Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday as traders waited the monthly Cattle on Feed report, which will likely be viewed as neutral to slightly bearish (see below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 29¢ lower except for 2¢ higher in spot Aug. Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 49¢ higher in the front three contracts to an average of 62¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.69 lower (22¢ to $2.92 lower). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 lower week to week (20¢ to $3.37 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt. and generally steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187.50. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295 in a light test.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $185 in Kansas and $190 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.35 higher Friday afternoon, at $317.34/cwt. Select was $1.57 lower at $300.46.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 608,000 head was 6,000 head more than the previous week, but 18,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 20.3 million head was 893,000 head fewer (-4.2%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 17.1 billion pounds was 226.2 million pounds less (-1.3%).

Grain futures continued to leak lower Friday, while Soybean futures gained on increasing export demand.

Soybean futures were 8¢ to 11¢ higher. Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then unchanged to 1¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed 6¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by comments from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, pointing to interest rate cuts.

“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” according to Powell, who was speaking at the closely watched economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

“Four and a half years after COVID-19’s arrival, the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading,” Powell explained. “Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 462 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 258 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.45 to $1.82 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s Monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish with more placements than expected. Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in July, which was 94,000 head more (+5.8%) than the previous year, about 2% more than the average of analyst expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 38% went on feed weighing less than 699 lbs., 46% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 16% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.9 million head were 133,000 head more (+7.7%) year over year, but 0.5% less than expectations.

Cattle on Feed Aug. 1 of 11.1 million head were 31,000 head more (+0.3%) more than the previous year, which was in line with expectations.

Short covering on Thursday, ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report appeared to be the main driver of firming Cattle Futures. Heading into the close Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.22 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.89 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $183/cwt. and generally steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187.50. Dressed delivered prices are $3-$6 lower in Nebraska at mostly $295 and $3 lower in the western Corn belt at $293-$295 in a light test.

Last week, FOB live prices were $185 in Kansas and $190 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 78¢ higher Thursday afternoon, at $315.99/cwt. Select was 95¢ higher at $302.03.

Grain and soybean futures were lower Thursday pressured by positive weather and yield estimates.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly were 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 18¢ to 22¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by tech stocks and rising treasury bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 177 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 50 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 299 points.

At late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 72¢ to $1.05 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered the expected third-quarter feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) by $2 to $261/cwt. in the August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. That was based on recent price weakness. This year’s projected average also declined by $2 to $256.50. However, the estimated fourth-quarter average price of $268 was unchanged, as was next year’s projected average of $262.50.

As mentioned recently in Cattle Current USDA increased the projected the average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, based on recent demand for fed cattle that was stronger than expected. Compared to the previous month’s estimates, in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. ERS increased projected prices by $3 in the third quarter to $193/cwt. and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $190 for an annual average of $188.11, which was $1.25 higher.

This year’s beef production was projected 81 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.7 billion pounds, based on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights.

ERS projected fed steer prices next year at $188 in the first quarter and $190 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $191.

Beef production for 2025 was lowered by 20 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter. Next year’s projected total would be 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.8%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday, supported by positive outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.67 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.05 lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.88/cwt. Select was 11¢ lower at $300.50/cwt.

Toward the close on Wednesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices maintained their strength Wednesday, supported one again by a tamer than expected inflation reading.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after declining 0.1% in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 242 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 4 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were slightly higher through the front six contracts.

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Calf numbers will be relatively tight this fall, and likely expensive, especially if there is wheat pasture to keep stocker demand strong, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Plus, Peel explains feedlot cost of gain has declined and will likely decline further, giving feedlots wider berth to compete for stocker cattle amid limited supplies.

“Feedlots are expected to place some feeder cattle that are lighter weight than usual as they attempt to maintain feedlot inventories. In the current market environment, prices across the spectrum of feeder cattle prices by weight generally suggest that stocker producers are increasingly relegated to the small end of feeder cattle. The basic signal is for stocker producers to purchase lighter cattle and turn them over more quickly,” Peel says. “In general, the market signals are to move limited feeder cattle supplies through the system more intensively to keep beef production as high as possible with fewer cattle. This does not mean that other stocker programs, e.g. owning cattle longer and putting on more weight, will not work but will require careful planning at the outset.”

