a total decline since 2018 of 8.9% or 3.2 million head.”

While marketings in June were 8.7% less year over year, Peel explains average daily marketing were slightly higher when accounting for two less business days this year than last.

Peel also points out the percentage of heifers in the on-feed mix July 1 was near the highest level in the past 20 years at 40%.

“The heifer percentage of feedlot inventories drops below the average level (36.7%) during periods of heifer retention and herd rebuilding and is above average during periods of herd liquidation,” Peel explains.