Cattle futures gained Tuesday, supported by positive outside markets and firmer wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.43 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$187 in Kansas, mostly $193 in Nebraska and $190-$193 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 higher Tuesday afternoon at $316.93/cwt. Select was 44¢ higher at $300.61/cwt.

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday, pressured by favorable weather and the outlook for high yields, in tandem with anemic export demand.

Toward the close on Tuesday, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 20¢ to 23¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Tuesday, supported by less wholesale price inflation than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 90 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 407 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 27¢ to 43¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were unable to extend gains from the previous session, apparently pressured once again, in part by demand concerns.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.79 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt. and mostly $2-$3 lower in Kansas at $185-$187, where live delivered prices were $190-$190.50. FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and mainly $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $193. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $305.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $3.11 lower at $191.34. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $5.59 lower at $304.01.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.12 higher Monday afternoon at $315.83/cwt. Select was $1.58 higher at $300.17/cwt.

Turning toward the close on Monday, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ higher with support from lower than expected carryover in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Through Jly ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 12¢ to 16¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mainly narrowly mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 140 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 35 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.71 to $2.82 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected five-area average direct fed steer prices for this year, based on recent demand for fed cattle that was stronger than expected. Compared to the previous month’s estimates, in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), ERS increased projected prices by $3 in the third quarter to $193/cwt. and by $2 in the fourth quarter to $190 for an annual average of $188.11, which was $1.25 higher.

This year’s beef production was projected 81 million pounds more than the previous month at 26.7 billion pounds, based on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offset lighter dressed weights.

ERS projected fed steer prices next year at $188 in the first quarter and $190 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $191.

Beef production for 2025 was lowered by 20 million pounds to 25.4 billion pounds, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter. Next year’s projected total would be 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.8%) than this year’s projected total.

Other WASDE Highlights

The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook was for larger supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production for 2024/25 was forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from last month as a decline in harvested area of 700,000 acres was more than offset by increased yield. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast of 183.1 bushels per acre would be a record-high and was 2.1 bushels more than the previous month’s projection.

The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $4.20 per bushel.

Cattle futures closed higher with week-end positioning and positive outside markets but were lower week to week, unable to recover from the early-week meltdown.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.92 higher (77¢ to $3.12 higher). However, they were an average of about $2.44 lower week to week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.77 higher Friday but were an average of $6.22 lower week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $186-$193 in Kansas, where live delivered prices were $190-$190.50. FOB live prices were $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $190-$193. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Friday afternoon at $312.71/cwt. Select was 56¢ higher at $298.59/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures continued lower Friday ahead of Monday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates with many expecting increased yields.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to rebound Friday from the steep early-week selloff, buoyed by a positive employment reading.

Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims were less than expected at 233,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 51 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 85 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 47¢ to 65¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Beef continues to flex its muscle as consumers’ animal protein of choice, given demand at historically high retail prices.

“In June, the Choice retail price of beef was $8.12 per pound which was 2¢ lower than June 2023. The all-fresh retail price of beef was $8.00 per pound, which was 42¢ more than June 2023,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It is clear consumers want and demand beef, but competing meat prices also play a role in what consumers do.”

For instance, Griffith explains the retail pork price in June was 20¢ higher year over year at $4.88 per pound and the retail broiler price was 5¢ higher at $2.01 per pound.

“Given price relativity, the all-fresh retail price of beef is up 5.6% while the pork price only increased 4.2% over the same time period,” Griffith says. “Consumers will consider this price relativity when making purchasing decisions, but it is clear beef is the preferred meat protein.”

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday with pressure from lower cash fed cattle prices and softening wholesale beef values.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.13 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.89 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to limited or light on moderate demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and mostly $186-$193 in Kansas. FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $193. Dressed delivered prices are $5 lower at $305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.73 lower Thursday afternoon at $312.12/cwt. Select was 80¢ lower at $298.03/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures were lower again Thursday with pressure from bullish production weather.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower through Jly ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Thursday, as investors continued adjusting to the early-week selloff.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 683 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 119 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 464 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 89¢ to 96¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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June exports of U.S. beef reached the highest value in nearly two years, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 110,155 metric tons (mt) in June, down 4% from a year ago but the second largest of 2024. Export value reached $938.3 million, up 3% year-over-year and the highest since August 2022. Through the first half of the year, beef export value climbed 5% from a year ago to $5.22 billion, despite a 4% decline in volume (643,733 mt).

“June beef exports performed very well in Japan, which was great to see given the significant headwinds U.S. beef has faced there this year,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Export value also rebounded nicely in Korea and shipments to Taiwan and Canada were outstanding. This made for another strong month in terms of export value per head slaughtered, which was nearly $460 in June.”

U.S. beef export value equated to $459.21 per head of fed slaughter in June, up 13% from a year ago. The January-June average of $418.37 per head was 6% more than the first half of 2023.

June U.S. pork exports totaled 224,392 mt, down 9% from a year ago and the lowest since September, while export value fell 5% to $659.7 million. However, January-June volume was 3% more than the first half of 2023, while export value increased 5% to $4.26 billion.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $3 lower in Nebraska at $193/cwt. and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $193. There were a few trades in Kansas at $190.50 but too few to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188 in the Texas Panhandle and $188-$195 in Kansas. Dressed delivered prices were $310.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.96 lower Wednesday afternoon at $313.85/cwt. Select was 79¢ lower at $298.83/cwt.

Cattle futures continued to grind for support from the recent selloff Wednesday as early cash fed cattle prices eroded.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 30¢ higher, except for an average of 4¢ lower in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of 88¢ lower.

Grain and soybean futures closed lower Wednesday with pressure from promising yields. The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates are due out Monday.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ lower.    

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 234 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 40 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 171 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.51 to $2.27 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures tried for gains early in Tuesday’s session, in the wake of the recent selloff but ended mainly slightly lower.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 32¢ lower except for an average of 33¢ higher in three contracts. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of 36¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher at the back.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill elsewhere through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $187-$195 in Kansas, $196 in Nebraska and $194-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $310/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value $2.13 lower Tuesday afternoon at $315.81/cwt. Select was 44¢ lower at $299.62.

Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 17¢ lower.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday amid a relief rally from steep declines during the last three sessions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 294 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 53 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 166 points.

Toward the close, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were little changed through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment improved in July despite financial performance concerns, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall index rose 8 points to 113, the Index of Current Conditions increased by 10 points to 100, and the Index of Future Expectations rose 7 points to 119 from a month earlier.

“Declines in crop prices point to lower producer incomes this year, so the increase in optimism was somewhat puzzling,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Fewer producers citing rising interest rates as a primary concern for the upcoming year corresponds with the modest improvement in their perspectives on capital investments, but respondents continue to express hesitancy to make large investments.”

High input costs remained the primary concern for a majority of respondents, followed by the risk of lower crop and livestock prices.

This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from July 15-19.

Cattle futures sank lower again Monday, tracing the selloff in outside markets.

Before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.58 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed were average of $6.57 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $188/cwt., $2 lower to $7 higher in Kansas at $188-$195, $2 lower in Nebraska at $196 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $194-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $2 lower at $310/cwt.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 76¢ lower last week at $194.45/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $1.74 lower at $309.60.

Wholesale beef prices did rebound Monday, with Choice boxed beef cutout value $4.17 higher in the afternoon at $317.94/cwt. Select was 85¢ higher at $282.34.

Grain and soybean futures extended gains Monday. Heading into the close, through Jly ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 11¢ to 15¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower again Monday with continued recession fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,033 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 160 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 576 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 29¢ to 64¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite the smallest beef cow herd at the beginning of this year since 1961 and record cattle prices the last couple of years, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says there continues to be little indication of herd expansion.

“Beef cow slaughter is sharply lower, down nearly 16% year over year thus far in 2024,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “However, that level of beef cow slaughter, combined with the low beef replacement heifer inventory in 2024 implies that the beef cow herd continues to liquidate by another 0.5-1.0% in 2024. Beef cow slaughter would have to drop by roughly 22% year over year to avoid additional liquidation this year.”

Moreover, Peel notes beef replacement heifer inventories in recent years mean that there is no pipeline or momentum for herd expansion compared to previous expansions. He adds the threat of continuing or redeveloping drought is stalling rebuilding efforts.

“The beef cattle industry is smaller than needed and signals for rebuilding will continue and grow in coming months. However, herd rebuilding is likely to be slow to start and proceed quite slowly initially,” Peel says.